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Post by mannmade on Dec 21, 2018 11:03:11 GMT -5
Yes they will have to for four reasons imho:
1. To prevent a hostile takeover
2. For future cash raise should it be necessary
3. For possible direct buy in by Uthr or another firm
And possibly if they desire to acquire RLS or some other entity
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Post by mannmade on Dec 21, 2018 10:56:21 GMT -5
More like $125m with what we know is certain.
1. Eoy cash = $28m
2. Uthr milestones = $25m
3. Current offering = $38m
4. A net $ (based on doubling current net rev$ pacing = $34m
Total = $125m
Could possibly add:
1. New molecule from uthr = $30m (do not know payment dates)
2. Warrants for another $38m
3. Brazil= $2m (pure guess)
This gets close to your $200m but this is mnkd so never count on that which is not already a done deal.
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Post by mannmade on Dec 20, 2018 15:53:45 GMT -5
So here we are back to pps pre UTHR deal of just a few months ago.
Is this Ground Hogs Day?
Not exactly imho...
This time around at $1.10 pps we have enough money thru end of 2019 to meet minimal monthly operating costs at about $9m per month and to also pay off DF and meet the insulin commitment.
Also, we have the Uthr deal, with a possible 2nd molecule on the way.
What will make the difference to drive share price is anyone’s guess and am looking for mike to give us some details so he stops looking like Bill Murray to me. GLTAL’s!!!!
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Post by mannmade on Dec 20, 2018 14:20:39 GMT -5
Would be hard for Mike to go after another loan for this amount as would negate his progress over last year on cleaning up the balance sheet. No more loans unless good terms and they secure a 3 year runway. Hate dilution but for now lesser of two evils...
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Post by mannmade on Dec 20, 2018 11:34:05 GMT -5
So on the back of my “napkin” I have the following numbers:
1. Eoy cash = $28m
2. Uthr milestones 2019 = $25m
3. A Net rev 2019 = $34m (double 2018)
4. Recent offering = $40m
Total = $127m
Less:
1. DF $11.5m
2. Amph payments $13m (?)
= $103m / 12 months
= $8.9m per month in operating revenue
Not enough to make a difference as Mike says in how he markets Afrezza.
Perhaps he has other revenue sources for 2019 in mind such as 2nd Uthr molecule?
Mnkd needs to explain their goals and plans on how mnkd is going to achieve them in detail. No more generalities.
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Post by mannmade on Dec 19, 2018 17:33:37 GMT -5
Stock is back to $1.50 in AH. Let’s see what rest of the story is...
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Post by mannmade on Dec 19, 2018 16:54:07 GMT -5
I for one will withhold my judgement on this move until I know more. While on the face of it this move seems like a dilutive kick in the gut, my own gut is telling me there must be more to this story as mnkd does not need the cash today and has never (that I can recall) raised cash early. And as I recall Mike had recently said that he hopes to have no further dilution or at least minimal. There must be a part 2 to this story. Otherwise no explanation for this move which on its own is sure to (already has) tank the stock...
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Post by mannmade on Dec 19, 2018 16:26:09 GMT -5
Usually mnkd waits until last moment to raise cash so maybe the timing is for another reason. Possibilities are: 1. Buy back warrants 2. Pay off DF early 3. Acquire another company or asset 4. Pay for much larger media campaign on Network TV instead of local cable 5. Xmas bonus’  Anyone else care to guess? For continued operations. I’ve been saying it for months now Or maybe it is to buy RLS? |
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Post by mannmade on Dec 19, 2018 16:19:24 GMT -5
Usually mnkd waits until last moment to raise cash so maybe the timing is for another reason. Possibilities are: 1. Buy back warrants 2. Pay off DF early 3. Acquire another company or asset 4. Pay for much larger media campaign on Network TV instead of local cable 5. Xmas bonus’ Anyone else care to guess? |
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Post by mannmade on Dec 19, 2018 16:11:04 GMT -5
Yes especially in down market...
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Post by mannmade on Dec 19, 2018 16:08:12 GMT -5
Now we see why Mike has been so quiet... thought he said only up from here a couple of weeks ago? This will not help mnkd stk go up....
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Post by mannmade on Dec 18, 2018 16:32:36 GMT -5
Also let’s not forget what the two graphs showed us w a diabetic on Afrezza and a diabetic on RAA the comparison was dramatic with much less variations between highs and lows. The number and rapidness of the fluctuations can’t be good for pwd.
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Post by mannmade on Dec 18, 2018 13:57:09 GMT -5
As I recall not much was mentioned about CGM usage in SoC. However as their penatration grows and people start to better see the correlation between TIR and lower Hba1c w fewer hypos from a true real time management of diabetes Afrezza will most certainly have to become the clear choice imho.
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Post by mannmade on Dec 18, 2018 13:24:13 GMT -5
Aged I am LOL because I absolutely agree with you in the above. I see it as a process and this is the start of that process. The ADA has included the language from the Stat study which in and of itself legitimizes the study which Dr. K and the sales people can use. Mnkd May need to do another larger study or perhaps the results from the One Drop Study or the Pediatric study will serve that purpose.
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Post by mannmade on Dec 17, 2018 18:32:05 GMT -5
Goya what I think you are missing is that the new language reflects the stat study results which says the ada is listening to Dr. K.
Also this will give docs who read it a reason to prescribe. Key is that Afrezza may lead to less hypos w no additional weight gain.
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