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Post by esstan2001 on Oct 15, 2015 11:35:30 GMT -5
It really would be nice to not have to constantly read advice about the techniques for how one should go about making their investing decisions...
somewhere else at another IP address, I am sure there is a board for that- Caveat Emptor ALREADY!
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Post by esstan2001 on Oct 14, 2015 14:13:47 GMT -5
Patient-centricity certainly seems to be the direction Pascale Witz is taking Sanofi globally. Listen to patients, then strive to show them how Sanofi can meet their needs:
www.pharmexec.com/sanofi-s-big-bet-integrated-patient-care
Does Olivier Brandicourt also share Witz's vision? I suppose we'll all find out on November 6th.
Appreciate the link, I had not seen that one. The more I read of SNY & Witz, the more comfortable I am with them as partner & her on point. If I have ........ .......... Maybe Al & Co knew that, eventually, the label would not matter. It is just that the “eventually” has taken longer than planned. I like the partnership & the science is too good not to find the patience. Good link, great post- welcome to the board long investor.
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Post by esstan2001 on Sept 29, 2015 14:10:22 GMT -5
...the rest of the educated world truly sees a circus when they ponder US politics and I think we all know who the clowns are... Oh why oh why is the grass always greener elsewhere... Come on, clowns? Yes, we sure do have our share, but no more entertaining than the totally dysfunctional British Parliament, The Japanese legislature where they go at each other with knives, the Taiwanese legislature where old men feign the use of martial arts, or how about Italy's Cicciolina- the naked Legislator? and I only got started with the more Democratic societies... My Father who fought during WWII to defend this (still) great Country always quoted Churchill, in that Democracy was the worst form of Government, except for all the others... We should all still be grateful we are in a country where at least we can complain without supression by the police ( so far)..
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Post by esstan2001 on Sept 28, 2015 19:40:48 GMT -5
Why blame Wall Street? You don't think it has to do with the piss poor script count? I think its all to do with the script's. Seriously? There are pharma stocks with market caps that are multiples of Mannkind who don't have approved drugs yet. Their script numbers are thus zero. The scripts don't help, for sure, but to deny the street games being played with this stock is to be denying reality. Check out the number of times MNKD has been on the REG SHO list. The manipulation is driven by hedge funds, day trading "momentum traders" piling on, investment 'snakes' who shill for short sided interests, and a massive short position that is made worse by naked shorting and SEC indifference. And one more thing...in case you forgot, Mannkind partnered with Sanofi to market Afrezza. The ball is in their court. Many of us, recognizing the situation, are giving Sanofi time to do their work. Blaming the MNKD executive team for Afrezza sales is inappropriate, IMO. Their responsibility is cartridge production, and they have been executing in that realm. I'm a bit late to this party but I think we all need to remember that a large part of the share price is discounting the perception of whether Afrezza is going to be a commercial success or not, regardless of who handles the production and marketing. The fact that we message board longs may be giving Sanofi all or most of the time in the world to do their part really does not come into play all that much in this calculus. And as for MNKD management, tehy have little impact in this realm- as stated, they are executing on their (mfg) part (be nice to hear something regarding the technosphere pipeline). As far as valuation for a speculative biotech with no sales- simply put, they are typically priced based on the market potential of the drug / device / test, times the probability of it's ultimate success. While yes, WS shorts are playing games, shorting per se, is not the major issue; more so would be the FUD, and the hypothecation of many non existent shares being sold into the market. We can all make our best guesses as to what percentages are attributable to each issue, but the main contributors are likely the slow sales ramp, the associated uncertainty and questioning of Sanofi's commitment, the issues with docs adoption rates, logistics of spirometry tests, and insurance. Remove the fog of these items, have some favorable light fall upon our situation, some clarity, and the shorts / WS conspiracies will either fade away or (hopefully) go out in a big (short covering) bang!
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Post by esstan2001 on Sept 24, 2015 12:04:03 GMT -5
My question is, with all the issues (spirometry, label, insurance, dr education) that have impeded the Feb launch of Afrezza, should SNY have delayed the launch until some of these issues could have been resolved? Since the share price has dropped considerably after such great things (ad com, FDA approval, SNY partnership) would it have been wiser to resolve those issues then launch with a big bang (including TV ads)? i think you have to get it out there and observe the problems, then address them- this is relevant for some of the issues, others may have been foreseeable and addressable beforehand, but what if they encountered something major that was unforeseen? I think they took basically the correct approach, just in some ways maybe they did not resource adequately for the launch.
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Post by esstan2001 on Sept 21, 2015 14:49:51 GMT -5
I'm really hoping I don't have to shut down this thread for politics... Any way, it's one thing to spend a billion or two to develop a drug and charge high prices to recoup not only the cost of a fully approved drug but also development of all the ones that don't make it. That's the pharma business. What is absolutely appalling is for companies such as Shkreli's to buy up old drugs (for a song), fully developed and off patent, and increase the price astronomically. I'm not sure how he gets away with it as i would think any generic drug manufacturer could step in, make the same drug, and undercut the price. Given the time (slightly longer than overnight) and a market, I am sure a Teva or similar would be happy to oblige... EDIT- Boy, I gotta start reading all the posts before I bother to reply. Savzak already nailed this one to the wall, that "Smart Guy"
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Post by esstan2001 on Sept 14, 2015 8:52:29 GMT -5
Cost does matter. Until Sanofi can publish a peer reviewed study that provides the evidence that Afrezza will, in many cases, result in better results than Metformin, paying a few bucks per month compared to a few hundred bucks will remain the standard for first treatment. Hopefully, Sanofi has been gathering this evidence from their "focus" group of endocrinologists and diabetologists they've been working with since Afrezza became available in February. What kind and length of study is outside my area of knowledge, but recent cc comments have convinced me that Sanofi/MannKind are initially focusing on pre-diabetics and early T2 diabetes treatment. Most of you know my thoughts on the effectiveness of early intensive insulin treatment and I agree will Al Mann's comments that this early insulin treatment may result in remission of the disease. That's huge and a Sanofi publication of a study that validates Al Mann's contention could be equivalent to a gram-slam. A scenario similar to this is, IMO, the only way Afrezza will become the new standard for first treatment of T2 diabetes mellitus. Correction. GRAND SLAM is hitting it out of the park with bases loaded. GRAM SLAM is partying late night with wealthy and pretty people wait a minute... I don't know anything about this stuff, but it would seem to me that the late night partying thing with the rich and pretty should be called a GLAM - SLAM
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Post by esstan2001 on Sept 14, 2015 8:32:37 GMT -5
when you figure out how to add the quotes, let me know. I am sure I can type something that will offend everyone. ...an equal opportunity offender? I LIKE IT !!!
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Post by esstan2001 on Sept 11, 2015 15:26:20 GMT -5
cj04- hope it all works out well for your wife. best of luck.
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Post by esstan2001 on Sept 10, 2015 15:12:14 GMT -5
I doubt this ineffectual SEC will do anything. Why do we pay them?
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Post by esstan2001 on Sept 10, 2015 14:44:18 GMT -5
If MNKD went Bankrupt would Sanofi not come in and buy up the rights to Afrezza for pennies on the dollar and continue commercialization? I'd like to understand your notion that Sanofi would not allow MNKD to go bankrupt. Could you clarify? They just would not allow a partner to go bankrupt. It would not look good for future partnerships with the company. Al Mann will not let it go bankrupt either. They would do a tender offer and take it private. I am surprised that has not occurred yet. He has enough shares along with institutional investors to make that happen for a very cheap price. kc, I do not think Al considers this route because it would be a big let down to all the faithful shareholders that have stuck with him for the years, and I think he truly does care about those that supported the company through thick and thin. In addition, I'm sure there are also family and friends he has to consider. late edit- I am assuming he is in no position to offer greater than the MNKD IPO price which I think was around $20- Of course if he offered that or more, there might be some happy shareholders...
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Post by esstan2001 on Sept 8, 2015 11:36:24 GMT -5
I hope you have a Plan B! Okay, how about this: Move the White House and Capitol Hill to Nebraska. It's a lot more secure there and the values are solid. Smack in the middle of the country. Put term limits on Congress to two terms. No revolving door until out of office for 5 years. Strict limits on campaign contributions, no dark money allowed. Ban HFT and naked shorting immediately. Require audits and disclosures of all hedge funds including Goldman Sachs. How's that for starters? my 2 favorites- 1. No consecutive congressional terms (so they do not spend 50% of their working time campaigning for re-election) 2. Common sense legislation (no bill longer than X = (10?, 100?) pages
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Post by esstan2001 on Sept 2, 2015 12:09:34 GMT -5
It's a terrible situation, to be sure, but it's the only market we currently have— and it is a certainty Congress will not do anything about it. It only took WS a year to convince the president and DOJ that pursuing the 2008 perpetrators would not be wise...It is said they've bought high powered academic economists at prestigious universities by paying them obscene consulting salaries, especially those who have "seen the light" and oppose any sort of market regulation. Sad that Ivy League Schools can't bear the thought of implementing conflict of interest guidelines on the consulting retainers of their faculty. In sum, WS is a cesspool of greed. I'm not sure it qualifies as a conspiracy these days. It seems more like an arrogant bully daring anyone to try and stop it. OT but I do not think more regulation will help- congress is too good at creating complex bureaucratic legislation that is ineffectual, then brag about what they did for constituents- just look at Dodd Frank. To me the answer is enforcement of the many applicable laws already on the books today (RICO statutes have been flexibly interpreted and applied successfully in the past)- this just takes an honest prosecutor with nerve and an appetite for cleaning up corruption; one that does not get sucked into the power machine. That is where the focus belongs- enforcement, not more myriad complex regs that no one will understand and someone will invariably misinterpret. WE have enough already, and Gov't has gotten too big. Regulations allowing the jailing of lobster fishermen because the plastic bags used were of the wrong size, or shutting down a guitar building business because the rain forest (?) wood used which came with the proper certifications was still considered illegal. No, we have Govt Gone Wild with too much power.
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Post by esstan2001 on Sept 2, 2015 7:13:39 GMT -5
Findings... HbA1c decrease from baseline was greater with subcutaneous insulin than with Technosphere inhaled insulin (net difference 0·16%, 95% CI 0·06–0·25; eight trials). ... Quality of life and overall patient satisfaction did not differ significantly between inhaled insulin groups and active comparator groups (no numerical estimate). However, inhaled insulin was associated with less weight gain... and a smaller risk of severe hypoglycaemia ... mild transient cough was increased in people allocated to inhaled insulin ...compared with those allocated to active comparator groups, as was the decrease in forced expiratory volume in 1 s... InterpretationGlycaemic efficacy of Technosphere inhaled insulin is lower than that of subcutaneous insulin, but inhaled insulin has a lower risk of severe hypoglycaemia and weight gain. Long-term outcomes and safety with Technosphere insulin should be further investigated. Until further data for safety become available, Technosphere inhaled insulin should be reserved for healthy adults with diabetes who do not have pulmonary disease and who would otherwise delay initiating or intensifying insulin therapy because they are unwilling or unable to use injectable insulin. This is what Sanofi is up against...what a revelation once they can use flexible dosing to prove how wrong this is.
Hopefully the wait does not do us in.
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Post by esstan2001 on Sept 1, 2015 20:03:02 GMT -5
IMO- any new development that creates real time and accessible state of the art glycemic digital monitoring will be helpful to Afrezza sales. An algorithm that tracks an individual's response to different doses of Afrezza over time and estimates unique cartridge requirements would play to Afrezza's strengths- assuming the potential liability issues could be overcome. At the least, non or minimally invasive real time (and continuous) glycemic monitoring would be huge! Google loves a digital challenge and has the firepower to do it. I predict that we will see this in our lifetimes (assuming we live another decade)!!!! I heard the author of this report tonite on bloomberg radio; all the focus is on precise telemetry data uploaded to the cloud / patient warnings / Dr notifications, so correct dosing actions are taken, some 'neat tech' (i.e., blood-cell sized glucose sensors contained within contact lenses, bluetooth linked to a CGM, the ability to use realtime blood sugar data to adjust an insulin pump output)... What I came away with is they are very channeled into the current injected paradigm, how to finesse dosing, and keep your physician in the loop... There was no mention of afrezza. Sure, I can imagine adding bluetooth links to a sensor within the dreamboat that monitors delivered dose- that, through our ill equipped FDA, will be years away. And besides, one of Afrezza's key differentiators is how forgiving it is to inaccurate dosing beyond the insulin level required. So IMO, I think Afrezza is mostly a square peg as far as this initiative is concerned (BTW, Novartis and maybe one other are also part of it). But as to the part about monitoring blood sugar levels real time, and having the patient / doc know about it, yes that will be a big win for Afrezza- the sensing side will show it's superiority. Just don't see any automated way to close the loop; it will be your 'Dexcom' telling you what cartridge to take and when I guess. Sure wish Google would find some way to really integrate electronics tech with Afrezza...
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