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Post by joeypotsandpans on Dec 19, 2019 12:30:55 GMT -5
3rd time the charm? A close above the 200d ma today would be the 3rd time since exactly 3 mos. ago on 9/12, as well as the 3rd time over the 50w ma. ....today I hit the 60yr. ma lol...count my blessings everyday, time does fly... thank you Al  Another cup and handle forming on the daily charts, top of cup is 1.48-1.50 resistance, if taken out a decent run should follow:  the amendment to the debt facility extends the dilution waiting time for the wanting supply side...this is what Nate is referring to regarding "stuck". There were two ways out for the borrowed side, either getting whole via a BK or continued dilution, the credit facility took away more immediate ways to mitigate their deficit of shares...yes they can hedge the position but as I have mentioned in the past in the end it's a zero sum game and the only ones giving them relief are the ones that continually pay premium through the options to help that position offset the carrying cost and exposure. If you're gambling on going long options or have been for years there have been very limited times that has been a winning strategy (most notably the run up to $6-7 area previously) otherwise being long shares is the only way to ensure when the next binary event takes place you don't have to worry about timing via options |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Dec 12, 2019 11:27:14 GMT -5
3rd time the charm? A close above the 200d ma today would be the 3rd time since exactly 3 mos. ago on 9/12, as well as the 3rd time over the 50w ma. ....today I hit the 60yr. ma lol...count my blessings everyday, time does fly... thank you Al |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Nov 27, 2019 12:17:12 GMT -5
FYI, 30 day wash rule if not holding shares in retirement account - if one were confident that the price would stay down in a tight range between now and the 26th then one would possibly have taken advantage of the wash rule by selling up to yesterday taking advantage of the loss for this tax year and then re-purchasing 30 days or more from today. Happy Thanksgiving to everyone! I imagine I will be using above average amounts of units in the next few yummy days and month with a lot of company Xmas parties etc. Expecting some pull forward on scripts as per usual this time of year as some who are worried after open enrollment about their insurance request early scripts before year end. I will see if there has been any improvement via United Healthcare as Express Scripts was not one of the options available this year when renewing for next year, it is now OptumRx (UHC) for next year, but I was assured since I've been on Afrezza for the past 2 yrs. that I shouldn't have a problem getting my script filled (we'll see as we know how difficult UHC has been lol) Enjoy your time with friends and family. I am still ever thankful for Al pursuing his vision of successfully giving PWD a better and life changing alternative |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Nov 6, 2019 4:27:14 GMT -5
MNKD nasdaq Volume today, 2,515,799 shares.
finance.yahoo.com/quote/MNKD?p=MNKD
the cup and handle joey pointed out is the price action from May to present. Price is there. Talk on the board the warrants are resistance. Price wise, to my eyeballs, a break of the downtrend line allows for wedge break targets. The triangle target of $1.72 breaks above the resistance lines. a break and hold of the downtrend lines allows for wedge targets which are the prior wedge highs all the way to the top of the wedge technically speaking. Good news on tomorrows CC would be helpful. joeypotsandpans and all opinions welcomed.
peppy This is the "1st" cup in a sequence of bigger cups IMO....I'll call it the babushka cup on longer term charts .....the 3 month (Sep '18-Dec'18) island area of consolidation that acted as support before the Dec break is now in play as resistance which makes sense since the infamous warrants are in the $1.60 area. I expect some volatility in a range from $1.50-$1.75 with $1.60 as a focal point. Once that area of resistance is taken out the initial upside target is up to the $1.90-$2.25 prior resistance area (top of the "2nd cup", top of the "3rd cup" is $3.00 and then onto the previous high of $7. New technical term: Babushka pattern  For those not familiar with a Babushka, we're starting with the one on the far right, first saucer bottom within a much bigger saucer...one step at a time, or like I've said before one brick at a time :  |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Nov 5, 2019 12:49:25 GMT -5
About the covenants: Spencer O By the end of October, MannKind needed 12-month trailing net Afrezza revenue to be $24,000,000. At the end of November, that number needs to be $25,500,000. For 2019, the net Afrezza revenue must be at $27,000,000. We know the Afrezza net revenue for Q1 and Q2. Those two quarters combined are $11,141,000. I estimate that Q3 Afrezza net revenue was $6,502,448. That would bring the total to $17,643,448 through 3 quarters. If we take the Afrezza net revenue of Q4 from last year ($5,734,000) to get 12 months of trailing revenue, we arrive at $23,377,000 in net Afrezza net revenue for the end of September vs. a requirement of $22,500,000. Things were okay ending Q3. That being said, concerns arise beginning in October, and truly express themselves with November and December. The company needs to end October with trailing Afrezza net revenue at $24,000,000. That should be easy. The heart of the matter is with the weak Q1 here in 2019. Those numbers will come more and more into play as Q4 passes. Essentially, this all would mean that Q4 of 2019 would need to deliver almost $9,400,000 in net revenue to reach the covenant requirement of $27,000,000 in Afrezza net revenue for the year. Getting $9,400,000 in Afrezza net revenue in just 13 weeks is no small task. It requires an average of $719,734 in Afrezza net revenue per week. Estimated Afrezza net revenues for the first 3 weeks of Q4 have been $600,000, $604,000, and $533,000, respectively. All are below the mark, and with major holidays waiting in the wings, it would appear pretty clear that US sales will not get the company to its covenants. The bottom line is this. MannKind desperately needs net revenue from Brazil to make up the difference. With no launch from Brazil in October, it means that the partner in Brazil is not likely to order restocking Afrezza any time soon. Each week that passes without a launch means that the odds of hitting the sales covenant get longer and longer. By my estimation, US sales of Afrezza will deliver about $25,000,000 in net revenue in 2019. That presents a covenant shortfall coming as early as November, and almost guarantees a shortfall in December. Did MannKind's Brazilian partner Biomm SA order enough Afrezza to make up the difference? That is the million dollar...or should I say...$2-million dollar question. In my opinion, Biomm SA, a cash strapped company in its own right, would be crazy to order massive amounts of product and absorb all of the risk. What the street is now considering is that there is a covenant miss. What exactly does that mean for MannKind. First and foremost is that the company will see its interest on the debt increase by 2 points. Secondly, it will impact whether or not MidCap allows the additional $35,000,000 of tranche money to be drawn. This impacts the liquidity of MannKind. The possibility exists (though I do not feel MidCap would do this) that MidCap could call its loan. That could put MannKind in a real pickle, forcing the company to find a new loan with precious little shares to work with. The proverbial "wall of worry", how many years have you been reading quarter after quarter the "threat" of missing covenants only to see things continue to get worked out...the broken record continues...fear, uncertainty, doubt ...bigger things to worry about, example now that Express Scripts is with Cigna will my insurance with Afrezza change in the coming year? Those are the bigger issues that continue to face this company. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Oct 10, 2019 15:18:49 GMT -5
Please move the broker price wars and how they breakdown their profit/cost centers to the other topics thread, Peppy had to put her earmuffs on, ty. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Oct 7, 2019 16:22:20 GMT -5
Keep your eye on the prize....another exit door closed yesterday (anticipated, widely advertised nearer term dilution, those are now having to reinvent their spreadsheets), the only hedge remaining are options against the short position and those who have to take the other side of that are banking on them expiring worthless...when that gets threatened like what was seen two October's ago is when the fireworks take place just like it did then before they got bailed out by the pipeline funding...the next time the liklihood of that (dilution) bailing them out is reduced especially with the prepayment penalty of the debt financing in place. Position squaring will/should be evident at the close of each day you see "manufactured" sales...chances are you will see it (squaring) in the last 30 minutes and after hours.   Relative Strength continues its uptrend, almost exactly as projected 2 mos. ago, I purchased 50 $1.00 10/18 calls today for .35, I don't mind picking up the extra 5K shares upon expiration if necessary :  |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Oct 4, 2019 11:57:25 GMT -5
This bus is like clockwork...same as how it's superior insulin works, don't know what I would do w/o it. Enjoy your weekends With the "right handle" on things this should make its way toward challenging resistance $1.60/$1.80 and start marking its way towards the $2.25 level again. We shall see how it plays out(currently a bit premature and speculative) but seems like the selling/volume has started to dry up in the current range. JMO  The selling was extremely dry/light volume in the last week or so, today is very indicative of volume/price trend..."right" handle still in place |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 23, 2019 15:23:21 GMT -5
This bus is like clockwork...same as how it's superior insulin works, don't know what I would do w/o it. Enjoy your weekends With the "right handle" on things this should make its way toward challenging resistance $1.60/$1.80 and start marking its way towards the $2.25 level again. We shall see how it plays out(currently a bit premature and speculative) but seems like the selling/volume has started to dry up in the current range. JMO |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 20, 2019 15:27:56 GMT -5
This bus is like clockwork...same as how it's superior insulin works, don't know what I would do w/o it. Enjoy your weekends |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 19, 2019 19:13:50 GMT -5
Wow joey ... that greedy penny killed it. That penny always messed up many of my "great" plans. That's why now I don't worry and just throw in that extra penny on trades. But, that's mytakeonit BTW, anyone see my $37M that I dropped? I can't do options until I find it. Well the bus stopped after 20 minutes but left too quickly so my entire order didn't fill I was only able to get roughly 7k shares at my 1.30 limit, I actually left the order open and didn't even realize that it partially filled until I just saw that the low price in the range was the $1.30. I imagine I will get the rest tomorrow, guess we'll see if the bus stops again in "20 minutes"   |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 18, 2019 14:18:04 GMT -5
Mcbone, Prcgorman, Uvula TA is used more as a guide for trading as well as potential targets for longer term entry and exit points IMO, it has been said that the fundamentals/news usually follows the technicals. So having said that let me address all three of your posts in one. Regarding the warrants, I won't speak for SO but in essence the $1.60 mark is where the warrant holders could trade around knowing they have the "option" to exercise them if needed similar to the "toxic" properties that convertible deals bring when those holding know they can convert with certain terms. That does not mean that the s/p can't go above that mark, however, if it does they have a built in hedge to mitigate any losses so to speak. Regarding moves preceding news like the UTHR announcement or conversely like before a dilution it would be the same idea as when you hear of sudden heavy options activity where the idea is "the market/someone" knows/anticipates something ahead of time. So to both Prcg's & Uvula's question the volume and s/p are in effect moving because of anticipated news that may not be known generally but anticipated by some that know in advance...ie., front running a known dilution event and/or a binary event. Speaking of volume, Peppy I wouldn't say that it's "falling apart" (such the drama queen lol ) especially with the light volume on a few pennies pullback...just consolidating a move from a long base IMO |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 18, 2019 8:34:35 GMT -5
joeypotsandpans another inside day. Joey, do you see a triangle that has set up here? A 26 cent measure? presently it looks like a break and hold of this wedge is $1.69? Then price is out of the wedge and the potential for wedge targets, of $1.92 followed by the march high of $2.25? What do you see? What are you thinking? so if/when this triangle pops up, price could also pop out of this wedge? What do you see setting? (This one so difficult I need back up help, so... since you are one of the best...) chart form this morning only showing the downtrend line, I started to line it all up, and stopped. www.screencast.com/t/pVCGVTHVInside week so far. if...I just have the wedge pictured, a larger triangle, measuring 2.26 - 1.03 = 1.23 measure. ? break and hold of that $1.69 again. two ways to get to the number? I see it lining up the same as you do, can see pushing through resistance at $1.60 and retesting the $1.85-$1.90 area....anticipating it will get back to $2.00 within the next 30-60 days, we'll see how much the warrants come into play but after Dec. should really start to get interesting IMO. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 13, 2019 14:31:47 GMT -5
when I hit up the novolog link this is what I saw on that page   |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 13, 2019 13:44:25 GMT -5
Wow joey ... that greedy penny killed it. That penny always messed up many of my "great" plans. That's why now I don't worry and just throw in that extra penny on trades. But, that's mytakeonit BTW, anyone see my $37M that I dropped? I can't do options until I find it. Lol, no room for greed (unless of course you're Michael Douglas/Gordon Gekko) I put that order in after the initial drop my friend but no worries, there is a saying that I live by, "the bus stops every 20 minutes" in other words, there are always plenty of other opportunities around the corner. Those 10K were the position I took right before the 2Q conf. call which I got at 1.14 and sold @ 1.40, was just going to re-enter at 1.30. I may wait and use it for a reset of SPY PUTS (NOV 15 290's) after this attempt at recapturing new highs in the indices. There are still a lot of things to work through in the next few months so believe the VIX will pop again. So far I'm pretty satisfied with my YTD & 3Q returns compared with the S&P Oh yeah btw, anyone see Dennis around, he likes to poke fun at my trades ??   |
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