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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 10, 2018 9:38:24 GMT -5
Just updating, we sold 200 sep 14 2 calls @ .21 about 10 min ago bringing cost basis down to 1.50, or locking in .50 on those trading shares if called away, remember these are outside our core long position
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 9, 2018 0:01:35 GMT -5
This group of physicians have over 7500 followers on SA and have a subscription service, I mention this because the below article highlighted the recent partnership and UTHR confidence relative to MNKD, typically this research entity follows the oncology sector so I found it interesting they made a point about PAH and the deal. For those of us that have been following MNKD's story, there is really nothing new but for the 7500 followers I'm sure it found some "new eyes" seekingalpha.com/article/4205023-daily-scoop-recro-proceeds-mannkind-zooms-aduros-publication
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 7, 2018 15:55:40 GMT -5
Is there a possibility for UHR to renege on this agreement with MNKD if the government throws any objections? Would this deal be more important to them than divesting of a few existing PAH assets? With the idea that TT (as opposed to TI) can show more effective dosing along with any other advantages, it would behoove UTHR to seize the opportunity to take the "advanced treatment" over existing rather than let some other company get their hands on it. So it really comes down to what future value UTHR projects the technosphere application to potentially bring to the table. If it outweighs/obsoletes a more barbaric treatment (borrowing our illustrious Dr. K's terms relative to current insulin treatments) of PAH treatments that UTHR currently has, they should be able to make a case for it not just from a cost/benefit standpoint but to the FTC as well IMO. I want to add something here as well regarding the long term manufacturing aspect with respect to UTHR taking that part of the equation and welcome thoughts and/or opinions regarding same. If Mike felt like the international sales are on the verge of coming through (within a couple of quarters Brazil/India and others) along with increased US sales of Afrezza, I am not so sure that he wasn't satisfied with the deal and keeping the lines available for strictly Afrezza production. The cash and future royalties along with the intrinsic value of the deal reaffirming/validating Technosphere in the biotech community was far more important on this first partnership than getting the manufacturing portion as part of the deal, was thinking about this the past couple of days and made sense to me. Just thinking out loud on this aspect of the deal.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 7, 2018 14:58:33 GMT -5
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 7, 2018 14:44:29 GMT -5
Remember the term "the Bernanke Put" well that was to put a floor on the market and give investors the confidence to re-enter the markets and clearly gave a buy signal to the fund managers etc. The UTHR Put as I will refer to it is essentially the same idea regarding the buy side of this equity. IMO a "floor" has been established and solidified with Tuesday's announcement regarding the cash injection and potential cash inflows from the remaining milestones and royalties. Although I already have a fairly large core position, I purchased 20K (with trading partner so really 10K each) trading shares this morning at 1.71 which will be used to buy on any dips. I believe with the UTHR announcement that any dips will now be bought and the existing short shares will compete with new buyers looking to establish long positions. IMO this should be a buy the dip and sell the rip equity for a buy side bias going forward for trading shares only. If you are not trading any shares and have a core long position then you know what the longer term positives are for the company at this point. One caveat to the UTHR situation is that I believe there is the potential for LQDA to add a possible objection into the FTC mix, after all they are left standing alone at the alter now with what looks to be an inferior product, at worst I would expect that UTHR might have to divest some of their stranglehold on the PAH market if it is deemed there is an anti-trust issue. I am expecting/suspect that FUD to come into play while the 30 day period is in effect. In the end however, UTHR married with the right partner and it should be a win-win for both parties going forward. Could it have been a better deal had the company been in a different position, absolutely, but the more important aspect is the overwhelming vote of confidence UTHR displayed in Technosphere with the additional research request. Enjoy your weekends
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 5, 2018 20:03:43 GMT -5
You have to give it to Spencer for spin and imagination "The good news is that such a deal helps validate the concept of inhaled medicine which is the foundation of the Liquidia business model" It seems to me Technosphere smoked PRINT and will continue to do so in the large molecule market. Obviously UT thought that, but with that article I would not want to be a Liquidia shareholder, in fact I'm thinking Kastanes opened a short position as he was reading it along with any other worshippers, might be the next weekly fodder for the hobby writer 🤣 Hmmm could make for a nice paired trade long mnkd short LQDA 🤔
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 5, 2018 12:16:07 GMT -5
26,072,479 real time shares traded at the half. $2.79 plus .71. + 34% That price retrace to the gap makes sense, testing the prior low resistance. held, now uppy. Time for more gauze and sterile water supplies. You’re nicer than I am as I recommend a dirty rag and rubbing alcohol or kerosene! I prefer the KISS method, salt, lots of salt
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 5, 2018 2:19:33 GMT -5
we have to look left here. see the resistance at $2.05. $3.20 the next hard resistance the sanofi low. $2.45, $2.58, $2.65, $2.80, $2.99, $3.10. With any luck price makes it to $3.20 tomorrow. summary volume today was 50 million shares. 1/3 of shares outstanding. this thing could fly like an eagle.
Here's the "kicker", the selling exhausted, volume was down to a trickle.....this morning was a solid example of why smart money whether short or long should be hedged or square their position limiting their exposure entering a long weekend when news is pending. Kicking pattern/exhaustion gap, textbook:source: www.investopedia.com/terms/k/kickerpattern.aspKicker Pattern What is a 'Kicker Pattern' A kicker pattern is a two-bar candlestick pattern that is used to predict a change in the direction of the trend for an asset's price. This pattern is characterized by a very sharp reversal in price over the span of two candlesticks; traders use it to determine which group of market participants is in control of the direction. The pattern points to a strong change in investors' attitude surrounding a security. This usually occurs following the release of valuable information about a company, industry or an economy.
BREAKING DOWN 'Kicker Pattern' The kicker pattern is deemed to be one of the most reliable reversal patterns and usually signifies a dramatic change in the fundamentals of the company in question. To traders observing the kicker pattern, it may seem like the price has moved too quickly, and they may wait for a pullback; however, those traders may find themselves looking back and wishing they had entered a position when they originally identified the kicker pattern. While the kicker pattern is generally considered one of the strongest bull or bear sentiment indicators, the pattern is, however, rare. Most professional traders do not rapidly overreact in one direction or another. If, and when the kicker pattern presents itself, money managers are quick to take notice. The kicker pattern is often regarded as one of the most powerful signals available to technical analysts. Its relevance is magnified when it occurs in overbought or oversold markets. The two candles behind the pattern take on visible significance. The first candle opens and moves in the direction of a current trend and the second candle opens at the same open of the previous day (a gap open), and then heads in the opposite direction of the prior day’s candle. The bodies of the candles are opposite colors in many trading platforms, offering this formation a colorful display of the dramatic change in investor sentiment. Because the kicker pattern occurs only after a significant change in the market's attitude; the indicator is often studied with other measures of market psychology or behavioral finance Read more: Kicker Pattern www.investopedia.com/terms/k/kickerpattern.asp#ixzz5QD1JfYwJ Follow us: Investopedia on Facebook chart source: tradingsim.com/blog/kicker-pattern/
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 4, 2018 8:01:21 GMT -5
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 4, 2018 7:44:02 GMT -5
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 4, 2018 7:39:00 GMT -5
I'm SO'S cat, pls somebody call 911 he is not feeling good... I suppose and help educate "the developer" on how to valuate commercial real estate....in fact, he states taking square footage and placing a value on that like you might with residential RE. Commercial properties are valued on net operating income, given that what do you think United Therapeutics would value the plant at today???
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 4, 2018 7:12:24 GMT -5
With pre-market volume already at 500k, I think we can expect 30-50 million shares traded today...maybe more. Shorts will be scrambling for the exits and possibly create a squeeze that could propel pps higher and faster.
Good fortune all. I knew we finally hit bottom this past week/weekend when you got sour on Mike ......over 1M shares and Sports and I are the only ones awake on the left coast.....btw, remind me to payback Sports for the wake-up text at 3a lolol...
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 4, 2018 6:57:09 GMT -5
Over the last 3 years I have accumulated a lot of shares and calls. I am so happy today. Does anyone have an educated and reasonable guess on what this news will do to the stock price? Thank you! This is most likely the first of a series of dominoes to fall, so you should have many more "happy" days ahead Richie Cunningham
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 4, 2018 6:31:58 GMT -5
MNKD $1.60* +0.50 +45.45% two and 1/2 hours prior to the open. 85,007 real time shares traded. www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkd/premarketfrom memory, hard resistance $2.05. let's go. added, $1.54, $1.61, $1.80, $2.05 $2.45. resistance along the way. Volume should take us there today. 231,000 shares traded 2 hours and 8 mins prior to the open. Gap up on volume today, leaving the "dust" behind, speaking of behind can we insert a picture of a "full moon" here how many are feelin it this morning, c'mon you know most of us knew it was coming
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 4, 2018 6:18:00 GMT -5
Another predictable hit piece by SO. Here's his summary: Investors should know that if MannKind used cash to pay Deerfield the $3 million, there is no filing necessary. If the company used shares, the latest we could see an 8-K filing is Thursday of next week. Absent the company announcing something, investors will find themselves going into a holiday weekend in the dark, and may not know the status of anything until next Thursday. These dynamics put a distinct advantage in the hands of speculative traders. I anticipate that the company will be able to buy itself a little bit of time, but it is certainly not a comfortable situation for investors. Stay Tuned!A couple of quotes/comments from the article: Matt_PK Comments440 | + Follow "It is more like a few weeks of cash. If Deerfield did not agree to take shares and Spencer's other numbers are correct (and generally he is quite accurate) the company is down to around $7-8 million with a weekly burn rate of $2 million. I seriously doubt they paid DF in cash because if they need time to deal with creditors then they need every penny of available cash to tide them over. No doubt the board has taken legal advice on their options and the lawyers would have advised them to conserve cash no matter which creditor might be upset. The challenge to raising money at this time is that the trading volume has been declining, and PIPE investors like to see lots of liquidity in a stock. There are not a lot of viable options left."01 Sep 2018, 09:45 AM Reply " Matt_PK Comments440 | + Follow "Dendreon was a much different situation that I know well because I was engaged as an expert for part of the proceedings so I remember it all very well. The big difference is that DNDN had substantial sales, not enough to cover their expenses but a run rate of over $300 million, had a positive gross margin, and $120 million in cash when they filed. While they were still losing money, DNDN was down to burning about $10 million a quarter, but bankruptcy costs money, a lot of money, and DNDN went through almost all of the cash in the eight months after they filed and shareholders recovered nothing at all. MNKD does not have the cash they need to pull off a Chapter 11 reorganization because they will run out of cash long before they can put a reorg plan on the table. Unless they have quietly negotiated a prepackaged plan with Deerfield, Amphastar, Mann Group, and the other major creditors, they will not have the room to maneuver in the courtroom if it is a contested case. Like you said, at this point any rabbit from any hat will do." If you knew the Dendreon situation well, and engaged as an expert, as well as regarding their sales then you would also know how much each treatment cost and what their coverage was and how the urologists were re-imbursed. While both companies share underwhelming sales that is about the only thing they have in common and the potential for Afrezza is in a whole different class than Provenge was. Actually if you really want to look at the difference, Provenge was the pioneer in becoming the first FDA approved immunotherapy treatment for cancer (prostrate), and unfortunately it only was shown to extend life on average of an additional 3 mos. so the cost and benefit was a huge factor in their sales and coverage along with the cause for poor sales. The cost/benefit for treating both T1/T2 PWD regarding the results being shown with of quickly reducing HbA1c and reduced risk of hypo incidents is the opposite end of the spectrum compared to Provenge's efficacy/benefit. There are two major reasons why Dendreon failed as a company: 1. Dendreon's drug, Provenge only provided a limited benefit to prostate cancer patients, something like another 3 months of survival. Another drug was launched around the same time called Zytiga added 5.2 months, so Provenge certainly wasn't the only option. 2. Dendreon's drug required urologists to buy the drug at a cost of $90K and then wait for insurance to reimburse them. Urologists don't typically do this, so they hesitated to use it. Zytiga is just a pill, so urologists were much more comfortable just writing a prescription rather than risking $100K per patient. Sources: www.forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2011/08/04/dendreons-scientific-breakthrough-fails-to-sell/#6d73ee993c43www.quora.com/What-are-the-major-reasons-behind-the-fall-of-DendreonSomeone please tell Mr "Ham-n-egger" who "develops property in the region", here is your remedial lesson: that you don't value commercial property just on brick and mortar, you get a cap rate and gross multiplier on rents, NOI (net operating income), this is what commercial appraisers use when appraising a commercial property. Here, let me help you and your buddy Matt, www.thebalancesmb.com/calculating-property-value-with-capitalization-rate-2866800 Having said that, what do you suppose the value of building just went to today with the collaborative agreement signed by United Therapeutics....hahaha....btw, what's a ham-n-egger, you are a funny one SO Spencer Osborne, Contributor Comments14813 | + Follow Author’s reply » remedial lesson for good ole Joey The building has a value as a piuece of real estate. The assessed value gives you the baseline value. The equipment in the building only has value to someone that wants to make technospere products. Take the square footage of the building. Apply a reasonable multiple to the square footage. Look at comps in the area. WRONG>>>LOL, see above on how you value commercial property SPENCE!!!IT IS QUITE CLEAR YOU HAVE DONE NONE OF THIS. I develop property in the region. I know I have a far better grasp on values of buildings than some fly by night ham-n-egger LOL, seriously question that if that is how you value your commercial properties lololol who is the fly by nighter?NEW | 03 Sep 2018, 06:35 PM Reply1Like Spencer Osborne, Contributor Comments14813 | + Follow Author’s reply » Let's be clear. Deerfield is senior lender with the several covenants on debt AND milestones. Further, most assets of mannkind are already collateral for debt AND milestones. Readers should make themselves familiar with the contracts. Can mannkind refinance and take Deerfield out of the picture? Of course. Thank you for acknowledging that now, ya think? maybe they refinance with United Therapeutics The question is at what cost and what terms. Will Mann Group allow itself to be second if Deerfield is paid out? These are all considerations. The easiest path is to negotiate new debt with Deerfield. Question is how much debt can be done with net revenue being what it is? Most likely, any new debt will have converts. Problem is the number of authorized shares. NEW | 03 Sep 2018, 07:11 PM Reply
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