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Post by mnkdfann on Apr 10, 2018 12:32:13 GMT -5
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mnholdem: Targeted markets: "We already have 40% market share with some doctors." 17 minutes ago x
mnholdem: Fixed costs. Every 1% market share will translate into $70-$100 "in NET sales" - Mike 18 minutes ago x
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40% market share with some doctors? Are they high decile prescribers? If they are, I think weekly numbers would be higher. I am still a MNKD believer, but broad-stroke comments (spin?) like this give me pause re: sales projections. Stupid question, possibly, but does this include doctors writing scripts at VDEX clinics? (Or don't they do that there?)
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 10, 2018 12:42:32 GMT -5
Where are the "Several Territories Already Exceed 1% Market Share on Mealtime Insulin Market"? To gain credibility, he really needs to identify exactly how many there are and where they are. Based on the numbers "otherottawaguy" is reporting in his "competing scripts" thread, I don't see how it's possible. Overall, 1% of $300,000,000 a week is $3,000,000. At the current around $600,000 a week, afrezza barely has 0.2%. I could easily believe that is the case of 1% in isolated regions... if you have some region/city where a very influential endo is using Afrezza a lot in their practice and talking to local colleagues about it... especially if coupled with relatively good payer coverage in the area. Obviously I haven't the proof, but it doesn't seem unreasonable so I personally would choose to trust management. So far haven't seen any lying on their part.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 10, 2018 12:45:16 GMT -5
40% market share with some doctors? Are they high decile prescribers? If they are, I think weekly numbers would be higher. I am still a MNKD believer, but broad-stroke comments (spin?) like this give me pause re: sales projections. Stupid question, possibly, but does this include doctors writing scripts at VDEX clinics? (Or don't they do that there?) One would think VDEX doctors might be among the 40%ers.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 10, 2018 12:55:22 GMT -5
As Mike says, ignore the rxs numbers. Should I ignore the '40% market share with some doctors' comment?' Why would it be presented if it was not meaningful? If providers who have embraced Afrezza are not high decile prescribers, it is great for their patients but not for sales projections. I am comfortable with 'charts that go up' (vs hitting projected numbers), but I think candor is a reasonable investor expectation. If it's not a lie (I assume it is not) and it sounds good... it seems self evident why it might be used in a conference held for potential investors. Surely you realize companies spin the facts to present themselves within the best light possible without stepping over the boundary of being untruthful. The company is not there to present a balanced view of the pros and cons of investing in MNKD. In this case it also means something that some doctors (even if currently very small number) believe Afrezza is suitable for a significant portion of their patient population. That is clearly better than if no doctors at this point believed Afrezza should be prescribed to anyone other than the rare patient who simply refused to use injectable insulin.
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Post by sportsrancho on Apr 10, 2018 13:16:46 GMT -5
40% market share with some doctors? Are they high decile prescribers? If they are, I think weekly numbers would be higher. I am still a MNKD believer, but broad-stroke comments (spin?) like this give me pause re: sales projections. Stupid question, possibly, but does this include doctors writing scripts at VDEX clinics? (Or don't they do that there?) Yes the doctors at Vdex write scripts then you go to your pharmacy to pick it up.
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Post by mnkdfann on Apr 10, 2018 14:01:33 GMT -5
Stupid question, possibly, but does this include doctors writing scripts at VDEX clinics? (Or don't they do that there?) One would think VDEX doctors might be among the 40%ers. Then I am surprised it is only "40% market share with some doctors". I had imagined the VDEX doctors would be writing much more as a percentage of their market share.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 10, 2018 14:11:25 GMT -5
One would think VDEX doctors might be among the 40%ers. Then I am surprised it is only "40% market share with some doctors". I had imagined the VDEX doctors would be writing much more as a percentage of their market share. Maybe VDEX doctors are significantly higher than 40%. Perhaps Mike, even when doing some spinning, wouldn't feel comfortable using data for prescribers that are admitted shareholders of MNKD and on a mission to prescribe Afrezza. I personally would be pretty disappointed in Mike if it were only VDEX docs that he is talking about... i.e. getting a bit into the territory of stretching the truth. I guess we won't really know. Might be nice if he stated how many prescribers were in that 40% group.
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Post by od on Apr 10, 2018 20:57:27 GMT -5
Should I ignore the '40% market share with some doctors' comment?' Why would it be presented if it was not meaningful? If providers who have embraced Afrezza are not high decile prescribers, it is great for their patients but not for sales projections. I am comfortable with 'charts that go up' (vs hitting projected numbers), but I think candor is a reasonable investor expectation. If it's not a lie (I assume it is not) and it sounds good... it seems self evident why it might be used in a conference held for potential investors. Surely you realize companies spin the facts to present themselves within the best light possible without stepping over the boundary of being untruthful. The company is not there to present a balanced view of the pros and cons of investing in MNKD. In this case it also means something that some doctors (even if currently very small number) believe Afrezza is suitable for a significant portion of their patient population. That is clearly better than if no doctors at this point believed Afrezza should be prescribed to anyone other than the rare patient who simply refused to use injectable insulin. DBC, I am aligned with your thinking, except that potential healthcare investors will ask the same questions as od. If there is beef, great, but don't tease me with soy (I know, pretty lame). I have become very sensitive to management ratcheting-up the spin. If not for Dr. Kendall, I would probably be rooting from the bleachers, not the box seats (which were very comfortable when I purchased the seats a few seasons back).
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Post by digger on Apr 10, 2018 21:43:35 GMT -5
There is no spin, Mike doesn’t spin, and nobody else I’ve interacted with gives me any kind of spin at all. It’s my guess that the biggest markets are California and North Carolina but that was my impression a while back. Vdex is also mostly in California... There were also nine different markets that they showed the commercials in so those are the heaviest ones. I believe we had a list of those because people reported where they saw the commercials. I don't want to guess, I want to know. When did MNKD say they went into nine different markets? What were they? Why were they chosen? And I don't want because they were the "heaviest ones;" I want to know how many prescriber/users were there to begin with, how many actually saw the commercials, and what were the prescriber/user numbers afterwards. I don't see why that should be kept secret.
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Post by digger on Apr 10, 2018 21:50:37 GMT -5
I think that they have promotional efforts in only select territories. What I interpreted Mike to be saying was that in some areas they are over 1% and other areas well over 1%. This would seem to be in line with their statements that Afrezza is extremely commercially responsive. My interpretation (maybe too optimistic) is that in the areas that they have made a significant promotional effort, they have seen a response. Right there is the problem; you have "interpreted." I don't want to interpret and I don't want an interpreter and I don't want percentages. I just want real numbers; if I need percentages, I can always refer to my calculator. Also, how does he know the competitors' numbers in a given market? Is that data available from symphony? I would think Lilly and Novo would be reluctant to share specific numbers about specific markets.
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Post by peppy on Apr 10, 2018 21:58:18 GMT -5
I think that they have promotional efforts in only select territories. What I interpreted Mike to be saying was that in some areas they are over 1% and other areas well over 1%. This would seem to be in line with their statements that Afrezza is extremely commercially responsive. My interpretation (maybe too optimistic) is that in the areas that they have made a significant promotional effort, they have seen a response. Right there is the problem; you have "interpreted." I don't want to interpret and I don't want an interpreter and I don't want percentages. I just want real numbers; if I need percentages, I can always refer to my calculator. Also, how does he know the competitors' numbers in a given market? Is that data available from symphony? I would think Lilly and Novo would be reluctant to share specific numbers about specific markets.I don't know what the heck you are talking. 30 Mar 2018 Afrezza----519 $577k 277 $321k Apidra----6693 $5.16m 2499 $2.03m Novalog--137k $133m 56.3k $58.5m Humalog-155k $144m 60.8k $59.7m Humalin--37.9k $20.6m 14.8k $7.9m
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Post by digger on Apr 10, 2018 22:34:37 GMT -5
Right there is the problem; you have "interpreted." I don't want to interpret and I don't want an interpreter and I don't want percentages. I just want real numbers; if I need percentages, I can always refer to my calculator. Also, how does he know the competitors' numbers in a given market? Is that data available from symphony? I would think Lilly and Novo would be reluctant to share specific numbers about specific markets.I don't know what the heck you are talking. 30 Mar 2018 Afrezza----519 $577k 277 $321k Apidra----6693 $5.16m 2499 $2.03m Novalog--137k $133m 56.3k $58.5m Humalog-155k $144m 60.8k $59.7m Humalin--37.9k $20.6m 14.8k $7.9m I'm aware of that. Mike, as I recall, said that they had taken 1% of the market in some "territories." How does one find out the sales of humalog/apidra/novolog in those specific territories. Without knowing those, how can anyone claim they've taken 1% of the market in any given territory? Regardless, I want the real numbers, not percentages. Also, I still cannot find the "The Diabetes Forum: Automated Insulin Delivery” report referred to in the slides -- does anyone recognize it or know where to get a copy?
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Post by mnkdfann on Apr 10, 2018 23:03:17 GMT -5
Also, I still cannot find the "The Diabetes Forum: Automated Insulin Delivery” report referred to in the slides -- does anyone recognize it or know where to get a copy? www.seagrovepartners.net/diabetes-forum/It is a paid research service. So unless you subscribe, I think you are out of luck.
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Post by nylefty on Apr 10, 2018 23:12:59 GMT -5
There is no spin, Mike doesn’t spin, and nobody else I’ve interacted with gives me any kind of spin at all. It’s my guess that the biggest markets are California and North Carolina but that was my impression a while back. Vdex is also mostly in California... There were also nine different markets that they showed the commercials in so those are the heaviest ones. I believe we had a list of those because people reported where they saw the commercials. I don't want to guess, I want to know. When did MNKD say they went into nine different markets? What were they? Why were they chosen? And I don't want because they were the "heaviest ones;" I want to know how many prescriber/users were there to begin with, how many actually saw the commercials, and what were the prescriber/user numbers afterwards. I don't see why that should be kept secret. You can't always get what you want You can't always get what you want You can't always get what you want But if you try sometimes you just might find You just might find You get what you need
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Post by digger on Apr 11, 2018 9:09:15 GMT -5
Also, I still cannot find the "The Diabetes Forum: Automated Insulin Delivery” report referred to in the slides -- does anyone recognize it or know where to get a copy? www.seagrovepartners.net/diabetes-forum/It is a paid research service. So unless you subscribe, I think you are out of luck. There's another vague claim -- "Our extensive database of patients..." "Extensive" tells me absolutely nothing. It could be ten, a hundred, a hundred thousand. How did they establish the database? Medical records are usually private.
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