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Post by otherottawaguy on Jun 26, 2017 16:22:25 GMT -5
Trying to summarize the above poll at 1600h. It looks as if 8 out of 39 would not participate. Those participating would take 400k straight shares and another 400k at the discount. From our little polling group the company could expect to raise sbout 700k.
Will be interested to see what numbers look atend of week.
Who ever suggested creating a poll feel free to take credit, I created it quickly based upon your suggestion in another thread.
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jun 26, 2017 11:51:09 GMT -5
What would you take in a rights offereing?
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jun 26, 2017 10:46:58 GMT -5
One BIG issue that hasn't been resolved. Unit-for-Unit pricing has Afrezza slightly higher than the RAA brands. But since your dosage would be roughly 2:1 with Afrezza vs RAA, it simply puts Afrezza into a Premium price range that insurers are not willing to pay. If you add correction doses to manage your Time-In-Range, the monthly price to insurers and patients (since most people have higher deductible plans these days) is, in my opinion, what has been holding Afrezza back from being accepted. I believe that the premium pricing is the number one factor behind the inexplicable refill rates. Doctor after Doctor is saying the same thing to their patients and to other doctors: Afrezza inhaled insulin costs way too much. I understand that the benefits of being able to manage your BG levels at an unprecedented level of control equates to long-term health benefits. I also understand that the huge benefit in life style changes, coupled with the previous benefit, may justify the premium. Unfortunately, insurers don't see it that way and most patients simply cannot fork over that much out of pocket expense. It's a sad state of of mind that has dominated management's thinking for far too long. First impressions are crucial to new drug launches and when MannKind launches its consumer marketing campaign, if they don't get the pricing right, they'll have missed a golden opportunity to propel Afrezza as an elite insulin at an affordable price. Sanofi set the price of Afrezza higher than RAA brands because they knew they and the other big pharmaceutical were about to enact a massive price increase for their RAA insulin brands. I fear that MannKind's management was blinded by greed after Afrezza was returned to them and they currently want to capitalize on the current market's high insulin prices. "Better AND more affordable" is the message that is needed today to make Afrezza into a blockbuster tomorrow. I fail to understand why they don't get this. At a time when competitors are raising prices, what a powerful message you could send by announcing that you are lowering your price. If you want to be greedy, then raise your price later, after Afrezza is dominating the prandial market. T o maintain their current per unit premium prices is utter nonsense at this stage of the Afrezza life cycle.
Just my opinion. I continue to root for Afrezza to become successful. OneDrop has the right idea. I hope the new CEO of MannKind follows suit with a similar pricing strategy. BTW, I don't read Spencer's articles, so my opinion should not be interpreted as supportive of his viewpoints which, as I understand it from members posts, focuses primarily on MannKind's finances. Perhaps another thread may have been a better place to post my viewpoint, but here it stays. K? Good fortune all. MN: I did a little exercise on breakeven and pricing scenarios, I agree a price drop would have wonder effects on uptake. Back in the pre-FDA approval days (3 years ago), all of my breakeven scenarios were based upon a retail cost to the end user of $2600 assuming one box per month. This was the cost of other treatment regimes at the time and Dr Mann had suggested that they would be in that ballpark when it came to pricing. We now know that it is probably scoser to 1.5 boxes per month which is what I based the calculation on in this ond thread. mnkd.proboards.com/thread/7047/pricing-discounts-resulting-break-scenariosOOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jun 25, 2017 10:08:25 GMT -5
I play with EXEL (anther bio tech), it saw the same crazy volume in the last 5 min of play. Wondering if the autotrading bots got fooled with the Russell rebalance. EXEL traded about 8 million shares in the last 5 min of play except that it is a $25 stock. It is a biotech that has had a pretty good run in the last year (500%), but there was clearly sonething that happened across the board and not just to MNKD.
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jun 25, 2017 7:02:02 GMT -5
Sports:
You have pretty good comms with Mike. Wondering if you could reach out to Mike and ask him to set Aged hippie up with a 180 titration pack? That is if Aged is willing to give it a shot (puff)?
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jun 20, 2017 11:08:46 GMT -5
Took a look at the pricing on both links,
first shows prices range from 1000 -13000 Rs for the 90 packs = 25-325 USD per pack, so at the upper end of the range looks to be feasible.
second link shows price as 1Rs per unit, not sure if this is 1Rs*180units but even at the upper end of the range this is $4.50 USD per box.
Think this is just spec fire at this point. Not saying its not happening, just that the target is still being acquired.
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jun 20, 2017 9:49:19 GMT -5
Started to wander...no need to go further.
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jun 19, 2017 12:29:34 GMT -5
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jun 5, 2017 10:37:15 GMT -5
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jun 1, 2017 14:47:53 GMT -5
Yup, that is what I am saying.
Suggesting that 10-20 percent of the country's population might be able to afford a 50% discounted product.
I think when I did the MNKD Rest of World calculation I surmised that 10% of the worlds population could actually afford Afrezza at $2600 USD annually.
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jun 1, 2017 14:25:16 GMT -5
Using above data (sorry had to log off)
calcs based on family of 4(2+2)
BRZ Monthly Income: 1,856.11 * 2 = 3712 R$
BRZ Rent (3 Bed): 2650 x 85% + 1813 x 15% = 2524 R$
Net remaining: 1188 R$ ---------------------------------------- US cost of Month: $450 (1.5 boxes)
BRZ Cost of Month: $225 (est 50 % of US price) = 725 R$ ------------------------------------------------------------------
Considering that more than half of the population is below the average income level i suggest that the potential market might be 10-20% of the full market possibility.
T1 = 211M x 0.01 x .20 = 422k T2 = 211M x 0.094 x .20 = 3.9M Total 4.32M
for each 1% of the market share (T1 + T2): 43000 x 725R$ x 25% (profit) x 12 (months) = 93.5M R$ x .307 = 28.7M US$
Get 4% of Brazilian Market and MNKD is profitable (assuming $8M US month burn rate stays level)
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jun 1, 2017 11:51:46 GMT -5
I have gone sniffing around for anything related to Canada, not finding anything of value.
Health Canada - nil as at 31 May Diabetes Assoc - 7 Apr, thought Afrezza was still in Trials Corporations Canada - There is a Mannkind registered here in Canada as far back as 2005, but is not related to our team (residential tradesman). Trademarks have been registered. Mannkind.ca domain is not avail currently registered to a "Domain Robot Enterprises Inc", expires 2017/08/11 (mannkind.com is not avail either, currently registered to "Freeparking Domain Registrars Inc" last updated: 2017-05-22)
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jun 1, 2017 11:28:12 GMT -5
I think this one has strayed far enough from the title.
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jun 1, 2017 7:31:33 GMT -5
Current Population: 211M Metro Population:86% Rural Population: 14% Unemployment Rate: 13.5% Employment Rate: 53% Interest Rate: 10.25% T1 Population:0.5-1.0% T2 Population:9.4% (10.4-1.0 T1) 2014 per capita household income: 4200 (USD) adjusted to 2017: 7815 (USD) Current Tax rate: 0% - 27% (progressive) Health Care System: universal and free for everyone Drug Care System: Drug Costs compared to US: 50% ( needs more research)https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-drug-prices/ Calculations to follow.
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Post by otherottawaguy on May 31, 2017 18:22:08 GMT -5
Wondering about the dollars of the deal. No mention of funding as of yet. Assuming 9 months till approval this will have no effect on MNKD bottom line unless there is some money up front.
Does the company do another round of dilution to raise funds when this news raises the price up over 2.00?
Be interested to know what MNKD revenue will be in this jurisdiction. Once in will the product migrate across borders increasing the potential market. What percent of the population can afford the drug?
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