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Post by InvesterSam on Feb 28, 2018 21:58:58 GMT -5
If they were going to change the accounting rules, they should of stated that at the start of 2H 2017, not when reporting their results which is #crooked we were told two quarters ago as well as last quarter that this accounting change was coming. Told on the CC. come on people. We all have checked symphony report every Friday morning and we already figured out what would be the total sales for the quarter and 2H. I believe the current share price reflected the sales already. What everyone was interested in CC were PR, updates, plans, etc. I thought it was a very good CC. We have very strong management team, good plans. I feel very confident in MNKD. |
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Post by seanismorris on Feb 28, 2018 22:41:02 GMT -5
we were told two quarters ago as well as last quarter that this accounting change was coming. Told on the CC. come on people. We all have checked symphony report every Friday morning and we already figured out what would be the total sales for the quarter and 2H. I believe the current share price reflected the sales already. What everyone was interested in CC were PR, updates, plans, etc. I thought it was a very good CC. We have very strong management team, good plans. I feel very confident in MNKD. There were good and bad things about the call... The financial situation seems never ending for us longs... I’d really like to see MannKind break even this year (at least). The last CC created a lot of optimism that scripts would be substantially higher than they are. I though MannKind finally have things worked out, and we were entering the marketing stage. Instead we found out that there was a lot more work to do, and cash burn was going to continue. Not everything was bad, we were introduced to David Kendall and he seems like a great addition to the MannKind team. But catalysts are months away, possibly even into 2019. MannKind is either going to have a lot of debt or a lot a dilution to get where they need to be... On the bright side, the stock held up pretty well. But, is suspect individual investors (operating from emotion) rather than institutional are keeping MNKD afloat. |
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Post by agedhippie on Feb 28, 2018 22:41:54 GMT -5
Were these studies lost? I recall to have heard of these once a while wondering why these are not in the public domain. I have been talking about these 60+ studies for awhile. When Mike first joined MNKD 2 years ago he had no real history of the company. I don't know if Matt explained the value of the studies to Mike or if Matt himself did not understand their value. Matt was the CFO. How much he really understood what Al was doing, I don't know. What I do know is it was obvious to me based on an interview Mike did that he either did not read the studies or did not understand what was in them. What I did find out was Mike had no knowledge of all these studies. The great news is he found them and gave them to Dr. Kendall who clearly understands what Al did and why Al was running around declaring afrezza the miracle solution for all PWDs. I think Dr. Kendall used the phase "paradigm changing" yesterday. I think you will also see that same phrase being used here on Proboards for a very long time. When I talked with Al about the studies back in 2011 his concern was that they were done with the Medtone inhaler and was not sure what, if anything needed to be done prior to release. Then of course we spent the next 2+ years in the FDA mill, then the Sanofi mess and then Al's failing health. I think the solution is they will not be called afrezza studies which imply a specific device/drug product but will be termed Technosphere Insulin. There are 27 trials ever recorded by Mannkind for diabetes (that goes back to 2004). If there are 60+ they aren't in the records. |
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Post by nylefty on Feb 28, 2018 23:14:07 GMT -5
Did they state in their Guidance that it was going to be 6-10M on Sales of Afrezza exclusively? If they were going to change the accounting rules, they should of stated that at the start of 2H 2017, not when reporting their results which is #crooked Leave it to Dennis to find something, anything, to gripe about - in the most over-the-top way possible. Crooked? Good grief! |
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Post by jred on Mar 1, 2018 11:46:31 GMT -5
There were no changes to the accounting rules for 2017. The new accounting method will be based on shipments. The old method was attempting to rely on sales. The adjustment of $1.4mil in revenue wasn't out of thin air. It was previously stated as deferred revenue. As Steven Binder states in the call, they obtained more comprehensive data that showed the inventory in the distribution channel was less than was being accounted for in deferred revenue - ie they sold it. More over, he mentioned the coming use of this more comprehensive data during the 3rd quarter call.
I know you were banking on them missing traderdennis, but if you are going to call someone crooked at least get the facts right.
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Post by digger on Mar 1, 2018 13:27:02 GMT -5
Can someone explain slide 21 of the presentation. It says "4x growth in new writers." I'm afraid I don't understand what that means. Why doesn't he simply state the number of writers before the commercials and then the number after? That would be a lot simpler.
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Post by peppy on Mar 1, 2018 13:30:45 GMT -5
Can someone explain slide 21 of the presentation. It says "4x growth in new writers." I'm afraid I don't understand what that means. Why doesn't he simply state the number of writers before the commercials and then the number after? That would be a lot simpler. I was happy to see this. digger when you have 2 and you go to 8 that is a four time increase. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Mar 1, 2018 13:37:06 GMT -5
Hmmm ... maybe 2 going to 10 would be more correct? I like 10 better anyway.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Mar 1, 2018 13:59:55 GMT -5
Can someone explain slide 21 of the presentation. It says "4x growth in new writers." I'm afraid I don't understand what that means. Why doesn't he simply state the number of writers before the commercials and then the number after? That would be a lot simpler. It might be that this is in comparison to the average of no advert territories... i.e. the average growth in writers in the advert targeted territories was 4x the growth in the non-advert ones. That said, based on the very slow growth in NRx over the months, I would expect that the growth numbers are very low in general. If the average growth in non-advert territories was 0.5 for the period, 4x would be 2. |
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Post by tingtongtung on Mar 1, 2018 14:51:17 GMT -5
We all have checked symphony report every Friday morning and we already figured out what would be the total sales for the quarter and 2H. I believe the current share price reflected the sales already. What everyone was interested in CC were PR, updates, plans, etc. I thought it was a very good CC. We have very strong management team, good plans. I feel very confident in MNKD. There were good and bad things about the call... The financial situation seems never ending for us longs... I’d really like to see MannKind break even this year (at least). The last CC created a lot of optimism that scripts would be substantially higher than they are. I though MannKind finally have things worked out, and we were entering the marketing stage. Instead we found out that there was a lot more work to do, and cash burn was going to continue. Not everything was bad, we were introduced to David Kendall and he seems like a great addition to the MannKind team. But catalysts are months away, possibly even into 2019. MannKind is either going to have a lot of debt or a lot a dilution to get where they need to be... On the bright side, the stock held up pretty well. But, is suspect individual investors (operating from emotion) rather than institutional are keeping MNKD afloat. Right.. Most of us already knew what was going on (approx sales, financial stuff, etc, etc). We were looking for something new: co-promotion that Mike was saying for quite sometime, any partners (highly unlikely), or some tangible movement in international, something in techno, RLS, etc. Nothing concrete was said about any of these. Money is a concern. Mike did a good job raising ~60million. Even though he has created 4 debt free (?) years, we need money to run the business. We barely got out of that mode when he raised 60 million, now we are almost back to the same spot. Hopefully lile the label change, the STAT will move the stock price up, and they raise another 60 million or so. 48 (in hand) + 60 (new cash) + 20 (selling Afrezza) == 128, so maybe (128-100) 30 million left by early 2019. (very conservative)?? So, we have to wait for STAT (jul/aug?) to get that cleared up? Not sure what can Cantor do to get more money (any advance in international before STAT?) I can say for myself.. I didn't expect anything more from them. Also, I didn't/dont expect Kendall to turn the ship in an instant. I'm sure he is a great guy. But, nothing happens because of one guy. Especially in this pharma sector, which looks so messed up. It needs education and exposure, and perseverance, which in turn needs lots of money. As Al Mann said, you need capital, capital, capital. I hope they keep on educating people (patients, vdex), and scripts starts going up. Social media is the cheapest, and a decent bet. I hope they continue to utilize it to the maximum! I will be honest. I watched that Noble conference again. The "talked to CMOs and nothing is coming in 10 years", "Afrezza IS the gold standard now", etc.. kind of made me think they must have done a deal or something. But it's good they haven't done any low value deals now.. Hopefully, another 12-18 months! |
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Post by wsulylecoug on Mar 1, 2018 15:52:59 GMT -5
There were good and bad things about the call... The financial situation seems never ending for us longs... I’d really like to see MannKind break even this year (at least). The last CC created a lot of optimism that scripts would be substantially higher than they are. I though MannKind finally have things worked out, and we were entering the marketing stage. Instead we found out that there was a lot more work to do, and cash burn was going to continue. Not everything was bad, we were introduced to David Kendall and he seems like a great addition to the MannKind team. But catalysts are months away, possibly even into 2019. MannKind is either going to have a lot of debt or a lot a dilution to get where they need to be... On the bright side, the stock held up pretty well. But, is suspect individual investors (operating from emotion) rather than institutional are keeping MNKD afloat. Right.. Most of us already knew what was going on (approx sales, financial stuff, etc, etc). We were looking for something new: co-promotion that Mike was saying for quite sometime, any partners (highly unlikely), or some tangible movement in international, something in techno, RLS, etc. Nothing concrete was said about any of these. Money is a concern. Mike did a good job raising ~60million. Even though he has created 4 debt free (?) years, we need money to run the business. We barely got out of that mode when he raised 60 million, now we are almost back to the same spot. Hopefully lile the label change, the STAT will move the stock price up, and they raise another 60 million or so. 48 (in hand) + 60 (new cash) + 20 (selling Afrezza) == 128, so maybe (128-100) 30 million left by early 2019. (very conservative)?? So, we have to wait for STAT (jul/aug?) to get that cleared up? Not sure what can Cantor do to get more money (any advance in international before STAT?) I can say for myself.. I didn't expect anything more from them. Also, I didn't/dont expect Kendall to turn the ship in an instant. I'm sure he is a great guy. But, nothing happens because of one guy. Especially in this pharma sector, which looks so messed up. It needs education and exposure, and perseverance, which in turn needs lots of money. As Al Mann said, you need capital, capital, capital. I hope they keep on educating people (patients, vdex), and scripts starts going up. Social media is the cheapest, and a decent bet. I hope they continue to utilize it to the maximum! I will be honest. I watched that Noble conference again. The "talked to CMOs and nothing is coming in 10 years", "Afrezza IS the gold standard now", etc.. kind of made me think they must have done a deal or something. But it's good they haven't done any low value deals now.. Hopefully, another 12-18 months! Concrete has a cure time...appears to be about 4 months. Didn't MC say there are two international deals curing? "Additionally, we have a fine term sheet for a large market outside the U.S. and we're in the process of finalizing a second term sheet. One or both we hope to announce in the first of this year, but as you know, these things take time. We do expect these deal structures will have a combination of upfront milestones royalties and more importantly we need to continue to serve patients around the world." The SA call transcript has some typos, but I'm pretty sure the timing was 1H 2018. There were only two countries named within the "Targeted" category. |
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Post by tingtongtung on Mar 1, 2018 16:22:00 GMT -5
Right.. Most of us already knew what was going on (approx sales, financial stuff, etc, etc). We were looking for something new: co-promotion that Mike was saying for quite sometime, any partners (highly unlikely), or some tangible movement in international, something in techno, RLS, etc. Nothing concrete was said about any of these. Money is a concern. Mike did a good job raising ~60million. Even though he has created 4 debt free (?) years, we need money to run the business. We barely got out of that mode when he raised 60 million, now we are almost back to the same spot. Hopefully lile the label change, the STAT will move the stock price up, and they raise another 60 million or so. 48 (in hand) + 60 (new cash) + 20 (selling Afrezza) == 128, so maybe (128-100) 30 million left by early 2019. (very conservative)?? So, we have to wait for STAT (jul/aug?) to get that cleared up? Not sure what can Cantor do to get more money (any advance in international before STAT?) I can say for myself.. I didn't expect anything more from them. Also, I didn't/dont expect Kendall to turn the ship in an instant. I'm sure he is a great guy. But, nothing happens because of one guy. Especially in this pharma sector, which looks so messed up. It needs education and exposure, and perseverance, which in turn needs lots of money. As Al Mann said, you need capital, capital, capital. I hope they keep on educating people (patients, vdex), and scripts starts going up. Social media is the cheapest, and a decent bet. I hope they continue to utilize it to the maximum! I will be honest. I watched that Noble conference again. The "talked to CMOs and nothing is coming in 10 years", "Afrezza IS the gold standard now", etc.. kind of made me think they must have done a deal or something. But it's good they haven't done any low value deals now.. Hopefully, another 12-18 months! Concrete has a cure time...appears to be about 4 months. Didn't MC say there are two international deals curing? "Additionally, we have a fine term sheet for a large market outside the U.S. and we're in the process of finalizing a second term sheet. One or both we hope to announce in the first of this year, but as you know, these things take time. We do expect these deal structures will have a combination of upfront milestones royalties and more importantly we need to continue to serve patients around the world." The SA call transcript has some typos, but I'm pretty sure the timing was 1H 2018. There were only two countries named within the "Targeted" category. Absolutely! I'm sure he meant India, China (he said something like countries with 80, 100 million patients). He also said, US is the one where the money is. And, they have been saying international for quite sometime. I dont know what term sheet means here. BTW, what did BIOMM get us? I would be happy if they expand, but I would want them to increase the scripts in US first. Then they will get a higher valuation, and will be in a better position to negotiate better deals. |
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Post by wsulylecoug on Mar 1, 2018 17:01:18 GMT -5
Concrete has a cure time...appears to be about 4 months. Didn't MC say there are two international deals curing? "Additionally, we have a fine term sheet for a large market outside the U.S. and we're in the process of finalizing a second term sheet. One or both we hope to announce in the first of this year, but as you know, these things take time. We do expect these deal structures will have a combination of upfront milestones royalties and more importantly we need to continue to serve patients around the world." The SA call transcript has some typos, but I'm pretty sure the timing was 1H 2018. There were only two countries named within the "Targeted" category. Absolutely! I'm sure he meant India, China (he said something like countries with 80, 100 million patients). He also said, US is the one where the money is. And, they have been saying international for quite sometime. I dont know what term sheet means here. BTW, what did BIOMM get us? I would be happy if they expand, but I would want them to increase the scripts in US first. Then they will get a higher valuation, and will be in a better position to negotiate better deals. I can't say 100% what "term sheet" means either, but I assume contract terms. BIOMM was zip upfront, well known. Scripts are growing in the US, albeit slowly. What level do they need to hit that allows them "to negotiate better deals"? Wait two more years to be in a better position to negotiate then go international or get the ball rolling ASAP? Does losing a couple of years of sales ex-us get compensated for with better deals? I don't know the answer to those questions, but I would guess that there are lots of folks who would be pretty angry if the reason for not going international now was to wait for US sales to hit the sweet spot for negotiations. Maybe not. I say expand expand expand. "In the last full year, I know people are looking for is a co- promote and that's always an opportunity, but in the end I think we have to take a look and see what is the better upside for our shareholders as we look out over the next 3 to 5 years. Should we expand internally and bring in more assets to grow AFREZZA faster, to diversify our revenue base or is it better to get co-promote partner and grow that way. We will continue to monitor and identify what we believe is the best thing for our shareholders." This statement gives me some comfort to know that MC is keeping options open...the last sentence in particular. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Mar 1, 2018 17:15:30 GMT -5
International is good. Even if it has a slight profit margin ... it'll bring the per unit cost down ... and thereby, the US sales will have an easier time getting to profitability.
It'll be great to run the production plants at full speed.
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Post by mnholdem on Mar 1, 2018 18:25:46 GMT -5
Exactly right! Fixed costs will be spread over volume, significantly improving COGS and margins.  |
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