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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 17, 2017 14:01:29 GMT -5
I have been working on a few break-even scenarios when specific discounts are applied. The following is a summary table: Annual Fix Costs
| $120,000,000
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| Retail Cost of Box
| $300.00
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| Monthly box(es)
| 150%
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| required to make it work
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| Monthly Cost to Client
| $450.00
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| Client Annual Cost
| $5,400.00
| 12 | Month |
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| Current per 90 day
| $1,350.00
| 3 | Month
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| Marketing
| 20%
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| (include POS mark-up)
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| Variable Cost
| 20%
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| Margin after COGS
| 60%
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| Net to MNKD
| $810.00
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| per 90 day prescription
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| US TD1 Mrkt Size
| 1,250,000
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| MAX Danbury Capacity
| 2,000,000
| 12 | max lines
| annual dosages of 1 box/mnth
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| Current Danbury Cap.
| 222,222
| 2 | curr lines
| at 1.5 box/month req
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| Max Wkly TRX
| Discount
| Sale Price (90 day after discount)
| Max Rev (Wkly) (Price x TRX)
| Max Var Costs (Wkly) 90 day X (Var %+Mrkt %)
| Fixed Costs (Annual Cost / 52)
| Profit / Loss (Wkly)
| Profit / Loss (Annual)
| % of US TD1 Mrkt
| % of Curr Danbury
| 500 | 100% | $0 | $0 | $270,000
| $2,307,692.31
| $(2,577,692.31)
| $(134,040,000.00)
| 0% | 1% | 1000 | 80% | $270 | $270,000 | $540,000
| $2,307,692.31
| $(2,577,692.31)
| $(134,040,000.00)
| 0%
| 2%
| 2000 | 70% | $405 | $810,000
| $1,080,000
| $2,307,692.31
| $(2,577,692.31)
| $(134,040,000.00)
| 1%
| 4%
| 4000 | 60% | $540 | $2,160,000
| $2,160,000
| $2,307,692.31
| $(2,577,692.31)
| $(120,000,000.00)
| 1%
| 7%
| 6000 | 40% | $810 | $4,860,000
| $3,240,000
| $2,307,692.31
| $(687,692.31)
| $(35,760,000.00)
| 2%
| 11%
| 6500 | 33% | $904 | $5,879,250
| $3,510,000
| $2,307,692.31
| $61,557.69
| $3,201,000.00
| 2%
| 12%
| 8000 | 25% | $1012.50 | $8,100,000
| $4,320,000
| $2,307,692.31
| $1,472,307.69
| $76,560,000.00
| 3%
| 14%
| 10000 | 25% | $1012.50 | $10,125,000
| $5,400,000
| $2,307,692.31
| $2,417,307.69
| $125,700,000.00
| 3%
| 18%
| 20000 | 25% | $1012.50 | $20,250,000
| $10,800,000
| $2,307,692.31
| $7,142,307.69
| $371,400,000.00
| 6%
| 36%
| 30000 | 25% | $1012.50 | $30,375,000
| $16,200,000
| $2,307,692.31
| $11,867,307.69
| $617,100,000.00
| 10%
| 54%
| Break Even Scenarios |
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| 4000 | 17% | $1120 | $4,482,000
| $2,160,000
| $2,307,692.31
| $14,307.69
| $744,000.00
| 1%
| 7%
| 5000 | 25% | $1012 | $5,062,500
| $2,700,000
| $2,307,692.31
| $54,807.69
| $2,850,000.00
| 2%
| 9%
| 6500 | 33% | $904 | $5,879,250
| $3,510,000
| $2,307,692.31
| $61,557.69
| $3,201,000.00
| 2%
| 12%
| 17500 | 50% | $675 | $11,812,500
| $9,450,000
| $2,307,692.31
| $54,807.69
| $2,850,000.00
| 6%
| 32%
| 55000 | 56% | $594 | $32,967,000
| $29,970,000
| $2,307,692.31
| $689,307.69
| $35,844,000.00
| 18%
| 100%
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 12, 2017 9:25:28 GMT -5
Not sure the pre-market is paying any attention to this yet. Bid and Ask are still both below yesterdays close.
Will be interested to see the action at the open and to see where this goes today after the call.
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 12, 2017 9:15:40 GMT -5
Sorry Sports, wrong coast for this guy.
Planning on attending the shareholders meet and greet again this year.
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 9, 2017 22:35:38 GMT -5
I was having (and have had) this discussion about pricing as follows:
I agree. Drop the Price to $2600 annually, no discounts, no BS. This was about the cost of the other treatment regiments prior to the FDA approval and was what I thought was the price point intended by Dr Mann.
Figured that $120M is required to run the show at Mannkind or about $10M per month. Since there is no share with partners any more, figured that $500 would go to the seller, $500 to COGS, giving a net of $1500 annually to MNKD. (This is based upon 1 X 90 unit box per month which is probably about 2/3 of what is really required to be effective)
Need 80,000 annual subscribers to break even under the above scenario. (120M / 1500)
If you consider at the 90 day (13 week) renewal period for each script, that means the we need 80000/13 = 6153 weekly TRX. Current TRX is approximately 5% of what is required
United States TD1 population is approx 3M which equates to 231,000 weekly scripts (3M / 13 wks) for the entire market.
As to your suggestion, we would need to capture 2.36% of the US TD1 Market to break even.
At half of what the other clowns are charging, do you not think this is possible within a very short time-frame, especially if the insurers are brought on board, and they push the idea to their clients and paid-for docs?
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 9, 2017 16:50:49 GMT -5
Might also be interesting to note that I am no longer seeing MSCO (Morgan Stanley Company) on the Level II quotes for NASDAQ from my provider.
GSCO (Goldman) ASK & BID is still there usually about 15% off the current trading price. Always seems to adjust away from the market price up/down and is alwayx for the same Lot Size.
I mention this because MSCO used to be outside the bracket (20% off the market) set by GSCO.
Noticed this starting at the beginning of the new year.
Not sure if it means anything,
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 5, 2017 21:11:46 GMT -5
Anyone notice that the price was rising until the dissemination of the news at 1000h that the conference was not until the 12th?
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 3, 2017 10:28:30 GMT -5
Yup, I am watching it too. Suspect those that wanted back in during the new year are driving the price. Once those folks are done, suspect we may see high 0.50's. Debating on whether to do a flip out for a few days and get back in on Thurs/Fri. Might be able to add 10% to the trading shares.
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 3, 2017 9:25:37 GMT -5
Oh were will we spend it all, maybe paying Haken off?
I am overwhelmingly disappointed in the sum, thought that we would be seeing something in the 10M range or better.
This thing is going to drop this morning, may explain some of last weeks year end sell off as well.
Enjoy the ride,
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Dec 28, 2016 14:50:26 GMT -5
I was just looking at the Dr Oz site looking for references to Afrezza. Had the search results return 4 records if anyone is interested. Did not see anyway of submitting story ideas.
Wonder what would happen if 2600 members of this board each email one suggestion about Afrezza...
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Dec 15, 2016 14:34:12 GMT -5
or at least running neck and neck with RLS where Andrea Leona Bay works...
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Post by otherottawaguy on Dec 15, 2016 12:22:38 GMT -5
Locking this thread, title is not correct but there is some decent discussion, delisting will not happen until 2017.
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Dec 12, 2016 13:01:20 GMT -5
Sold some on Fri for .6715 and bought em back today for .61 in a tax free account. Added 10% for only $20 round trip ticket.
Going to hold through the next two weekends, looking for an RLS annoucement.
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Dec 9, 2016 14:09:15 GMT -5
Hillsave:
It might make for an interesting conversation with your Endo to see why he was so against Afrezza. Since you didn't punch his lights out, I am assuming you are still on talking terms.
I(we) would be very interested to hear what the little birds may have been whispering to him. Prepare to look at his body language when you first ask the question.
Would be interested to know if your results on Afrezza have pretty much silenced "des oiseaux" (birds: in french if you get the underlying meaning) in his mind and if he is now prescribing to others based upon your family's results.
Best wishes in your fight,
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Dec 2, 2016 12:57:23 GMT -5
Just checked VDEX's twitter feed, no traffic as of yet. I did tweet them a question about the first patient date, hopefully they can respond on Twitter.
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Oct 19, 2016 8:44:09 GMT -5
That effectively bursts that bubble and explains the last name coincidence...
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