|
|
Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 26, 2017 11:50:08 GMT -5
No shares available to borrow at the world's largest DTC clearing house. So the 52k traded at the lows looks like more of the same charade cha·rade SHəˈrād/Submit noun an absurd pretense intended to create a pleasant or respectable appearance. Key words being, absurd pretense intended appearance  |
|
|
|
Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 26, 2017 8:12:49 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 22, 2017 13:59:45 GMT -5
What's at stake for NVO (and those fund and institutional managers that have owned it) is monumental and should paint a pretty good picture of how much weight has been put on the s/p of MNKD. The war chest used over the past years through various channels has been used at all costs to protect a portfolio mainly comprised of products for the treatment of T1/T2 diabetes mellitus: marketrealist.com/2017/09/how-novo-nordisk-performed-in-the-1st-half-of-2017/ . Current NVO market cap sits at roughly 125B compared to a peak of just under 159B in Aug '15: ycharts.com/companies/NVO/market_cap so while revenues have steadily increased, market cap has had almost a 22% haircut since Aug '15, it was much worse six mos. ago at it's trough of roughly 85B. Of course there has been fierce competition in the space between the other BP but as evidenced by those who improved their quality of life and effectively maintained practically non-diabetic/pre-diabetic HBa1c #'s converting to Afrezza for their prandial use, there is a legitimate threat to the entire portfolio of products and not just the RAA's. Fortunately for them they will be able to continue to rely on their basel products and most likely will foray with research into other areas of diversification. Make no mistake about it, re-classification is huge for Afrezza/MNKD as there is no room on the current Tier 2 shelf, the SNY rep told me this shortly before SNY pulled the plug. As stated in a previous post, it is no coincidence the sequence of events that has taken place to this point with NVO pushing Fiasp and it is no coincidence that we are at this inflection point with the s/p negotiating the 200 day ma, this epic story continues to play out. Enjoy your weekends!! On a side note, currently there are no shares available to lend from the largest DTC house |
|
|
|
Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 21, 2017 18:59:11 GMT -5
Away from hip replacements and back to Mannkind. Do we go down to a nickel if no label change? Do we go to the sky if there is one? Just making a point about your post, however looking at the open interest for expiry 9/29 neither one looks like it's the likely scenario at this point for the day some are expecting....however, the open interest for 1/19/18 is showing a lot of open interest on the call side so looks like some are either hedged vs. their counter positions or very optimistic...or both |
|
|
|
Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 20, 2017 10:52:37 GMT -5
I think a lot of the loose leaves were shook off the tree to create a covering opportunity. Manipulation at its best. The return buying volume tells me the support is there and I think we will be looking god by the end of the week hopefully we get good script numbers breaking 400 total and new approved label next week 😄😄  |
|
|
|
Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 20, 2017 10:07:01 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 19, 2017 13:27:15 GMT -5
It looks like they are playing it with real close range (algos) when it hits circuit breaker territory. Then they ease off - total control, "they" don't want it to halt. Just an fyi, the uptick rule triggered and it's in effect through tomorrow |
|
|
|
Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 19, 2017 12:52:28 GMT -5
IMO, I think these advances and declines are over analyzed. Sure, if one is an active trader, one can make some quick dollars placing the right bet before these moves. But relatively speaking they are really kind of small potatoes when you look at how some larger cap companies' shares move some days. (Today's steep decline is about 4 or 5 cents in pre-RS terms, just to put it into proper perspective.) I suppose if I was to voice a reason for the decline, it would be because in my gut I sort of feel like active traders were behind the recent rise (buying and manipulating) and some are now reversing (selling) positions. Nothing to do with the label or sales at all. Nothing directly to do with shorting, either. |
|
|
|
Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 19, 2017 12:25:28 GMT -5
I think we've had 5 up weeks in a row now. Will this week break the streak? Assuming this is a pullback and we are still headed higher leading up to label change, what is the support level for the pullback likely to be? Right here at $2.04 is solid support.. there were shares available to borrow this am. so this isn't a surprise whatsoever. Yes Sports, the 2's would be in play, I really like the cheap puts in the SPY's today, premium is minimal with the volatility so low and heading into the fed talk to tomorrow....so complacent, the SEP 29 248 strike for right around .60 look very appealing to me right here for any swing pullback in the broader market with any surprise interpretations tomorrow....this market is set up for perfection right now the mood could swing in short order as the funds are nervous money right now chasing performance IMO. |
|
|
|
Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 19, 2017 8:55:57 GMT -5
If you think this is just a timing coincidence think again. Novo knew what they stood to lose if Afrezza were to get its due. They bought (in many ways including the shorting of MNKD) themselves the two plus years to get to this point as they are trying to share the new category so they can undercut pricing like they did with Levemir to Lantus for the insurance edge. We're at the finish line, the category is one thing the enhancements to the label are another regarding what claims can be made. Label is everything IMO to opening the insurance gate in turn unleashing scripts from a broader acceptance of physicians, etc. The sales teams will feel like they had shackles removed. Backlog of scripts will also be freed up, like the one I received and never was filled due to insurance despite two prior authorization attempts, there are many awaiting the revised label. The "needle" on the scripts number will move big time...pun intended |
|
|
|
Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 15, 2017 15:28:07 GMT -5
That volume was most likely tied to options expiration, IMO the price action acted like a gem today.
|
|
|
|
Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 15, 2017 9:34:37 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 13, 2017 16:23:08 GMT -5
I read it as a "reversal of fortune", Granville was big (big in a few ways, size and character RIP) on volume/price action...and supply and demand with shares, so relative to MNKD I like this indicator as we know there has been some pretty good shenanigan's with the supply and demand over the years on this....I think that correlation with the climax reversal low is extremely telling and the positive volume from that point forward ref: stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:on_balance_volume_obv I actually had met Joe Granville a couple of times in KC back in the 90's he was a interesting person.
But Joey can you give this to me in English? What is the chart telling you.
KC essentially, the climatic/reversal low that was put in the first week of May is when there was a huge volume "exchange" of shares. It is very obvious the accumulation that has taken place since that low and thus the reduced supply of shares evident in the financing rates going through the roof. I have mentioned that I have a MM source (friend) that can call and check on availability of shares and rates from alternative source other than Schwab or Fidelity....when he inquired this am., they told him they had no shares available to lend, again simple supply/demand equation....if you hit the link I posted on OBV in my response to Peppy, it gives a pretty good explanation of how Granville used this as one of the tools in his arsenal. Look at the different samples of the charts below the OBV explanation in the link, see the similarities to the reversal break to the upside from those lows accompanied by the large green volume bars over the last few mos. in MNKD? I'm just pointing it out as another confirmation indicator of what has been happening with the accumulation as opposed to just traders...IMO the grind higher is more indicative of tighter shares being held by stronger hands. It coincides with my question of why didn't (couldn't) the short position close prudently when s/p was at .13 at the climatic low...hope that helps |
|
|
|
Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 13, 2017 15:36:31 GMT -5
I see lots of tall green bars in the volume window since the May low's....Peppy add the OBV window below it Total shares outstanding turned over? They were in share prison and the jail cell has been opened? How do you read it?
I read it as a "reversal of fortune", Granville was big (big in a few ways, size and character RIP) on volume/price action...and supply and demand with shares, so relative to MNKD I like this indicator as we know there has been some pretty good shenanigan's with the supply and demand over the years on this....I think that correlation with the climax reversal low is extremely telling and the positive volume from that point forward ref: stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:on_balance_volume_obv |
|
|
|
Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 13, 2017 14:47:31 GMT -5
I see lots of tall green bars in the volume window since the May low's....Peppy add the OBV window below it |
|
