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Post by esstan2001 on Feb 3, 2016 20:23:54 GMT -5
I've read on this board, forever now, many complaints about the high cost of Afrezza and how slashing the price could [may] get us better tiering on formularies. I think it's important for those of you who wish to discuss "pricing" of Afrezza, to understand two very important aspects of drug "pricing" and tier placement. ..... Taking a political line from the '90s: "It's the rebates, Stupid!" Ranger, I think Matt needs your insights over the next few months !!!! You could probably net yourself a job at Mannkind I'd bet.
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Post by esstan2001 on Feb 3, 2016 20:09:37 GMT -5
Good summary. The call was mostly positive and helpful. I find it interesting that the Shoutbox was so negative.The two main negative items: 1. TS pain is apparently on the backburner (though I'm not surprised because of cost) 2. MannKind isn't able to make changes to Afrezza pricing/marketing strategies until licensing transitions back to MannKind (this may take longer than expected). The main concern is obviously cash burn until Afrezza sales can be turned around. And, new partners and milestones payments aren't likely to show up for a while. The positive: MannKind remains committed to Afrezza/TS and Management no longer appears apathetic to shareholders. I think the company is moving in the right direction. The Stock is still a HOLD but I feal that the stock is undervalued here. If I had to pick a number I'd say MNKD is worth 3$, but I'm not buying until another partner steps forward. The first partner is likely an international Afrezza partner, but Sanofi needs to go away first. That shouldn't surprise you if you have witnessed most of them, along with the new aliens that come along with it...nor should the increase in interest rates for borrowed shares prior to such calls, etc., nor should some of the retarded leading questions from certain ANALysts at the end of the calls . Other things that are not surprising, over the last few weeks I've encountered diabetics, family members of diabetics, phlebotomists, among others that still have no idea that this is available let alone been on the market for coming on a year now. I literally have had them ask me if they can take a picture of the dreamboat to bring to their physician, etc.
Anyone that thinks/claims SNY has any case whatsoever of a commercially reasonable effort to market Afrezza is FOS. Matt was pretty diplomatic in his description of his thoughts about that as well. When one of their (SNY) own reps is willing to make a change because they still believe this is a phenomenal product for diabetics, well like I said in a previous post, that speaks volumes. A few magazine ads, etc. does not cut the mustard for a revolutionary breakthrough product...label restrictions and all included. Personally, I would have loved to ask Matt what his and/or Al's thoughts were about the this www.aboutlawsuits.com/levaquin-rico-lawsuit-93357/ which has been brought up but shouldn't be taken lightly IMO. My hope is that they can collectively use all this to leverage a good separation agreement payment, so that no legal action is worth pursuing (it almost never is).
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Post by esstan2001 on Feb 3, 2016 20:05:41 GMT -5
But it seems there are too many restrictions. I have said exactly the same, but now knowing they can't talk to payers I can't imagine that the delay would be worth it. Talking to payers has to be near the top of what I would think would be their list of setting up 2.0. Also on the list would be talking to FDA about superiority trials... would they still really be trusting SNY to do that? DBC, in the talk, I did not catch the exclusion from talking to payers... they can not negotiate anything but I would think they could issue a letter of intent to drop price to X once there is a change of control... or is it that the payers will not speak with Mannkind until they are the owners... They need to break some rules at least on this side of the fence, as it is clear they will not push the envelope on the regulatory (FDA label) side... seems he made it clear that they need some innovative approach to social media and networking getting out the word on how effective and life changing this is, without the company facilitating this in any direct or even indirect way.
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Post by esstan2001 on Feb 3, 2016 18:40:06 GMT -5
I think it was a clear positive that they have reopened discussions with regions/countries for distributing Afrezza where FDA approvals will suffice to meet pharmaceutical regulatory requirements. The question is, can they legally even have such discussions as long as SNY holds the rights? One would think that with SNY having given notice, MNKD would be free to discuss actions which would not have an effective date until after the transfer. I think they can enter into NDA's to talk about what they would do and propose the structure of a deal for once the rights are returned- just nothing contractual until they own the right
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Post by esstan2001 on Feb 3, 2016 18:31:13 GMT -5
Overall, I thought the clarification was ok. Lack of news, not so much. They really need to be able to disclose something about RLS. Anyone that is hoping for any near term news on RLS, will likely be sadly disappointed for some time to come. This is a straightforward licensing deal and since the first thing MNKD would have to disclose is a milestone payment, any other rights to release info likely are with RLS, and being an arms length transaction RLS has no motivation to release any info other than on their own schedule. The only thing is... I still don't see how the clinic manages to pay the staff. It would seem no insurer is going to put them in network, if they openly say they plan to prescribe something that the insurers don't won't to pay for. Fewer and fewer people are on insurance plans where they can go to whomever they wish. Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/posts/recent#ixzz3z9QakIHgthe clinics have to have enough 'other stuff' in the plan to help support the overhead. Always exiting (in a nail-biting kind of way) with Mnkd... How can they stay above water in 2H'16- - another TS deal is needed
- announcement of an agreement with another country
- a cash settlement with SNY at closing
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Post by esstan2001 on Feb 3, 2016 17:49:57 GMT -5
nicely done. Synopsis that is
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Post by esstan2001 on Feb 2, 2016 18:46:21 GMT -5
I agree with Matt. SNY tried a traditional approach and failed. They didn't sandbag it, meaning intentionally trying to bury it. I think the new CEO concluded it was more work than they were anticipating, a long haul and they needed to redirect their efforts to existing drugs that were 100% in their portfolio. IMO that may have been the case in the beginning, but at some point, likely in Q3/4 I believe they made the soft decision to bail, and contractually the earliest they could exit was Jan this year. Recall that during the SNY investor days were was absolutely no mention of Afrezza in any of their plans...I for one (and many here I am sure) had a pit in the stomach at that point, but I think we also were willing to delude ourselves into thinking that we were still not into the launch phase, just the groundwork of doc education and clearing the decks with insurance coverage. Oh boy DBC, I could use some of that Scotch about now, and I'm still in the office working!!! Wow. George Costanza's boss- www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/seinfeld-actor-daniel-von-bargen-dies-64-article-1.2137413He attempted suicide a few years ago due to the effects of diabetes... the shennanigans that have helped get mannkind into this state are a criminal shame and really need to stop- I hope diabetics really learn about Afrezza and advocate strongly for it, and soon.
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Post by esstan2001 on Feb 2, 2016 10:43:43 GMT -5
I believe MNKD cash flow will also improve somewhat in May 2016. They should be getting almost a years worth of prescriptions renewing and also new scripts going forward. I haven't read this fact in any of the doom and gloom write ups being released. If mnkd can really get the scripts ramping, then this will be of help. If we are back down to price parity with injected RAA's, and Mannkind can show a (limited sample) history of patients with reduced complications once on Afrezza (and throw in the effect of the new clinic), it is my hope that they can get insurance companies on board at a substantially faster rate than SNY has been able to achieve. Hence, some respectable ramping of scripts. That, along with doc / PWD awareness, should hopefully get the snowball rolling...
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Volume
Feb 1, 2016 14:03:36 GMT -5
Post by esstan2001 on Feb 1, 2016 14:03:36 GMT -5
Just when I thought I saw just about everything...
Today somebody placed an order for 1 contract of the MNKD JAN 20 2017 4.00 CALL for $0.02!
A $2 order?
---
I hope nobody minds me posting this here, only I didn't want to start a new thread for something so ridiculous.
It is about the subject matter, Volume that is
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Post by esstan2001 on Jan 29, 2016 14:19:02 GMT -5
...
I think I'll forward the question to Matt, asking him if Sanofi has established an official effective termination date. of if it can be expedited sooner. :-)
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Post by esstan2001 on Jan 29, 2016 9:01:59 GMT -5
I do expect that there will be one major disappointment coming out of the conference call.
.....
Like it or not, Sanofi has the legal right to impose two more months of preventing Matt from talking about pricing, insurance, marketing, trials or management's plan for launching international sales of Afrezza. Contractually, Sanofi retains sole control of these activities until the EDT and there isn't a damn thing we can do about it.
....
It is certainly in mnkd's best interest to expedite the closing of the partnership... Can they pull forward this April date 1-2 months? Except to delay 'the competition', I see no other reasons for SNY to object.
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Post by esstan2001 on Jan 28, 2016 12:44:38 GMT -5
I believe that line belongs to Rip Van Potsandpans. I'm with you tho, if it weren't so damn intriguing, I'd nap it off too. I just hope that timeline to success doesn't require cryogenics maybe you should change your name to Loooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnggggginvstr then.
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Post by esstan2001 on Jan 28, 2016 12:40:30 GMT -5
LINK PLEASE, I visited his twitter and Stocktwits sites and find NOTHING.
(And people complain about the company's transparency- they should follow your example- we can see right through this) It WAS posted by him on Stocktwits. Look harder next time See his 7:34 am post. stocktwits.com/Harryx1yeah I just found it my bad, it seems currently an unsubstantiated rumor, but if true, the tweet claims it is not a big deal as he was there to launch Afrezza. Sorry reversolo, but your cascade of negativity has you lighting up my radar today, along with the biased press in unison, and the increased short position. Wonder if he winds up at RLS too to help launch that drug... another mutually beneficial loss in that case...
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Post by esstan2001 on Jan 28, 2016 12:29:29 GMT -5
Harry posted on stock twits this morning. I assumed it was the reason for the drop in pps LINK PLEASE, I visited his twitter and Stocktwits sites and find NOTHING.
(And people complain about the company's transparency- they should follow your example- we can see right through this)
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Post by esstan2001 on Jan 28, 2016 12:22:43 GMT -5
AFAIK. someone concerned about AF Theories.
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