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Post by celo on Feb 28, 2018 10:15:36 GMT -5
If they go from 9 million to 25 to 30 million this year in net revenue as forecasted, that would be about a 3x jump. If they do another 3x jump next and go to 75 to 90 million they should be close to being out of the red. At that point, hopefully no more dilution or a lot less.
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Post by digger on Feb 28, 2018 10:16:36 GMT -5
I have listened to a lot of these calls for a lot of years and IMO this was the best I have heard. I think today marks a turning point for the company. The biggest news I heard on the call was they found the 60+ studies which Al Mann did and Dr. Kendall not only read them but is putting a plan together to release them. That is huge. While he did not say it I suspect these studies had a great deal to do with why Dr. Kendall came to MNKD. Al left no stone un-turned and concluded afrezza should be the standard of care for all T2s from the first day they are diagnosed. Where were these 60 studies, with the Dead Sea Scrolls? In a way Dr. Kendall dissed his predecessors as well as MNKD's past management. He seems to imply that all this supportive data was there but no one had enough sense to use it. |
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Post by liane on Feb 28, 2018 10:31:36 GMT -5
I don't know about a diss, but he certainly knows the goldmine when he sees it.
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Post by careful2invest on Feb 28, 2018 10:37:11 GMT -5
I have listened to a lot of these calls for a lot of years and IMO this was the best I have heard. I think today marks a turning point for the company. The biggest news I heard on the call was they found the 60+ studies which Al Mann did and Dr. Kendall not only read them but is putting a plan together to release them. That is huge. While he did not say it I suspect these studies had a great deal to do with why Dr. Kendall came to MNKD. Al left no stone un-turned and concluded afrezza should be the standard of care for all T2s from the first day they are diagnosed. If only I had a nickle for every turning point we've had with this company. Unfortunately, many of the previous turning points were negative, but things are different now. |
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Post by peppy on Feb 28, 2018 10:45:53 GMT -5
I didn't remember hear anything about a projected burn rate, did I miss something?. yep. |
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Post by careful2invest on Feb 28, 2018 10:49:47 GMT -5
Dilution is the only way the company can generate significant income, enough to keep the company afloat anyway. They can't do it through sales and they can't do it through partnerships. The company has diluted shareholders consistently over the last two years and I don't expect it to stop anytime soon, as the company is nowhere near profitable and likely won't be for several more years. Investors had better get accustomed to dilution. Those new shares everyone voted for a few months ago appear to be planned for issuance by the way of secondary offerings and employee stock options. Not very beneficial for existing shareholders but again, the prospects of dilution should not be taking anyone by surprise anymore, sadly enough. Can't do it through partnerships? That is just not true! Mike has even mentioned about partnerships with money upfront. Dr. Kendall has only worked for MNKD for 12 full days. Give them some time. The tide is turning! GLTA! |
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Post by digger on Feb 28, 2018 10:56:12 GMT -5
I don't know about a diss, but he certainly knows the goldmine when he sees it. Maybe, but I don't believe that his predecessors and previous management could have been all that incompetent to have overlooked a "goldmine." |
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Post by derek2 on Feb 28, 2018 11:08:29 GMT -5
I was pleased with the presentation. Getting pretty close to professional. Other than the obvious proofreading errors on the slides, I found a lot to like.
1. The CFO brought up a well-thought-out metrics dashboard, and talked about measuring and optimizing utilization of capital. Remember when a former CFO couldn't even quote the share count? Remember when we were told that COGS accounting was too complicated to tell us about? This is obviously better.
2. Timelines are realistic and show good transparency. e.g. pediatric approval expected in 2020 / 2021 but this team actually states that and integrates it in their strategy.
3. No eternally dangling carrots or "to the mooooon" inflection point teasing. A challenging but possible revenue guidance, and no pretending that lower would be just fine. Working a growth strategy.
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Post by seanismorris on Feb 28, 2018 11:15:34 GMT -5
I don't know about a diss, but he certainly knows the goldmine when he sees it. I definitely heard the “diss” he said MannKind’s management completely dropped the ball with regards to dosing. From the get go, patients were not giving a high enough dose to be effective. To get patients an optimal dose, patients needed to monitor their levels (often times by themselves) and ‘figure it out’. Even if patients knew of the possibility that they’d need to make adjustments, because of the unit cartridge size, the adjustments are often in 30%+. That’s scary without really knowing how Afrezza works. Instead of adjusting the dosage, they used an ineffective amount and didn’t renew their prescription. The positive is the new dosing studies are going to fix that... The downside is marketing (&scripts) aren’t going to be advancing rapidly for a while... so cash (dilution) was needed. That’s what I heard. The problem is the Label change was supposed to address dosing. So why is this an ongoing issue? The reason to give them (new management) the benefit of the doubt, is the previous CEO’s were a ‘finance’ guy, proceeded by a ‘build it’ guy. With that in mind, the new ‘medical’ guy hire is a big deal. |
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Post by peppy on Feb 28, 2018 11:35:23 GMT -5
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Post by silentknight on Feb 28, 2018 12:01:18 GMT -5
Dilution is the only way the company can generate significant income, enough to keep the company afloat anyway. They can't do it through sales and they can't do it through partnerships. The company has diluted shareholders consistently over the last two years and I don't expect it to stop anytime soon, as the company is nowhere near profitable and likely won't be for several more years. Investors had better get accustomed to dilution. Those new shares everyone voted for a few months ago appear to be planned for issuance by the way of secondary offerings and employee stock options. Not very beneficial for existing shareholders but again, the prospects of dilution should not be taking anyone by surprise anymore, sadly enough. Can't do it through partnerships? That is just not true! Mike has even mentioned about partnerships with money upfront. Dr. Kendall has only worked for MNKD for 12 full days. Give them some time. The tide is turning! GLTA! If the company believed or expected significant up front money to be imminent, either through sales or through partnerships, why would they have the need for another $50 million dollars through a placement with Cantor Fitzgerald? Dilution is typically used to fund M&A activities or, unfortunately in the case of MNKD, the only way the company has to keep the lights on or pay debt. Look back over the recent SEC filings of MNKD and you be the judge on why the dilution has occurred. There has been talk of partnerships for years and the only one they have to show for it, BIOMM, didn't provide anything up front. That doesn't mean it doesn't have value, but their partnerships to date have done nothing to fund the company's operations. Empty promises are worthless and won't do much to help the company's bottom line. I'll believe a partnership, on good terms, that helps MNKD when I see it. We'll see how long it takes Mike to finalize any new deals. Personally, I don't expect any significant money to flow in in the near terms. As for Dr. Kendall, his job isn't to close deals. It's to move the pipeline along and present evidence that can get physicians to finally buy into prescribing Afrezza in a significant way. He's got his work cut out for him but I hope he can do it better than Dr. Urbanski or any member of the MNKD executive team has done this far. |
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Post by akemp3000 on Feb 28, 2018 12:19:19 GMT -5
Mike C said they have a term sheet in hand for an international partner that includes upfront and milestone payments and this will announced when details are finalized in the first half of 2018. They also have a second term sheet either in hand or being finalized that will likely be announced in the second half of 2018. Additionally Biomm is expected to start at the beginning of 2019. While we don't yet know all countries or values, these facts are as clear as could be made at this time. Definitely heading in the right direction!
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Post by wgreystone on Feb 28, 2018 12:57:52 GMT -5
If they go from 9 million to 25 to 30 million this year in net revenue as forecasted, that would be about a 3x jump. If they do another 3x jump next and go to 75 to 90 million they should be close to being out of the red. At that point, hopefully no more dilution or a lot less. Totally agreed. I'd be happy if they can hit 30m this year. Next year will be close to break even if MNKD can sign another international deal this year and increase factory production. |
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Post by lurker on Feb 28, 2018 14:30:24 GMT -5
Can't do it through partnerships? That is just not true! Mike has even mentioned about partnerships with money upfront. Dr. Kendall has only worked for MNKD for 12 full days. Give them some time. The tide is turning! GLTA! If the company believed or expected significant up front money to be imminent, either through sales or through partnerships, why would they have the need for another $50 million dollars through a placement with Cantor Fitzgerald? Dilution is typically used to fund M&A activities or, unfortunately in the case of MNKD, the only way the company has to keep the lights on or pay debt. Look back over the recent SEC filings of MNKD and you be the judge on why the dilution has occurred. There has been talk of partnerships for years and the only one they have to show for it, BIOMM, didn't provide anything up front. That doesn't mean it doesn't have value, but their partnerships to date have done nothing to fund the company's operations. Empty promises are worthless and won't do much to help the company's bottom line. I'll believe a partnership, on good terms, that helps MNKD when I see it. We'll see how long it takes Mike to finalize any new deals. Personally, I don't expect any significant money to flow in in the near terms. As for Dr. Kendall, his job isn't to close deals. It's to move the pipeline along and present evidence that can get physicians to finally buy into prescribing Afrezza in a significant way. He's got his work cut out for him but I hope he can do it better than Dr. Urbanski or any member of the MNKD executive team has done this far. I would think the additional cash raised would be essential in a deal with a partnership/takeover as it keeps the company in a preferable position to be able to survive without the deal going through. Another assumption would be any upfront payment not from the prospective partner would go towards advertising as they were trying to focus on growth of scripts. That call was missing some key points for me as I would like to hear about the market placement from the CEO on a conference call not a SEC doc. Another assumption is the reason for short notice on the call was the broker wanted it to come out before he announced the placement. |
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Post by Chris-C on Feb 28, 2018 14:42:39 GMT -5
I was pleased with the presentation. Getting pretty close to professional. Other than the obvious proofreading errors on the slides, I found a lot to like. 1. The CFO brought up a well-thought-out metrics dashboard, and talked about measuring and optimizing utilization of capital. Remember when a former CFO couldn't even quote the share count? Remember when we were told that COGS accounting was too complicated to tell us about? This is obviously better. 2. Timelines are realistic and show good transparency. e.g. pediatric approval expected in 2020 / 2021 but this team actually states that and integrates it in their strategy. 3. No eternally dangling carrots or "to the mooooon" inflection point teasing. A challenging but possible revenue guidance, and no pretending that lower would be just fine. Working a growth strategy. --------------------------------------------------------------- I agree. I missed the call during realtime yesterday, so had to wait and access it once it was posted and I could take notes and see the slides. Based on much of the chatter on the board, the prevailing tone seemed to be that the call was a disaster. I'm glad I took the time to do my own due diligence. These were my key takeaways: 1. Last year, they took the time to develop a plan based on what they are learning from the market, both in terms of advertising and sales as well as dosing. They have taken what they learned and built a strategy based on that, which includes positioning Afrezza in the marketplace as a mealtime insulin that improves time in range. They now know much more about effective dosing, how best to help patients titrate for success, and they have incorporated changes into their educational efforts, packaging and sales strategies to benefit from this knowledge. 2. A key part of Mike's 2017 strategy was to create a viable financial runway to enable improved patient and provider education and market awareness. Debt restructuring seems to have been a key focus. They are realistic about what they need to do and how long it will take. Clearly, dilution will be necessary. given sales projections. Any cash payments from partners will be positive developments; but should not be seen as a key part of the strategy. 3. They learned a great deal of useful information from the pilot DTC commercials, and they are still digesting that information before embarking on further marketing. 4. Data available for this board (IMS script counts) does not provide a complete picture of sales progress or success.They know that early winter months are difficult, showing the same pattern as earlier years, but with less of a downturn. Hand wringing about sales based on this year's data is premature. (This was helpful). 5. Dr. Kendall is an important team acquisition. Mike commented at the end that he now has what he considers the best team he's ever worked with. Considering the source, this is an optimistic statement for an investor. Kendall's resume speaks for itself. That he looked beneath the kimono and decided to join Mannkind must be viewed as another positive for long term investors. He knows things we don't know and he has bought into the paradigm, which seems to be using real time control approaches and TIR as a key success metric for diabetes care in the future. Periodic HbA1C measures for the effectiveness of insulin use are outdated. Dr. Kendall reminded us that insulin has been in use for 95 years, and it's time to take a fresh look at improving its effectiveness as a treatment option. 6. The company still has plans for other applications of the technosphere technology.7. They have active discussions underway with potential International partners8. Pediatric trials continue to progress and will be an added revenue addition if and when a label change occurs to permit care to this segment.9. They have taken what they've learned to improve packaging, both for improved titration as well as improved sales.So my conclusions are as follows. They have a competent leadership team, they have a well considered plan, and they are trying to be smart about how they use limited resources to move toward profitability. No projections were made on this, but IMO a reasonable investor might expect profitability in 2H 2019, possibly earlier depending on partnerships. They definitely did not seem to be making unrealistic projections for the sake of the audience. I do think it is important for someone at MNKD to review slides and talking points to eliminate errors before calls. I have no problem with limiting the number of questions at the end, as Q&A sessions leave too much room for speculation and false expectations. Overall, I'm relieved that the call was not the disaster that many naysayers here claimed it was. I'm holding on to my shares. Good luck to all longs. Chris C |
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