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Post by otherottawaguy on Apr 10, 2015 11:30:13 GMT -5
MANNKIND CORPORATION 28903 North Avenue Paine Valencia, CA 91355 (661) 775-5300 NOTICE OF ANNUAL MEETING OF STOCKHOLDERS To Be Held On Thursday, May 21, 2015 Dear Stockholder: You are cordially invited to attend the Annual Meeting of Stockholders of MannKind Corporation, a Delaware corporation (“MannKind”). The meeting will be held on Thursday, May 21, 2015 at 10:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern time at the office of MannKind at 40 Taylor Street, Danbury, Connecticut 06810 for the following purposes: 1. To elect the seven nominees named herein as directors to serve for the ensuing year and until their successors are elected; 2. To approve, on an advisory basis, the compensation of the named executive officers of MannKind, as disclosed in MannKind’s proxy statement for the Annual Meeting; 3. To ratify the selection by the Audit Committee of the Board of Directors of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm of MannKind for its fiscal year ending December 31, 2015; and 4. To transact such other business as may properly come before the meeting or any adjournment or postponement thereof. These items of business are more fully described in the proxy statement accompanying this notice. The record date for the Annual Meeting is March 22, 2015. Only stockholders of record on that date may vote at the meeting or any adjournment thereof. Important Notice Regarding the Availability of Proxy Materials for the Annual Meeting of Stockholders of MannKind Corporation to be Held on May 21, 2015 at 10:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern time at the office of MannKind Corporation located at 40 Taylor Street, Danbury, Connecticut 06810. The proxy statement and annual report to stockholders are available at www.mannkindcorp.com. By Order of the Board of Directors David Thomson Corporate Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary
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Post by otherottawaguy on Apr 10, 2015 9:55:18 GMT -5
I'll take some action on a decrease, although that attempted push to 5 will probably prove me wrong.
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Apr 10, 2015 9:52:50 GMT -5
This item was noted over a year ago with no update to the status of the US trials completing. Thought we had a member here who knew a guy that new a guy... that has access. No peaks under the hood have been provided to date.
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Apr 9, 2015 14:09:59 GMT -5
If you want to read the whole thing in English replace the co.jp with .com example: www.google.co.jp/patents/US8785396www.google.com/patents/US8785396This one along is wow, and its for Method and composition for treating migraines, but also references as an example a phase 1 test for Technosphere and GPL-1": Example 8 Assessment of Glp-1 Activity in Postprandial Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of a GLP-1 dry powder formulation on postprandial glucose concentration and assess its safety including adverse events, GPL-1 activity, insulin response, and gastric emptying
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Post by otherottawaguy on Apr 8, 2015 16:10:25 GMT -5
Bob:
Took a quick spin through the sheet and just wanted to clarify that the 5.47 is the discounted revenue per share going out to 2028 and not share price? Would you want to venture as to what would be a fair P/E for a mature biotech?
Your sheet calc of the max market being 6.5M user at its height is also interesting as I have seen another number in the 6M user ballpark before.
Thank for the efforts,
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Apr 1, 2015 8:47:41 GMT -5
The copay would mean the amount his insurance does not cover. Additionally there are the coupons for the first box and those pesky but very useful sample cost to calculate.
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Apr 1, 2015 8:26:42 GMT -5
Fuga:
From what I am told, its not going to be the manufacturing costs drive this COGS. Its going to be the delivery process and marketing. This is why Matt conceded that the actual profit to MNKD was in the mid 20% during a previous call when a caller brought out how it could be calculated from data they had released but not redacted.
I think you guys must be looking at it from the AMPH perspective for the amounts of Insulin? Be interested to see what you think is the ballpark on the pure manuf costs.
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Apr 1, 2015 8:17:07 GMT -5
Had a quick discussion with another member on the boards and thought that I would seek some "peer review" and any other additional input that the community could provide.
I have taken it from the numbers acknowledged by Matt but have had it also suggested by a reputable source (from his source) that manufacturing costs of a box could actually lower.
If the numbers received from the sale then amount to the mid 20s given to mnkd as their cut (extracted numbers confirmed by Matt), I am assuming 35/25 = 1.4 or about 40% of the of the cost to the retail outlet (not the retail price to the consumer).
My breakdown of the sales price goes like this for 12 boxes (assuming 1 box per month X 12 X $287 (retail price):
Retail = 3334 Wholesale = 3334 / 120% = 2780 COGS (includes selling costs) = 2780 * 40% = 1112 (cost to manuf, cost of samples, reps and exec perks) Profit to Partnership = 2780 * 60% = 1668 Split to Mannkind = 1668 * 35% = 583 MNKD profit per box = 583/12 = 45.65 USD.
Historically, I have used estimates of 25% cut to MNKD based upon 2200 wholesale pricing so I am still in the ball park of $500/subscriber to the Afrezza Channel.
Interesting to look at it from the 45.65/ box perspective, considering what we have seen in the average cost per script filled showing on the Symphony numbers.
I would be interested to know if anyone has better intel on what percentage the COGS make up of the either the wholesale or retail price. Would also like comments as to the retail mark up percentage.
Thanks in Advance,
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Mar 31, 2015 15:48:07 GMT -5
James:
One of the reasons that I discount the $1B in milesstones is that if/when this thing takes off and captures a worldwide market share I proposed above the revenue to MNKD will look like this in 9 years if it capture 10% of the global market:
3444 [annual cost] * 10.4M [current market{10%)] * 2.35 [market size growth factor for 9 years] * 20% [MNKD's profit per annual dosage] = 16.8 Billion with a "B" ( keep rechecking this number).
The 1B in current milestones also only accounts for 1billion/470million or a little over $2.10 / share. This money and the next billion will also be in the Taxfree category as well
Nice way to think about MNKD share is that NPV and market growth rate almost cancel one another out. And using my model above that for every 1% of world market share, one can add $27.
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Mar 31, 2015 10:22:10 GMT -5
Seems that my calcs are a bit off. Both where for a 10% World Market share, feel free to double my numbers if you want (I have my helmet and flac jacket on now), let the flaming begin...
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Mar 31, 2015 10:16:46 GMT -5
Here is my response to your article in the comments section:
Where do I start...hmmm, lets do it by the numbers.
1. P/S or 8 not bad but not good either, been using P/E of 18 (On sales assuming 20% retail mark-up, 25 per cent Manuf Costs, doing the 65/35 split leaves us with 20% of sales price going to MNKD)
2. NPV of 20%, you have got to be kidding. Would not venture more than 9.5% and this would be very conservative when keeping in mind that this is company that has a FDA approved product, sold by a WORLDWIDE phamra partner. Not to mention that they have been able to finance previously for 9.5 prior to FDA approval.
3. Share Count is spot on, might want to actually bump it to 460-470M range with the warrant and bond conversions upcoming.
4. Market growth rate of 10% is good, I have not factored this into my models, but will going forward.
5. Actual retail pricing is known (discounting not factored in). The actual usage by early adopters is more like 1.5 boxes per month, but this may belayed in the coming months with the introduction of the much touted 12u cartridge. The box unit pricing that I have been using is $287 for the 90 box (8u60,4u30). Annual costs based upon this looks to be $3444 (1.5 multiple may be possible due to usage). Might be high in the short term but what are the long term reduced costs for a lowing of A1C across the board from what we are seeing from the early adopters.
6. Market for product (T1 & T2): US: 30 M + Can(3) and Mex(7??) = 40M EU: 40M ROW 220M * 10% (those that can afford it) = 22M
Total Pop: 102M and let us assume a 10% market share = 10.2M annual users
7. Milestone Payments - not going to add this into the model
8. Factories - only factories required will be for expansion outside the US in the near term, using a 10% market share of 30M diabestics though in the US may mean additional capacity is required, ((nice problem to have).
9. Free Cash Flow - not sure how to calculate when breakeven sales will occur? 500k, 1M annual patients, Avg Annual dosage requirements per patient,...
10. Peak Market in two years? Maybe in the US, but how do you know about dates for other approving jurisdictions (EMA, ROW)
So this is how my calc works out and I will base it on NPV from 5 years from today and assuming a world market:
3444 [retail cost] * 10.4M (1 + 10%)^5 [market share] * 20% [MNKD Cut of the action] * (1 + 9.5%)^-5 [NPV] / 470M [share count] * 18 [P/E] =3444 * 16.7M * 0.20 * 0.6223 / 470M * 18 = $274
or using your 20% market share at 9 years out: 3444 * 10.4M * 1.10^9 * 0.20 * 1.095^-9 / 470 (might see a buyback) * 18 = 3444 * 10.4M * 2.35 * 20% * 0.4418 / 470M * 18 = $284
So even adding a 10% probability to the scenario (this is what I did to numbers before FDA approval)
We get a NPV of somewhere between 27.40 and 28.40 today and remember no value has been added in for milestone payments nor other applications of technosphere.
Comments welcome,
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Mar 27, 2015 19:41:56 GMT -5
CJC:
You should contact Sanofi investor relations and let em know, might be just the tipping point that we need ;-)
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Mar 27, 2015 15:05:41 GMT -5
500k or 500M, think it was the latter.
1 for 1 swap for Afrezza (MNKD ownership) and you get to keep the extra share in MNKD Tech was the quick summary.
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Mar 27, 2015 9:28:11 GMT -5
He forgot to mention the very significant drop in script counts for the competitors products for the same period. Sample packs?
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Mar 27, 2015 8:44:59 GMT -5
Why are we talking about reverse splits on a thread about going to the Shareholder Meeting?
OOG
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