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Post by mannmade on Jan 4, 2019 11:42:01 GMT -5
1) Afrezza 2) TreT (UTHR) 3) UTHR undisclosed 4) Dronabinol (RLS) 5) Migraine 6) Cystic Fibrosis 7) Secret Think Afrezza is in separate category as already fda approved and on the market. I would instead replace with RLS unless that is secret molecule. |
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Post by mannmade on Jan 4, 2019 11:11:57 GMT -5
Yes think was 7 total when you count RLS and 2nd Uthr deal plus Trep T think it was four additional that mike did speak too.
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Post by mannmade on Jan 4, 2019 10:42:43 GMT -5
Overall I thought the cc was good and went mostly as expected. My one question is, if I understood correctly, that mnkd starts the year with $70m with another $37.5m in milestones over next 18 months and is financially set to mid 2020, where is the money coming from with increased ad spending and R&D on four new molecules in addition to the 2nd Uthr deal.
Seems mnkd is counting on warrants at $1.60 for another $40m or so and increased Afrezza sales. Is that enough? I don’t know. Perhaps there will be one or two molecule deals during this time but they seem a lot harder to come by than I thought they would be. Anyway, I have confidence mnkd will get there. GLTAL’s!!!!
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Post by mannmade on Jan 3, 2019 17:52:42 GMT -5
And still can’t get a rise in share price.  |
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Post by mannmade on Jan 3, 2019 16:50:03 GMT -5
Fairly simple as follows (also a very rough estimate from available numbers) Last week we had 757 scripts or so with a bit over 1.1m in rev. Assuming 50% is net rev to mnkd that is $550 x 52 was = $28.6m per year. Multiply by 4 and you get roughly 3,000 scripts per week roughly.
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Post by mannmade on Jan 3, 2019 11:09:03 GMT -5
When all is said and done it looks like mnkd will have approx 235m shares outstanding based on about 95m after r/s and the use of the 140m authorized last year. To be realistic, I would think pending certain extraordinary events such as a deal for a third or fourth molecule with or without Uthr etc... we will likely need 1 or 2 more cash infusions before break even which I am estimating somewhere in 2021. So my guess is mnkd will ask for another 140m to 165m shares.
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Post by mannmade on Jan 2, 2019 10:22:34 GMT -5
They may have forgotten... |
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Post by mannmade on Jan 1, 2019 11:42:15 GMT -5
As I recall and understand milestones total $50m plus $11.5 in remaining debt. Total of $61.5m so $40 is a compromise for early buyout?
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Post by mannmade on Dec 27, 2018 10:47:53 GMT -5
My expectations of this call are based on Mike responding to the many and numerous calls in social media and directly to him for an explanation of the recent capital raise. I am not expecting he will have an announcement that will make the pain of a near $1 share price go away.
What I am expecting is some form of rational explanation for the raise which may have already been stated with his explanation of the capital markets future outlook. However I am also looking for him to outline in more detail his plans and timeline about how he intends to get mnkd to break even and what we can expect to see in the next 12 months that are 2019.
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Post by mannmade on Dec 26, 2018 15:58:27 GMT -5
Am not sure you understand the real potential and all the upside in front of mnkd if the company can make it to mid 2020 which I believe it will. Already fiscally secure to Jan 2020 now.
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Post by mannmade on Dec 26, 2018 15:54:36 GMT -5
Selling in the EU is just for cash flow and volume (use up insulin supply) Price it at just above break even as the real money is here in the states just like every other drug. Once proven best in class and SoC then can rates e rates a bit as insulin shortage is predicted. Don’t mean to sound cavalier but focus needs to be in states imho with outlier countries helping with cash flow and supply consumption.
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Post by mannmade on Dec 21, 2018 19:09:21 GMT -5
Three years from now I expect the following:
1. Afrezza weekly scripts at 3,000 plus (3,000 being break even)
2. Trep T driving revenue in a $6b market which I expect it to take 10% of (you can do the math)
3. RLS w 2 or 3 TS products selling
4. Uthr 2nd, 3rd and 4th molecules either in late stage development or on the market
5. Additional 2 to 3 outside molecule deals done
6. Uthr (or another company) buy in for 20 to 30% similar to Sanofi / regeneron deal.
7. Afrezza selling for pediatrics
8. Afrezza prominently included in SoC if not the SoC for mealtime.
9. Brazil, India, China, Mexico, Canada, Europe, Britain, China
Am sure there is more but enough said... Happy holidays to all!!!
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Post by mannmade on Dec 21, 2018 15:19:32 GMT -5
It seems with the recent offering mnkd is now just about out of shelf shares, although I do not know the exact number left. This as I understand it presents two issues:
1. Leaves mnkd vulnerable to a hostile takeover
2. Leaves no more shares available to raise future funds
So am guessing mnkd will have to put forth another authorization vote for between 160m to 200m shares (again a guess on my part) but seems appropriate since they went thru 160m shares or so in about a one year period.
I would imagine this will pass as retail does not control the vote.
However, as soon as 12.26 quiet period is over for current offering I would expect some details on the current transaction of why it was done and what the plan moving forward is and how this fits into it.
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Post by mannmade on Dec 21, 2018 11:36:20 GMT -5
I thought we still had 10 million preferred shares that we got back when we delisted from the TASE. wouldn't those be the shares that United would purchase if they ever did a buyin? Am not sure but if true depends on amount of equity purchased and at what price. |
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Post by mannmade on Dec 21, 2018 11:33:58 GMT -5
Not even close of a comparison for so many reasons you choose to ignore:
1. Weekly revenue is much higher
2. Renewals are much higher
3. Number of prescribers is up
4. Almost all DF debt is paid off
5. Uthr deal
So many reasons why this is not apples to apples for the company as a whole which you choose to ignore.
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