|
Post by esstan2001 on Nov 6, 2015 2:57:24 GMT -5
That is the bone they throw us? I hope it is true, but my belief is quite shaken.
|
|
|
Post by esstan2001 on Nov 6, 2015 2:49:38 GMT -5
Tow the ceo line...or break out detailed plan... Sadly it feels like door #1
|
|
|
Post by esstan2001 on Nov 6, 2015 2:46:45 GMT -5
That was all Brandencourt? If I recall Witz is supposed to speak...
|
|
|
Post by esstan2001 on Nov 6, 2015 2:24:15 GMT -5
Yes but did notice they didn't mention Afrezza in their press release also... This is some incredible oversight, considering they have to understand the state Mnkd is in. I can only speculate that there is a political battle and we are in the middle. My guess, the new CEO has no love for Afrezza... Lets see whether Witz defends it.
|
|
|
Post by esstan2001 on Nov 4, 2015 9:39:10 GMT -5
THE simple answer- short covering.
|
|
|
Post by esstan2001 on Nov 4, 2015 9:16:40 GMT -5
IMO- this report (being commensurate with the increased interest charges, the drop in outstanding short position, and just prior to the SNY & MNKD meetings) is an obvious coordinated attempt to ease short covering for all those friends of RBC who shorted below 5.
|
|
|
Post by esstan2001 on Oct 22, 2015 13:37:47 GMT -5
I was totally unaware of this: "Also, at this stage MNKD does not have FDA permission to use the Pfizer insulin, although they continue to maintain and monitor it for potential submission later as an FDA approved source of supply." Is that written in any official document or press release? >>>2014 annual report Why hasn't the FDA approved it? >>>Mannkind must perform some bio-equivalence testing that takes resources, and they do not need it at this point since they ran the trials and got FDA appvl using the Amphistar sourced insulin Can approval be expected at some point? ... >>>Maybe How old is it now? ... >>>7ish years If they can't use it, can they sell it? ...>>>maybe
|
|
|
Post by esstan2001 on Oct 21, 2015 16:24:59 GMT -5
My personal belief is that share price isn't primarily driven by supply/demand effects such as lent shares, but is based on a huge risk discounting built into the share price because of a total lack of ability/willingness to give guidance. Think about it, the company is saying nothing about magnitude nor timing of expected profitability. The shorts are the cause of FUD and that FUD I'm sure effects this risk discounting, but the FUD would still be there even if it were harder for the shorts to borrow shares. Unless a vast majority of lent shares disappeared (highly unlikely) the most adamant shorters (the source of FUD) would still be in there fighting like crazy. The shorters found a great opportunity in a situation with a drug that they probably had inside information would be slow on uptake due to initial poor formulary placement and made all the much better for them by two companies with a tight lips policy. I think we'd be down at these levels even if far fewer shares were being loaned. No matter how many shares they could get they wouldn't be winning if people had confidence in profitability... this is primarily a lack of new longs issue. Those of us willing to take the risk without clarity are largely already invested. I totally agree here; could not have said it better.
|
|
|
Post by esstan2001 on Oct 21, 2015 15:47:47 GMT -5
caveintemptor... All true longs that aren't still trying to accumulate would want price higher. I bought some more at $3.06 in the past few weeks, so if my measly number of shares lent helped me to scoop up some extra really under priced shares then I'm really a Wall Street genius... that is assuming of course that the share price is depressed because of the shorting (as you believe) and not because of real issues such as formulary acceptance which though many believing will go away are still a issues that present risk that must be priced into what people are willing to pay for the shares. If you truly believe that shorting is the primary driver of the price then you should beg, borrow and steal money to buy at these prices. It's a once in a lifetime opportunity with little risk if you believe your thesis that but if for shorts the price would be much higher. caveat, another point: the sum total of all the retail longs that are in lending programs likely pales in comparison to the amounts that institutions are lending, so even if we all recalled everything I think the net effect would be an inconsequential drop in the proverbial bucket. We are merely getting compensated for the risk we take holding long against the short's belief that we are the fools- and they are the ones compensating us for this. IMO the long term end value will be little affected by these 'short' term shenanigans.
|
|
|
Post by esstan2001 on Oct 21, 2015 14:43:21 GMT -5
What I was trying to get at in my original post was more along the lines of trying to estimate the original expectations as to afrezza sales. I felt the requirement that the contract couldn't be cancelled without 2 years notice was pretty extreme, and MNKD agreeing to it meant it must have been pretty confident about its estimated need at the time. So I just wondered how many afrezza cartridges could be produced with 24 million euros worth of insulin and how that compares with the number of cartridges they are actually selling. rrtzmd you're getting warm, just go a little further and you'll come to the same conclusion that I have. The amphistar deal is going to go down as one of the many big blunders MNKD management has made with this product. They made an obscene commitment when they had no basis for volume and they did this just prior to signing a deal with SNY. I understand the need to make sure they have access to materials for production however all along we've been told they have inventory from the pfizer insulin purchase. Even after making the commitment they didn't address how this commitment would be met while writing the SNY agreement. Again, outstanding product, tremendous potential with incompetent management at the helm. The obligation is only an issue during the slow ramp (2015) and hopefully not a drag once we get going in 2016. And it's not one that will break the bank so long as sales make it onto that ramp within a reasonable time frame. Also, at this stage MNKD does not have FDA permission to use the Pfizer insulin, although they continue to maintain and monitor it for potential submission later as an FDA approved source of supply.
|
|
|
Post by esstan2001 on Oct 20, 2015 13:03:24 GMT -5
Too little an amount of shares. Fidelity requires an account value of $250k with $100k in MNKD; Schwab may be less. Hopefully this is a good start for you, if you hold and forget, may fortune smile upon you such that you meet these requirements!
|
|
|
Post by esstan2001 on Oct 16, 2015 19:10:12 GMT -5
mnholdem the biggest markups are for cancer drugs, often 90+% profit. Because the patient is desperate. The big pharmas say they need the money for innovation and research but the trends have been to downsize research, merge and lay off staff, and generously reward shareholders, B.O.D. and the usual cronies. Seriously, most of the new ideas come out of universities with almost no compensation, the big corporations have legal staff by the hundreds to sponsor and poach. I am certain that Al Mann himself would agree that most pharma prices are obscene. You can't improve much on what nature already offered. Al may likely agree, but for reasons he stated to Margaret Hamburg at some Michael Milken Institute annual gathering a few years ago, and even before the Skrelli incident- that it costs way too much for a company to develop a drug that jumps all the hurdles put into place by overzealous regulators at the FDA that have no concept how to make a rational benefit / risk assessment; IMO (from this and other drug Advisory committee meetings that I followed) I believe they are now so risk averse that they only know how to cover their arses to protect their cushy govmnt jobs. There is a youtube video of it that I am sure you can find if you search Al Mann, FDA, Milken Institute; I think start listening starting around 53 minutes in to catch Al.
|
|
|
Post by esstan2001 on Oct 16, 2015 9:41:00 GMT -5
I wouldn't look too hard at the tea leaves, folks. In the (imo unlikely) event that Sanofi decides to discontinue the relationship, the decision will be made multiple management layers above the people who are arranging trials, managing conference agendas and writing marketing. They will be as surprised as we are and likely also as concerned, since the odds are good their jobs are on the line. exactly and I have seen that many times - happens in every business Those upper level managers will be balancing the rollout costs against the lost opportunity cost of not having a good prandial insulin in their portfolio. It seems they are keeping a tight reign on these rollout expenses, and I also believe considering AZN's recent setback that Afrezza just became more valuable in the T2 market. My estimation is that the scales are strongly tipped in favor of maintaining the partnership.
|
|
|
Post by esstan2001 on Oct 16, 2015 8:21:12 GMT -5
Great find mssc. Reading this article, you really begin to understand the unrecognized value built into FDKP and this whole platform technology. Seeing that MNKD has taken every step along the way to legally protect every important aspect the technology developed tends to reinforce this value proposition.
|
|
|
Post by esstan2001 on Oct 16, 2015 7:51:55 GMT -5
Ha y'all need to chill.... JPG, I use reason and logic when analyzing the future of the company..... I would encourage you to go back and read my posts. They're always based in fact and supported with plenty of details to explain why I reach the conclusions I reach. well except maybe for the previous post where you so eloquently addressed it's deficiency: Sorry, I didn't look at what was written. I briefly skimmed over the print and saw MNKD and SEC. I see now that these are stock options for MNKD employees.
|
|