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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 17, 2016 10:25:39 GMT -5
If Mannkind was really really brilliant, they'd pay happy users and shareholders to ad wrap their cars with an Afrezza AD. In key markets where you have a lot of cars like NYC, Boston, MIAMI and especially Cali, this would be the best way to get people to become AWARE of Afrezza. And if Mannkind was willing to do it and pay me, I'd drive a car shaped as a dream boat around.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 16, 2016 19:03:29 GMT -5
One question. How can Afrezza no longer be a fresh product that everyone wanted as you state when the vast majority of doctors and diabetics don't even KNOW IT EXISTS to this day? For example, today I asked a pharmacist at a major grocery store if she had heard of Afrezza, the inhaled insulin. She said it sounded familiar and "is it even approved yet?" I laughed. Only those who follow the stock seem to know it exists but many in the medical community still don't. If they don't, you can bet many diabetics don't. Look at it from the perspective of BP. They have seen a MNKD/SNY enter into a partnership to market Afrezza. Given the caliber of the product and the market size, both parties had expectations for first year sales. Actual sales for the first year will come in less than $10 mln which is way below anyone's expectations. What is a BP to think? SNY sucks and anyone else can do better? SNY spent $400 mln and walked away from a partnership. They may suck but not that much. If I were the person at the BP who is thinking about being the next man up, I would not even contemplate high offer. This bias will be in play whatever BP they approach. I know that Afrezza awareness is not 100%. I think after the failed DTC, SNY gave up and just went through the motions. It does not take much to create $50 mln in Afrezza sales. This works out to about 2% of the diabetic population in the US. Not everyone needed to be aware of Afrezza to achieve a modest sales goal. The actual number came in less than $10 mln for the full year. These are the numbers a prospective new BP partner is looking at. We can agree that Sanofi, for what ever reason, was unsuccessful in marketing and selling Afrezza. Now that it is out of the picture, Mannkind thinks it has learned enough in about a year to do a better job than Sanofi. It's time to close the Sanofi chapter and now sit back and watch how Mannkind does and evaluate 6-9 months from now. Add to the story that there might be another player to help Mannkind. Time will tell.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 16, 2016 17:09:11 GMT -5
I must not be making myself clear on what I am suggesting Mannkind do: As an example, for a one time payment of $350 Million, Mannkind sells the entire Eurozone Afrezza franchise to a BP who would then own 100% of the rights to market and distribute to the Eurozone forever. They could keep the name Afrezza or name it something else. The BP would use Danbury mfg as their supplier which would part of their cogs. BP only pays for what they sell and when profitable, share a small sales royalty back to Mannkind. If Cogs are 50%, how long does it take BP to recoup payment. After $700 Million they are break even. Is it realistic to think BP could sell $250 Million a year for 10 or more years? Do something similar for Asia and the Middle East. That's where the $1 Billion up front comes to Mannkind, then the product acquirer owns the brand in their region forever. You do not realize that it no longer 2014. Afrezza is no longer the fresh product that everyone wants. The marketing of Afrezza failed in the US under SNY's control. The economics for the next partner has changed. MNKD is no longer selling in Neiman Marcus. ROW markets are Wal-Mart types. MNKD will not get the huge up front payments you are expecting. You are only guessing on COGS. Why would you create a model based on this? One question. How can Afrezza no longer be a fresh product that everyone wanted as you state when the vast majority of doctors and diabetics don't even KNOW IT EXISTS to this day? For example, today I asked a pharmacist at a major grocery store if she had heard of Afrezza, the inhaled insulin. She said it sounded familiar and "is it even approved yet?" I laughed. Only those who follow the stock seem to know it exists but many in the medical community still don't. If they don't, you can bet many diabetics don't.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 15, 2016 18:43:25 GMT -5
Amph's stats. Has ~70 million of cash on hand. Matt stated something about a deal that wouldn't have a lot of up front cash but would be beneficial. I can see that there would be a synergy between these two based on current relationship and business models. finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AMPH+Key+Statistics
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 15, 2016 15:54:03 GMT -5
The blogger is an 18 year old kid. Typical though, people only want to look at the title before looking a little deeper that 18 year old Alex who is Taylor Swifts bitch is a good source for information. I'm not 100% sure that was the source of the article, it could be from any one of the 12k+ bloggers listed below it. One thing is for certain. It's easier to blog about Afrezza than get a prescription for it. 12K bloggers in less than a few days and yet Afrezza struggles get at least 250 new scripts a week.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 15, 2016 15:30:23 GMT -5
Afrezza was to be the flagship, but it hasn't even had a fair chance at marketing. I don't think it's fair to say TS is not appealing if not many have seen the true power of the platform. I don't disagree with you about Afrezza. And I am not suggesting I think TS isn't appealing but suggesting that other biotechs or pharmas didn't find it appealing enough to move forward. Could be that the real problem is that many didn't want to deal with Al or that Mannkind wasn't ready to take on another project due to Afrezza. We'll never know. But we do know that outside of Afrezza, the TS platform hasn't taken off in over a decade. We shall see if that changes moving into 2016.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 15, 2016 15:15:50 GMT -5
And obviously not many find TS that appealing and why there are no other TS deals to date. And your proof of this is what??? Other than Afrezza deal, that just ended in ashes, what other TS deal is there? We were told one is pending but pending isn't a deal. We know there has been interest but the appeal of it to actually strike up a deal has been almost non existent with just Afrezza. Show ME THE DEALS!
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 15, 2016 15:11:15 GMT -5
What I don't understand is why not going on another year ? If You want to take out from the market a product why You prefer to give it back immediately instead of going on with slow launch and doing nothing with insurance ? OK You can put in Your budget some 100s millions more for a lawsuite but then You are sure about Your target.
First users seems all impressed ! If the problem was their basal products they could buy Afrezza (not for sale, sure) considering also they were aware of the results from first users. SNY knows very well that in the long term what they are going to loose with their basal portfolio will generate much and much more income from concurrency basal products .....
And they could also take their hands on the TS pipeline !!!!!!
No no.... There is another side of the plate that is still not visible !
If another partnership will be done in the future, never again imo with exclusivity ! MNKD should start now and always keep his hands on the marketing side. Please Mr. Mann don't give another change to Afrezza with other BPs as MRK, NVO, LLY and friends ! Sanofi, as many other pharmas have realized, that inhaled insulin is a hard sale. And obviously not many find TS that appealing (enough- edit) and why there are no other TS deals to date.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 15, 2016 15:06:12 GMT -5
Genzymes contract had more favorable wording for their lawsuit than does Mannkinds contract for a similar suit (i would think and leave it up to lawyers here for their opinions). Mannkind contract said "reasonable" efforts Genzyme contract with Sanofi had "diligent" efforts. Sanofi's effort was far from Commercially Reasonable due to Conflict of Interest. Their effort was more like sandbagging effort. The lawyer and jury just need to compare it to Pfizer's effort on Exubera, and Sanofi's effort on Toujeo, Apidra, Lantus. Mnkd has a very strong case w/ ample evidence here, good leverage for large settlement or a full blown muti-billion suit. Mannkind has yet to think that hence no law suit. I think this will be amicably resolved with a check for many millions to MNKD to soften the blow of the break up.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 15, 2016 11:57:03 GMT -5
in 2016 Yes We can !
Focus on patient and not on endos..... Just support endos but reduce a lot customer promotion costs
It can be on drugs too not only on retailers.
I am working in Shopping Centre area and I remember very well since 2008 (start of crysis) reducing a lot Shopping Centre MKT budgets. Automatically We started using Facebook and social media. The effect was quite immediate and not expected. Less costs (much and much less costs) and Promotion improvement specially in catchment area.... During the period our main MKT/Promotion suppliers, still using their experience from the 90s, lost a lot of their market shares and many disappeared (specially the ones linked to press and media). I can tell You that they were so obsolete that they did not realize even what was happening.....
Not sure it can run with drugs too... But definitly there is a possibility. Just an example: You pay a "creative" to produce a nice picture of some Afrezza user then start sending out through social..... If You are lucky (it's needed) and the creative works well You can have the result that Afrezza in 10 days is known in the whole world !!!!!!!!. You have to support strong with specific info available and activities.... During the 10 days a lot of people will "click" !!!!! And You know that Your prepared info are seen by Millions and Millions of people. For example this further info can include actual users experiences....
Can be the endos, then, to call MNKD !
Social media created a new way that it is still to understand how it runs.... Does not mean it is so easy. You need to be lucky too and well prepared ! But there are chances... Sure there are.... This is a new era.
Every one has a friend / Parent with diabete (Unfortunately). If the communication is nice or funny or any case particular You will click on and then sure You will advise Your friend / parent: "have You seen that story on facebook on diabetes ?" Endos will be important, imo. If the Afrezza Diabetes Clinics are to be successful, you'll need endos to represent them. So while you might not need ALL endos, the hopeful scenario is that the clinics will be the place for those wanting to go to get Afrezza who hopefully won't have to wait months to see the endo as there will be RNs etc to help the patient while the Endo who understands Afrezza will be the one to write the script. The key, I hope, is that any patient wanting Afrezza won't have to wait long to get the info and the script as they would if they had to go see the endo directly. The next step is getting better insurance coverage and hopefully that will be address with the repricing of Afrezza.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 15, 2016 9:24:22 GMT -5
oxotnik1 • 1 hour 50 minutes ago Flag 5users liked this postsusers disliked this posts0Reply Copy of Letter SNY sent out to participants of Dec 5th San Diego Meeting (PART 1) Afrezza Patient Advisory Board Here is the letter SNY sent out to the Initial Adopters prior to the San Diego (Del Mar) meeting on Dec 5. I had been asked not to share it, but now with SNY out it makes no matter. I've removed the recipient's name per recipient's request. I've broken letter up into two parts, as it would not all fit for some reason. This is part 1. Part 2 will come next. Dear XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX Thank you for your willingness to participate in the Sanofi Patient Advisory Board for our upcoming Afrezza study. We are looking forward to a successful meeting in San Diego on December 5th. Sanofi appreciates your willingness to help us shape the future on insulin delivery and your experience is of utmost importance as we continue our work to better understand dosing needs and guidelines with prandial (mealtime) insulins. We are learning from individuals that they are using Afrezza together with continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) and are achieving good blood sugar results. We are interested in investigating the use of Afrezza with CGM in a formal clinical study and need your help in the development of instructions for individuals new to Afrezza and for those on injectable mealtime insulin as well. We believe your experience and perspective will help us to: · Develop an in-depth understanding of the challenges and barriers as well as the successes related to mealtime insulin · Provide innovative advice and dynamic perspectives on the use of both inhaled and injectable mealtime insulin in combination with CGM · Create a blueprint for the design and instructions for the use of Afrezza and injectable mealtime insulin for the Phase 4 study that will be launched by Sanofi in the near future. How could it be that Sanofi's US managers were unaware that Sanofi's CEO/BoD were terminating the agreement in a few weeks? I find myself analyzing and asking, "Why, then, would Sanofi gather this data?" By picking the brains of successful early adopters of Afrezza, what if Sanofi's intent was to use their final weeks gathering intel to determine if/how CGM-based control can be used to achieve superior results with their fast-acting injected insulin Apidra (see highlighted sentence above).
Humble apologies if my skepticism rubs anyone the wrong way. It's just that I no longer trust anything that has been said or done by this French pharmaceutical giant.
Very simple. Sanofi is a large bureaucratic company. And like large companies, decisions made in the boardroom don't always filter out to the lower levels until the decision is publicly made. The Afrezza managers were probably left in the dark as to not interfere with their job knowing that Afrezza was going to die on the vine even though top brass knew they were going to kill it. It's why so many people hate working for large companies.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 15, 2016 8:54:06 GMT -5
Interesting that MF focussed on epinephrine. A FUDster at SA did so as well. Is this the weakest of all potential opportunities? No, it's the one opportunity that will be quickest to market. Epi delivery is a huge market. What I am confused about is if someone has a problems breathing due to allergic reaction, how effective would an inhaled epi device be? Maybe someone with better medical knowledge can explain this to me and others who are slow and old and depleted of much money due to MNKD's stock. Thank you.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 14, 2016 18:04:07 GMT -5
The followings resonate with me. A few more subtle or not so subtle things from Matt and Ray's discussion yesterday Continuation of post "Overcoming the mutiny". An interesting disclosure came up when Matt was asked about the size of a MKD sales force in comparison to Sanofi's sales force. Besides both Matt and Ray especially deriding Sanofi's approach as so 1990''s (Veibacher was right about Sanofi's conservative incapacity to recognize a disruptive innovative product like Afrezza let alone promote it) they stated that using a traditional sales force was not the approach that MNKD is going to take. But Matt also stated that even at this point that he is not allowed to disclose how many sales reps
Sanofi used for their "launch". Incredible. This clearly suggests, along with Matt's comments about now being unshackled, that Sanofi had MNKD fully muzzled during the partnership. See no evil, hear no evil and especially SPEAK no evil. This also suggest that MNKD knew what was going on, about the so few prescribers and number of reps as an indication of the limited resources Sanofi was using and still can't discuss it. Secondly, Ray clearly stated that Sanofi's limited success with
Afrezza was due to Sanofi's approach to Afrezza being constrained by being sold within the
context of the rest of Sanofi's portfolio. This was a diplomatic way of saying that Afrezza was given limited /proper attention since it conflicted with or was threat to the rest of Sanofi's Diabetes products. Both Matt and Ray's remarks clearly indicate that MNKD knows that Sanofi did a completely substandard job of sales and marketing for Afrezza. Hence another lawsuit may be in Sanofi's future. It also suggests that they know that given the opportunity , even a more limited one , Sanofi would likely keep Afrezza from being successful. Conflict of interest. The proof is the Sanofi's performance. So I don't think Sanofi, in the long run will be part of the scenario. even if MNKD allows for now Sanofi to think that they still have an opportunity with Afrezza. Like I said MNKD is going to be smart about this. finance.yahoo.com/mbview/threadview/;_ylt=ApuCQzaSm2Q8PL3rKXw7NCveAohG;_ylu=X3oDMTB2ZGV1aW5oBHBvcwM3NgRzZWMDTWVkaWFNc2dCb2FyZHNYSFJVbHQ-;_ylg=X3oDMTBhYWM1a2sxBGxhbmcDZW4tVVM-;_ylv=3?&bn=0243242e-59fb-3abc-8d27-962c7bf26a1d&tid=1452808588953-7202075b-a39f-44bd-831a-b16f12e1f369&tls=la%2Cd%2C19%2C3#tu_1452808588953-7202075b-a39f-44bd-831a-b16f12e1f369And why Matt brought up "exchange of money" that is typically given to small biopharmas when bigger ones end a partnership. One has to think that Matt and his team are going to make it very clear to Sanofi that their limited efforts need to be addressed in the form of a nice big fat check for no less than $100 million if not more.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 14, 2016 15:55:01 GMT -5
I am suspecting the same. Now Sanofi is no more a short argument. Argument will be BK and delisting - (for example I am very very worry about delisting... I don't think it will happen but delisting, for me, quite sure means getting out from the stock as I am in Italy and for example my account does not permit any OTC or PINK) So they try to keep it below 1$ (SI is increasing today). Then tomorrow quite sure scripts will be not so good (expecting confusion for the future on endo side). I wouldn't be worried yet about delisting. The stock has to trade under $1 for 30 straight days. Once that happens, NASD sends them a warning letter. Mannkind then has 180 days from there to satisfy the requirement. And then there are extensions. I'd be more worried about the company running out of money and dilution than delisting at this point.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 14, 2016 12:51:18 GMT -5
That would be the last possible thing Mannkind would ever do. Why would they sell their crown jewel production facility? To get cash! Selling the facility would be akin to selling Afrezza. The facility would most likely only be sold if Mannkind was going to sell off Afrezza. It makes no financial sense to sell just the facility. Again, would only be done as a last ditch effort if done at all which I don't think it ever will be. Afrezza along with the plant would be sold together.
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