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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 3, 2018 16:06:59 GMT -5
Let’s hope we can get the facility financing obligation - the very big current liability - refinanced. As I see it, if we can do a good job of that, share price would be in a much better position for an equity raise. According to SO, he continually states/alludes that the building is permanently secured to Deerfield. Whenever someone brings up the idea of Mannkind restructuring their debt/obligations especially with respect to the building he states like he is the only one that knows it is secured via covenants to Deerfield. However, if Deerfield has a clause that Mannkind cannot refinance and restructure their debt and obligations like any other debtor I must have missed that somewhere. Can someone show me the language that ties Mannkind from paying off Deerfield with new financing? Does he not understand simple refinancing? Let's do this "his way" Borrower cannot get traditional financing for various reasons so they go to the non traditional financing lender and pay a higher rate with the idea of refinancing the less attractive terms at a future date. This happens every day in real estate, a borrower that borrows private or hard money to obtain a property at today's value instead of renting and losing out to appreciated values in the future. Anyone that did that when they had short sales or foreclosures on their credit after the financial crisis and took advantage of the market when prices were low have either already refinanced to traditional loans at lower rates or if they could not for some reason sold when the property had appreciated back to almost 100% of past value. Now let's talk about that "value". As SO and Matt like to point out ad nauseam (ad nau·se·am ad ˈnôzēəm/Submit adverb referring to something that has been done or repeated so often that it has become annoying or tiresome.) the value of the building at an auction or "liquidation value" would only fetch what the land and exterior shell of the building are worth on a less than comparable basis. SO goes on to say that he uses the "tax assessors" value (I sure wish I could buy real estate consistently at the "tax assessors value"). So the premise or guise under which this is stated is that the company is being liquidated as opposed to an ongoing business. However, looking at the ongoing business and what the enterprise value of the technosphere technology and the award winning plant bring to the table must be considered. Value is what is in the eyes of the beholder, the saying goes there is a buyer for anything, and what may construe value to one may not to many others. If you are in the camp that technosphere does not work or has value then yes you would have to look at just the building and land. The problem with that is, Technosphere has been validated with one drug that has been already approved and one that is moving into a phase 3 trial. So it obviously has value as a viable technology. What is that value? Guess we will be finding out at some point. Oh btw, the constant "It's been on the market for 4yrs." statement is getting a bit old too as most familiar with the history of those 4yrs. have a pretty good understanding of what has taken place during that period of time. Nice try to twist it that way lol.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 2, 2018 1:35:00 GMT -5
Another predictable hit piece by SO. Here's his summary: Investors should know that if MannKind used cash to pay Deerfield the $3 million, there is no filing necessary. If the company used shares, the latest we could see an 8-K filing is Thursday of next week. Absent the company announcing something, investors will find themselves going into a holiday weekend in the dark, and may not know the status of anything until next Thursday. These dynamics put a distinct advantage in the hands of speculative traders. I anticipate that the company will be able to buy itself a little bit of time, but it is certainly not a comfortable situation for investors. Stay Tuned!A couple of quotes/comments from the article: Matt_PK Comments440 | + Follow "It is more like a few weeks of cash. If Deerfield did not agree to take shares and Spencer's other numbers are correct (and generally he is quite accurate) the company is down to around $7-8 million with a weekly burn rate of $2 million. I seriously doubt they paid DF in cash because if they need time to deal with creditors then they need every penny of available cash to tide them over. No doubt the board has taken legal advice on their options and the lawyers would have advised them to conserve cash no matter which creditor might be upset. The challenge to raising money at this time is that the trading volume has been declining, and PIPE investors like to see lots of liquidity in a stock. There are not a lot of viable options left."01 Sep 2018, 09:45 AM Reply " Matt_PK Comments440 | + Follow "Dendreon was a much different situation that I know well because I was engaged as an expert for part of the proceedings so I remember it all very well. The big difference is that DNDN had substantial sales, not enough to cover their expenses but a run rate of over $300 million, had a positive gross margin, and $120 million in cash when they filed. While they were still losing money, DNDN was down to burning about $10 million a quarter, but bankruptcy costs money, a lot of money, and DNDN went through almost all of the cash in the eight months after they filed and shareholders recovered nothing at all. MNKD does not have the cash they need to pull off a Chapter 11 reorganization because they will run out of cash long before they can put a reorg plan on the table. Unless they have quietly negotiated a prepackaged plan with Deerfield, Amphastar, Mann Group, and the other major creditors, they will not have the room to maneuver in the courtroom if it is a contested case. Like you said, at this point any rabbit from any hat will do." If you knew the Dendreon situation well, and engaged as an expert, as well as regarding their sales then you would also know how much each treatment cost and what their coverage was and how the urologists were re-imbursed. While both companies share underwhelming sales that is about the only thing they have in common and the potential for Afrezza is in a whole different class than Provenge was. Actually if you really want to look at the difference, Provenge was the pioneer in becoming the first FDA approved immunotherapy treatment for cancer (prostrate), and unfortunately it only was shown to extend life on average of an additional 3 mos. so the cost and benefit was a huge factor in their sales and coverage along with the cause for poor sales. The cost/benefit for treating both T1/T2 PWD regarding the results being shown with of quickly reducing HbA1c and reduced risk of hypo incidents is the opposite end of the spectrum compared to Provenge's efficacy/benefit. There are two major reasons why Dendreon failed as a company: 1. Dendreon's drug, Provenge only provided a limited benefit to prostate cancer patients, something like another 3 months of survival. Another drug was launched around the same time called Zytiga added 5.2 months, so Provenge certainly wasn't the only option. 2. Dendreon's drug required urologists to buy the drug at a cost of $90K and then wait for insurance to reimburse them. Urologists don't typically do this, so they hesitated to use it. Zytiga is just a pill, so urologists were much more comfortable just writing a prescription rather than risking $100K per patient. Sources: www.forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2011/08/04/dendreons-scientific-breakthrough-fails-to-sell/#6d73ee993c43www.quora.com/What-are-the-major-reasons-behind-the-fall-of-Dendreon
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 30, 2018 0:50:47 GMT -5
www.thediabetescouncil.com/inhaled-insulin-afrezza-being-marketed-to-those-with-type-1/Excerpt: The main benefit other than a needle free introduction into the body, of Afrezza is that it works in five minutes after it is inhaled. It has been shown to shut down the hepatic glucose production, which means the blood glucose in the body does not go up first then come down as it typically does with regular injectable insulin.
There is Still Work to Be Done
Before Afrezza can become a hit with many in the diabetic community there is still plenty of work to be done. Doctors as well as insurance companies and patients need to be educated about the inhaled insulin. Article looks to be almost two years old (Nov 2016) based on the dates in the comments section. Looks like one of the well known bashers attempted to stick their nose where it didn't belong lol and got smacked by a known user, two years later he/she are still at it....where do you think he/she will be two years from now
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 28, 2018 21:15:12 GMT -5
Enter Cipla, no worry about, bacterial buildup, blunt re-used needles, leaving metal fragments behind, etc....and speaking of not leaving behind, no pediatrics should be left behind either when it comes to inhalable vs. obsolete and barbaric forms of insulin therapy.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 26, 2018 13:11:44 GMT -5
The mnkd market cap is 171M. Are there any examples ever of a company getting a non-dilutive cash infusion larger than the market cap? I can't think of any. Wouldn't it would make more sense in that situation for the other party to acquire the company? That's the theoretical "face value" market cap, let's see a company try to acquire it at current s/p, the short contingent certainly couldn't exit at .13/sh market cap so what makes you think an interested acquirer would be able to pick it up at 171M? Do you really think the BOD would authorize a sale at current s/p? True volume at the current price is next to nothing, who is going to sell that hasn't already, add in the debt of shares that have to be repaid at some point as well. All are waiting to see how the company is going to maneuver the ship through the storm currently, both sides are anxious to see what Mike and Steve have been up to recently in this "quiet period". Volatility in volume and s/p has essentially come in to a tight standstill range, I suspect that's about to change in the upcoming two weeks
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 25, 2018 20:40:14 GMT -5
Today is good indicator that weekly script numbers have little correlation to share price movement. same as this company 10 yrs. ago ....one before it's time just like the other, if you see tremendous growth in the idea of real time management as DXCM is illustrating, then IMO you have to see it with the most dynamic insulin currently on the market at some point also (at least that is what the rep that came over from DXCM has told me as well)
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 20, 2018 21:39:49 GMT -5
Those people wouldn't do that, would they? I always figured those SA folk were 100% on the level, genuine, just like all posters on this board. I'm going to have to try to get my head around this. The bashers on Twitter now are going after the MNKD sales rep just like they were on here, as they are on stock twits. Of course that’s only one of their new favorite topics ...they are going literally insane, I’m thinking it speaks of a fear of a big move to the upside soon:-)) I never did trust "fuzzy panda shorts" lol SA= Selectively Allow, selectively edit; quoting the author "fake news"
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 14, 2018 11:25:50 GMT -5
What do u think will fund the $$$ to paint the bigger picture? I am aware that technospehere is a golden goose but still not able to assign probability of getting upfront cash deal or dilute or float debt. Upfront cash deal would be ideal , but based on the deals, I would assume this has less probability. Thoughts? Really anyone's guess right now, I don't know maybe someone can see if Bezos wants to abide by his note he sees everyday attached to his fridge, Lord knows (as the note says) it would go a long way towards redeeming a tough social condition or making children's lives healthier via breathing easier as opposed to the injections www.cnbc.com/2018/05/08/the-inspiring-quote-amazon-ceo-jeff-bezos-keeps-on-his-fridge.html
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 14, 2018 10:28:55 GMT -5
The following video is about a bitcoin analyst that explains to the fast money panel the time period that it takes to shift a paradigm, makes a lot of sense especially when dealing with something a lot of the general population doesn't get right away....peak to trough to peak periods she compares valuations, imperfect metrics when it comes to price. Yes she is talking about bitcoin and analogizing it to Amazon, Intel, Microsoft, and the time periods it took for them to change things. When you think about what Technosphere brings to the table regarding the PK/PD profiles of what it brings to the table and changing the standard of care process, it makes a lot of sense when you listen to her analysis of the evolution of a disruptive technology. In this particular case if you listen to the what she says you can certainly understand the time period and stages that MNKD has gone through especially when including the SNY debacle. A little food for thought at looking at the bigger picture. It helps when you get a KOL to take the first step in acceptance (Kendall), little by little he has to educate his peers but it will happen. Listen to how she puts the total addressable market and penetration of that market as a huge factor into context of the purpose and value of the shift. Again it makes a lot of sense when you think about the current unrealized potential that still needs to be unlocked regarding Afrezza/Technosphere. www.cnbc.com/video/2018/08/13/the-bitcoin-bubble-has-popped-but-heres-why-thats-good-for-crypto-coinshares.html
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 12, 2018 14:22:20 GMT -5
Watching this company continuing to evolve from a technology/manufacturing entity to a full out pharmaceutical entity, the little engine that could continues to chug along as the naysayers continue to spew into the wind...I see a couple of them (naysayers) were working a little OT this weekend
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 11, 2018 18:51:54 GMT -5
Ok I am posting here for the sanity of everyone. I suspect I will get kicked out since this is a cheerleader board as it is but so what- Here's my honest opinion - you can take it or leave it- I was with Mannkind when Al Mann was alive and when Sanofi signed a deal with them. I got suckered into to buying the stock at $6, 7,8, 9 and $10 (before the famous Matt P reverse 1-5 split. I also bought at 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 64 cents and back at $1, 2, 3 back down to $2. I got so tired I sold it all at $2- In other words, I lost a bunch of money in this stock (a big bunch). I spoke to Sanofi several times when they were partners, relayed a bunch of info to Matt P, spoke to him countless times as well all Mike C and others. One thing the Sanofi guy (he was their head of Afrezza sales) told me - stuck with me- nice niche product, hopefully, it will sell. I didn't believe him. I had my rose-colored eye glasses on -- and continued to have them for another two-three years Guess I was wrong- I admit it. Cut your loses. Move on. This company is dead. Just my advice. Hakan is this you, or perhaps it's RS? If you knew at the time that the "head of Sanofi Afrezza sales" was marketing this as a "niche product" shouldn't that have told you something right then and there about Sanofi? LOL!! Take it from one of the "cheerleaders" (damn right I cheer for it every day I take it) that uses it on a daily basis.....it's NOT a niche product, it's everything that you read in the testimonials from all those that currently swear by it. Thanks for your concern enough for me as a shareholder that after you having sold a $2 you decided to drop in on a Saturday afternoon for my "sanity", but unfortunately my body and organs cannot agree with your "niche" assessment and you can take that reality to the bank. Thanks (not) for stopping by. I hope your thread does not get locked just so others can read this
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 11, 2018 15:56:59 GMT -5
I actually wrote a whole thesis but the server did not respond and accept it. I'll summarize. J. Paul Getty has been quoted as saying when you owe the bank $100 dollars you have a problem. When you owe the bank $100 million the bank has a problem. If you believe the short thesis, that Mannkind is worthless then our bank Deerfield certainly has a problem. If Deerfield believes in Al Mann's vision and the stars will align in next few quarters, our bank will make it happen. Exact thoughts/reasons why the Chinese would never sell off their total holdings of US Treasuries (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-chinas-treasury-hoard-isnt-much-of-a-weapon-in-trade-spat-with-us-2018-04-06), that analogy is what is used often when discussing how much US debt China owns. MNKD has been a cash cow for DF, so they most likely will continue to milk it until MNKD somehow can free itself from DF's bossom. Hammer that's a quote that I always have liked, it's also the premise of what happened in the banking crisis behind the too big to fail, the banks had a HUGE problem when the housing market was built on air, ahh pictures of Hank Paulson on his knees begging Nancy Pelosi for the bailout....world was about to fall off the cliff, and boy did she make him beg, better stop there lol.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 8, 2018 22:32:48 GMT -5
The more I think about this the more I believe is this is the new MNKD payroll. Why use cash when you can pay your employees stock. Should be nice when the price is above 1.05. Hope the floor can go down if the stock goes down. Hope they can flip on the first and fifteenth. I believe that typically there is a vesting period, 5 yrs. is pretty much the average I've seen. You would have to see the plan for the language on how it vests. It's not quite an ESOP but sounds like it captures a lot of the attributes of one. With ESOP's the company typically goes through an annual valuation and each employee gets a percentage allocated based on the valuation. In the one plan I had been involved with the amount each employee received was based on their annual income and they had to be/remain with the company for six years before they were vested. It serves quite a few purposes, employee retention, great talking point when recruiting, greater sense of pride and positive morale as each employee senses that they have a piece of the ownership and are motivated towards the company's continued growth and success. One thing is for sure, it does not typically take the place of regular payroll, I wouldn't think they are paying their rents/mortgages with it as it is not a liquid type of compensation. Adding: I also remember talking with someone that worked for Winco Foods and they told me they were worth well over 7 figures from their ownership stake in their company, when I asked what they did they told me they were a checkout clerk, had to google the name of the chain as I couldn't remember it, here's a couple of links, pretty crazy how well it worked out for these employees www.wincofoods.com/about/an-employee-owned-companywww.forbes.com/sites/maryjosephs/2014/11/05/millionaire-grocery-clerks-the-amazing-winco-foods-story/#7d0201a65700So bringing this back full circle, although it's not an ESOP, the incentive plan comes with similar attributes IMO. When I couple that with the conversations I had with the local MNKD rep regarding their background and why they chose to come to work for the company it makes a lot of sense why Mike and company would set this plan up. The rep had worked for DXCM and saw them grow into their potential, with that in mind and their belief in Afrezza it was a no brainer if the reps they are hiring (I believe there are a fair amount from DXCM btw) can see how it will end up playing out. With Kendall added to the mix and from what most of us saw at the ASM, I would venture quite a decent percentage end up participating.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 8, 2018 21:48:12 GMT -5
Can the employees flip the shares? The more I think about this the more I believe is this is the new MNKD payroll. Why use cash when you can pay your employees stock. Should be nice when the price is above 1.05. Hope the floor can go down if the stock goes down. Hope they can flip on the first and fifteenth. I believe that typically there is a vesting period, 5 yrs. is pretty much the average I've seen. You would have to see the plan for the language on how it vests. It's not quite an ESOP but sounds like it captures a lot of the attributes of one. With ESOP's the company typically goes through an annual valuation and each employee gets a percentage allocated based on the valuation. In the one plan I had been involved with the amount each employee received was based on their annual income and they had to be/remain with the company for six years before they were vested. It serves quite a few purposes, employee retention, great talking point when recruiting, greater sense of pride and positive morale as each employee senses that they have a piece of the ownership and are motivated towards the company's continued growth and success. One thing is for sure, it does not typically take the place of regular payroll, I wouldn't think they are paying their rents/mortgages with it as it is not a liquid type of compensation.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 8, 2018 13:13:18 GMT -5
Joey ..... Angel Investor? Hypothetically, a multi-billionaire (like Paul Allen?) provides a $60 million unsecured loan to Mannkind. That might be a fairy tale but it's a riot to think about! It wouldn't have to be unsecured to have the same effect, a simple refinance, same as someone refinancing out a "hard money" loan with usury rates with a standard mortgage loan....both are secured but one allows the debtor to "breathe" so to speak
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