|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 12, 2018 12:31:01 GMT -5
But if the marketing was actually successful as has been said, then the competitors already know which territories they are because they get data from Symphony and IMS. They also undoubtedly get data on exactly how many times commercials get run by all competing products. True that MNKD shouldn't release plans for marketing before they are implemented, but providing more transparency to shareholders after the fact is a very different story as that exposes very little that the competitors would not already know. Symphony and IMS provide weekly, territory-specific data? They sell it.
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 11, 2018 19:02:46 GMT -5
Would owners of warrants be considered naked or not naked if they shorted shares? The purchasers of the shorted shares must get shares by the delivery date. Warrants don't serve that purpose. So if shares to borrow were not located when the short is executed it would be considered "naked" and if the shares were located then it would not.
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 11, 2018 17:38:16 GMT -5
Check your crystal balls again ... the STAT study will bring in endos which will bring in cash/patients. You probably need to check your expectations if you think scripts are going to soar rapidly right after the ADA presentation. Think about all the overblown expectations regarding the label change and the effect that would have on scripts. I'm sure STAT will be good results and show better time in range, but a vast majority of doctors are still thinking in terms of A1c. The STAT results will gradually become more useful as the medical community actually starts thinking about time in range, which is a process that is slowly happening. MNKD doesn't have the resources to be a major player in effecting that change.
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 11, 2018 17:22:02 GMT -5
There have been several comments critical of management for not providing market territory details. No company should provide details about how and where they are trying to disrupt market share. This is especially true when competitors are industry giants with massive funding. IMO Mike does an excellent job of sharing general marketing information without disclosing specifics. I'm hopeful the company has a plan to ramp up marketing when the STAT study is released and that they NOT share this plan with anyone prior to implementation. Anyone interested in learning more about marketing strategy would enjoy reading "Marketing Warfare" by Al Ries and Jack Trout. I would not be surprised to learn Mike studied this book at Wharton as it details the strategic stages of how a small company can win against big competitors...even if they also read the book. But if the marketing was actually successful as has been said, then the competitors already know which territories they are because they get data from Symphony and IMS. They also undoubtedly get data on exactly how many times commercials get run by all competing products. True that MNKD shouldn't release plans for marketing before they are implemented, but providing more transparency to shareholders after the fact is a very different story as that exposes very little that the competitors would not already know.
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 11, 2018 16:50:52 GMT -5
I find my self mistaken. I thought what Was going to look at was a nasal delivery to the mucosa. This is a by mouth delivery, to? throat cells? I didn't see a chemical formula, nothing. difficult to say, what is being delivered, where. It's for absorption in lungs.
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 11, 2018 16:25:36 GMT -5
Looks like the shorts have calculated that MNKD will not get a substantial enough boost from script increases, the STAT study, and any partnerships to avoid more dilution. Therefore, they feel very safe in driving the share price even lower to increase the number of shares that will have to be issued in the next round of dilution so they can easily borrow more shares to short. This is a pattern we've seen played out many times over the years. MNKD management employs a minimum dilution strategy based on a series of assumptions that turn out to be optimistic when the share price drops more than expected and other positives take longer than expected or have less of an impact than they anticipated. The question here is whether Mike C has fallen into the same trap / pattern with the latest round of dilution. Will he actually see enough of an increase in script revenue, the STAT study, and partnerships to cause an increase in share price, or will the shorts be successful in holding down the share price to where even more shares need to be issued at a future date at an even lower price? What may be interesting is to ponder the following: 1. The STAT study isn't going to magically increase scripts overnight; we know that any change will likely take months to effect scripts 2. Partnerships aren't likely to include more than a month of two of operating cash Therefore, how does MNKD avoid another round of dramatically larger dilution post-June as the shorts successfully drive the share price down to half of what we had this time around? Thoughts? STAT doesn't bring in cash in any way. Scripts certainly aren't going up at a rate that will meaningfully cover the burn anytime this year. Given that burn is $90 to $100 million this year, even if there are some upfront payment for international deals there will still be a need for significant further raise of money using dilution. I would think longs as well as shorts would have calculated this. Wish I had a crystal ball to give you an answer on the direction of share price.
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 11, 2018 16:09:39 GMT -5
I don't know what the heck you are talking. 30 Mar 2018 Afrezza----519 $577k 277 $321k Apidra----6693 $5.16m 2499 $2.03m Novalog--137k $133m 56.3k $58.5m Humalog-155k $144m 60.8k $59.7m Humalin--37.9k $20.6m 14.8k $7.9m I'm aware of that. Mike, as I recall, said that they had taken 1% of the market in some "territories." How does one find out the sales of humalog/apidra/novolog in those specific territories. Without knowing those, how can anyone claim they've taken 1% of the market in any given territory? Regardless, I want the real numbers, not percentages. Also, I still cannot find the "The Diabetes Forum: Automated Insulin Delivery” report referred to in the slides -- does anyone recognize it or know where to get a copy? That data is available from Symphony and IMS. Apparently it is only the aggregate data for the entire country that is available via Bloomberg. For the rest one need go directly to the source and pay for the data.
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 10, 2018 19:54:37 GMT -5
Fair enough, baba, although I'm still in the green (173%) holding call options I bought dirt cheap back when many others were bailing. Sports has a pile of those, too, I believe. Although I will concede that I truly believed that my green contracts would be solid gold by now.
I tend to want to blame peppy for not warning me sooner about those chem-trails. I'm sure they must be affecting me, because I am now seeing all kinds of patterns in those technical charts of hers.
Are those $1 strike Jan 2019? That's what I bought a bunch of including some the day of our all time low. Coincidentally showing almost the same gain on mine despite being an average over 2 or three different batches of purchases.
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 10, 2018 18:15:00 GMT -5
Some of these countries could be ripe for the One Drop, Amazon and Afrezza subscription model if acceptable. It might be difficult to introduce a new business model but if so, it could help diabetics quickly. A subscription model does nothing to shorten the regulatory approval processes in countries, which is often the long pole.
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 10, 2018 17:51:16 GMT -5
I'm cold blooded, so I'm sure that's why I'm disliked. Queue Kermit singing "It's not easy being green".
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 10, 2018 17:45:52 GMT -5
Does selling a drug in China require a large sales force or are negotiations done with central authorities that also handle distribution throughout the country? I ask because it seems to me that Amphastar doesn't appear to have deep enough pockets for a large sales force. They do business in China, though, so they have connections already established. Not sure this answers your question but has some interesting info none the less. www.trade.gov/topmarkets/pdf/Pharmaceuticals_China.pdf
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 10, 2018 15:29:34 GMT -5
The Veterans Health Administration is an example of socialized medicine. There are pros and cons to the VA, but it is overall ineffective and unintentional burdens are put on veterans because of its dynamics. A perfect example is Person #1 is a combat disabled veteran with a felony that has a heroin addiction and wishes to enroll in an opioid abuse program for help. The veteran must spend hours on the phone and must fill out copious amounts of paperwork, and wait for weeks until hearing back from the VA to inform him that the nearest program is in the neighboring state 2 hours away. Now the veteran must obtain approval to leave the state by parole officer. Then, the veteran is made aware that he will have to make a 4 hour round trip to receive a once daily liquid dose of medication. The veteran realizes this is unrealistic and so remains addicted to heroin and received no realistic help despite begging for it. Person #2 has all the same issues as Person #1 except he lives in the state with the program and thus can realistically receive treatment for his addiction. That is socialized medicine. That is underfunded socialized medicine. It would be expected that Vets would have very expensive healthcare needs based on their service. The VA is not funded to that reality. Hence not having drug addiction services sufficiently prevalent geographically. Would a fully funded voucher system work better than fully funded VA? That I cannot say, but I'm pretty confident the level of funding the VA currently has would not provide adequate care to all vets if redirected to a voucher system for privatized services. Either way, more money would need to be spent to give the type of care our vets deserve.
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 10, 2018 15:21:18 GMT -5
There may be arguments to the contrary but not good, honest arguments. Opposing views on almost any subject can be found on the web, especially when it comes to politics. The U.S. medical market place today is definitely not free market. If it was you could buy health insurance across state lines. More importantly results would be coming from consumers versus insurance companies and bureaucrats. I'll now refrain from the politics on this subject but hat's off to Jeff Dachis for his willingness to speak up! If you think states shouldn't be allowed to regulate insurance, do you think they shouldn't license doctors? Truly free market, anyone could practice medicine and prescriptions wouldn't be required to purchase drugs. I have a chronic disease (thyroid) for which I am perfectly qualified to order lab tests, adjust my treatment plan and buy drugs myself without any need for doctors or insurance. However, I don't actually think a truly free market in medicine would be beneficial overall. I'm not a big fan of having insurance where my only recourse to complaints would be to a state regulator in a state where I am not a constituent. Why would the insurance commissioner in AL care about my concerns as a CA resident? Just seems odd to allow regulation to be done state by state but then force all states to open up their markets to insurance regulated in other states. If the regulation were done at the Federal level that would make more sense than cross state purchasing, since then the regulatory body would at least theoretically be controlled by citizens everywhere... but in this case I don't see why states shouldn't be allowed to experiment with regulations tailored to their own specific needs... i.e. states rights.
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 10, 2018 15:01:36 GMT -5
There well may be some deal for Mexico in the works, but having a trademark application is little indication of such. I've filed for foreign trademarks even when there were no active discussions with sales channels in those countries. I've forgotten the details given by IP attorneys, but I believe there are certain benefits to filing foreign applications within certain time period after US trademarking.
I would assume Mannkind has filed for trademarks not just in India and China, but quite widely around the world.
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 10, 2018 14:13:15 GMT -5
Unlikely it can be stopped, but the positive side of the double edged reality of twitter posts about Afrezza (i.e. very few patients or medical professionals see this stuff) is that his posts are likely to have no effect on success of Afrezza. I think it mostly the warring MNKD stock longs and shorts that are looking for #afrezza stuff on twitter. I realize it has no effect it on the stock, it hurts me for these people, their lives have enough stress! I hate to see it, I hate to see Sam harassed and the new people called liars ...they’re not familiar with shorts, they don’t know that it’s about the stock! Just hurts my heart. I also hate to see people called liars... I can almost imagine what that is like But agree that having patients trying to share their experiences (mostly great experiences, but even the occasional less than great) being attacked is pretty distasteful.
|
|