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Post by lurker on Feb 28, 2018 15:05:07 GMT -5
I was pleased with the presentation. Getting pretty close to professional. Other than the obvious proofreading errors on the slides, I found a lot to like. 1. The CFO brought up a well-thought-out metrics dashboard, and talked about measuring and optimizing utilization of capital. Remember when a former CFO couldn't even quote the share count? Remember when we were told that COGS accounting was too complicated to tell us about? This is obviously better. 2. Timelines are realistic and show good transparency. e.g. pediatric approval expected in 2020 / 2021 but this team actually states that and integrates it in their strategy. 3. No eternally dangling carrots or "to the mooooon" inflection point teasing. A challenging but possible revenue guidance, and no pretending that lower would be just fine. Working a growth strategy. --------------------------------------------------------------- I agree. I missed the call during realtime yesterday, so had to wait and access it once it was posted and I could take notes and see the slides. Based on much of the chatter on the board, the prevailing tone seemed to be that the call was a disaster. I'm glad I took the time to do my own due diligence. These were my key takeaways: 1. Last year, they took the time to develop a plan based on what they are learning from the market, both in terms of advertising and sales as well as dosing. They have taken what they learned and built a strategy based on that, which includes positioning Afrezza in the marketplace as a mealtime insulin that improves time in range. They now know much more about effective dosing, how best to help patients titrate for success, and they have incorporated changes into their educational efforts, packaging and sales strategies to benefit from this knowledge. 2. A key part of Mike's 2017 strategy was to create a viable financial runway to enable improved patient and provider education and market awareness. Debt restructuring seems to have been a key focus. They are realistic about what they need to do and how long it will take. Clearly, dilution will be necessary. given sales projections. Any cash payments from partners will be positive developments; but should not be seen as a key part of the strategy. 3. They learned a great deal of useful information from the pilot DTC commercials, and they are still digesting that information before embarking on further marketing. 4. Data available for this board (IMS script counts) does not provide a complete picture of sales progress or success.They know that early winter months are difficult, showing the same pattern as earlier years, but with less of a downturn. Hand wringing about sales based on this year's data is premature. (This was helpful). 5. Dr. Kendall is an important team acquisition. Mike commented at the end that he now has what he considers the best team he's ever worked with. Considering the source, this is an optimistic statement for an investor. Kendall's resume speaks for itself. That he looked beneath the kimono and decided to join Mannkind must be viewed as another positive for long term investors. He knows things we don't know and he has bought into the paradigm, which seems to be using real time control approaches and TIR as a key success metric for diabetes care in the future. Periodic HbA1C measures for the effectiveness of insulin use are outdated. Dr. Kendall reminded us that insulin has been in use for 95 years, and it's time to take a fresh look at improving its effectiveness as a treatment option. 6. The company still has plans for other applications of the technosphere technology.
7. They have active discussions underway with potential International partners
8. Pediatric trials continue to progress and will be an added revenue addition if and when a label change occurs to permit care to this segment.
9. They have taken what they've learned to improve packaging, both for improved titration as well as improved sales.
So my conclusions are as follows. They have competent leadership team, they have a well considered plan, and they are trying to be smart about how they use limited resources to move toward profitability. No projections were made on this, but IMO a reasonable investor might expect profitability in 2H 2019, possibly earlier depending on partnerships. They definitely did not seem to be making unrealistic projections for the sake of the audience. I do think it is important for someone at MNKD to review slides and talking points to eliminate errors before calls. I have no problem with limiting the number of questions at the end, as Q&A sessions leave too much room for speculation and false expectations. Overall, I'm relieved that the call was not the disaster that many naysayers here claimed it was. I'm holding on to my shares. Good luck to all longs. Chris C It is nice to see a team that is organized and present a realistic plan. After a couple years of trying to survive without any direction and supervision. |
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Post by cedafuntennis on Feb 28, 2018 15:40:58 GMT -5
You can't or don't want to believe. Previous management was totally incompetent and never deserved to head a company, even an ice cream manufacturer, let alone a company with this kind of product and market. Cannot believe such losers would get away with practically stealing millions of dollars and bringing the company in this position. Thankfully Mike Castagna came on board and brought to light the sheer incompetence of his predecessors and he is turning this ship around.
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Post by brentie on Feb 28, 2018 15:51:42 GMT -5
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Post by traderdennis on Feb 28, 2018 15:53:30 GMT -5
If they go from 9 million to 25 to 30 million this year in net revenue as forecasted, that would be about a 3x jump. If they do another 3x jump next and go to 75 to 90 million they should be close to being out of the red. At that point, hopefully no more dilution or a lot less. MNKD missed their 6-10 Million in guidance in 2h 2017. No confidence going forward until they actually meet. And yes, they reported 6.4, there was a 1.4 million item for a change in accounting methods. |
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Post by Omega on Feb 28, 2018 16:09:02 GMT -5
If they go from 9 million to 25 to 30 million this year in net revenue as forecasted, that would be about a 3x jump. If they do another 3x jump next and go to 75 to 90 million they should be close to being out of the red. At that point, hopefully no more dilution or a lot less. MNKD missed their 6-10 Million in guidance in 2h 2017. No confidence going forward until they actually meet. And yes, they reported 6.4, there was a 1.4 million item for a change in accounting methods. So their Guidance was they would Report 6-10 Million and they Reported 6.4 M, Sounds like they did what they said. Great confidence going forward! |
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Post by Chris-C on Feb 28, 2018 16:12:39 GMT -5
You can't or don't want to believe. Previous management was totally incompetent and never deserved to head a company, even an ice cream manufacturer, let alone a company with this kind of product and market. Cannot believe such losers would get away with practically stealing millions of dollars and bringing the company in this position. Thankfully Mike Castagna came on board and brought to light the sheer incompetence of his predecessors and he is turning this ship around. ------- Not sure what "you" you're referring to, but I agree wholeheartedly that leadership was less competent during the FDA submission process and certainly during the Sanofi partnership and during the turmoil after. But none of us were in MNKD (AFAIK), so we don't have all the facts. When the stock price hit $10, and Sanofi took the reigns, it would have been a perfect time to raise a billion dollars through a planned dilution of 100 million shares, even in the face of investor blowback. Even if that dilution had resulted in a 25% haircut that moved the SP to 8.00, who among us would not want to be in that situation today? That would translate into a $40 SP today, all things being equal (which they aren't). With a different board and a different CEO, perhaps SNY would have stayed with the product and we'd be having a different conversation. I have great respect for what Al Mann accomplished, but perhaps he was too much of a nice guy as a board Chair who rewarded loyalty by supporting people to be promoted to positions they couldn't effectively fill. It chafes that resources were wasted and that incompetents left with an embarrassment of riches, but MNKD is hardly unique in that respect. That's US capitalism and the rapidly waning (thank goodness) "good 'ole boy" practices of corporate America. But hindsight is always 20/20. I am also guilty of underestimating the headwinds following approval. I do believe the company would have been far more successful even with marginal leadership if the second FDA submission had been approved. Sometimes 2-3 years (and a few hundred million dollars) can make a heck of a difference in the fortunes of an enterprise. And Al Mann would have been younger too. Speaking from experience, I can readily say that age takes it toll. But none of that matters now. Our challenge today is to be in the moment and pay attention to what the company tell us. All that matters is the present, and with the team we now have, I'm quite satisfied. Check back in 10 months. Good luck to all longs, Chris C |
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Post by silentknight on Feb 28, 2018 17:53:47 GMT -5
MNKD missed their 6-10 Million in guidance in 2h 2017. No confidence going forward until they actually meet. And yes, they reported 6.4, there was a 1.4 million item for a change in accounting methods. So their Guidance was they would Report 6-10 Million and they Reported 6.4 M, Sounds like they did what they said. Great confidence going forward! Their guidance was 6-10 million and they actually sold ~5 million. They carried forward 1.4 million on a one time accounting change. They made guidance by cooking the books, not through actual sales. So they "made" but they "missed". |
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Feb 28, 2018 19:01:19 GMT -5
I have listened to a lot of these calls for a lot of years and IMO this was the best I have heard. I think today marks a turning point for the company. The biggest news I heard on the call was they found the 60+ studies which Al Mann did and Dr. Kendall not only read them but is putting a plan together to release them. That is huge. While he did not say it I suspect these studies had a great deal to do with why Dr. Kendall came to MNKD. Al left no stone un-turned and concluded afrezza should be the standard of care for all T2s from the first day they are diagnosed. Were these studies lost? I recall to have heard of these once a while wondering why these are not in the public domain. |
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Post by Omega on Feb 28, 2018 19:10:15 GMT -5
So their Guidance was they would Report 6-10 Million and they Reported 6.4 M, Sounds like they did what they said. Great confidence going forward! Their guidance was 6-10 million and they actually sold ~5 million. They carried forward 1.4 million on a one time accounting change. They made guidance by cooking the books, not through actual sales. So they "made" but they "missed". Did they state in their Guidance that it was going to be 6-10M on Sales of Afrezza exclusively? |
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Post by sayhey24 on Feb 28, 2018 20:04:59 GMT -5
I have listened to a lot of these calls for a lot of years and IMO this was the best I have heard. I think today marks a turning point for the company. The biggest news I heard on the call was they found the 60+ studies which Al Mann did and Dr. Kendall not only read them but is putting a plan together to release them. That is huge. While he did not say it I suspect these studies had a great deal to do with why Dr. Kendall came to MNKD. Al left no stone un-turned and concluded afrezza should be the standard of care for all T2s from the first day they are diagnosed. Were these studies lost? I recall to have heard of these once a while wondering why these are not in the public domain. I have been talking about these 60+ studies for awhile. When Mike first joined MNKD 2 years ago he had no real history of the company. I don't know if Matt explained the value of the studies to Mike or if Matt himself did not understand their value. Matt was the CFO. How much he really understood what Al was doing, I don't know. What I do know is it was obvious to me based on an interview Mike did that he either did not read the studies or did not understand what was in them. What I did find out was Mike had no knowledge of all these studies. The great news is he found them and gave them to Dr. Kendall who clearly understands what Al did and why Al was running around declaring afrezza the miracle solution for all PWDs. I think Dr. Kendall used the phase "paradigm changing" yesterday. I think you will also see that same phrase being used here on Proboards for a very long time. When I talked with Al about the studies back in 2011 his concern was that they were done with the Medtone inhaler and was not sure what, if anything needed to be done prior to release. Then of course we spent the next 2+ years in the FDA mill, then the Sanofi mess and then Al's failing health. I think the solution is they will not be called afrezza studies which imply a specific device/drug product but will be termed Technosphere Insulin. |
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Post by sportsrancho on Feb 28, 2018 20:25:53 GMT -5
Wow sayhey...that’s mine boggling and amazing and wonderful all at the same time!
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Post by traderdennis on Feb 28, 2018 20:39:57 GMT -5
Their guidance was 6-10 million and they actually sold ~5 million. They carried forward 1.4 million on a one time accounting change. They made guidance by cooking the books, not through actual sales. So they "made" but they "missed". Did they state in their Guidance that it was going to be 6-10M on Sales of Afrezza exclusively? If they were going to change the accounting rules, they should of stated that at the start of 2H 2017, not when reporting their results which is #crooked |
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Post by peppy on Feb 28, 2018 20:54:17 GMT -5
Did they state in their Guidance that it was going to be 6-10M on Sales of Afrezza exclusively? If they were going to change the accounting rules, they should of stated that at the start of 2H 2017, not when reporting their results which is #crooked we were told two quarters ago as well as last quarter that this accounting change was coming. Told on the CC. come on people. |
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Post by traderdennis on Feb 28, 2018 21:40:45 GMT -5
If they were going to change the accounting rules, they should of stated that at the start of 2H 2017, not when reporting their results which is #crooked we were told two quarters ago as well as last quarter that this accounting change was coming. Told on the CC. come on people. Not until 2018 |
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Post by peppy on Feb 28, 2018 21:42:21 GMT -5
we were told two quarters ago as well as last quarter that this accounting change was coming. Told on the CC. come on people. Not until 2018 heh |
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