|
Post by otherottawaguy on Oct 9, 2014 12:12:10 GMT -5
Saw this today and yesterday. A few shares trade against it but it has effectively repelled the attack twice now.
Wonder what is waiting on the other side and if we will see it before the November earnings calls by SNY and MNKD?
There was some mention on YMB that there would be a requirement for SNY to file a form 16??? within 15 days of making a 5% purchase, yesterday/today is Day 15 since the formalization of the partnership, which leads me to believe that $5.01 may be the bottom. Still have a bit of gas in the tank in case I'm wrong.
OOG
|
|
|
Post by otherottawaguy on Oct 8, 2014 12:31:13 GMT -5
When you are given as many shares as they are, there is no reason to buy more, unless you have lent them large amounts of cash from a very large line of credit.
OOG
|
|
|
Post by otherottawaguy on Oct 6, 2014 12:37:48 GMT -5
This is a repost on NASDAQ of a Motley fool article.
OOG
|
|
|
Post by otherottawaguy on Oct 3, 2014 23:02:57 GMT -5
Have not seen a post in a while.
Hope it not because the don't have network access in Siberia.
OOG
|
|
|
Post by otherottawaguy on Oct 2, 2014 17:25:06 GMT -5
Plans for expansion.
From what i read, Matt stated that they will be potentailly looking to expand production in 6 months.
Was that six from today or six from the start of production?
What would be the new capacity post this expansion?
When will these details be confirmed?
Thanks,
OOG
|
|
|
Post by otherottawaguy on Oct 2, 2014 10:51:13 GMT -5
I refuse to go and give them the penny a click. Can we cut and past the article along with link?
OOG
|
|
|
Post by otherottawaguy on Oct 1, 2014 12:16:51 GMT -5
Maybe it is just a couple of us on this board trading out 10000 shares and buying back 10100. Maybe...
OOG
|
|
|
Post by otherottawaguy on Oct 1, 2014 8:16:13 GMT -5
Just found out that my Cash account was $27 in the hole and that they therefore had the contractual right to lend out all of my holdings in the account. What a bunch of shysters...
Going to kill the margin ability on that account this week.
OOg
|
|
|
Post by otherottawaguy on Sept 25, 2014 8:14:46 GMT -5
Be interested to know others opinions how they see this moving post deal closing announcement last night.
I am see a spike into 1030h to maybe the 6.40s and then a drop back to the current mid 7.20s by the close (maybe even the teens).
Not sure why this should make any difference as this was an assumed non issue, it will be the playground of the momo crowd for the next week or so.
OOG
sorry should have added this that we have only seen 90k shares in premarket, priced around 6.27 and spike last night to 7.50 range for 12k shares.
|
|
|
Post by otherottawaguy on Sept 11, 2014 13:43:28 GMT -5
Credit line was intended for covering potential initial operating losses, but if the demand exceeds current production capacity, then expansion would be my bet as well.
Adding to that, if expansion is required, they are probably meeting production and sales goals, so milestone payments should be avail as well.
OOG
|
|
|
Post by otherottawaguy on Sept 11, 2014 13:37:26 GMT -5
Forgot to discount for time until end of 2015. In doing so should be closer to $7 today.
Under current Danbury max production of 3 lines using your COGS and discounting for time: 500K (patients) * (2600- (45%* (2600) [COGS])) *.80[after pharma markup removed] * 35% [Royalty Rate] / 450M [Share Count w Warrants] * (1/(1.085 ^ 1.5)([discount to end of 2015] * PE =500k * 2600 * 0.55 * .80 * 0.35 / 450M * 0.885 * 18[P/E] =500k * $400 / 450M * 15.92 =500K * $0.0000141 =$7.07 pps (vs my previous estimate of $6)
|
|
|
Post by otherottawaguy on Sept 11, 2014 9:27:55 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by otherottawaguy on Sept 11, 2014 9:24:49 GMT -5
Wanted to correct my pricing, seems that I miss calculated the output capacity per line. Should have been 500k vs the 375k that I used. Under current Dandbury max production of 3 lines using your COGS and discounting for time: 500K (patients) * (2600- (45%* (2600) [COGS])) *.80[after pharma markup removed] * 35% [Royalty Rate] / 450M [Share Count w Warrants] * (1/(1.085 ^ 1.5)([discount to end of 2015] =500k * 2600 * 0.55 * .80 * 0.35 / 450M * 18[P/E] =500k * $400 / 450M * 18 =500K * $0.000016 =$8 pps (vs my previous estimate of $6) Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/1213/share-current-value-believe-saying#ixzz3D16t6G4A
|
|
|
Post by otherottawaguy on Sept 11, 2014 9:13:18 GMT -5
I think another big tell will be what they do with the milestones after paying off the upcoming debt.
At 8-10M per line, sounds like the second payment will allow for complete build out to 12 lines from the current 3, if demand warrants.
Be interested to see if they expect to expand production capacity in 2015 or if it will wait to 2016 (or later (hope not)).
OOG
|
|
|
Post by otherottawaguy on Sept 10, 2014 13:04:42 GMT -5
Hammer:
Number of $500 per patient seems to be inline with my calculations as well. You seem to figure that we are going to capture 6.2M of the 60-70M diabetics in USA and Europe or approx. 10%. You might want to expand you worldwide numbers to include Canada (30M), Australia(23M), UK(64M), Japan(127M) and a few others to get higher potential market. If you take just the specific ones that I have mentioned that is 244M * 10% (rate of diabetes * 10% = 2.4M increase in market share. Add to this all of the other potential markets and I could see you 6.2 being closer to 10M at the end of the game.
10M * $500 = $5Billion Profit
$5B / 450M (share count) * 18 (PE) = $200 pps in 2020 $5B / 450M (share count) * 30 (PE) = $333 pps in 2020
But hey, most of will be happy with your paltry $140, I know I will.
OOG
|
|