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Post by stevil on Apr 6, 2016 19:17:00 GMT -5
Thank you!
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Post by stevil on Apr 6, 2016 18:53:58 GMT -5
The patent for Afrezza is only good until 2020. I don't know how much that patent protects, whether that be just the binding of insulin to FDKP, the manufacturing process, etc. There are ways to extend patents to give us more time with it, but depending on how much the patent protects, it might be possible that Afrezza will be fairly worthless in just 4 years if a competing generic becomes available. I have no idea if a generic manufacturer will sink in the money necessary to figure out FDKP, but it's a possibility. Point is, Afrezza probably shouldn't be looked to as a long-term solution for money. I wouldn't mind selling it off at this point if it will help us develop the rest of our portfolio. It'd almost make sense to get what we can for it and move on, depending on how difficult it is to get market acceptance. Of course, no one will want it if 2 tries were made and still no uptake. Are you sure that is right about 2020? That doesn't seem right , but I can't remember for sure. Also, to be honest, you don't seem too sure? ? I try to only be "sure" of the things I'm really "sure" about. I apologize sometimes for sounding more sure than I am on some things. I try to delineate between when I know what I'm talking about and when I'm unsure, but sometimes I state things rather than asking questions... So, to answer your question, I'm not "sure" that 2020 is the correct date because I haven't really done a ton of research. I found a site that said 2020. Just google Afrezza patent expiration date and you'll hopefully find a source you trust. I've linked the one below that told me 2020. Since it's a pro Afrezza site, I would assume it was accurate. www.gurufocus.com/news/253025/time-to-gamble-on-mannkinds-afrezza
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Post by stevil on Apr 6, 2016 16:21:39 GMT -5
If I'm wrong I don't mind being called out. This board takes things way too personally sometimes. I'm not aware of what all MNKD has patented or how they've protected themselves.
For instance, the dreamboat is needed to produce the proper aerodynamics to reach the lungs. Without it, it's possible the FDKP molecule wouldn't reach its target. Now, I'm not a physicist, but I'd imagine this would be a surmountable hurdle, but it'd certainly buy MNKD additional time as whatever generic manufacturer that tried to solve the FDKP problem would also have to solve that one, requiring additional time and money. I don't know how hard that is to do, or how expensive it will end up being for that company, but very few problems in life are "impossible".
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Post by stevil on Apr 6, 2016 15:58:45 GMT -5
The patent for Afrezza is only good until 2020. I don't know how much that patent protects, whether that be just the binding of insulin to FDKP, the manufacturing process, etc. There are ways to extend patents to give us more time with it, but depending on how much the patent protects, it might be possible that Afrezza will be fairly worthless in just 4 years if a competing generic becomes available. I have no idea if a generic manufacturer will sink in the money necessary to figure out FDKP, but it's a possibility. Point is, Afrezza probably shouldn't be looked to as a long-term solution for money. I wouldn't mind selling it off at this point if it will help us develop the rest of our portfolio. It'd almost make sense to get what we can for it and move on, depending on how difficult it is to get market acceptance. Of course, no one will want it if 2 tries were made and still no uptake. I don't have time nor the inclination to explain. If you believe what you wrote, you should have sold and walked away. MNKD has around 1000 patents. In 90 yrs, nobody else ever did what MNKD did over the course of 15 yrs or so. RLS just did a deal with MNKD for know-how. Amphastar's primary business is producing generics that are HARD to make. Coincidence? Give me a break. No offense, but based on your postings, you are still in school. Real world experience could help you a lot. Good luck. Sincerely. I'm not worried. As Al Mann said, reaching 400 million diabetics IS the challenge that remains. That will be BILLIONS in revenue per year, not just one. On topic, SNY has no rights of refusal for anything after termination completes. MNKD has debt obligations to SNY. That's all. No offense taken by you or anyone else on here. I'm not looking for validation on here nor am i bruised by internet tough guys. What I was saying is that the patents will no longer protect Afrezza. Note the sentence - I have no idea if a generic manufacturer... I didn't say that it would happen. i simply stated it could. Make no mistake, if Afrezza ever takes off, and a generic manufacturer wants to figure it out and thinks it would be a good business decision, they will figure it out. Al Mann wasn't the only intelligent human being to ever walk the earth. With all the data in the world being collected into databases, learning is accelerated. Chemistry/biochemistry isn't that much of a mystery. We know how molecules interact and bind. It's only a matter of time in figuring out the process. Look at the nuclear weapon for reference. USA is not the only country with it anymore. It might take a while to figure it out, but if someone has the money to do it, it will happen. The only countries that don't have nukes are the ones that can't afford to develop them.
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Post by stevil on Apr 6, 2016 15:53:56 GMT -5
gotcha. I wasn't saying that charts weren't useful. They can be used with other indicators to make an analysis. On their own, they're not worth much. That was the point I was trying to make.
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Post by stevil on Apr 6, 2016 14:32:01 GMT -5
The patent for Afrezza is only good until 2020. I don't know how much that patent protects, whether that be just the binding of insulin to FDKP, the manufacturing process, etc. There are ways to extend patents to give us more time with it, but depending on how much the patent protects, it might be possible that Afrezza will be fairly worthless in just 4 years if a competing generic becomes available. I have no idea if a generic manufacturer will sink in the money necessary to figure out FDKP, but it's a possibility.
Point is, Afrezza probably shouldn't be looked to as a long-term solution for money. I wouldn't mind selling it off at this point if it will help us develop the rest of our portfolio. It'd almost make sense to get what we can for it and move on, depending on how difficult it is to get market acceptance. Of course, no one will want it if 2 tries were made and still no uptake.
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Post by stevil on Apr 6, 2016 14:17:53 GMT -5
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Post by stevil on Apr 6, 2016 14:13:59 GMT -5
You speak metaphorically a lot and I'm not sure I understand what you're saying half of the time. I don't think you were looking for a response, but I wasn't able to understand your retort...
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Post by stevil on Apr 6, 2016 13:52:01 GMT -5
You guys are funny with the technical analysis of this stock. Shorts covered due to Matt strong convictions that we were good on cash during the last conference call on top of a 100% borrow rate. People assumed there is a settlement and since no news broke people have started selling it and shorting it again. TA is fairly worthless with no news. What we saw was purely buy the rumor, sell the news. Unless Matt outlines how he plans on saving MNKD, it'll only be the ones with blind faith in him that hold their shares. The market as a whole doesn't have such faith.
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Post by stevil on Apr 5, 2016 14:44:53 GMT -5
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Post by stevil on Apr 5, 2016 14:40:43 GMT -5
I'd forgotten where I'd seen it, but one source I'd read a few years back had said that, on average, it takes $800 million- over $1 billion to research and develop a drug. We've got a long ways to go before we can turn into the company we hope to become. Yes, and MannKind has already spent about that much to research and develop Afrezza. So that part of the job has been done. As for researching and developing whatever drug or drugs RLS is working on, that will cost MannKind nothing and from all indications the RLS backers have the money to do it. I'm sure that's true. I forgot what someone said the royalty amount was going to be. I thought I'd read high single to low double digit percentages. For the sake of simplicity, RLS will have to have a $10 billion drug for us to make our next one. That's not extremely easy to do. On top of that, I don't think the 800mil to 1 bil+ included all the misses that drug companies have. Not every developed drug makes it to market. Of course, not every drug costs that much either unless you're unlucky enough to R&D the drug and then it doesn't pass the first/2nd/3rd phase trials. My point is that the reason the shorts have had their way with us is because unless we get extremely lucky, they likely won't be feeling any real pain for a long time. And just because the lights are still on in the business doesn't mean it's actually really alive. It just means it hasn't died yet. It's kind of like someone on life support if you want to make a medical analogy of it.
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Post by stevil on Apr 5, 2016 14:00:55 GMT -5
I'll admit I haven't been spending as much time on this board as I used to. Once I met neurology, my life kind of changed haha. It kind of made me wonder why I'd complained about any other class...
I am vaguely familiar with the RLS deal, only as much as others have been raving about the cannabinoid possibilities. But yes, I do know that they have partnered with us and will give us milestone payments as well as royalties.
It's certainly a start. But how long will it take before we receive any money from that deal? No one really has any idea. I don't really understand why it should be a mystery either to reveal some of the particulars about how lucrative it will be and what MNKD expects from it. That shouldn't really tip off the competition at all and would go a long way in relieving some investor anxiety in MNKD.
I'd forgotten where I'd seen it, but one source I'd read a few years back had said that, on average, it takes $800 million- over $1 billion to research and develop a drug. We've got a long ways to go before we can turn into the company we hope to become. Deals like these will significantly delay the process, unless they blaze the TS trail for us and penetrate the market so that the rest of our portfolio can.
Unless it's been hush hush, we can't even afford to complete a superiority trial or pediatric trial. It takes a lot of money to succeed in this market. I remember hearing/reading one of Al's comments that he was surprised how much more expensive it was going to be than he'd originally thought.
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Post by stevil on Apr 5, 2016 13:47:35 GMT -5
I'm not too worried about Afrezza at the moment. I'm more worried about the lack of interest in TS thus far. Theoretically, all it should take is one hit to really open the floodgates, but it seems that we also need one product to really penetrate the market to blaze the trail for the others.
Even if Afrezza eventually takes off and TS doesn't, we will be a one-trick pony and eventually die off anyway once Afrezza loses its patent.
Because we're so young, we're really leaning on Afrezza to survive. At least for the time being. Hopefully we'll hear good news about those deals you mentioned, but even the $30 million line of credit from the Mann group won't buy us more than a few months. We'd still need money to manufacture the products.
You all are more well-versed in our drug portfolio than I am, but last I had checked, it wasn't super expansive and didn't contain a novel drug. It almost seems like we need to create a market for those drugs since one doesn't exist. The only way I can think to do that would involve needing more money to show amazing study results. We need to show people why our products are better than what's already available. For whatever reason(s), an amazing graph hasn't (yet) done the trick.
We don't just need money to survive because if we get just a little, we'll just prolong the inevitable and die a slow and miserable death. We are going to need a lot of it to really flourish. I hope we get it.
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Post by stevil on Apr 5, 2016 13:05:48 GMT -5
I have no problem with that... I had always hoped Afrezza would be the new gold standard for prandial insulin. I mean, it can't really get a whole lot better or easier.
Moving on from Afrezza isn't the issue, though. Not for me anyway. I know that most on here don't think MNKD can go bankrupt because Afrezza is just too good to fail. The problem I have is that our fate is likely tied to Afrezza at this moment in the company's lifetime. A deal was just made for the first TS application with no upfront money. Cash is short. SNY didn't keep other companies away from making deals for other TS applications. If others wanted in, there was no stopping them.
As many others have said, even if we do survive through another offering- the more you need money, the harder it is to get. We won't be in a position of strength to negotiate good deals if we're fortunate enough to even have interest. I doubt that we've turned many prospects away when Hakan has to essentially beg for people to contact them with interest.
I really do wish I could share the optimism of all those on the board. I've found that you have to have an imagination right now to be optimistic and all my science classes destroyed my imagination years ago. All the theories on this board could one day prove to be accurate. So far they have not been. I sometimes wonder if we're stuck in a cloud of delusion. The longer I stay here the more I buy into it ha. So much research that appears to tell one story, only to find out, in time, none of it was true. It was all just a figment of our imagination...
I'm sure many won't believe me but it will be hard for me to sell my shares next month if the CC doesn't have good news. I've ridden this stock down because I've always believed in it and wanted it to succeed. I haven't sold one share yet and I've added twice, most recently last month when the technicals changed. It's hard to hold even for the hope of a buyout. I really hope things turn around very soon. Not just for myself, not just for us all, but for MNKD. I love medicine. I devoted my life to it. It will be a damn shame if this technology gets buried because no one developed it and we were incapable of going it alone.
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Post by stevil on Apr 5, 2016 12:40:39 GMT -5
One of the most troubling thoughts I have is that if MNKD was truly as confident as they appear to be, why was it SNY that walked away and not them? Why was this confidence born out of mayhem instead of being planned?
I kind of think that Matt truly believes he can save this thing. I think Al thought the same. They clearly believe in their product- as they should. But believing and doing are two different things. If no one wants to buy the greatest product in the world, it doesn't really have any value. Things are only worth what people will pay for them.
It's not that I was expecting a flashy statement or big news. I think I might sell out next month if Matt doesn't outline exactly what his plan is to right this ship. It's not right to ask people to trust him if he's not willing to give us reason to do so.
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