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Post by trenddiver on Jun 4, 2014 21:16:48 GMT -5
Maybe Big Al is lending his shares and earning an extra 6 1/2 %. I don't think he is bothered by the large short position. It's kinds like feeding the hogs before the slaughter.
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Post by trenddiver on Jun 4, 2014 20:32:15 GMT -5
The recent breakout through the long term declining trendline shows an minimum target price of 14.
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Post by trenddiver on Jun 3, 2014 23:31:30 GMT -5
I'm with Coco, which is I'm selling when Big Al sells. I believe he will make the best deal for all shareholders. Every other sell plan is just a crap shoot. Don't want to make the same mistake as Ottawa. Big Al knows what he is doing he's a pro. That's why he invested $1bil of his own money to make it happen. Get on the Big Al Train. We'll all party at the end of the line.
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Post by trenddiver on May 29, 2014 22:59:06 GMT -5
I'd be worried if there was a Form 4 for Big Al. Other than that, any other insider selling is just "noise".
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Post by trenddiver on May 29, 2014 22:44:48 GMT -5
Per Matt, I think that Deerfield has already converted. I thought I saw something to that effect in the most recent 10Q.
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Post by trenddiver on May 29, 2014 21:45:51 GMT -5
Just wondering do you have a breakdown of how you reached 500 million shares?
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Post by trenddiver on May 29, 2014 3:24:01 GMT -5
I own both warrants and shares. When the spread is very narrow at it is now, warrants are the best play. As an example, if you want to control by purchase 6000 shares of stock at today's closing, it will cost you 6000 x 8.17= $49,020. If you want to use warrants to control the same 6000 shares and it will cost you $35,100 (10,000 x 3.51). You will have to come up with an additional $14,400 in Jan 2016 if you want to own the shares or you can just sell the warrant. Yes, the market is not as liquid, but that may change as we get closer to warrants expiration date. Effectively you are deferring $14,400 of the purchase at a cost of $480. The price of the warrant should pretty much follow the price of the stock at a ratio of .6 to 1.00. That is for every dollar the stock goes up, the warrant will go up .60, because each warrant entitles the holder to purchase .6 of a share.
The January 16 2.50 call is also a reasonable way to control the shares. To control 6000 shares through the Jan. 2016 calls, it will cost you $33,900 (based on today's close of $5.65 ), plus an additional cost of $15,000 (6000 sh x 2.50) at the time of exercise.
Thus the totals look like this for an purchase of 6000 sh.
Outright purchase $49,020 Warrants - $35,100 now + 14,400 in Jan. 2016 - $49,500 Call options - $33,900 now + $15,000 in Jan. 2016 - $48,900.
In conclusion It seems that Jan. 2016 $2.50 call options is the lest expensive way to control the shares today. The results could change based on bid / ask pricing. I view the risk for all three of these methods to be equivalent ( except for market liquidity. )
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Post by trenddiver on May 27, 2014 15:34:49 GMT -5
The warrants seem very underpriced at $3.47 giving a stock equivalent price of $8.15 per share for basically what amounts to a Jan. 2016 call. The Jan 2016 2.50 call is priced at 5.60 or $8.10 equivalent which also seems very cheap. It seems both of these derivatives give very little time or leverage premium. Maybe some of the Board's derivative experts can comment.
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Post by trenddiver on May 23, 2014 17:39:25 GMT -5
I think we ought to ask the 3 nursies to plan the celebration party when we finally get FDA approval. A hot tub party sounds pretty interesting to me! Maybe we can do it in Vegas, where Al lives. I'm sure Big Al would love to attend.
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Post by trenddiver on May 23, 2014 0:25:25 GMT -5
Nice takes Baba. It's always fun having you around.
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Post by trenddiver on May 23, 2014 0:20:07 GMT -5
Re#3
As to a the insulin, it was kinda weird. They've been saying along that they had all this insulin in safekeeping and someone raised the question about the insulin in the q&a. Specifically the question had to do with whether this insulin, which has been expensed for financial statement purposes should be reclassified as an asset if FDA approval was obtained. Matt said no, and Al broke in and said something about 10,000,000 doses for a year, and then they backtracked and started saying they probably couldn't use it all and that the FDA might have something to say.
So after the meeting I spoke to Matt and asked him what the replacement cost was of the insulin. He said something like 300 - 400 hundred million dollars. I was stunned that we had such a large "hidden" asset. And then he brought up something about a new insulin and the left to go off to a Board meeting. So that's the color.
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Post by trenddiver on May 23, 2014 0:06:59 GMT -5
I did mean Deerfield. I was interested in the company's take on the short interest. So I asked about it and specifically asked whether it was likely that Deerfield had a large short position. The answer was that Deerfield has been helpful and flexible with financing as it relates to Mannkind's needs. The point was that Deerfield made a big bet with Mannkind and will make large returns if a Mannkind is successful. So the likelihood of a large short interest by Deerfield was not high.
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Post by trenddiver on May 22, 2014 15:58:20 GMT -5
No discussion of projected revenue and expense. Kind of meaningless until approval and partnership announced.
There was some discussion after the meeting with Hakan about the foreign buyer (which is still out there). Basically again until approval by the FDA and partnership announcements there really wasnt anything he could discuss.
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Post by trenddiver on May 22, 2014 15:29:44 GMT -5
Did you ask any questions? I believe every relevant question that could be asked, was asked. And afterwards, you could have discussed any questions or concerns with Hakan, Al or Matt.
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Post by trenddiver on May 22, 2014 15:03:54 GMT -5
Some of my takeaways were after the meeting in conversations with Mannkind employees - especially regarding Deerfield.
Also Hakan specifically said that discussions with the FDA were between Mnkd and the FDA. Expertise and advice regarding dealing with the FDA came from many sources including potential partners.
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