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Post by mannmade on Apr 1, 2019 11:54:14 GMT -5
I am by no means an expert on this. From the “back of my napkin” I am estimating that mnkd will do about $5.5 to $6m in 1st Q 2019 pending unannounced revenues from Eagle etc and about $30m in net revenue for the year. Am being conservative imo.
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Post by mannmade on Apr 1, 2019 11:22:19 GMT -5
I upped the monthly burn rate to $10m from 8 to 9m so as to include the dtc campaign. As for $20m cash covenant they will find a way to make it work out when time comes imho as they always have to date. Who knows with payoff of DF debt principal it may get reduced or perhaps even removed.
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Post by mannmade on Apr 1, 2019 10:46:40 GMT -5
Yes thank you.
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Post by mannmade on Apr 1, 2019 9:46:46 GMT -5
Depends on your point of view. Imho, I would like to see them get exercised as that will bring in about $40m or so in cash, which will extend the runway to the $1.60 warrants and should thus partially offset the negative effects of dilution. Also the pps will be at least $2.38 (likely more) if the warrants are exercised and the belief in exercising the warrants should be that the pps will stay at $2.38 or above.
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Post by mannmade on Apr 1, 2019 9:42:41 GMT -5
Today mnkd receives $12.5m in first milestone payment from Uthr for trep t.
The consnesus is mnkd has $50m at the end of 1st Q 2019
This equals $62.5m as of today.
If mnkd can sell $13.5 net $ of Afrezza in 2nd and 3rd Q of 2019 that gives them $76m of projected revenue for 2019.
Now mnkd has interest and debt to DF coming up in May and July of approximately $13.5m. So lets say they pay this in shares of mnkd.
Without any other extraordinary expenses (except amph) and an assumed monthly burn rate of $10m per month...
Mnkd has moving forward enough cash until end of September/October.
So in order to get to the $1.60 warrants without further dilution, mnkd needs one of the following to happen or more...
the second Uthr milestone of $12.5
the second molecule of $30m from UTHR
another 3rd party bp molecule
rls milestone and or molecule
sales of Afrezza to pick up substantially
If they make it to the warrants that will give them another $40m and that should get them to April of 2020 which should also then get them to the next UTHR milestone imho.
It will be close but it is very possible and imho likely more so than not... GLTAL's!!!
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Post by mannmade on Apr 1, 2019 8:24:54 GMT -5
Wonder if this will help the $2.38’s for April 9th?
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Post by mannmade on Mar 22, 2019 12:49:38 GMT -5
The hardest part will be holding as the pps rises. Imagine when it hits $20, $40 or even $60 but in actuality its only the beginning of the curve. My guess is most will fold way too early, possibly me included  Just saying. Man. If you're "imagined" numbers come to fruition I'd be happy selling 20% at $20, then another 20% at $40, another 20% at 60, until it hits $ 100 :-0 they could and we would all agree then! 😊👍🙏 |
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Post by mannmade on Mar 22, 2019 12:27:41 GMT -5
Love all the pumper. Mannkind revenue & beyond will be more than Amazon, 100 B words. SP is suppressing to $1000 a share. See who is a pumper number one or loser? XDD... why don’t you take it to yahoo! ? |
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Post by mannmade on Mar 22, 2019 10:19:58 GMT -5
Ok so today's scripts on the face of it suck! But what is the real mnkd story today? Imho, it is the following:
1. I beleive that scripts and revenue are being cannabalized by the current discount program offering Afrezza for $4 per day. If all 1,000 (or more scripts) have been signed up for then that would likely put mnkd over 700 scripts per week and $1m in gross revenue per week. The good news in this, is that despite the discount program symphony script counts are holding steady and so is revenue to a certain degree. The better news is that with a little luck, mnkd will retain most of these new (or old) scripts and when they hit the market at the end of the year we should see a significant jump in scripts on top of the slow and steady pace we are at. And the holiday bump.
2. I have stated before, as have others, that I do not beleive the advertising will lead to hockey stick growth, but that is no reason to panic. First the advertising is necessary to a degree, imho, to maintain and build awareness with doctors, pwd and ins, etc., as well as Wall Street that mnkd is here to stay.
Whether you like the commercial or not (I personally think it should be redone to be more targeted in it's messaging since the label change) it is causing awareness. Second, I think the likely jump in scripts will come, as I have stated before, once Afrezza is approved by the FDA for peds use and is on the market. In the meantime, there is no reason again imho, to panic or sell Afrezza until we see what effects fda approval of peds has. I beleve the younger generation will not hesistate to try something new and less invasive.
3. As stated in previous posts this past week at a minimum (with just the approval of the second molecule from UTHR which seems very likely) mnkd will have at a minimum, (not including the looming 2.38 warrant exercise) $201m in cash/revenue guaranteed (by my estimates) between now and eoy 2020. More than enough to get mnkd to Trep T revenue etc...
4. When you look at the organic growth of positive Afrezza comments and experiences on social media it becomes very gratifying to see that slowly but surely the tide is changing. I have been in mnkd since 2008 and was once very active in working to help spread the word. I remember when it was just Sam, Eric, Laura, Hillard, Mike P. and a handful of others on social media. Mostly now those people don't post nearly as much as they used too. However, I am amazed to continually see new users post about their positive experiences. The FB group is an amazing example of the modern day organic grass roots ability of a community (pwd) to organize and help each other. Doctors and insurance be damned, they cannot stop progress.
5. Vdex is helping to spread the word. Whether or not they acheive critical mass it is a great example of belief in Afrezza. And they are contirbuting to its growth.
6. The mnkd story has and continues to evolve beyond Afrezza. No longer is mnkd tied strictly to the fate of Afrezza. Love or hate mnkd for the handling of Afrezza, they have shown they are capable of changing the story/narrative on the company and as the recent stock price and technicals suggest, WS is catching on.
We are all battle fatiqued from the time it has taken to get to this point and no one including myself really wants to have to wait another 5 years to see this company become what it should already be. But that seems to be the course we are on. Witness Mike's slides about mnkd's timeines. So it is my opinion that all true longs should just sit back and develop their own strategy on how to cope until that time arrives. But imho this train has definately left the station. The good news is that there is still time to catch a ride if so inclined! GLTAL's!!!
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Post by mannmade on Mar 21, 2019 15:59:19 GMT -5
Was just a modest middle of the road guesstimate for five years out to provide a basis for a response to the question. Could be $500 and then we are at approximately $26.5 pps. Not looking to predict beyond where we are at this point. Just as I said trying to give a reasonable response to discussion. Thx!
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Post by mannmade on Mar 21, 2019 13:59:39 GMT -5
It is really hard to say or speculate on what mnkd might be worth at some future point in time. At a minimum you would need to know the following:
1. What annual sales for Afrezza at its peak years?
2. How many more TS molecules are licensed and at what royalty and what are sales of such drugs?
3. What TS applications does mnkd take to market on their own and what are sales?
4. How many outstanding shares?
5. Is the company still wholly owned?
You could make some assumptions about the above and create some numbers to model against expenses for such. However if you wish to make assumptions why not just skip to the chase and say in the next 5 years mnkd will have total sales/revenue of 1b for all combined drugs/deals. If you think this is achievable at same share count then 10x would make mnkd a 10b company divided by today’s outstanding shares of 187m would equal approx $53 pps.
I would suggest we will be somewhere between today’s price and $53 per share five years from now. Just my two cents on the back of a napkin.
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Post by mannmade on Mar 20, 2019 15:56:39 GMT -5
Since the deal was first announced I have thought that UTHR was the best suited partner for a equity buy in of say 20% to 30% of mannkind similar to the relationship between Sanofi and Regeneron.
With approximately 187m mnkd shares outstanding at $2.25 it would cost UTHR only a bargain $81,000,000 to own 20% of mannkind. An investment by UTHR that would most likely be profitable and then some upon the annoucement of such as transaction as it would likely send the value of mnkd stock way up and possibly initiate that unicorn which we call a short squeeze.
That $81,000,000 investment is less than they paid for one molecule and a whole lot less than they paid for their other deal and would likely provide an immediate profit and ensure a very long and profitable relationship between the two.
I cannot beleive if it is so obvious to this board why it has not happened... Or perhaps?
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Post by mannmade on Mar 20, 2019 11:58:04 GMT -5
Thanks Baba but am still waiting on the veins of hold...😊. Oops a slip of sorts...😂
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Post by mannmade on Mar 20, 2019 9:46:51 GMT -5
And I did not include 2.38 warrants which look like may get exercised. Am not say they will but if they do then there is an additional $40m to the $201m estimated above for an estimated $241m received by mnkd by end of 2020
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Post by mannmade on Mar 19, 2019 14:26:16 GMT -5
Hard to beleive this news did not cause a .05 to .10 gain in pps after announced. Oh well, just another nail in the shorts' coffin.
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Just saying.