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Post by trenddiver on Oct 6, 2015 1:26:32 GMT -5
I must respectfully disagree with you, harry. The next TS drug could be launched in a couple years while Afrezza has captured perhaps 10% of the prandial insulin market, or roughly 30k scripts per week...still in its infancy, really. The other problem with your analysis is that with Afrezza, the scrutiny is necessarily more stringent because it must be administered multiple times each day for the rest of a diabetic's life (if as a Type I the pancreas cannot produce insulin). Other drugs will be administered only when needed, so the risk-benefit ratios naturally will more heavily favor the API. Technosphere's proof of concept, as you call it, is already being loudly validated by early adopters, diabetics who are shouting "freedom" from the rooftops (and on social media) and Technosphere will soon be validated with solid empirical evidence. Regarding any lung concerns, members of the ADCOM went out of their way to clarify that there was virtually no indication of Technosphere-Insulin causing lung damage in the thousands of trial patients. The 5-year post-marketing study is meant to simply put the issue to rest. Considering that with Technosphere's use in pain management and/or other applications where inhalation is required on a much less frequent basis, there will be much less concern, if any. I fully expect that whatever new Technosphere-delivered drugs emerge from the pipeline, the FEV1 test will be recommended but not required and MannKind will not have a black box warning like it temporarily does on Afrezza. So Technosphere's proof of concept in the marketplace is not based on whether Afrezza becomes a blockbuster. It's based on recognition by insurers and medical professionals that Technosphere delivers as promised. At the present moment, it's a monomeric human insulin that is being delivered to diabetics. That is unprecedented in diabetes treatment, really. Other drugs won't be so disruptive that the medical community needs this much time to disect the various health benefits, as it currently is with Afrezza. It will be much less complicated to understand pain disappearing in 5-7 minutes after inhaling a pain medication. The science of Technosphere will prevail. Afrezza may not be the biggest blockbuster to emerge from our pipeline. I'll have to stick by my belief that Tech and Afrezza are tied up in this together, not saying it should be like in a just/fair world, but that's not the world we live in. I think the timeline by necessity needs to be much quicker than your suggestion of a "couple years" for first TS application and Afrezza capturing 10% of market... if you are correct than MNKD is dead money for another few years and I can't believe that's even possible. What happens in the next year or so is going to be an all or nothing scenario imo*. I don't believe there are any lung concerns, I was simply addressing the FDAs perspective on the matter with risk of bronchiospasm and other lung related contraindications. I have to disagree with you on the matter of early adopters validating Afrezza, BP sees nothing but green when they evaluate a future drug or technology and early adopter's aren't bringing in the $$$. When Afrezza is overflowing with $$$, only then will BP pay the price for Technosphere. That would be nice if Afrezza wasn't even the biggest tech drug but many things have to happen between now and then; I'd happily sit on this investment for a few years as long as progress is being made to this end. On the other hand I'm keeping a vigilante eye on the cash on-hand/burn/debt situation and will act accordingly if I sense further dilution. Harrys, I'm expecting the question of cash and liquidity to come up at the next CC. I hope our CFO is prepared for the question and comes up with a credible answer. He said no dilution on the repayment of the notes, but instead iMNKD is having to use its valuable cash reserves to pay the notes. To replenish the cash reserves either more debt or equity will be required and neither can be obtained on favorable terms because of the uncertainty surrounding the Company's operations. Trend
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Post by trenddiver on Oct 6, 2015 0:45:11 GMT -5
1. I perused the latest 10-q and didn't notice any restricted cash. 2. As has been previously stated, deferred product sales and deferred revenue will not ever add to cash. The cash for those deferred revenue amounts has already been received by MNKD The only question is when the revenue gets recognized for financial statement purposes.
Note 14 (page 16) of the MNKD 10-Q filed 8/10/2015. James - Good find! However technically speaking, the $25 million referred to by AF is not restricted cash (or it would have been designated as such on the balance sheet). It is only a financial covenant. Thus the full amount of cash is available to be utilized at all times, provided that $25 million of cash is in the bank at the end of any quarter. Trend
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Post by trenddiver on Oct 5, 2015 19:41:41 GMT -5
I think your interpretation of AF article is off base. As much as I disagree with most of what AF says, he is 100% correct about the restricted cash; MNKD cant spend it. Therefore if you cant spend it, it's pretty much useless cash sitting in a bank earning maybe 1% interest and you cant count it as cash available to fund operations. The items you refer to such as ramp up in sales, additional milestones, technosphere advances are all highly speculative events (none of which will have a very significant impact to cash over the next year or two and as such have to be significantly discounted as an investor. Therefore its seems to me that unless Big Al wants to lend some more money, MNKD is going to have to raise additional capital in 2016. I'm hoping that Sanofi or management can get more proactive with this insurance coverage issue. Because unless the insurance problem is solved, the best we can hope for is for sales of Afrezza to just muddle along. Its just too bad the way things turned out with this inept management team of Hakan and Matt.
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First, we do not know whether AF is correct or not about the restricted nature of the $25 million cash. Second, if it is restricted, we do not know when and how the restriction can be lifted and the cash therefore becomes available. Third, if the cash has zero value, then how can Mannkind publicly claim its cash balance is $107 million? Should it say $82 million? I just pointed out that, assuming what AF said in his article is true, then Mannkind's cash balance will be reduced to $43 million (with $25 million restricted if AF's claim on restricted nature of such money is true). But AF should not say Mannkind's cash balance is reduced to $18 million. That is a misleading statement. If, however, he says that Mannkind's freely useable cash is reduced to $18 million. That's different. Further, Mannkind has sold certain amount of Afrezza and has not recognized revenue on these sales yet. At some point, Mannkind will be able to book recognized revenue on these sales. So it is not speculative that Mannkind will be able to recognize some sales at some point. Even at $20 or $30 million, that's not a small number. "At the same time MannKind had $5.9 million in deferred product sales of Afrezza, and there was no recognized revenue. The first quarter had $7.1 million in deferred product sales." ( 247wallst.com/healthcare-business/2015/08/10/mannkind-cheered-despite-lower-afrezza-shipments/#ixzz3nk0oiU). 1. I perused the latest 10-q and didn't notice any restricted cash. 2. As has been previously stated, deferred product sales and deferred revenue will not ever add to cash. The cash for those deferred revenue amounts has already been received by MNKD The only question is when the revenue gets recognized for financial statement purposes.
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Post by trenddiver on Oct 5, 2015 19:30:04 GMT -5
Trend With the limited information I receive from MNKD and the message boards ; All I can conclude is SNY hasn't delivered on their end . MNKD has done their part in manufacturing and product development . If SNY doesn't step up , I am sure NVS , AZN or many others would want this deal , especially because we are much further down the road ( Humalog / Afrezza , clamp study complete , pediatric study FDA approved and enrolling ). You were around when SNY F/ed MNKD out of the German insulin plant from PFE ( we only received the insulin for 3 million ) Al was pissed , he wanted the German plant SNY got for something like 33 million. After history such as this , I am hopeful MNKD's partnership agreement has some resolutions to each party, if either drop the ball . All the deleted posts at YMB ( clicking on report abusive posts , deletes the message ) starting last Friday , the high short interest , AF's new hit piece and some of the new Sh*t posters here at proboards are not a coincidence , this I believe points to a positive catalyst occurring in the near future. Just thoughts from an old timer . All the best , GWB GWB, Although I don't always agree with your posts, they are always well thought out. Its hard to say whether or not Sanofi has delivered. There are two big issues that had to be tackled by Sanofi. Informing doctors about Afrezza and its benefits and dealing with the insurance issues. From anecdotal information only, I don't think they did a great job of introducing the product to doctors. And I don't know enough about the insurance coverage issue to know what else could have been done. The insurance coverage issue is the big elephant in the room. You can inform all the patients and doctors in this country, but without insurance coverage, Afrezza is going nowhere fast. The problem with our situation is - who can we hold accountable? SNY? MNKD? We are MNKD shareholders and thus we can really only hold MNKD accountable. Although MNKD is a minority partner, if the majority partner isn't doing what is expected, then changes either in strategy or tactics have to take place. Its hard to imagine Hakan or Matt being forceful advocates for change at these partnership meetings, so we're kinda stuck where we are. Furthering the problem is the inability to provide answers to shareholders. I'm always frustrated when Matt doesn't answer questions regarding these important topics, pointing to confidentiality concerns. Whether anyone else could do a better job than SNY, its hard to say.
I dont necessarily take this AF article to be a hit piece. He is pretty much saying what is so as its relates to the cash burn and MNKD's available cash.
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Post by trenddiver on Oct 5, 2015 18:29:19 GMT -5
I have compiled my responses to AF's article together as follows for your easier reading (apology for the repetition as I hate a misleading piece like this by AF): Compared with a debt for equity swap at a low price for the equity, I would much prefer a repayment of the existing debt with cash. Here is what I wrote in Why Piper Jaffray is Wrong on Mannkind in regarding to the debt issue. This situation has not changed at all and my assessment remains the same. HERE IS MY ASSESSMENT OF THE DEBT SITUATION USING THE NUMBERS FROM MANNKIND'S LAST CONFERENCE CALL:Per Mannkind’s last conference call, Mannkind has $107 million cash, $30 million credit line with Al Mann, $147 million available under the credit line with Sanofi, totally $284 million. According to this article, Mannkind will like receive $25 million manufacturing milestone this year. It is also expected that Mannkind will get $50 million in total approval milestone for approval in EU and Japan. One would expect the EU and Japan approval to be cleared within two years. Adding this additional $75 million to the $284 million, that’s $359 million. Per Mannkind’s last conference call, Mannkind’s quarterly loss was $28.9 million last quarter. So at this rate, Mannkind has enough cash to go through the next three years without capital raise. Even if we assume Mannkind does not refinance some of the notes that were due in 2015 (say $60 million) and pay that part off with available cash, Mannkind still have enough cash to go through two and half years without the need of raising cash. This does not take into account sales ramp, additional milestone payments from Sanofi and potential partner payments for other Technosphere applications. ALTERNATIVELY, HERE IS MY ASSESSMENT OF THE DEBT SITUATION GOING BY AF’S CASH BURN RATE, WITHOUT CONSIDERING THE SANOFI FACILITY:Per Mannkind’s last conference call, Mannkind has $107 million cash, and according to this article, Mannkind will like receive $25 million manufacturing milestone this year. That will lead to a total available cash of $132 million. Even if Mannk paid off $64 million with cash and burned another $13 million cash in the third quarter, that will leave Mannkind with $55 million available cash, plus $30 million credit line with Al Mann, at the end of the third quarter, and $42 million available cash, plus $30 million credit line with Al Mann, at the end of the fourth quarter. At $13 million per quarter, Mannkind needs not worry about raising additional cash for 2016.
And most likely, within 2016 or at the beginning of 2017, Mannkind will receive either all or part of the milestone payments for EU and/or Japan approval. That will support Mannkind’s operation through 2017. This does not take into account sales ramp, additional milestone payments from Sanofi and potential partner payments for other Technosphere applications. By that time, what will be Afrezza’s ramp-up, quarterly sales income, and sales-related milestone payments? And milestone payments for other Technoshere applications? Let’s wait and see. ADDITIONALLY, NOTE THAT IN THE LANGUAGE QUOTED BELOW, AF SNEAKILY AND MISLEADINGLY TOOK AWAY $25 MILLION FROM MANNKIND'S CASH BALANCE. "The problem for MannKind is that it can't really afford to spend cash to settle old debts. The company had $107 million in cash on hand as of June 30, of which $25 million is restricted and cannot be touched due to other outstanding debt obligations. Subtract another $64 million to satisfy current debt holders reduces MannKind's cash balance to $18 million." Even if we assume that $25 million is restricted and can not touched, it is still in the balance book of Mannkind. So that, if we subtract $64 million from Mannkind's cash balance, MannKind's cash balance is not reduced to $18 million as AF claimed, but $43 million (with $25 million restricted, assuming what AF claims is true). There is huge difference between $18 million and $43 million. Adding in the $25 million manufacturing milestone payment that Mannkind is expected to receive, then it is $18 million [the picture AF paints] vs $68 million [the reality] (18 million +25 million (restricted) +25 million (milestone)) million. You see the difference between what AF claims and the reality? I think your interpretation of AF article is off base. As much as I disagree with most of what AF says, he is 100% correct about the restricted cash; MNKD cant spend it. Therefore if you cant spend it, it's pretty much useless cash sitting in a bank earning maybe 1% interest and you cant count it as cash available to fund operations. The items you refer to such as ramp up in sales, additional milestones, technosphere advances are all highly speculative events (none of which will have a very significant impact to cash over the next year or two and as such have to be significantly discounted as an investor. Therefore its seems to me that unless Big Al wants to lend some more money, MNKD is going to have to raise additional capital in 2016. I'm hoping that Sanofi or management can get more proactive with this insurance coverage issue. Because unless the insurance problem is solved, the best we can hope for is for sales of Afrezza to just muddle along. Its just too bad the way things turned out with this inept management team of Hakan and Matt.
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Post by trenddiver on Oct 1, 2015 23:09:26 GMT -5
I'd be spearheading the insurance coverage effort and assembling a top flight team to accomplish this extremely important task.
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Post by trenddiver on Oct 1, 2015 1:58:24 GMT -5
I'm hoping that Matt Pfeffer is one of those who are getting laid off. I have said this many times before, he is a nice guy but is in way over his head in all areas of his job responsibilities. Mannkind and its shareholders deserve much better.
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Post by trenddiver on Aug 31, 2015 1:43:00 GMT -5
Sorry to bring up old business but this prediction was one of the worst we've seen. With 3 trading days left in the month, the share price is down nearly 40% since the date of your prediction ($5.46). Every reason given to support your conclusion was also wrong. I'm afraid forecasting is not your forte. trend Alas, trenddiver is correct in that my prediction of a turn around in the stock in August did not come to pass. I beg to differ on the worst we've seen comment. I knew I was sticking my neck out when I wrote this prediction back in late July. I am willing to take my lumps (LOL) for making that prediction and being wrong. I wanted to quickly review my three main news events that I thought would change the pps for good. 1. $100 Million Convertible Notes Issue will be resolved one way or the other. I believe the terms will just be renegotiated. Just like any other big company would handle it. (As George Rho mentioned in one his articles in Seek Alpha, the handling of the Convertible notes was clumsy. I thought Mnkd would handle this cleanly and efficiently. Instead, the conversion process opened up new opportunities for manipulation. Short interest rose from 112,846,501 on 7/15/15 to 121,777,505 on 8/14/15. Making it impossible to convert above the floor. Which is exactly what the dark forces wanted.) 2. The Quarterly Report from Sanofi will be positive. It will show that income from Afrezza has grown from the previous quarter by several times or more. Perhaps we will get a surprise and Sanofi will speak more about several items like a launch in another country, DTC advertising, and other plans for Afrezza. (This prediction is where I missed badly. Sanofi didn't even mention Afrezza or Mnkd at all. Ouch.) 3. The Quarterly Report from Mnkd will be positive. The balance sheet will continue to show improvement. It will show lower expenses and revenue from Afrezza sales. Also, I believe there will be further clarification on Technosphere plans. (On this prediction, I believe I was actually correct. The cost of doing business dropped dramatically for Mnkd. For the first six months of 2015, operating expenses were $45.8 million, a decline of 58.8% compared to the same period in 2014. This is good news. I was hoping for more news on TS but didn't get that.) Needless to say, I will not be giving up my day job to council people on how to invest. And I may get brave enough again to make another prediction in the future. But as Spiro said, I will have to come out from under my desk first. The one bright spot, I have one more day for the share price to take off in August. (I am eternally optimistic.) CCI. Well it's looks like you are sticking out your neck again, so I feel compelled to respond with my own comments and predictions. 1. Since I have no confidence in Matt Pfeffer, nothing good will come out of the renegotiation of he Convertible Debt. MNKD will be forced to pay the debt in cash or there will be another short term extension. (Exactly what the dark forces want). 2. Sanofi again will not mention or speak very little about Afrezza. I would be worried that if they do talk about Afrezza, it'll be in the context of reevaluating their partnerships. 3. Unless there is some dramatic increase in weekly scripts or some major breakthrough with the lack of insurance coverage for Afrezza over the next couple of months, the Quarterly Report will be deemed by the street as negative. The Balance Sheet will continue to show deterioration (more losses and less cash). This will be played up by the shorts as "dilution just around the corner". Because of where future Technosphere opportunities are in the developmental cycle, I don't expect any news that will be positively interpreted until the first quarter of 2016, at the earliest. JMHO Trend
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Post by trenddiver on Aug 27, 2015 12:38:23 GMT -5
Do you have a point of view about the original thread post and the assertions made? As for me, I make no predictions other than the next 3 or 4 months are critical and I'm not buying nor am I selling. Also, I think I'm going to stop looking at the pathetic weekly script counts. I think that's a great idea. Watching grass grow is not a healthy obsession. Watching the day to day stock price movements or script growth will probably drive you nuts. Without information from MNKD or SNY about actual strategy, the incomplete data will likely be interpreted poorly. As for my forecasting, my magic 8 ball says, September will be a good month. I would take the Magic 8 ball's predictions over Matt Pfeffer's any day.
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Post by trenddiver on Aug 27, 2015 0:32:46 GMT -5
trenddiver
Somehow you don't seem sorry to 'bring up old business'. So what is your prediction trend? I do agree making short term predictions in biotech (and stocks at large) is pointless and financially dangerous (which is why I continuously groan against retail buying short term synthetic instruments) but at the same time what is your point really? What your 'forte'? I would love an answer. Like I think some have told you before: you have lost trust so sell and move on maybe? You will feel a lot better. Biotech is hard and especially hard on the nerves (and pocket book: how to make a small fortune in biotech?). Do you have a point of view about the original thread post and the assertions made? As for me, I make no predictions other than the next 3 or 4 months are critical and I'm not buying nor am I selling. Also, I think I'm going to stop looking at the pathetic weekly script counts.
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Post by trenddiver on Aug 26, 2015 23:41:48 GMT -5
The biotech investment world is always focused on the next catalyst that will drive their favorite stock to the moon. We wait with baited breath for the next great news and are either overjoyed at the news or overly disappointed when the news doesn't meet our amped up expectations. A stock then gets driven up or down. Unfortunately, Mannkind stock is deeply mired in this repetitive cycle. It is worse for Mnkd because this cycle is being exacerbated by intense short interest. Will this ever change?
I believe it will and I believe that change will begin next month. Matt Pfeffer, Mnkd CFO, has mentioned on different occasions that he wants the company to be known for delivering on its promises. Therefore, Mnkd has tried to give out news that is newsworthy and not get caught up in announcing every little bit of news. This has frustrated many investors who believe the only way for this stock to go up is to have that next bit of news drive the stock up. Mnkd management is trying to break that cycle and change Wallstreet's view that this company is still a biotech start up that is hanging on for dear life. They are not. In fact, I have noticed small things that show me they are maturing as a company. I don't know if many on this board have noticed, but Mnkd quietly adopted the same approach Sanofi uses for making presentations. They now use Powerpoint slides for their presentations. I remember so many Mnkd quarterly conference calls where there was nothing to look at. Sanofi has very professional presentations and Mnkd has adopted that approach. Mnkd is a company that is maturing and morphing into a long term big Pharma company. Mnkd is being careful not to make any promises they cannot deliver on, a good approach in my book.
So why August? I believe that there will be enough cumulative news from Sanofi and Mannkind to convince Wallstreet that Mnkd is a force to be reckoned with. Notice how I did not mention Afrezza as force to be reckoned with, but the company. Mnkd is so much more than just Afrezza. Can you say Technosphere? The following list of news that I believe we will hear that should help show that Mnkd is here to stay:
1. $100 Million Convertible Notes Issue will be resolved one way or the other. I believe the terms will just be renegotiated. Just like any other big company would handle it.
2. The Quarterly Report from Sanofi will be positive. It will show that income from Afrezza has grown from the previous quarter by several times or more. Perhaps we will get a surprise and Sanofi will speak more about several items like a launch in another country, DTC advertising, and other plans for Afrezza.
3. The Quarterly Report from Mnkd will be positive. The balance sheet will continue to show improvement. It will show lower expenses and revenue from Afrezza sales. Also, I believe there will be further clarification on Technosphere plans.
At some point, bigger players on Wallstreet will recognize the amazingly positive risk/reward profile that can be found in Mannkind stock. Once this happens, the short players will no longer be able to control the stock price. Once the stock price cannot be held down, then there is blood in the water and the sharks will eat their own. I believe August will be the turning point.
Sorry to bring up old business but this prediction was one of the worst we've seen. With 3 trading days left in the month, the share price is down nearly 40% since the date of your prediction ($5.46). Every reason given to support your conclusion was also wrong. I'm afraid forecasting is not your forte. trend
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Post by trenddiver on Aug 24, 2015 0:38:28 GMT -5
You may be right about an imminent rebound but we all know the disclaimer, "Past results do not guaranty future..." Many are also claiming that the market as a whole has just turned and is now, officially, a bear market. Looking at the performance of my biotech holdings and stocks on watch over the past month seems to support the claim. I'm not about to ignore that, but there are other indicators besides the MNKD chart that are suggesting that an inflection point is near. I, for one, am not entirely convinced that when Matt Pfeffer stated a few months ago that he expected share price to be much better in August, that he was referring to resolution of the debt. We have a number of trading days left in August, so we'll see if Matt was giving us a hint, as I suspect he was (I'm on record with that belief) of something else. Regardless, since I am not a day trader, and I agree with Nate Pile that MNKD is a once in a lifetime stock, every day of accumulating at these levels is a good buy. Some may wait longer, thinking share price may drop as low as $3, but I'm not too concerned with hitting the exact bottom. One single announcement could make even $5-$7 per share a thing of the past. Greed can make people hold too long, but it can also cause them to wait too long for an excellent entry point and miss the bus. Up or down, I am continuing to accumulate MNKD, but I'm also keeping some dry powder reserved for the unexpected. Good fortune all. Stop deluding yourself. Matt Pfeffer has as much information and knowledge about the future stock price as "the man in the moon". As Cramer once said speaking about The Fed, "They know nothing!!!
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Post by trenddiver on Aug 20, 2015 2:24:54 GMT -5
To each their own, I guess... as the membership count has gone up (closing in on 1700 now), surprise! We get more posts! So yes, there's quantity. However, I completely disagree about the quality. I think it's high as hell. I never cease to be amazed at the thoughtfulness that goes into so many of the posts I read here. There's little doubt in my mind, and I suspect not much in anyone else's, that members here pour their hearts out w/r/t how they're thinking/feeling about MNKD and Afrezza. As we are not privy to any of the byzantine business/financial dealing going on behind closed doors at MNKD and SFY, all anyone here can do is speculate, and we (the staff) do our best to create a conducive environment for such speculation. If honest, often out-of-the-box thinking is not your cup of tea, just go away, but don't smear the community here by characterizing the posting as having "little quality", because that's just wrong and condescending. I was planning on slipping quietly into the night but changed my mind because forums like this, with its 1700 members, do make a difference, sometimes a detrimental one. BD, I must say I'm extremely disappointed with your attitude. In your comment above, you say "If honest, often out-of-the-box thinking is not your cup of tea, just go away." Do you realize the ridiculous inconsistency in that one sentence??? You don't like our "out-of-the-box thinking" so we should just go away. Investors come to forums like this for many different reasons. For camaraderie, to commisserate, relieve boredom, get information, and assorted other reasons. In the final analysis, though, it's the desire to improve their financial health. In so many ways, this board isn't helping on that count. In a comment below, Joeypotsandpans, whose views and opinions I honestly value, along with Harry's and many others, suggests the short position has been deterred by this board. I would completely disagree with Joey, at least on this point. For weeks on end, we had a thread in which members were stepping on each other trying to help others lend more shares out to short sellers. I, who hadn't made a single share available to short sellers for years, transferred my entire position from one brokerage house to another to take advantage of the information gained from that thread. This while other members are crying about management not doing anything about the short sellers. Then we have trenddiver recount his endlessly discussed story about the hedge fund managed who is apparently a disciple of Jason Karp. Imagine if Adam Feurstein had published an article recounting a similar story. I'm guessing we would have trashed him endlessly for his devious efforts to undermine our confidence in MNKD. And if this weren't enough, trenddiver starts another ridiculous thread, again obviously designed to further undermine our confidence in Sanofi and the partnership. Again, if AF had authored the thread, he would have been attacked honestly and aggressively. On this board, we rebuff with kid gloves. We're not the ruffians of YMB and have to be nice and polite. Companies and politicians advertise for a reason...... whether we like it or not, the message sinks in. The same is true when short sellers and their surrogates spout their nonsense on the various forums, including this one. So grow up. You may find our comments wrong and condescending, but the amount of garbage that's posted on this board nullifies a lot of the quality comments and information that is also posted. I won't even bother to comment on your silly "all anyone here can do is speculate" remark. With that said, I will relinquish my membership. Go see a therapist and soon, you are troubled.
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Post by trenddiver on Aug 20, 2015 2:19:41 GMT -5
The moderators of this board are all volunteers. They spend their time keeping track of "all" the posts which is not an easy job. We need to be grateful to them for keeping it "sane" if you will as we have all seen how YMB can get pretty dirty at times. I feel it's not just a message board but a family of sorts. We all have a common bond, "mnkd" and to be able to relate to someone about the stock, the ups and downs, is somewhat comforting in a way. There are many more posts as of late but you just read the post that interest you. I love this board and all the moderators. Keep up the great work. Coco Coco, you're such a company girl! I think Coco needs to cozy up with Al again, maybe she can relight his fire!!!
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Post by trenddiver on Aug 20, 2015 2:11:06 GMT -5
Suppose that Sanofi actually did pull the plug in the 1st or 2nd quarter of 2016 and left Mannkind with 100% ownership of Afrezza. Although we would probably see a much lower SP for a while, I believe Mannkind might be better off in the long run for the following reasons:
1. Much of the heavy lifting would have been already completed. 2. Sanofi would have paid 2/3 of the start up expenses currently running at around $35 million per quarter. So at the time of the termination, Sanofi would have paid somewhere between $150-200 million of expenses in connection with the launch, additional studies, and world wide approvals. 3. Mannkind would have received at least $200 million in milestone payments which are non refundable to Sanofi 4. Yes, Mannkind would have to develop its own sales force and hire some experienced executives with a drug commercialization background. 5. Mannkind may have to raise additional capital to do this which would mean some dilution.
For me, I would feel much better about Mannkind and its ability to control its own destiny with Afrezza and not be beholden to Sanofi's commercialization launch program or possible conflicts of interest. Further there would be much more accountability to shareholders for the success or failure of Afrezza. But the bottom line is that although the costs of going alone might be steep, the benefit to shareholders of owning 100% of the upside could far outweigh the costs.
Trend With respect Trend, how is this new thread much different from the general tone you created in the FWIW thread? It sounds to me like your hedgie friend created some doubt in your stated long position. I recommend the two threads be combined and labeled "Short thesis on viablity of the Sanofi-Mannkind partnership. Chris C My doubts in my long position have to do with the reality of pitiful script counts I see every Friday, and my recalculation of the market cap of Mannkind based on the pitiful script revenue and the lack of transparency about future Technosphere technology in terms of contributing to the valuation of the Company. I have to admit, I got sucked into all of the hype when we went spent countless days and weeks forecasting what Afrezza sales were going to be after approval, and how that was going to translate into a SP. Now I'm reverting to my prior life, when I was a bean-counter, so I'm looking close at the real numbers which are growing at a miniscule pace weekly. As to this current thread, I'm seeking the boards thoughts about the possibility of life after Sanofi, should that occur. It's clear from my comments that I'm thinking maybe we'd be better off without Sanofi (so far I'm very unimpressed with Sanofi). Of course it would require that Al Mann bring in a whole new management team to lead a new charge. As you can tell I'm not real bullish on the stock but I haven't sold a share, nor have I bought any shares at these low prices. I agree with the other posters who have said that the next few months are critically important to the Company and I hope I am wrong about Sanofi. Trend
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