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Post by saxcmann on Mar 1, 2017 7:50:49 GMT -5
so someone is going and will give us report? I heard from my friend and this is what he found out: He called Mannkind yesterday to ask for an agenda for tomorrows meeting and if there was any presentation materials. They told him there is no agenda and that Matt & Mike would not be at the meeting. They will be attending "remotely" Sounds like a 5 minute meeting.
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Post by saxcmann on Feb 28, 2017 12:41:35 GMT -5
Reactions "Charles Kaplan, president of the investment consulting firm Equity Analytics, told Bankrate.com, "It is usually a very negative sign when a company reverse splits their stocks." But how the market reacts often depends on what else the company is doing to reverse its fortunes. If it simply declares the reverse split and goes on with business as usual, investors may see the split as nothing more than a smoke screen, and the price may go right back to falling as they sell their shares. But if the split is accompanied by serious changes in management, structure or strategy, investors may give the company more time to right the ship."finance.zacks.com/reverse-stock-split-good-bad-2298.htmlIn our dreams unfortunately. We are most likely looking at a R/S followed by dilution which will be spun as a positive development, "We have significantly extended our financial runway to execute our strategy of successfully marketing and commercializing Afrezza." If diluted right away I don't see anything positive from that. You said..."We are most likely looking at a R/S followed by dilution" ...I'm not convinced it will be immediate. I find many reasons why they might wait for dilution until June/July. I will say mnkd management never goes the route I think tho!
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Post by saxcmann on Feb 27, 2017 13:14:05 GMT -5
I'm idle and am probably that horse. Unlike the Type 1 Kastanes mentioned I lack a real incentive to change. If my A1c was horrible, or I hate needles, or I was having problems there would be a reason.
Absent that motivation though it's a disruption to my routine and I am very risk adverse in that area. I would have to relearn how to handle insulin and learn all the tricks of a new regime. Logically I know I should make the move, but practically I am reluctant.[/quote]
Bingo! I think a lot of PWD are like this...
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Post by saxcmann on Feb 22, 2017 14:20:10 GMT -5
Is it safe to say that having released the new titration packs there will probably not be a label change? That would not be safe to say.
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Post by saxcmann on Feb 22, 2017 12:50:20 GMT -5
Shoot! No Endos? Does anyone else find that a little concerning? I'm a dermatologist, and if there was a game changing new medication in my field, I would definitely be taking more interest in it as a prescriber, and as an investor. I wonder why the lack of interest in the endocrinology field. The only endocrinologist I know well seemed to be under informed about it, so I'm hoping that's the case in general. At least that can (hopefully) be corrected. Or have we all just convinced ourselves that this is a better medication than it really is?? From everything I've read about it, I'm convinced....I just wish I could hear back from someone that would actually write for it! Oh well. My endo friend would not comment on this board or any other message board for that matter. He does read occasionally this board. I'm sure other endos and mnkd management reads this board at times. I discuss afrezza and other diabetes drugs several times a week with my endo friend. My endo friend is private and wouldn't waste his time replying to posters. My comments in general (when talking about afrezza) are accurate with his views as well. And yes, he writes for it! 😊
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Post by saxcmann on Feb 21, 2017 20:22:11 GMT -5
So, the family silver is sold as well now. There is nothing else to sell to raise cash (yes, dilution is next).. RS is the way to go to continue to be traded on NASDAQ. Assuming 10:1 (why get stuck below $5), I hope they come up with a secondary already done (as someone already suggested) to raise some cash (I'm sure they need $100million to last another 12/18 months with ads and stuff?). I'm sure there will be renewed shorting. Hopefully, hopefully the scripts start going up in the coming weeks. May be 40 cents ($4) is the bottom for the next 2-3 months after dilution? Sounds about right to me. Then we start to climb around June-July ( as in PPS if scripts have taken off:-) and Matt will be saying...How Do You Like Me Now? ( Toby Keith ) If dilution comes before scripts rising in June-July we'll see $2.50-3.00? Shorts will hammer down. mnkd smart enough to wait or just dilute after RS?
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Post by saxcmann on Feb 21, 2017 9:08:59 GMT -5
Someone wrote about the dichotomy between a non-inferiority trial and their fantastic experience with Afrezza just about two years ago. They asked the question why does a non-inferior product work so well for them? The trial said Afrezza was non-inferior and their statement proves that is true for them. The next step is to have a trial to prove superiority. MNKD was forced to move forward with 171/175 trials to get fda approval. It's like having a Ferrari (afrezza) and make the driver stay in 2nd gear thru the race track!
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Post by saxcmann on Feb 18, 2017 11:26:47 GMT -5
I like your answer, but again, MNKD is too conservative. Hopefully, someone from MNKD's medical dept. gets back to the endo and schools the salesman. I would have said that according to the trials we saw less weight gain than with Lispro, or whatever was the most accurate with the least information, like yours, but a little dig against the competition. Don't explain why. Refer to medical dept. That said, if he presses, "The answer is YES, theoretically, if titrated properly, and we are working on the trials to meet FDA regulations so that we can say so to a wider audience. If you require further explanation, I can arrange a discussion between you and our medical department. Since Afrezza is monomeric RHI, it follows, but I'm not a doctor..." (Do you see how I said so without saying so?) Once the door was opened, it might be good to draw comparisons with RAA. Then, say according to the trial data and recent anecdotal evidence of patients, we believe that transitioning off RAA to Afrezza could result in weight loss until a patient reaches a new equilibrium. Again, we are looking forward to new trials and data to confirm on a larger scale with the FDA. If you are interested, we can provide more information as this progresses. We are also more than happy to include you and your patients in future trials and papers. Bait the hook so the endo can publish... Quite frankly I'm not sure we understand the question which is why the salesperson should have queried the Doc further. My interpretation of the question is that "weight neutral" means, is dosing the same for someone that weighs 300# as for someone who weighs 150# therefore being "weight neutral"? A good salesperson would have asked for clarification. I don't always know the answer to customer questions but I also can't get the proper answer until I understand the basis of the question. That's how you learn in sales. "We" understand the question. Weight neutral is about weight gain or loss in patients. No clarification needed for this endo question.
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Post by saxcmann on Feb 13, 2017 18:54:04 GMT -5
According to the latest available filing (3/21/2016) the Al Mann trust owned 153M Shares or 32% of the company. In today's document the Al Mann trust is noted as owning 203M shares or 42% of the company. That is a significant increase. This is big news in my opinion! Plus 100 million shorts! 42% is getting close to 50%...hmmm? Not implying anything just saying. Unfortunately Mann Trust didn't purchase more shares. In fact they sold more. I didn't think his family would sell but looks like they did. Sounds like we'll have a RS split soon and dilution soon after. Mnkd 3.0 launch is my last rodeo. Scripts need to start rising soon or it will be everyone's last rodeo.
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Post by saxcmann on Feb 13, 2017 9:46:40 GMT -5
I think that part of that increase in holdings may have been from the estate deciding to execute Al Mann's option awards (restricted options and option-to-buy) after he passed away. According to the latest available filing (3/21/2016) the Al Mann trust owned 153M Shares or 32% of the company. In today's document the Al Mann trust is noted as owning 203M shares or 42% of the company. That is a significant increase. This is big news in my opinion! Plus 100 million shorts! 42% is getting close to 50%...hmmm? Not implying anything just saying.
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Post by saxcmann on Feb 13, 2017 9:30:50 GMT -5
I believe that's correct also but cash will be a problem in 6 months so they will split and dilute unless they get cash, imo. The way I read the statement that was put out today is that as soon as it has been approved the r/s will be implemented the same day. This is not an approval for a possible r/s, it is approval for a r/S and the r/s is happening. Share holders are not voting on the ratio either - it is up to the board. The vote will happen, it will be approved and on March 2 there will be significantly fewer shares at a higher pps. To think this won't happen is borderline foolish Likely YES RS happens after vote approved. Likely dilution next...
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Post by saxcmann on Feb 13, 2017 9:09:12 GMT -5
Thanks Rick I've read this before. The conditions for the 2nd grace period says it all. MannKind does not have to do a reverse split unless they are still under a buck during the end of the 2nd 180 day grace period. That's how I and others read that.. And is why they need the approval for the reverse split to show they can cure the deficiency if need be. I believe that is correct. I believe that's correct also but cash will be a problem in 6 months so they will split and dilute unless they get cash, imo.
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Post by saxcmann on Feb 9, 2017 14:17:35 GMT -5
I'm curious to know what people think the likelihood of dilution is after the R/S? If people believe it will happen, how soon do you expect it? As crazy as it sounds, I actually might use the R/S as a chance to average down (more). Obviously, dilution would be disastrous for current shareholders and buying before the dilution would be stupid. Just trying to time a possible purchase correctly and take advantage of MNKD's weakness, assuming they can eventually right the ship. *I caveat this by saying that I realize that I'm incredibly stupid for even thinking of investing more money in to MNKD, seeing how I'm six figures underwater. I'm so far in the hole, my warped logic can almost convince me that averaging down my share price to under $2 might actually pay off if we can sell Afrezza to more people nationwide in a week than your average local Chipotle serves in an afternoon. If Matt is smart (and I think he is), he will immediately tap the ATM facility after a R/S, diluting by 10 to 30%. Why? 1. MNKD needs money. Not short term, but definitely medium and long term. 2. The ATM is limited to A. 20M shares and B. $50M dollars. Currently, MNKD would only get $10M at most (probably less, since selling 20M shares would depress the share price.) Do a 10:1 and you could get the whole $50M. That's an extra 2 quarters of runway, and you don't even need an institution or private placement on the other end of the sale. Share count will shrink from 480M to 48M, so the sale of, say, 15M shares will represent dilution of about 25%. This is my bet too. Exactly what will happen. Hopefully with a little good news sprinkled in to keep the pps over $3 after split...
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Post by saxcmann on Feb 3, 2017 17:37:01 GMT -5
That's what I hear:-) And also that a lot of the early adapters will be there to show the sales reps their results and share about their life changing experiences. so they dont pay for dinner meetings for docs who write the RX , but demo for sales reps? Yes, they pay dinner meetings for docs who write the RX.
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Post by saxcmann on Feb 2, 2017 22:37:27 GMT -5
But what about the argument that money for DTC is wasted if docs won't prescribe or (because of label restrictions) don't know how Afrezza should be taken? Poor renewal numbers is a huge problem, mostly because patients don't know how to use Afrezza -- and DTC won't fix that. Let's hope the new sales force can somehow educate more docs without running afoul of the FDA. Should have been a two pronged approach NY Lefty. They totally dropped the ball on this. IMO Its more complicated than that. That's the problem. Its more like a 5 prong approach. That's why it take so much time and money to be successful. All 5 pronges must improve to get scripts up, imo. My 5 prong approach... 1. DTC Advertising for awareness 2. *Educate Endos(type 1) 3. *Educate PCPs(type 2) 4. Improve Label/Clinical Data 5. Increase Insurance Coverage *Educate doctors to understand roadblocks... 1. Spirometry test (portable, cheap) 2. Dosing/Titration (samples, sizes, etc) 3. Mannkind Cares (Insurance hurdles) 4. PK/PD Profile (differences from RAAs)
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