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Post by esstan2001 on Jan 10, 2018 16:09:52 GMT -5
Using two of my forecasting models, the WAG and DBw2BF, weekly TRx will be near 10,000 by Jan-2019 and that's not even a small slice of the prandial pie. good, because my shorthand bought into we need 2,500 scripts a week to survive. Let's get there fast. ...WAG and DBw2BF- OK, I will take a stab at this: Wild Arse Guess, that one is well known. I can not figure the other one, except maybe the ending , to Be Frank... ??
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Post by esstan2001 on Dec 22, 2017 10:12:24 GMT -5
Sorry about this thread. I was trying to be humorous. It hasn't come off quite as I hoped it would. CCI- allow me to take some of the heat off of you: All my hopes for those that were adversely affected are burning bright. There- some balance with a little light humor. My Apologies (especially to my friend in the Simi Valley area).
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Post by esstan2001 on Dec 21, 2017 15:09:42 GMT -5
esstan2001 ... Regarding #4, I think some things have materially changed since the positive news of the PIPE. - share authorization, the size of which was sobering - realization that we apparently have not gotten meaningfully better formulary treatment in formularies for 2018 starting in January which many expected - growing realization that there will likely be a guidance miss for this quarter - and now with price at $2.50, the prospect of ugly optics for the Deerfield debt repayment in Jan I do agree with your point about partnerships perhaps being dependent on some additional evidence of commercial viability arising, whether that be trial results that demonstrate superiority or perhaps even detailed regional Symphony data showing that revenue is indeed responsive to DTC advertising. One has to ask why partners would come forth now when MNKD has been looking for a long time. We had hoped that the label change would do it, but perhaps that wasn't enough. The prospect of a partnership is too vague to provide any support for the share price as it could be something like Brazil that doesn't change the near term situation. If there were some big fish sniffing around MNKD that would likely become known to the smart money and then we'd see the share price increasing. my point of reference in time and price was not the pipe, it was the authorization whereby we remained around $3 going into and exiting just past, so your first 2, possibly 3 dashes get dashed, as I think these were mostly baked in at 3. :-) But not to discount the importance of what you are saying- I'm sure any imminent manipulation and fake news will be targeted to effect mayhem around the optics of the Deerfried payment as you mention.
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Post by esstan2001 on Dec 21, 2017 10:31:49 GMT -5
Consider: 1. 100% increase in share authorization was baked into the 320-3 ish price leading up to and slightly after the shareholder approval. 2. If there are any deals in the works, as far as any potential partner would be concerned- - the authorization would have to be secured in advance
- there was no assurance the authorization would take, and may have required the time for a second attempt
- A partner would likely want to see the authorization in place before engaging 'in earnest' (hiring all those expensive baba-lawyer types)
- we are now into the holiday season. Deals take time to close, and this puts additional drag on any timeline.
- I'd expect any partner would want to see the results of any near term studies even if the data is preliminary, to gain more confidence on the value for what the market has yet to have embraced.
3. The CEO made a purchase that does indicate he expects the price higher in the future. 4. Nothing has materially changed in terms of where we are, other than perception of any impending deal that IMO, would not close so immediately after the authorization. 5. Still down to Insurance, scripts, and funding. There are milestones we are supposed to achieve regarding the first, which should help the second, and indirectly lead to the third. Regarding said deal, due to these realities I would not expect to see anything close until mid-Jan / early Feb at the earliest. As for the stock price, the 100% increased authorization is only loosely (IMO) correlated to the current 33 ish % price drop, which (again IMO) clearly has manipulation written all over it. They probe every morning for just how much it can take then manage it within a few cents at that point throughout the rest of the day. For the first few days the drops were on lower volumes... it is taking increasing volumes / resources to effect the manipulation, with the likely goal of forcing a renegotiation of the Deerfield payment terms. I'm sure most here would expect to see that the next short interest report will be up. In my nutshell ('cause God surely knows what a nut I am) key will be Study results timing... hopefully there is some mid January data that impacts closure of a deal.
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Post by esstan2001 on Dec 19, 2017 9:00:29 GMT -5
I personally don’t think they wait to release the data. At this stage in the game it is more important to use it to gain better insurance coverage and market positioning. Waiting 6 months to present at ADA wastes a lot of time that MNKD does not have. I was under the impression that the data does not belong to MNKD but instead belongs to the researchers at CO med school. Perhaps MNKD can still disclose the results via an NDA to insurance companies and potential partners. However, would insurance companies/potential partners be able to formally act on the unreleased results? (IMO- not a Lawyer) as long as they disclose nothing publicly they probably can act based on the data they see. They just can't say why they acted :-)
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Post by esstan2001 on Dec 1, 2017 18:45:44 GMT -5
boca1girl: First, you're a female and obviously in need of help in the area of managing your market activities (Sports gets help from no fewer than 200 sources - every day); and Second, by being a shareholder in MNKD, you give credence to the first point. I laughed when I read your comment Baba. You are correct with the female reference, but how does your comment refeclect on all the male shareholders (you included). 😜 Actually, I am happy to be a shareholder in MNKD. But in hindsight, I wish I had a brilliant male consultant who could have told me that the stock was going to go as low as $0.666 after a 5:1 reverse split. (Funny how the SP500 also bottomed at 666 back in 2009.) If we only only had a crystal ball! I’ve learned a lot by owning this stock the last few years, and it has been financially painful, but I truly believe that MNKD will be successful and I will very happy with the value of my holdings in the years ahead. This will be a ten year holding for me. Boca, I think you just provided us men with a teachable moment- I'd hire you as a consultant in a heartbeat and baba has nothing over you! What did I learn? That whenever you hit triple sixes in a rout, it is time to buy like a Devil !!!! 😈 (bet Sports knows this, and has been holding out on us)
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Post by esstan2001 on Nov 28, 2017 18:43:36 GMT -5
DBC, nice typo! "furry" Nonetheless, excellent use of the famous phrase, and you know what Will said in the same quote - "tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow" and that does sound a lot like MNKD, so kudos to you! Don't you know about the "furry" pattern in technical analysis? I'm sure Peppy can explain the significance better than I. I think you have to be able to discern which animal to know whether it is a good pattern or a bad pattern. yeah, and don't they apply furry logic in the decision process? I know that members in Congress do...
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Post by esstan2001 on Nov 28, 2017 16:45:37 GMT -5
Aged, how do you reconcile the 9/30/2017 filing with the following which is indicative of them holding an idea until fruition D.E. Shaw....explains its key principle thus: “Our firm has been built in part by attempting to do what other companies might consider impossible, or never imagine at all. A single transformative idea that ultimately works—for a new business, a new trading model, or an improved back office process—is worth a dozen ideas that lead nowhere.” I worked for one of their competitors and there were a lot of ex-DE Shaw people there - it's a small community DE Shaw is a quant firm (the original actually). They make their money by building complex models that capture alpha in the market. These models involve a lot of different stocks going long and short to achieve a particular result. I have no idea what they are trying to achieve but here is a made up example: Assume they think that a scare in a particular drug is going to push people away for a period - SGLT2 and amputations for example. You can either short pharmas with SGLT2 exposure, or you can pare away the SGLT2 element away from the pharmas other products by hedging out the products (short the SGLT2 pharmas, go long the other components they make). What happens is that you are now short SGLT2 only (you are both short and long everything else so it cancels out) hugely multiplying your gain as you now capture only the SGLT2 move. Mannkind is a good proxy for the insulin component in this hedge since that is all Mannkind make, so they will go long Mannkind as part of the bigger hedge. That's a fairly random example and nobody except DE Shaw knows what the real model was and why they bought Mannkind as part of it, but that's how it works. DE Shaw would likely be using something hugely more complicated and their computers would do all the work modeling and trading. Not so sure today's AI and neural nets are up to the task of doing all the work modeling and trading... They require immense training data and are good at a specific task. Models (except runaway) are still only as good as the underlying assumptions and the data programmed into them- there have to be a lot of variables that they are factoring in, tight monitoring...and I don't think they generate the model on a whim in a reactionary manner- they have to be thinking about a certain trend or scenario for a while, model it, tweak the model, watch it, & then once there is some confidence in the model, the data and the assumptions, let it run and potentially recommend / execute the trades... My point is why couldn't it now finally be the case that all indicators at this point look to a long position considering that this insulin's glucose control characteristics appear revolutionary, adverse event risks appear low, and now it is a matter of a new drug transforming to a nascent / early cycle product with insurance coverage coming on stream, and for that behavior, I can see them having some mature drug ramp / adoption models to depend on... As you also point out, this can be part of a larger hedging strategy, and hedging activity can tend to involve a long term plan.
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Post by esstan2001 on Nov 28, 2017 13:42:11 GMT -5
Exactly, and once that happens the shorts will start stampeding toward the door. There needs to be institutional investment buying for there to be a stampede. DE Shaw isn't going to do it because it's a hedge fund so nobody will see this as a vote of confidence. The problem is that with a hedge fund you only see the long side of the hedge (half the equation). Also given how long ago the filing was for I would expect the position to have been closed by now. Aged, how do you reconcile the 9/30/2017 filing with the following which is indicative of them holding an idea until fruition D.E. Shaw....explains its key principle thus: “Our firm has been built in part by attempting to do what other companies might consider impossible, or never imagine at all. A single transformative idea that ultimately works—for a new business, a new trading model, or an improved back office process—is worth a dozen ideas that lead nowhere.”
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Post by esstan2001 on Nov 22, 2017 13:58:16 GMT -5
You see, esstan, if you can't get what you want out of the stock market, you can get what you need elsewhere. Oh, now I am REALLLLLY confused. At first, I thought this was going to be an obtuse reference to the Rolling Stones. Evidently I do not even know what I need to look for anymore, nor where else I need to look for it !!!! Lastly, I am left to ponder HOW I am even supposed to look for what I do not know of, nor the whereabouts thereof. LOST in SPACE, on the Jupiter II, maybe looking for ATOYOTA, but without a rear view mirror. I gotta tell'ya, it's rough out here... but I can find some peace and a Quantum of Solace in the little nugget of symmetry you gave me. You're the Best, Baba. Whew, that was a close one...
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Post by esstan2001 on Nov 22, 2017 7:38:41 GMT -5
peppy : Enantiomer - In chemistry, an enantiomer (/ɪˈnæntiəmər, ɛ-, -tioʊ-/[1] ə-NAN-tee-ə-mər; from Greek ἐνάντιος (enántios), meaning "opposite", and μέρος (méros), meaning "part"), also known as an optical isomer[2] (and archaically termed antipode or optical antipode),[3][4] is one of two stereoisomers that are mirror images of each other that are non-superposable (not identical), much as one's left and right hands are the same except for being reversed along one axis (the hands cannot be made to appear identical simply by reorientation).[2] A single chiral atom or similar structural feature in a compound causes that compound to have two possible structures which are non-superposable, each a mirror image of the other. Each member of the pair is termed an enantiomorph (enantio = opposite ; morph = form); the structural property is termed enantiomerism. Palindromic enantiomer - what I call phrases like A TOYOTA They read the same forward and backward, and in a mirror! Discovered back in the 70's, driving in front of a Toyota. Big discovery, trust me! baba... Ahhheh. So now I will be watching my rear view mirror to validate your theory, But where do I find said vehicles so aptly named? I will now have to go out and do a lot of driving around. Maybe get a job as Uber driver so I can kill 2 birds... oh, wait, don't I need a criminal record to qualify for that job? This ATOYOTA stuff... Yet even more information to make my head spin... the more it spins the more shares I buy- Please make it STOP ! And stop shooting me with that BB gun- it is just annoying enough to make me mad. And what happens when I get mad? I buy more shares... Mn was right, you're no real Exorcist... but you will be the death of me!
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Post by esstan2001 on Nov 20, 2017 15:46:17 GMT -5
Oh Lord, Deliver us from Evil !!! (Does that mean I need to see an Exorcist? ?) edit... Do I recall reading somewhere that Baba is a licensed Exorcist? All this info... kinda makes my HEAD SPIN Do you find yourself crawling across the ceiling while fervently buying MNKD shares? If so, better get a real exorcist...baba will only try to drive the demon out of you with a BB gun. Hmmm... I was picking off shares a few days before the conference call, and could not understand why I kept finding sheet rock under my fingernails... Oh Boy, guess I AM in trouble!
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Post by esstan2001 on Nov 20, 2017 14:00:11 GMT -5
Mike: "But I think the reality is that if we had more reps or more money, we'd be growing even faster." Even faster than now? LOL, one would only hope. This thread is the biggest Mike love-fest ever. It is not in my nature to join such things. Market really liked the interview. Of course, the interview may have been so good, that the shorts had to pile on this morning. Plus the flap over Claude Mann. But, notwithstanding my cynicism, Mike is working like a dog to get this company going and has made some bold moves, and I like all of those moves. And I really do appreciate his enthusiasm and effort, why, I believe he's more enthusiastic than even Hakan! He's trying to put us in a position to succeed in a big way. I'm just not quite as sure as the rest of you that the results we dream about are going to be realized. I talked to an esteemed member of this board this morning, and he's liking this, and he had turned to the dark side a while back - he's back in the fight! That's a very good sign. Hoping for the VDEX model to grow, that's one of the keys - the correct support/education to help patients use the drug correctly. The VDEX model could well be the thing that delivers us from evil. Oh Lord, Deliver us from Evil !!! (Does that mean I need to see an Exorcist? ?) edit... Do I recall reading somewhere that Baba is a licensed Exorcist? All this info... kinda makes my HEAD SPIN
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Post by esstan2001 on Oct 30, 2017 11:53:17 GMT -5
TV commercial...Fox News, where can you get higher ratings? T2’s Middle America Fox is all fake news should advertise on CNN. 😉 Wait... wasn't CNN saying an apple is a banana? They might try and tell us that Afrezza is FIASP !!!
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Post by esstan2001 on Oct 26, 2017 13:52:55 GMT -5
So DBC... you are finally coming around to Al Mann's conclusion regarding pumps (his last major paradigm in Diabetes treatment) and Afrezza No, my view of pumps has not changed. I think my posts on them has been pretty consistent. Yes I know, I was being facetious and I thought you would sense that (hence the smiley with the shades). It's not humorous if one has to explain it, or if it is not even the least bit funny in the first place. Hmmm...
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