Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2018 19:00:41 GMT -5
"mnholdem: Working in markets: India, China and Mexico 15 minutes ago"
Are these the countries being negotiated with the two term sheets or in addition to the two term sheets?
|
|
|
Post by lakers on Apr 9, 2018 19:57:23 GMT -5
Don't forget $6.25M due Deerfield 5/11/18, $2.77M due AMPH 6/15/18, and more. I believe, the China deal with AMPH will allow Mnkd to renegotiate the insulin payment term to AMPH.
$20M between 2 partners (India, China) has been bandied about by S.O. That seems to be low ball.
The wild cards are:
Equity stake by one or two partners: $50M for 10% stake might set the floor Pps to raise more money cheaply.
TreT licensing/partnership: After Phase I SAD study, Switch Study will start 1Q19, Pivotal PK Trial will start in 3Q19. Potential partner may emerge in 2019.
Co-promo International rev by Brazil, Mexico in 1H19, by India, China in 2H19.
Lower COGS due to higher volume.
Canada marketed by Mnkd, no NAFTA tariff, low shipping cost.
APAC: Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Vietnam by Takeda ?
MENA partnership?
|
|
|
Post by peppy on Apr 9, 2018 20:52:13 GMT -5
Don't forget $6.25M due Deerfield 5/11/18, $2.77M due AMPH 6/15/18, and more. I believe, the China deal with AMPH will allow Mnkd to renegotiate the insulin payment term to AMPH.
$20M between 2 partners (India, China) has been bandied by S.O. That seems to be low ball. The wild cards are: Equity stake by one or two partners: $50M for 10% stake might set the floor Pps to raise more money cheaply. TreT licensing/partnership: After Phase I SAD study, Switch Study will start 1Q19, Pivotal PK Trial will start in 3Q19. Potential partner may emerge in 2019. Co-promo International rev by Brazil, Mexico in 1H19, by India, China in 2H19. Lower COGS due to higher volume. Canada marketed by Mnkd. APAC: Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Vietnam by Takeda ? MENA partnership? quote: I believe, the China deal with AMPH will allow Mnkd to renegotiate the insulin payment term to AMPH. reply: it sounded like that to me too. quote: Lower COGS due to higher volume. reply: yes, mike mentioned that.
|
|
|
Post by agedhippie on Apr 9, 2018 22:08:46 GMT -5
Don't forget $6.25M due Deerfield 5/11/18, $2.77M due AMPH 6/15/18, and more. I believe, the China deal with AMPH will allow Mnkd to renegotiate the insulin payment term to AMPH. $20M between 2 partners (India, China) has been bandied about by S.O. That seems to be low ball. The wild cards are: Equity stake by one or two partners: $50M for 10% stake might set the floor Pps to raise more money cheaply. TreT licensing/partnership: After Phase I SAD study, Switch Study will start 1Q19, Pivotal PK Trial will start in 3Q19. Potential partner may emerge in 2019. Co-promo International rev by Brazil, Mexico in 1H19, by India, China in 2H19. Lower COGS due to higher volume. Canada marketed by Mnkd, no NAFTA tariff, low shipping cost. APAC: Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Vietnam by Takeda ? MENA partnership? Ok - if we are going for wild speculation how about Amphastar gets distribution rights in China in exchange for a lower insulin price. That drops the cost of materials (current insulin deal is volume insensitive), reduces the manufacturing costs, and opens the Chinese market. There is no upfront money, but there are enough benefits to offset that I think.
|
|
|
Post by careful2invest on Apr 9, 2018 22:29:58 GMT -5
Great presentation over all! One, possibly two deals pending soon. That's reassuring. Possibly no more dillution.
But a couple things I wish Mike would have mentioned...(and if he did, I may have missed it) And not sure of the importance with this audience, but my thoughts anyway...
He did not say anything about how Afrezza mimicks a healthy pancreas. Nor did he emphasize how Afrezza is totally out of your system within x time. And no mention of Alfred Mann. And what a legacy!! With all that Al accomplished in his life and with Afrezza being his crown jewel, not to mention that he invested over a billion $ of his own money to make it happen That alone showed the conviction that Al had in Afrezza. That may have been a missed opportunity to gain additional respect of the product, and what it took to get it to market. But over all, very positive! GLTA!
|
|
|
Post by peppy on Apr 9, 2018 22:34:23 GMT -5
Don't forget $6.25M due Deerfield 5/11/18, $2.77M due AMPH 6/15/18, and more. I believe, the China deal with AMPH will allow Mnkd to renegotiate the insulin payment term to AMPH. $20M between 2 partners (India, China) has been bandied about by S.O. That seems to be low ball. The wild cards are: Equity stake by one or two partners: $50M for 10% stake might set the floor Pps to raise more money cheaply. TreT licensing/partnership: After Phase I SAD study, Switch Study will start 1Q19, Pivotal PK Trial will start in 3Q19. Potential partner may emerge in 2019. Co-promo International rev by Brazil, Mexico in 1H19, by India, China in 2H19. Lower COGS due to higher volume. Canada marketed by Mnkd, no NAFTA tariff, low shipping cost. APAC: Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Vietnam by Takeda ? MENA partnership? Ok - if we are going for wild speculation how about Amphastar gets distribution rights in China in exchange for a lower insulin price. That drops the cost of materials (current insulin deal is volume insensitive), reduces the manufacturing costs, and opens the Chinese market. There is no upfront money, but there are enough benefits to offset that I think. Did you listen to mike during that part of the presentation?
|
|
|
Post by mytakeonit on Apr 9, 2018 22:34:44 GMT -5
Not wanting to be nit picky ... Yes, I do want to be nit picky. This point mentioned is incorrect ... "Lower COGS due to higher volume" . It should be lower unit cost due to increased production and reducing manufacturing and holding costs. We actually want "higher COGS due to higher sales volume". Unless we can get free ingredients and lower manufacturing costs etc ... COGS will always be up. So class ... class ... WAKE UP! COGS = beginning inventory + production - ending inventory that is the end of today's lecture. Sister Mary Elephant
|
|
|
Post by digger on Apr 9, 2018 22:50:01 GMT -5
Not wanting to be nit picky ... Yes, I do want to be nit picky. This point mentioned is incorrect ... "Lower COGS due to higher volume" . It should be lower unit cost due to increased production and reducing manufacturing and holding costs. We actually want "higher COGS due to higher sales volume". Unless we can get free ingredients and lower manufacturing costs etc ... COGS will always be up. So class ... class ... WAKE UP! COGS = beginning inventory + production - ending inventory that is the end of today's lecture. Sister Mary Elephant Must everything be so complicated -- www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cogs.asp -- "The COGS can easily be manipulated by accountants or managers looking to cook the books."
|
|
|
Post by lakers on Apr 10, 2018 3:35:56 GMT -5
Slide 26 Recap (almost complete) [first time it was worded like that, very interesting! no more PIPE this year? Partner equity stake? Upfronts? Milestones? Large Afrezza purchase by a national health care?]
It used to be:
Recapitalization (ongoing) Warrant Exchange Equity Raise Restructure/Reduce Debt Shareholder Vote to Increase Authorized Shares
A-One Investigator-Initiated Trial to finish this year, was originally slated for ADA 2018 but missed it.
Levin, ADD-1 trials will finish this year also. Apply for new labels which would attract more partners and spur sales?
|
|
|
Post by mnholdem on Apr 10, 2018 4:53:28 GMT -5
Not wanting to be nit picky ... Yes, I do want to be nit picky. This point mentioned is incorrect ... "Lower COGS due to higher volume" . It should be lower unit cost due to increased production and reducing manufacturing and holding costs. We actually want "higher COGS due to higher sales volume". Unless we can get free ingredients and lower manufacturing costs etc ... COGS will always be up. So class ... class ... WAKE UP! COGS = beginning inventory + production - ending inventory that is the end of today's lecture. Sister Mary Elephant You're apparently not a manufacturing manager. COGS is generally measured as the manufacturing costs deducted from gross revenue to yield net profit. Higher volume is beneficial because it spreads out fixed costs over more units produced and typically lowers COGS per unit, although there is a point of diminishing return as volume increases.
|
|
|
Post by falconquest on Apr 10, 2018 5:44:39 GMT -5
Not wanting to be nit picky ... Yes, I do want to be nit picky. This point mentioned is incorrect ... "Lower COGS due to higher volume" . It should be lower unit cost due to increased production and reducing manufacturing and holding costs. We actually want "higher COGS due to higher sales volume". Unless we can get free ingredients and lower manufacturing costs etc ... COGS will always be up. So class ... class ... WAKE UP! COGS = beginning inventory + production - ending inventory that is the end of today's lecture. Sister Mary Elephant You're apparently not a manufacturing manager. COGS is generally measured as the manufacturing costs deducted from gross revenue to yield net profit. Higher volume is beneficial because it spreads out fixed costs over more units produced and typically lowers COGS per unit, although there is a point of diminishing return as volume increases. That is correct and MN beat me to it. It is known as economy of scale.
|
|
|
Post by mytakeonit on Apr 10, 2018 7:16:44 GMT -5
Actually, I was an accountant in charge of handling manufacturing costs. The difference in what you both are saying includes the "missing part" that the original statement left out ... "COGS per unit".
Like I said ... it is being nit picky ... and just trying to clarify something. But then, it also brings to mind that famous quote ... never mind.
|
|
|
Post by peppy on Apr 10, 2018 7:57:14 GMT -5
Slide 26 Recap (almost complete) [first time it was worded like that, very interesting! no more PIPE this year? Partner equity stake? Upfronts? Milestones? Large Afrezza purchase by a national health care?] It used to be: Recapitalization (ongoing) Warrant Exchange Equity Raise Restructure/Reduce Debt Shareholder Vote to Increase Authorized Shares A-One Investigator-Initiated Trial to finish this year, was originally slated for ADA 2018 but missed it. Levin, ADD-1 trials will finish this year also. Apply for new labels which would attract more partners and spur sales? investors.mannkindcorp.com/static-files/68a15775-613a-4bd1-b839-08bf5543dcb7AED-1 trials. The dose optimization study is the Afrezza dynamic dosing study, which we're calling [AED-1] study. This protocol is very close to finalization and we're aiming for a July/August start with the possible Q4 completion, date available soon after.
|
|
|
Post by digger on Apr 10, 2018 9:05:16 GMT -5
Where are the "Several Territories Already Exceed 1% Market Share on Mealtime Insulin Market"?
To gain credibility, he really needs to identify exactly how many there are and where they are. Based on the numbers "otherottawaguy" is reporting in his "competing scripts" thread, I don't see how it's possible. Overall, 1% of $300,000,000 a week is $3,000,000. At the current around $600,000 a week, afrezza barely has 0.2%.
|
|
|
Post by digger on Apr 10, 2018 9:16:54 GMT -5
Anyone know where to get a copy of "Data from Seagrove Partners 2018 report “The Diabetes Forum: Automated Insulin Delivery”? Was it something financed by Mannkind? I can't find reference on the web to any "Diabetes Forum: Automated Insulin Delivery" and the title makes it sound like something written about pumps.
|
|