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Post by dreamboatcruise on Mar 2, 2018 12:02:19 GMT -5
Dr. Kendall is basically getting a lot of free chips at the casino, which you are not. If I could get free options, I'd bet all day long with him. I wouldn't even mind if the free options had a strike price of $5. Sometimes employee stock option plans allow exercise into restricted shares even before the vesting point (for tax purposes). If he did that and paid the $2.76, that would in my mind count as a real insider purchase. He has to pay 2.76 for the options when he wants to exercise them. They are not free. If it's such a great deal, you should be refinancing the house and buying at this price. He could be asking for salary instead of options. Now that would be getting paid. What are we doing as our job for Mannkind on a day to day basis? Bitching and moaning on a message board? No soup for you The options were free to him. If I wanted to buy at the money options for 2020 (shorter than his), I'd pay a hefty premium. He got at the money call options at no cost to him... something you and I would have to buy. Not bitching and moaning, employee incentive stock options are standard practice in biomed as in many other fields. Just correcting an earlier misconception that he is somehow risking something or has already purchased shares at $2.76. He was simply handed them because that would be part of a standard package for someone in his position in this sort of company. On the soup... no probs, I can make quite good soup for myself. Actually have some homemade in the fridge right now.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Mar 1, 2018 15:32:56 GMT -5
Dr. Kendall has about 10 years to exercise those options ... he definitely won't do it now. There are tax advantages to doing so, if one has confidence in the ultimate value of the shares, you'll stay with the company through vesting and have the cash available to do so... and assuming the plan even has provisions for pre-vested exercise to restricted shares.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Mar 1, 2018 15:14:54 GMT -5
$2.76 is the price of Dr. Kendall's stock options, right? I added significantly to my core position today at that price. I'm betting with David Kendall. Dr. Kendall is basically getting a lot of free chips at the casino, which you are not. If I could get free options, I'd bet all day long with him. I wouldn't even mind if the free options had a strike price of $5. Sometimes employee stock option plans allow exercise into restricted shares even before the vesting point (for tax purposes). If he did that and paid the $2.76, that would in my mind count as a real insider purchase.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Mar 1, 2018 15:10:25 GMT -5
One of the interesting things for me were the statements basically saying... they might cause auto-immune problems, or they might prevent them and they might exacerbate insulin resistance or they might mitigate it... and of course the unsaid "or they might do neither".
With something as complicated as human physiology (especially in areas as complex as endocrinology or immunology), often one can come up with theoretical mechanisms of action that might cause some particular result, but as this shows, there are often other theoretical mechanisms of action that might be just as plausible that could result in very different outcomes. Hence clinical trials in humans are the thing clinicians look for rather than merely well reasoned theoretical arguments.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Mar 1, 2018 14:51:43 GMT -5
That was a good interview. I am curious about the very last paragraph. "I absolutely see a need to bring that language into the conversation at MannKind, in talking to healthcare providers and working with our regulatory team, advocates and others. We'd love to include patient stories and examples in product information, and in what we share with healthcare providers." Is there really any chance they can put patient stories and examples (anecdotal clinical data?) in product information? Is this a realistic goal, or is it more like saying "We'd love to have world peace and the end of poverty".
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Mar 1, 2018 14:23:17 GMT -5
One important responsibility for him will be continued progress on the regulatory front with FDA. Patients only ever see what the FDA blesses.
I would also assume he'd go to ADA conference. Though he isn't presenting the STAT study results, he should be able to talk it up with endos that may stop by MNKD booth. From an FDA compliance standpoint it is my understanding that pharma sales reps don't/can't present info from scientific papers that isn't in the label, whereas a chief medical officer can do that doctor to doctor. I do wonder whether there would be other opportunities for him to directly communicate with clinicians. It doesn't seem like he'd fly all over the country doing informational dinners for doctors.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Mar 1, 2018 13:59:55 GMT -5
Can someone explain slide 21 of the presentation. It says "4x growth in new writers." I'm afraid I don't understand what that means. Why doesn't he simply state the number of writers before the commercials and then the number after? That would be a lot simpler. It might be that this is in comparison to the average of no advert territories... i.e. the average growth in writers in the advert targeted territories was 4x the growth in the non-advert ones. That said, based on the very slow growth in NRx over the months, I would expect that the growth numbers are very low in general. If the average growth in non-advert territories was 0.5 for the period, 4x would be 2.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Mar 1, 2018 2:05:06 GMT -5
I'm disappointed that MNKD has to resort to an ATM to raise money. To me an ATM is the source of last resort. And why announce it the day right after the CC? It's implying they think they'll need the money sooner than later. And why didn't they use their previous ATM to sell shares during the spike to $6? At the time I believe still had at least around 10 million outstanding shares available. AT the time volume was very heavy; moving 10 million shares would have been easy. they did. I think they said they got $4.80 average? $4.30? I am not going to dig it up. 10 million shares at $6. it is in one of the documents sla posted today. Slide 10 shows all of the use of shares for the past year. The only use of the ATM appears to be a very small sale in Q4... 0.2M shares raising a net of $0.5M. That would imply a share price of something just under $2.60 per share.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 28, 2018 18:47:43 GMT -5
And how many shares will be outstanding when we reach profitability... 150M, 180M, or more
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 28, 2018 18:36:58 GMT -5
One wild card for 2018 is how much MannKind will invest in direct-to-consumer (DTC) marketing of Afrezza. McCauley said that the early results from the company's TV ads in selected markets were encouraging. He noted that the regions where the TV ads aired experienced three times the growth in weekly prescription volume, four times the growth in new writers, and 13 times the growth in average weekly unique writers compared to other markets. It's still early, and more time will be required to analyze the DTC campaign, but it appears that Afrezza sales could be boosted by more advertising. At the end of the CC he seemed to indicate they wouldn't be spending as much money on commercials -- "I don't think you can expect us to spend that extra $5 million in Q1 on DTC we'll probably communicate and update if we decide to make that investment but at this point, we're not giving guidance on quarterly spent from a phasing perspective." To me that suggests he isn't to excited about the DTC results. Yes, that did confuse me a bit. If DTC really could generate the increases in script growth shown earlier in the presentation, it would seem they'd go ahead and do a PIPE or use the ATM and get some money to hit the TV airwaves. Imagine if the overall script numbers started reflecting that kind of growth with national advertising... the share price would undoubtedly surge. A little pain upfront to fund the ads seems like it would be worth it. I suspect there is something else playing into their decision.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 27, 2018 23:51:59 GMT -5
Hmmmm... am I mistaken or was nothing said about RLS this time?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 27, 2018 21:18:11 GMT -5
It should have been at the trading price on the day of award. There were some tech companies years ago that got into trouble for basically backdating employee options to a day when the share price was at a relative low. Thanks. I guess I was thinking these options were normally granted at out of the money strikes. To give the execs a reason to work hard. That certainly could be done, but I can't think of a single instance I've seen it in the tech industry. And when a small company isn't yet public, the value that they put on the stock, and thus the strike of employee options, is often ridiculously low... to maximize the benefit to the employees/execs once the company does go public.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 27, 2018 20:45:25 GMT -5
So he was awarded options already at or in the money. Nice deal. It should have been at the trading price on the day of award. There were some tech companies years ago that got into trouble for basically backdating employee options to a day when the share price was at a relative low.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 27, 2018 20:41:20 GMT -5
Dave will have to purchase the stock option at 2.76 to exercise it. The 500k goes to Mannkind and the difference goes to Dave. Hopefully the price will increase substantially and he will be rewarded If one has the choice, one never exercises an American call early (at least not if the stock is not paying a dividend). The optimal trade is to simply sell the call. Is Kendall allowed to sell? Assuming so, his options already have (according to a quick Black-Scholes-Merton calculation) a value of about $2 each. No, employee incentive stock options can't be sold in the open market. There can be tax reasons why an employee might wish to exercise the options and hold shares instead.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 27, 2018 20:15:47 GMT -5
No shares. I will buy in again when I see the writing in the way for the next financing. I expect to see 2.50!or as low as 2.00 in the next few weeks. Plus three day rule for going long if this tanks tomorrow. What's the rule... wait three days after a plunge to see if you've hit bottom yet?
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