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Post by mannmade on Dec 20, 2019 14:55:17 GMT -5
The amended wording certainly is new. It does not strike me as a vote of confidence in MNKD's ability to develop the pipeline, but rather a hedge by the lender in case of MNKD's inability to achieve the good outcomes implied by the UTHR deal. Since decisions that can be taken unilaterally by UTHR affect the ability of MNKD to stay funded under this agreement, it is a new element of risk. How much risk is in the eye of the beholder. As for dilution, the warrants expiring do create risk of a dilutive event. The warrants were priced at $1.60 so that risk is priced in, but with the stock trading below that level any sale of the underlying share will have a different price and one that is most likely a significant haircut from yesterday's closing price of $1.38. Since future warrants cannot be offered on any new deal due to lack of authorized shares, the only way to entice a new buyer is with a deep discount, and percentage discounts starting around 20-25% would be typical (i,e, a discounted price of $1.04-$1.10). The problem that causes is not so much the loss of funding at $1.60, but when a company sells shares at a discount all of the outstanding shares get discounted to the same price. MNKD is literally in a situation where selling the last 22 million available shares at a discount would destroy more market value than the cash it would bring in. That is an entirely untenable position. Matt, I hear what you are saying but you assume that management will want to sell those 22 million shares immediately after the warrants expire. MNKD has cash on hand so I don’t think there is a high probability that they will sell those shares until later in 2020. And when they do, our hope is that the stock price will be higher than $1.60. MC said he hopes the warrants expire at the last conference so he must think the price will be greater than $1.60 before they have to be sold. Agree, and while I really don't like to specuate, the future sale of the returned shares could come after good news such as a second UTHR molecule approved or an RLS announcement. All speculation as is the talk of future dilution... GLTAL's
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Post by mannmade on Dec 19, 2019 12:55:11 GMT -5
Borrowing from a post I wrote on 12.09.19 I don't think mnkd will need the $25m, imho so that may be the reason for the way the deal was revised with midcap. See below... 1. Cash Situation for 2020: According to the most recent Seeking Alpha article, Mannkind will end 2019 with $46m in cash. UTHR milestones for Trep T will provide an additional $25m. Afrezza Sales I will generously estimate at $35m net to mnkd (including 1 or 2 more Brazilian purchases) This equals $106m which should be enough to get thru 2020 If it is not enough or the timing of cash infusions does not meet the date of debt or expenses there is an additional $35m from the Midcap Loan Agreement. In addition, the 12.31.19 warrants are NOT likely to be exercised and so an additional number of shares at a $1.60 valuation will be returned, giving another $30m or so at today's valuation. So cash will not likely be an issue in 2020. Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/11611/2020-bring#ixzz68ZnXR3Ro
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Post by mannmade on Dec 11, 2019 11:20:42 GMT -5
I don’t think the object with Brazil is profit. In fact the lower the price as long as it is above break even on cost to produce the better imho as there is no way to make a reasonable profit and have it succeed. Higher price creates same problem as here, Afrezza becomes unavailable for too many who would otherwise use it.
The goal here is to sell as much as mnkd can. The increase in production will lower average unit cost and increase profits as a result.
And the more they sell in Brazil the more well known Afrezza will become in the rest of the world including here in the US.
GLTAL’s!!!!
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Post by mannmade on Dec 9, 2019 13:55:48 GMT -5
It is that time of year again... Yes the holidays are here and so is the end of another year of hope and frustration for the Mannkind Shareholders... I for one have been here since 2008 and know many others have been here as long and possibly longer...
So aside from any speculation on share price and/or deals to be made, what exactly can mnkd shareholders look forward to in 2020? I must admit I have not been stayng on top of the events lately so please feel free to correct any mistatements of mine, which I apologize for in advance.
1. Cash Situation for 2020:
According to the most recent Seeking Alpha article, Mannkind will end 2019 with $46m in cash. UTHR milestones for Trep T will provide an additional $25m. Afrezza Sales I will generously estimate at $35m net to mnkd (including 1 or 2 more Brazilian purchases) This equals $106m which should be enough to get thru 2019
If it is not enough or the timing of cash infusions does not meet the date of debt or expenses there is an additional $35m from the Midcap Loan Agreement.
In addition, the 12.31.19 warrants are NOT likely to be exercised and so an additional number of shares at a $1.60 valuation will be returned, giving another $30m or so at today's valuation.
So cash will not likely be an issue in 2020.
2. What else can we expect in 2020?
a. Peds completion and submission to FDA. b. Possible further change in SOC? c. Start of trials in India d. Canada/Mexico submissions e. The long awaited second UTHR molecule f. Submission of Trep T for nda g. Ultra Fast Acting Label?
Not sure what else there may be but I am just trying to set the table for realistic expectations on positive events for 2020.
It seems that if mnkd gets thru 2020 with no negative events, then by 2021 assuming Trep T approval by late 2020, mnkd may finally be in sight of a real break even.
Please feel free to comment.
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Post by mannmade on Nov 21, 2019 11:51:05 GMT -5
And he comes from Amgen... Hmmm!?
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Post by mannmade on Nov 9, 2019 14:37:46 GMT -5
Chapter 2 of this story is as follows: I met with the young diabetic woman yesterday evening after work, who is the subject of this thread, (Let's just call her M). Interestingly enough she had an apporintment preset with her endo that day, which I was not aware of, so when we met she was able to tell me the following from her visit...
Her endo had heard of Afrezza, but admittedly knew very little specific information about it, mostly things like its inhalable but may have lung issues, etc... M's endo did not have any samples as she has never seen a rep from Mannkind. (The endo's practice is in Bakersfield for those of you wondering.)
To her endo's credit she agreed to look into it more because of M's insistent urging. M seems to think her endo will ultimately write a script as she seems to be open to learning more about Afrezza and took the time to review some of the info I had emailed in advance.
On her own M is looking for a way to get Afrezza as her insurance many not cover it.
Stay tuned for Chapter 3...
Meant to also add I will be helping her to navigate with Mannkind Cares and any other sources currently available.
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Post by mannmade on Nov 8, 2019 14:07:45 GMT -5
Here's an interesting idea... What if Mannkind were to hire patient reps (one per targeted sales market) to focus just on patients as a way to coordinate and dovetail with medical/doctor reps. How many pateints could one rep see and instruct on dosing each year? Let's say 2 per day / 10 per week / 520 per year.
Now let's say there are 25 targeted markets (I have forgotten how many there actually are at this point) and these reps go to doctors offices to spend time answering questions and teaching proper titration at the offices of prescribing doctors.
I think their abiltiy to increase retention and to help with onboarding new patients would more than pay for itself.
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Post by mannmade on Nov 8, 2019 10:28:16 GMT -5
Yes, I will Peppy. One pwd at a time...
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Post by mannmade on Nov 8, 2019 10:23:11 GMT -5
I was speaking with a person the other day, when she mentioned her 22 year old daughter has been a T1 since she was 4. When I asked how she was doing, she said good days and bad days and being a new mother it was often very difficult to handle both a newborn and her own diabetes. I asked if she was on a pump and was told that she went off the pump last year after a near death hypo due to a malfunction in the pump and that now she was doing MDI.
I am sure you all know where this is going... when I mentioned Afrezza and all the benefits she could not beleive it! She had never heard of Afrezza. Immediately she put her daughter on the phone with her and as I described all the beneifits of using a CGM with Tresiba and Afrezza, the daughter started to cry as she had never heard of Afrezza and could not beleive there was a product out there that could change her life so drastically and improve her long term health prospects.
So I am now going to drive 90 miles one way this weekend to visit them and give them a presentation and educate them before they go ask their doctor, just to make sure they are armed and eduated with enough information to push for Afrezza. One of the prime sources I have referred them to is AfrezzaJustBreathe, so thank you Compound for keeping it going...
The Good and the Bad of this story is the obvious, and it is a story that seems to constantly be repeated... Enough said! GLTAL's
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Post by mannmade on Oct 25, 2019 11:05:07 GMT -5
I imagine he/she means that it makes it easier to get non-dilutive financing.
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Post by mannmade on Oct 16, 2019 12:44:50 GMT -5
MY Bad... as I did not understand that Dexcom had no say. However not too far of a stretch to think they might have had input into the program. I do know Kevin Sayer is a fan of Afrezza and regardless of how the decision to combine the two was made it is likely not by accident.
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Post by mannmade on Oct 16, 2019 11:11:28 GMT -5
Dexcom selected Afrezza for this trial for a reason...
I know Kevin Sayer knew Al Mann and in fact I have spoken with Kevin and he understands and appreciates Afrezza capabilities. Am guessing it was no accident Dexcom selected Afrezza and that they had their reasons.
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Post by mannmade on Oct 15, 2019 18:53:00 GMT -5
Aged, you are missing the point I beleive. It is about promoting TIR over a1c. And whether it is dexcom or libre does not matter as only Afrezza can do real time TIR managment this well.
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Post by mannmade on Oct 15, 2019 14:58:12 GMT -5
Positive outcomes from this clinical trial will warrant revision to ADA’s SoC, IMO. The size is still too small. There need a couple of hundred in each of the two arms rather than 30 in total, and also for longer than three months. It is definitely an improvement over STAT though with the duration making for a big difference. This is moving in the right direction, but it will not get a revision of the SoC alone. Where this may well help is later in a balance of evidence, especially when some of the work on the importance of TIR starts to arrive. The study may not be large enough but Dexcom is...
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Post by mannmade on Oct 11, 2019 20:19:34 GMT -5
Thx!
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