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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 9, 2018 17:05:26 GMT -5
Not even 2 years. As long as it doesn't become a pattern it doesn't worry me much. First, was hired by previous management. Second, was hired by previous management. Third, see first point. Wasn't he reporting in to Mike when he was hired?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 9, 2018 17:04:08 GMT -5
I wouldn't count out possibility that MNKD will offer to convert at a discount to wherever the price is then trading even if in low $2s range. Nothing prevents them from doing that. Think the chance of getting back over $3.25 seems very small... and it would need to go over $3.25 for it to make sense for Deerfield to convert under the existing formula since they are likely to only wish to do so if their averaging formula works out to give them a guaranteed profit. In my opinion Deerfield has already started to open a short position and will take a delivery of stock. I don't think they'd start doing that without having already secured a deal to receive shares at a discount... but who knows, that could already be done. The price action doesn't seem to be indicating that level of shorting, however.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 9, 2018 16:59:46 GMT -5
Thought we'd see a larger dip in pps but, with all the good news coming out ... I had to rush to buy my daughter's ROTH shares and a few more for myself. Loss a few pennies because I was bottom fishing, but I guess it's the wrong time to try that. Anyway, the train is at the station and ... All aboard whose coming aboard! Next stop will be at $6 for baba. Ha! As it was, the dip was pretty painful... though you are correct, it could have been worse. Hope that all the potential negatives (lack of Jan formulary improvement, 2017 guidance, Deerfield resolution) are either baked in or resolve in a better than anticipated fashion. Looking forward to some concrete good news. How long have we been sitting at the station... must be a SF Muni train rather than a Swiss one. Would be nice if the train started moving in time for an important date I have Jan 19th this year... but I'm assuming we'll be well short of my stop/strike.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 9, 2018 16:30:36 GMT -5
I originally was going to post this on the thread about the sales and marketing individual who accepted a position at the other company but think it is more appropriate here. From what I understand there have been a fair amount that have come over from DEXCOM that are now in the sales and marketing area, what I was told is that they (the hires that came from DEXCOM) see MNKD the same as DEXCOM was 5 yrs. ago and know that this is the way the treatment will be heading. They are also very committed and understand the educational aspect of the new paradigm with physicians as well as patients. Now with the availability of the lesser expensive Libre which is much more conducive to real time monitoring for T2's it will help significantly with each T2 individual's situation ie., the differences in metabolism, other medications they are taking, etc. It isn't like there is a uniform dosing/titration that covers everyone, each T2 requires different regimens depending on where they are on the spectrum of disease progression...for example, Spiro only requires 4u at mealtime and a 4u correction dose when snacking and that is enough to keep him in range...I on the other hand require 8-12u at mealtime with a 4u correction dose depending on carbs at mealtime. I suspect this (lack of understanding by the physicians regarding same) along with the insurance issues were the biggest culprits regarding the drop off in refills. With the ability to constantly monitor this will help tremendously with the learning curve they will continue to go through with the shift towards real time management of the disease. I can definitely envision a joint marketing endeavor between MNKD and Abbott and/or DEXCOM at some point as it would be akin to the wireless carriers model with the various phones they market in packages IMO. A big contributor to Minimed winning the pump market was their focus on patients and education. Certainly see echos of that in MNKD now. Wouldn't have thought it would be as much of an uphill battle as creating an entirely new market for pumps, but glad to see/hear MNKD is hiring the right people. Think you are spot on regarding individualization of dosing, which is made more complicated by doctors' relative lack of experience with Afrezza. CGM's will certainly help. Hopefully supplying at least temporary use of CGMs will become much more common for T2s, where use is currently almost non existent. I don't quite see the part about joint marketing coming to reality. Would likely be great for MNKD, but I don't see the CGM manufacturers thinking picking sides regarding insulin is a good marketing strategy. I don't even think the cellular carriers would be doing the joint marketing with Apple if not for Apple paying the tab. Or computer manufacturers having done joint "Intel Inside" marketing if not for Intel footing the bill. Obviously MNKD can't throw money at large joint marketing advertising campaign. We might be able to afford the advertising to OneDrop users (does anyone doubt MNKD paid for that), but MNKD can't afford to help subsidies a big national push with the likes of Dexcom or Abbot.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 9, 2018 12:54:03 GMT -5
Not even 2 years. As long as it doesn't become a pattern it doesn't worry me much.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 9, 2018 2:48:17 GMT -5
Best case would probably be another delay of payment date. If they do take share they'll likely dump them in the market. Probably not much to be read into that about MNKD specifically, that just appears to be MO. The reason they hold MNKD debt now rather than equity is that they want certainty of smaller return rather than potential/risk of larger return on equity... just their business model. Well, first, the stock has to get to at least $3.25, if it doesn't get there, they won't be exchanging the Note for stock, then, as has been said, best is to hope for an extension. If not, then they "capture" our ten million dollars! I wouldn't count out possibility that MNKD will offer to convert at a discount to wherever the price is then trading even if in low $2s range. Nothing prevents them from doing that. Think the chance of getting back over $3.25 seems very small... and it would need to go over $3.25 for it to make sense for Deerfield to convert under the existing formula since they are likely to only wish to do so if their averaging formula works out to give them a guaranteed profit.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 9, 2018 0:08:35 GMT -5
Would be nice, though I've already mentally written my Jan options off. Those I've held for a long time. I can't fathom why last year I bought some May 2018 when I could have gone longer. I fear those two will expire worthless. With MNKD I think there are two options strategies... very short term on some upcoming event or multiyear leaps. Good thing that you only bought "two" just in case they "too" expire worthless. I am "too" careful2invest "to" play the options game. GLTA! If only Fortunately, I have far more Jan 2019 than the 2018s.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 9, 2018 0:02:24 GMT -5
Deerfield will end up with more MNKD shares. I think the best we can hope for is them not being used Short... Best case would probably be another delay of payment date. If they do take share they'll likely dump them in the market. Probably not much to be read into that about MNKD specifically, that just appears to be MO. The reason they hold MNKD debt now rather than equity is that they want certainty of smaller return rather than potential/risk of larger return on equity... just their business model.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 8, 2018 23:53:45 GMT -5
Here's to hoping the share price shoots up before the 19th! Stranger things have happened with this stock. Would be nice, though I've already mentally written my Jan options off. Those I've held for a long time. I can't fathom why last year I bought some May 2018 when I could have gone longer. I fear those two will expire worthless. With MNKD I think there are two options strategies... very short term on some upcoming event or multiyear leaps.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 8, 2018 21:10:06 GMT -5
This has to be settled in one week. I hope to wake-up to news of a partnership with upfront $ prior to next Monday. I think you're much more likely to wake up to news of another debt for equity swap at a discount. I wouldn't even think MNKD would want to be in the closing portion of a deal negotiation with the perception that they might be "needing" to get it done by a particular date. That's not a good negotiating position.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 8, 2018 16:59:20 GMT -5
Speaking of Locust Walk, has management given an indication as to how long the engagement of Locust Walk is/was to be? I was initially thinking that it might have been a closed end engagement resulting in some sort of bidding process for pipeline assets, but after the PIPE I'm suspecting that to not be the case. I can't recall any indication from management as to a timeline for their work.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 8, 2018 16:27:04 GMT -5
joeypotsandpans... so in other words, WF is giving $1B market cap value to PAH treatment. That would be about $7 per share for MNKD at current issued share count. Even if one assumed a "worst case" amount of dilution, it alone would likely exceed the current share price of MNKD. I'm making the assumption (that I don't know would be true) here that the market potential for MNKDs trep is equivalent to what ARNA is working on.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 8, 2018 16:12:51 GMT -5
joeypotsandpans... would be interesting to know of your Afrezza supportive doc, what percent of patients needing to have prandial added to their treatment is he now prescribing Afrezza? Is it basically all that have insurance coverage? Is he switching some patients already on RAA to Afrezza?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 8, 2018 11:57:49 GMT -5
Absolutely ridiculous and unnecessary fear mongering. Patent expiration is the least of our worries. So what should we be worried about? Looking out to 2032? I'd worry as much about something that looks more like a cure for diabetes... rejuvenating or implanting beta cells perhaps, stopping the immune system attack for T1s. Short term it's the financing. If all goes well MNKD can likely navigate with dilutive funding, but always risk that outside forces (such as a market crash) could throw a spanner in the works. Insurance coverage is something I assume is high on the concern list for management. Or simply don't worry at all. If you've placed your bet and intend to stick with current position no matter what, then worrying in general would seem counter productive.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 8, 2018 11:23:33 GMT -5
Interesting that they don't seem to be going after patients who might choose to pay out of pocket as OneDrop is. I wonder how many health plans they have agreements with and whether some plans are choosing to offer multiple options of these types of services such as Livingo and Onduo. That doesn't seem likely to me, so I'd think it will be a race between these companies to get insurers on board. If some like Aetna and Cigna ( agedhippie) already have the coaching component, are they likely to keep it in house or outsource to one of these providers.
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