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Post by saxcmann on Mar 17, 2017 10:22:23 GMT -5
kbrion writes... "Scripts increase will maybe increase share price but then you will just get dilution. Mannkind needs to have an Apple getting $150M from Microsoft moment right now." kb, totally agree. I also anticipate more dilution even with improving sales unless MNKD can demonstrate an "explosive" increase to entice a "Microsoft-like" partner in the next 6 months. The scam Sanofi partnership and launch caused a huge obstacle going forward in attracting partners in the required time to extend the operational cash runway. Sanofi had MNKD over a barrel when it came to negotiating settlement outcomes; and unfortunately imo Sanofi's stink continues to hoover over and impair MNKD's recovery. Future shareholder dilution seems inevitable barring a huge, unprecedented increase in Afrezza sales. JMHO Agree as well. Increased scripts will open many doors. Which door(s) will mnkd open? Yes, Dilution door is one door. Other doors will open...
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Post by saxcmann on Mar 17, 2017 10:16:59 GMT -5
Even if we kept half of them that would only be 25 reps. We have between 80 and 100 now. I think for many reasons we are much better off now.The numbers seem to tell otherwise. This new salesforce that Matt and Mike have been pumping about cant even break 250 scripts a week. The old contract sales force did better all of December and almost all of October and November with half the people than this new "improved" sales team. Its really very pathetic given the other factors that have improved like coverage and lesser demands on PA. The new sales team looks to be less rather than more effective. If this keeps up how soon will it be before we are wishing we had the old sales team back? You and I both know it's too early to decide if the new sales team is making headway. Next 8 weeks will be crucial for mnkd to increase scripts. If not numbers don't lie...agree
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Post by saxcmann on Mar 16, 2017 21:20:45 GMT -5
I earnestly believe this is a life changing drug being mercilessly attacked by BP and the MDs they've purchased at the highest echelons.
[/quote]
Correct Tinker
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Post by saxcmann on Mar 15, 2017 15:39:55 GMT -5
"Problem is that most docs are risk averse and happy to follow established and profitable routes."
Very well said!
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Post by saxcmann on Mar 14, 2017 12:51:09 GMT -5
Listened to it last night. Nothing new. Scripts are expected to increase which is possible. Will they increase enough to cover the 10 million / month expense? No. Just trying to get close to Sanofi numbers to show marketability...
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Post by saxcmann on Mar 13, 2017 23:15:01 GMT -5
I thought most telling comment from Matt saying he expected scripts to go up in next few weeks. Gonna get ugly if they don't?... MNKD has passed ugly. Ok...more ugly
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Post by saxcmann on Mar 13, 2017 19:29:34 GMT -5
I thought most telling comment from Matt saying he expected scripts to go up in next few weeks. Gonna get ugly if they don't?...
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Post by saxcmann on Mar 6, 2017 11:56:11 GMT -5
Its not a failure. It did what it was supposed to do and prevent them from being delisted. If it was a 1:10 the stock would be down 24% vs 12% It will be a failure if we go under $1 in 10 days from split, no?
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Post by saxcmann on Mar 6, 2017 8:37:42 GMT -5
There has to be a two pronged approach. MNKD will have to simultaneously educate prescribers on the merits of Afrezza while also informing diabetics that Afrezza exists as an option for them. Quite frankly, MNKD has failed on both fronts so far which is why you've seen laughable script numbers every week. Doctors have proven to be unwilling to write scripts for Afrezza. Why? It could be that they are generally risk-averse to a new drug, but I also believe that it's because there has been little to no effort by sales personnel to get the drug prescribed. I realize this may be a difficult task and easier said than done, but seeing 200-250 scripts per week nationwide is pathetic by any standard. Sanofi at one point was seeing 600 scripts per week if I'm not mistaken, and the trend appeared to be positive until they likely decided that Afrezza wasn't meeting expectations and decided to pull the plug, at which point all efforts to sell Afrezza stopped. They waited until the first available option to terminate the partnership and did so. But seeing how things can go, there's no reason to believe that a sales force that's any good at all can't achieve similar results. It will take better communication than we've seen thus far and it will be incumbent on the sales team to convince doctors that the product is better than the label says it is. Perhaps a label change will help with this, but that's going to be several months away and MNKD doesn't have that long. The sales team also has to do a better job in explaining titration to physicians to ensure patient retention. Bottom line: the sales team has to deliver. For patients, we've seen pretty anemic attempts by MNKD to inform the public that the product even exists. Mike said on the call that 9 out of 10 people are completely unaware of Afrezza at all. There has to be more than JDRF walks and paper inserts into football programs that nobody reads. A for effort but F on results. It has proven to be worthless. There has to be well-crafted and appealing nationwide commercials to inform the public that there is a needle-free option. Thankfully, this too is in the works but time is of the essence. It needed to happen yesterday. Yes, commercials would be better served with a new label if that ever occurs, but once again, MNKD cannot afford to wait. Bottom line: the commercial team (Mike) needs to deliver. The two are symbiotic. Both must exist for Afrezza to be a success. To date, MNKD has failed miserably on both but I believe they are actually devoting time and resources into giving Afrezza a chance. Make no mistake about it. If Afrezza doesn't succeed within the next year, assuming MNKD can find a way to stay alive that long, then MNKD will have demonstrated themselves to be completely incapable of doing it at all, which does not bode well for Epi or any other future product, or the company in general. Good post knight. I agree mostly. Not sure they have a few years? Scripts need to get close to Sanofi numbers and things will turn.
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Post by saxcmann on Mar 2, 2017 16:53:39 GMT -5
I did too pal but I feel the opposite. Everyone thinks this ship is sinking but I'm confident that MNKD is working their plan which included getting the stock levels under control. The outstanding stock out is now close to that of 2005-2006 level (100mm) and the float is ~50mm shares. MNKD knows that IF they do not now bring forth excellent news that the $2.50 on Friday will not hold....that is totally obvious! That is why I believe the perfect storm is about to make land; I also believe that MNKD management and BOD have been working a mission plan for a very long time and it is now complete. The pps will move in one direction commencing Monday...UP. I simply do not believe that this R/S was from weakness and that was emphasized by Matt if anyone was listening. Hope so Mike. Maybe scripts go up tomorrow...Maybe good news Monday...maybe no dilution...Maybe the perfect storm...just maybe!
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Post by saxcmann on Mar 2, 2017 10:12:07 GMT -5
I personally think its time to replace Matt! Maybe they will. Mike pretty much runs the show behind the scenes anyway...
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Post by saxcmann on Mar 1, 2017 22:19:34 GMT -5
I think Matt thought the sanofi settlement would take share price up to the $1 mark. price got to 80 cents then the new sales team initiative started. Exactly
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Post by saxcmann on Mar 1, 2017 14:29:37 GMT -5
What good would that do? Even if MNKD executed the R/S today there are not 10 business days remaining between now and March 13. So either way, MNKD technically needs an extension. You make a good point. It appears that by waiting until March 1, the company has already passed the threshold of self-correction assuming a R/S is implemented if 10 trading days above $1 is required. Another bungle by management? Who would have thought? A R/S is coming. No question about it. Only question now is when they'll dilute?...immediately or wait until June. Why wait if no news coming? I'm expecting dilution sooner than later. Hope I'm wrong...
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Post by saxcmann on Mar 1, 2017 13:52:33 GMT -5
Meeting is over I did record it and will try to figure out how to post it. There were 8 shareholders in attendance, both measures passed. There was a open question period after the meeting, Matt would only speak about public information already available. All of the information was the same, but with more color at least for me. Matt and MNKDs legal council (Don't remember his name) were in the conference room with the shareholders and all others were on a conference call. Overall it was what I expected and they feel they have the right plan in play to move the company ahead. Quick notes; Cash until 3 quarter, 2017 Feel current pricing is right The new nurse education program is the way to move ahead Have 70% coverage with no or "light" pre-authorization , (Light means, MD's wont prescribe off label) Stated in the official meeting that reverse spit would be at the discretion of the BOD I did not ask if they were going to file for the 6 month extension as I felt that was covered before. Need to get to a meeting sorry so rushed and any mistakes, I try and updated later. Jay Looks like Jay just got his credibility back! 😊
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Post by saxcmann on Mar 1, 2017 13:45:55 GMT -5
I was in the area this morning and stopped by for the meeting. Spoke to Matt while I was waiting in the lovby. He said the meeting will be 10 minutes or so with no questions. I told him I would still like to see it. Will keep you posted. Jay, Gary said he called MNKD and Mike and Matt would not be at the meeting? Very glad you are there:-) Think Jay just lost his credibility...
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