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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 17, 2018 13:15:01 GMT -5
But this story gets more interesting--on the cruise I had the pleasure of having to interact with a gentlemen who had been the CEO of an international bank. At each meal and social hour I had to listen to him complain about European socialism. But it just so happened when we returned to Oslo after our cruise we were checking into our hotel as we flying out the next morning. The gentlemen made a misstep and fell at the entrance to the hotel--busted his forehead, broke his glasses and he was bleeding badly. The hotel called for a taxi, luckily my cousin who is a medical doctor examined him and thought he wouldn't need an ambulance but he went with him to the hospital. They were gone for less two hours--can back to the hotel, after having been given a MRI to see if there was any internal damage, twenty stitches, etc. and being examined by two medical doctors---his payment to the hospital came to approximately $25.00. He probably is worse off paying $25.00 vs the real cost of the treatment because of the higher tax rate he pays on a large amount of income. I guess I'd find that predictable rather than terribly interesting
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 17, 2018 12:36:01 GMT -5
So there is no way the uninsured will be paying $600 per month. I wonder how this subscription plan will work so it’s affordable. Especially if Sanofi is selling RAA for $179 per box to the insured and uninsured alike. For me that is just over two months insulin. Can you give some details on this? What is the retail price vs how much is voucher to get to $179 price to uninsured? Or are you saying that the insurance companies are only paying $179 for a months supply of RAA? The revenue overall for RAAs would indicated on average a much higher price for a month's supply.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 17, 2018 12:26:21 GMT -5
Looks like mixed messages. No way to really know until biweekly short interest comes out. Hopefully if there were any significant short covering we'd be getting meaningful price appreciation. I'm guessing it's more increase in supply for loan rather than covering... but that's certainly a guess. Trading volume has been pretty low and price isn’t moving so maybe it’s just slow and steady covering. Dreamboat, I’m a bit confused by your supply comment. I thought I learned from members here that the buyers of the new 14M shares/warrants shorted before they took possession of the shares and would use the shares to close out the short position after the stock dropped. Isn’t that what we just witnessed the last couple of weeks? So now, if those short positions have been closed and they have taken their profits shorting the 14M shares, they are now making those 14M shares available to be loaned, therefore more supply than demand and the falling interest rate? Do I understand this correctly? Shares do not have to be delivered immediately when a short occurs. My understanding is that someone with information about a PIPE cannot short until they are obligated to the PIPE (i.e. signed documents). Shares are normally delivered quickly after the PIPE is signed, usually quick enough that they could be used to deliver on the short before shares actually would need to be borrowed. I don't even think this would be considered a "naked short" since the shorter would know where they will obtain shares for delivery. At least this is my understanding. Bottom line, that sort of shorting doesn't necessarily need to effect borrow rates. Perhaps there is a potential that some organization might have shorted early based on a general understanding that all of us should have had that dilution would be necessary before that organization would be prevented from shorting by virtue of having insider info about the offering but not yet obligated it. But that exposes them to trading risk that apparently is not usually the operating MO of these organization. I do not know first hand, but others have said these entities would rather do the short term nearly risk free maneuver of waiting until they have a guaranteed discount on the shares (but not yet public information) and then short briefly to cover the time period needed for delivery of the shares. How quickly (or if) these extra 14M shares might end up with organizations willing to loan, and how quickly their appearance would result in lower loan rates or returned shares is something that I do not profess to know. We're all left reading tea leaves until the open short interest data comes out... and looking in my cup, I realize I'm drinking coffee this morning. So I could be way off base.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 17, 2018 10:37:17 GMT -5
Looks like mixed messages. No way to really know until biweekly short interest comes out.
Hopefully if there were any significant short covering we'd be getting meaningful price appreciation. I'm guessing it's more increase in supply for loan rather than covering... but that's certainly a guess.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 16, 2018 13:38:58 GMT -5
This week the demand for loaned shares really dropped off. My shares are still around 80% loaned out and that has never happened since I joined the program. Interest paid dropped again today, down to 23.125% at Fidelity. It sure feels like we’ve hit a near term bottom. Interest paid down to 20.25% today at Fidelity. 20% of my shares still not loaned out. Likely some of the 14M new shares making it into the lending pool, combined with no near term catalyst for the shorts for at least a few months until another capital raise becomes necessary. Will be interesting if any meaningful covering has occurred.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 16, 2018 12:57:44 GMT -5
Even if its only to keep diabetics alive and complication free until the cure arrives, I hope for all of our sakes that Afrezza catches on as soon as possible. We head to the first "Adult" endocrinology appointment for my son today to see if Kaiser will write and pay for an Afrezza Rx. His new adult GP already remarked that he had never seen a T1D with hba1c as low as son's. Will follow up. Now, back to the cure news: www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-03943-0time to sell some insulin! Which regional Kaiser are you with?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 16, 2018 12:09:39 GMT -5
That is underfunded socialized medicine. It would be expected that Vets would have very expensive healthcare needs based on their service. The VA is not funded to that reality. Hence not having drug addiction services sufficiently prevalent geographically. Would a fully funded voucher system work better than fully funded VA? That I cannot say, but I'm pretty confident the level of funding the VA currently has would not provide adequate care to all vets if redirected to a voucher system for privatized services. Either way, more money would need to be spent to give the type of care our vets deserve. They are not underfunded. Another vet I know received a $50K grant from the same local VA last month to help with an equine-assisted therapy program he is starting. I'd be willing to bet dollars to donuts that is a congressional appropriation specifically for that and doesn't come out of general VHA budget. I bet with a little googling you'd find it was some in congress wanting to look good on veterans issues by sponsoring this, but that the amount of money actually spent on it is drop in the bucket of the VA budget. Congress does yearly appropriations for VHA. There are more vets that want to enroll in VHA than they have money for. VHA has to choose to spend less on those already enrolled or turn more away at the door. Objectively speaking VHA pays less for many things vs private healthcare... doctors services, hospital services, pharmaceuticals. The studies I've seen indicate that if VHA were to switch to a voucher system for private insurance it would require more money, not less. If you know of any study to the contrary I'd be interested in seeing it. If more money need be dedicated, it is worth considering whether it is better spent on existing VHA system... and it may well be the best solution is some combination of vouchers for private services combined with VHA for specialized care more unique to combat vets.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 13, 2018 19:35:31 GMT -5
One drop (app support + cash program) I would like to see more progress made on efforts like this that can reduce the involvement of insurance companies. Right now the fate of the company seems to be in the hands of insurance companies. Unless MNKD were to basically give away Afrezza (e.g. 1/10th what they charge now), there would likely be far fewer people that could afford to pay totally themselves than the number that currently have insurance coverage for Afrezza. Like it or not, to come even close to recovering the cost of developing a new drug like Afrezza (or in MNKD's situation, merely getting out from under the mountain of debt left from development), the drug must be priced such that few could afford it paying cash... and thus the success is in the hands of the insurance companies.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 13, 2018 16:35:47 GMT -5
Schwab today returned shares in 2 of the 3 accounts I hold MNKD. They are not overly quick to return shares, so I suspect they are not expecting an uptick in demand for shares in the near future.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 13, 2018 12:41:12 GMT -5
I will not be at the annual shareholder meeting this year. If someone could Ben so kind as to raise the question as to why the Alfred Mann foundation is not helping the company by setting up meetings so afrezza sales reps can discuss afrezza with the doctors at John Hopkins USC etc given Al previous donations. Now they may say that the AMF has no relation to mankind. If they do go down that road please note that this is not true at all and the AMF has been advised of this in writing. And Not only is AMF not Mannkind, but the institutes set up at these universities are not part of AMF. Further, unless by coincidence, these institutes likely have no influence over the clinical endocrinology physicians. And donations from the past carry very little weight unless there is possibility of it being followed up with new money. If Al couldn't influence these universities to adopt Afrezza while he was alive, the chances of his foundation now doing so are probably slim to none.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 12, 2018 23:58:24 GMT -5
Our high ( IPO ) was $100 let’s go for $40:-) Might as well just go for $100.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 12, 2018 21:39:18 GMT -5
If one considers all the warrants, debt conversion rights, employee stock option plan, etc., the number of shares obligated is now about 180M if my previous calculations were correct. I might have even missed some, so it could be higher. brotherm1... I can't plot it out over time but I believe the total float at the time of IPO was about 40 million shares. So adjusting for RS that is 8 million in today's shares. So the dilution has taken us from 8M to 180M. Some seem to believe that a share price target that seemed reasonable at the time of IPO should still be today, but obviously that is not logical.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 12, 2018 18:30:26 GMT -5
What about next round of selling stock to raise cash? Q3 or Q4
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 12, 2018 14:43:13 GMT -5
“If a partnership is not finalized with a decent upfront cash payment this quarter, then the MNKD story deteriorates even more” If the STAT studies are anything but bad, why would Mike sign any partnership before the results are released ?? I think any partnership will be signed after the STAT study results are revealed. And I also believe this is why we just raised the $$$ that some shareholders are disappointed about, other than the obvious reasons of keeping the lights on. I think getting by as we have been for a few more months is smart, as long as the STAT results are medium good to great. Limp along, release the study results, then look at finalizing any partnership deals they may have pending. Just my opinion, but I sure hope I’m right. My guess is that the term sheet is for China, and it is not AMPH which has first right of refusal. Get into the negotiating period with AMPH now before ADA. I would think Mike would want to renegotiate the insulin purchase requirements in exchange for letting them match the China deal. No upfront cash, but a much improved balance sheet in the future. That was already done. Mike did renegotiate the insulin deal long ago and did give them the right to match any China deal. He can't now demand more for a right that he has already provided them. So if there is a term sheet with a third party AMPH would just accept the terms or turn them down.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 12, 2018 12:42:38 GMT -5
Bill has accurately summarized the downside, or even what we may consider to be the status quo. But even though the STAT study results may not result in an immediate acceleration in scripts, it may give investors a reason to buy MNKD stock. The market is forward looking. It's the story that counts. And if the story changes, so will the market's attitude toward MNKD. If at some point there is any good news that changes the story, either shorts capitulate or someone will take a position to force a short squeeze. That's just the reality of the market. There is no guarantee the story will change. If only 25% of the STAT study patients maintained time in range for any significant amount of time then I doubt there will be a phase change in physicians' attitudes toward Afrezza. If the script growth of the past few weeks is not maintained or accelerated, then Mike C's story of a sales turnaround loses credibility. If a partnership is not finalized with a decent upfront cash payment this quarter, then the MNKD story deteriorates even more. However, if 80% or 90% of the STAT study subjects were able to dial-in Afrezza and stay in range for a significant period of time with no significant hypoglycemia or hyperglycemia, then I think physicians will take notice. So will institutions and investors with deep pockets. If scripts maintain the latest growth rate or the growth rate accelerates so that TRx break 600 and in May or June exceed Sanofi's highest number, then I think there is some support for the pps. If the partnership promised for this quarter comes through with an upfront cash payment of 20 - 50 million, then I think we see the pps bounce back. If Kendall takes to the road with a compelling story for Afrezza based on the STAT study and those 60 prior studies, then maybe the whole mindset changes about Afrezza and MNKD. If more than one of the above comes to fruition, then I think we and MNKD win, shorts lose. Game over. We have to remember that the longer Mike C is able to execute his strategic plan the more potential positives like the Levin study and Brazil and TreT come into play. Also, we tend to think of the non-US market as simply lowering per-unit COG. But in a situation where the uptake in the US is slow, additional clinical experience elsewhere could impact what is happening here as well. Obviously we do not know how any of this will turn out. But there are so many potential positives in play, I find it difficult to give up now. “If a partnership is not finalized with a decent upfront cash payment this quarter, then the MNKD story deteriorates even more” If the STAT studies are anything but bad, why would Mike sign any partnership before the results are released ?? I think any partnership will be signed after the STAT study results are revealed. And I also believe this is why we just raised the $$$ that some shareholders are disappointed about, other than the obvious reasons of keeping the lights on. I think getting by as we have been for a few more months is smart, as long as the STAT results are medium good to great. Limp along, release the study results, then look at finalizing any partnership deals they may have pending. Just my opinion, but I sure hope I’m right. One deal supposedly already has a signed term sheet. What's the rationale for waiting on STAT presentation?
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