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Post by trenddiver on Nov 16, 2015 12:05:13 GMT -5
9. Senior management should show their commitment to the company by buying shares in the open market. If management, with all the non-public information in front of them, were to purchase shares in the open market at these low prices it would be a major blow to the short interests and would encourage buying by many longs sitting on the fence. Trend Trend, thanks for the suggestion. I have added your suggestion to my original post. Compound, Your post was among the best I've ever seen on this board. I hope you follow through with the suggestion to forward your post to Matt and Hakan. Trend
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Post by trenddiver on Nov 16, 2015 9:48:26 GMT -5
9. Senior management should show their commitment to the company by buying shares in the open market. If management, with all the non-public information in front of them, were to purchase shares in the open market at these low prices it would be a major blow to the short interests and would encourage buying by many longs sitting on the fence. Trend This is tricky... Unfortunately they cannot when they have non public information... There are really laws against it Well insiders can certainly buy shares if they believe the company is undervalued.
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Post by trenddiver on Nov 16, 2015 2:38:23 GMT -5
9. Senior management should show their commitment to the company by buying shares in the open market. If management, with all the non-public information in front of them, were to purchase shares in the open market at these low prices it would be a major blow to the short interests and would encourage buying by many longs sitting on the fence.
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Post by trenddiver on Nov 12, 2015 22:26:59 GMT -5
Before you and others spout out a bunch of misinformation, I suggest you read the Licence and Collaberation Agreement with Sanofi. There is no easy way out of this agreement. In fact even if some other company decided to purchase Mannkind and Sanofi chose not to exercise any rights of first refusal, the License and Collaberation Agreement for Afrezza would remain in Sanofi's hands. Trend Trend.. I believe you quite correct that this would be quite difficult to get out. Not to recant what I've said, but I feel the gist is simply that MNKD is now in a position where it could consider getting out if it wanted , whereas before TASE it was not. Personally, Im a believer that such small changes can make a massive difference in outcomes. I believe there is a potential now for a huge change in the relationship with SNY , for the positive, because of this. I have been negative on SNY longer than most on this board , was alarmed at their Meet Management meeting but frankly astonished at how quickly and effectively MNKD may have corralled them. (I did read the exhibits as you suggested and another thing that stuck out were the numerous references to bankruptcy.. This must have been factoring into SNY thinking from the getgo). Nothing has been said by anyone from MNKD to damage the relationship. They have just moved some chess pieces. On balance I'd say in 6 months we will still with SNY. But now because of Hakan , Matt and Al.. we have started to see some serious action by them. MB, it's good that you spent some time reading the agreement. The bankruptcy clauses you refer to are pretty much boiler plate clauses. I don't think that any of Sanofi's action (or lack of action) has anything to with Mannkind's financial condition. Many people (including Adam Feuerstein and the rest of the FUDmeisters) seem to forget that Al Mann owns over 40% of the the shares and in my opinion the financial stability of Mannkind is not in question. Al is a multi billionaire and will do whatever is necessary to make sure that the promise of Afrezza is realized by patients and shareholders. We have all seen Al step up when it really mattered at a time when there was real uncertainty about the future of Afrezza and Mannkind. This TASE offering has no effect in any way, shape or form in what Sanofi is planning to do. As I have said many times, it's all about improving the insurance coverage and the effect that the improved coverage will have on doctor and patient interest in Afrezza. So far, we have seen NO evidence that Sanofi is not proceeding in a Commercially Reaonable manner in tackling that problem. Don't forget that although Sanofi and Mannkind have different responsibilities under the Collaberation Agreement, the Agreement provides that the overall Afrezza project is jointly managed by both Sanofi and Mannkind and all decisions require unanimity of the parties. In conclusion we have seen NO evidence that Mannkind is dissatisfied with Sanofi's carrying out its responsibilities under the Agreement. Trend
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Post by trenddiver on Nov 12, 2015 15:50:10 GMT -5
Legally Mannkind can attempt to terminate the relationships with Sanofi for lack of good faith effort. Realistically, it won't happen. Sanofi can drag the termination process out in a way which Mannkind cannot afford. Sanofi does not want Afrezza in the hands of another player. Kind of like when you really don't like the girl a lot and then you find out your friend is going on a date with her and then you become jealous. How can Mannkind get rid of Sanofi? Easy, with a repressed share price, another suitor comes in and throws down a bid for Mannkind. Sanofi can match the bid or not. In the process, the price gets bid up to a point where Sanofi cannot make a multi-billion dollar investment and maintain the lax approach to marketing Afrezza. No company is going to buy out Mannkind you say, OK then maybe TS rights for a specific therapeutic category can be sold. Any Rx products with annual sales above $2B going off patent in the next 2-4 years? They might be interested in a drug delivery system that allows them to keep their sales and margin strong. I have not read in detail the agreement Mannkind has with Sanofi and there is much that has been redacted but as detailed as the agreement is, nothing is air tight and their is likely enough ambiguity that gives Mannkind some room for innovative solutions to the current challenges. Keep in mind, Al Mann did not get to where he is by being a shrinking violet. He is smart, driven and scrappy. He may not be involved in the day to day, but he can still pick up a phone. Before you and others spout out a bunch of misinformation, I suggest you read the Licence and Collaberation Agreement with Sanofi. There is no easy way out of this agreement. In fact even if some other company decided to purchase Mannkind and Sanofi chose not to exercise any rights of first refusal, the License and Collaberation Agreement for Afrezza would remain in Sanofi's hands. Trend
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Post by trenddiver on Nov 12, 2015 3:45:42 GMT -5
From where I look at it Sanofi holds al, the cards and gets to deal and arbitrate... As it relates to termination rights, you are 100% correct-Sanofi is in the drivers seat. After Jan.1, 2016, Sanofi can terminate with 90 days notice if they determine Afrezza is not commercially marketable or they can terminate for any reason with 180 days notice. Mannkind's termination rights will definitely involve expensive litigation and will be hard to prove. Trend
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Post by trenddiver on Nov 12, 2015 3:09:42 GMT -5
AND, the remaining milestones are mainly for sales and reg approvals... Ironically both are SNY's responsibility, so they're in control doing anything worth paying a milestone before they're guilty of not paying it. Sorry, but this is precisely my point. Surely if SNY dont achieve them,or they are late, dont you think MNKD now has a case to show SNY did not attempt Commercially Reasonable Efforts? Having a case to show and proving the case is a long, arduous and expensive battle. At this point in time, it would be difficult to show such a case (let alone prove such a case) because all decisions regarding this venture are jointly approved by Sanofi and Mannkind. This is all covered in the Collaberation Agreement which I encourage you to peruse (Exhibit 10.1 to the 3rd q 2014 10-q.) Trend
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Post by trenddiver on Nov 12, 2015 2:27:05 GMT -5
Either party will have rights to terminate. This is what milestones are for in contracts. I remember distinctly Matt saying they achieved the early ones related to production - so SNY could not just walk away. Well that's swung the other way time for SNY to perform.. Sure I dont have access to the precise wording of the contract , but missed milestones mean decisions can be made without further recourse. I suggest you take a look at Exhibit 10.1 to the 3rd quarter 2014 10-q, specifically Article 12. Your assertions are incorrect. Mannkind can terminate only if a ruling is obtained that Sanofi has failed to use Commercially Reasonable Efforts. There are no termination rights related to missed milestones. Trend
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Post by trenddiver on Nov 12, 2015 1:45:02 GMT -5
I believe every business negotiation is backstopped by either party retaining a position to walk away. MNKD just reinstated its ability to do that. And how is Mannkind supposed to just walk away? It's Sanofi that has the right to terminate the agreement, not Mannkind.
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Post by trenddiver on Nov 12, 2015 1:10:44 GMT -5
Look, I know Hakan Edstrom. I worked directly for him. He does not put out press releases for the sole purposes of placating nervous investors. These are real executives running a real company. They don't issue constant press releases like a bunch of other penny stock scams, all for the purpose of (unsuccessfully) lifting their stock price. That tactic never works in the long run and this is a company with a very long term plan. The philosophy at Mannkind has always been to let the science speak for the company. The more people who get treated with Afrezza, the more the stock price will take care of itself. Some people think that only issuing press releases when absolutely necessary is a bad thing. I see it as a mature, responsible thing that doesn't lend itself to "hype" which is what many of you are craving for. If there are material, provable actions that people are doing to manipulate the stock, let the SEC take care of it... and that is exactly what MKND said they are letting them do. It's not MNKD's responsibility to address every nervous nellie or message board basher. Their time is better spent elsewhere. This press release was not to placate nervous investors but to assure the survival of Mannkind from a financing point of view. I have been a long time investor (over 8 years) but have gradually sold out all my shares over the last year or so. One misstep after the other. If what you are saying above is the thinking at Mannkind it scares me and explains to me the deeply flawed thinking that seems to afflict Mannkind management. The days leading up to a big refinancing (and crucially based on share price around that time) are very material and a strong denial or clarification would have been urgently needed. No wonder short find it so easy to punch around a company that plays by the rules it wants or thinks it should play by and not by the rules it has to play by. And if you answer the high road is a better strategy I would answer back: how has that worked out for us from a financing point of view? Always dilute at the absolute worst time and under dire conditions and at the mercy of crooks. Why didn't management dilute when we were at a 52 week high (like most well run biotech do)? Because it wouldn't have been popular? Guess who isn't very popular right now and for good reason... This is why I have no respect for management, especially Matt. In the summer of 2014, when the SP was $8-$10 Mannkind could have and should have sold the same 50,000,000 shares and raised $400m-$500m. Mannkind would have then had plenty of cash to pay off all of the debt, finance its TS R&D, and provide sufficient cash flow to finance at least 3 years of cash flow. They also would have been in a much stronger possession to be able to negotiate a better deal with Sanofi or some other BP candidate. But what did our management do? They SOLD THEIR OWN SHARES, leaving us as the bag holders. Trend
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Post by trenddiver on Nov 11, 2015 0:51:25 GMT -5
Wish I would have acted on my own forecast. It cost me and most other longs a lot of money the way things turned out. Trend The story is not over. You don't lose money unless you sell. Hindsight has always been 20/20 and there are many coulda, woulda, shoulda things we've all regretted in our lives. It doesn't mean that your MNKD investment was a bad decision. That has yet to resolve itself. No it's not over but Matt and Hakan have got to go.
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Post by trenddiver on Nov 11, 2015 0:48:23 GMT -5
I did a little analysis of the 3rd quarter financials and have some questions and concerns:
1. Mannkind is spending $4 million per month on g&a and $2 million on R&D. I can see the R&D expenditures as necessary but $4 million in g&a? This seems rather excessive considering the level of activity. 2. There is something called product variance cost of $8.1 million. What the heck is that? 3. Mannkind share of the JV costs is $43 million. This means that the Sanofi has spent $122 million so far. I don't get it. What could they possibly have spent that kind of money on? Certainly not on DTC advertising.
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Post by trenddiver on Nov 11, 2015 0:17:44 GMT -5
Sorry to bring up old business but this prediction was one of the worst we've seen. With 3 trading days left in the month, the share price is down nearly 40% since the date of your prediction ($5.46). Every reason given to support your conclusion was also wrong. I'm afraid forecasting is not your forte. trend Alas, trenddiver is correct in that my prediction of a turn around in the stock in August did not come to pass. I beg to differ on the worst we've seen comment. I knew I was sticking my neck out when I wrote this prediction back in late July. I am willing to take my lumps (LOL) for making that prediction and being wrong. I wanted to quickly review my three main news events that I thought would change the pps for good. 1. $100 Million Convertible Notes Issue will be resolved one way or the other. I believe the terms will just be renegotiated. Just like any other big company would handle it. (As George Rho mentioned in one his articles in Seek Alpha, the handling of the Convertible notes was clumsy. I thought Mnkd would handle this cleanly and efficiently. Instead, the conversion process opened up new opportunities for manipulation. Short interest rose from 112,846,501 on 7/15/15 to 121,777,505 on 8/14/15. Making it impossible to convert above the floor. Which is exactly what the dark forces wanted.) 2. The Quarterly Report from Sanofi will be positive. It will show that income from Afrezza has grown from the previous quarter by several times or more. Perhaps we will get a surprise and Sanofi will speak more about several items like a launch in another country, DTC advertising, and other plans for Afrezza. (This prediction is where I missed badly. Sanofi didn't even mention Afrezza or Mnkd at all. Ouch.) 3. The Quarterly Report from Mnkd will be positive. The balance sheet will continue to show improvement. It will show lower expenses and revenue from Afrezza sales. Also, I believe there will be further clarification on Technosphere plans. (On this prediction, I believe I was actually correct. The cost of doing business dropped dramatically for Mnkd. For the first six months of 2015, operating expenses were $45.8 million, a decline of 58.8% compared to the same period in 2014. This is good news. I was hoping for more news on TS but didn't get that.) Needless to say, I will not be giving up my day job to council people on how to invest. And I may get brave enough again to make another prediction in the future. But as Spiro said, I will have to come out from under my desk first. The one bright spot, I have one more day for the share price to take off in August. (I am eternally optimistic.) CCI. Well it's looks like you are sticking out your neck again, so I feel compelled to respond with my own comments and predictions. 1. Since I have no confidence in Matt Pfeffer, nothing good will come out of the renegotiation of he Convertible Debt. MNKD will be forced to pay the debt in cash or there will be another short term extension. (Exactly what the dark forces want). 2. Sanofi again will not mention or speak very little about Afrezza. I would be worried that if they do talk about Afrezza, it'll be in the context of reevaluating their partnerships. 3. Unless there is some dramatic increase in weekly scripts or some major breakthrough with the lack of insurance coverage for Afrezza over the next couple of months, the Quarterly Report will be deemed by the street as negative. The Balance Sheet will continue to show deterioration (more losses and less cash). This will be played up by the shorts as "dilution just around the corner". Because of where future Technosphere opportunities are in the developmental cycle, I don't expect any news that will be positively interpreted until the first quarter of 2016, at the earliest. JMHO Trend Wish I would have acted on my own forecast. It cost me and most other longs a lot of money the way things turned out. Trend
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Post by trenddiver on Nov 6, 2015 17:39:59 GMT -5
Just found it. 5:00 EST.
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Post by trenddiver on Nov 6, 2015 17:38:33 GMT -5
Has the time of the CC been announced yet?
I'm hoping that Matt will follow through and be more informative with investors about formulary coverage and future Technosphere projects.
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