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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 21, 2017 13:36:38 GMT -5
My guess is that Datsun made money on each car it sold even if they were relatively inexpensive cars. And they also were probably profitable in Japan so they could afford to lose money for a period of time in the USA until they got established. Nissan was part of a keiretsu conglomerate which included a large bank, so credit would have flowed freely if needed as well.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 21, 2017 0:50:44 GMT -5
I get that im a new poster, so take this for a grain of salt. But this move by Mike is 100% crap and I was peeved enough to make an account here. It's like he didn't have the foresight to realize there would be fallout after doubling the A/S with no concrete announcement to support it - so he's buying a puny amount of shares to calm the masses. I don't see a filing showing that this is a prescheduled purchase and based on his prior purchase history I don't have much confidence that this was scheduled. Too little too late, get a clue. Shouldn't have doubled the A/S without ANYTHING to follow up. You're going to be one of the quickest to get on the black list of those of us that the lynch mobs are trying to run out of town for saying unacceptable things. You can't criticize the authorization size. The PC line is that it is was the greatest thing since sliced bread, and the bigger the better.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 20, 2017 23:33:26 GMT -5
Whatever it is it would seem Mike, having spent his career doing this, would likely know. Matt from here on PB did once post that the way the deals are done to get preferred coverage would make it hard to be able to lower price enough to counter what the PBM would lose if they missed their target volumes... i.e. MNKD could give it to PBMs and it might still be in their monetary interest to minimize or prevent its use, at least while Afrezza is still only being prescribed by a very limited number of doctors. Hope I'm not misrepresenting what he said. Apply grain of salt. I would certainly defer to those that have worked in the industry, as it's hard to know what goes on behind the scenes unless one has been there. I have investment in another small pharma company. Its drug was approved in the same time frame as Afrezza. The drug is also in a crowded category just like Afrezza. It achieved 90% unrestricted coverage a year ago. There must be a way to crack the code. Do the FDA trials used for approval show that it has clinical superiority compared to the competitors? Also bear in mind that Sanofi probably wasn't even trying to achieve better formulary placement for most of the time they had Afrezza, so you might want to compare where this other company was 18 months ago to be a fair comparison.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 20, 2017 19:12:38 GMT -5
You were giving away a time limited demo or the full product? Mike is already giving away demos of Afrezza via vouchers. It doesn't have to be so dramatic. If Afrezza is priced 30% below competitors' products, he should be able to lock down deals quickly. Whatever it is it would seem Mike, having spent his career doing this, would likely know. Matt from here on PB did once post that the way the deals are done to get preferred coverage would make it hard to be able to lower price enough to counter what the PBM would lose if they missed their target volumes... i.e. MNKD could give it to PBMs and it might still be in their monetary interest to minimize or prevent its use, at least while Afrezza is still only being prescribed by a very limited number of doctors. Hope I'm not misrepresenting what he said. Apply grain of salt. I would certainly defer to those that have worked in the industry, as it's hard to know what goes on behind the scenes unless one has been there.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 20, 2017 17:28:09 GMT -5
As much as I have been and am bullish on MNKD, it seems to be that wall street has decided that the label change was meaningless. Therefore, the share price will now descend back towards $1 or lower where it resided prior to the label change. Essentially, the rise in share price was predicated on an increase in scripts that hasn't been as dramatic as it needed to be to substantiate the price. MNKD management is probably celebrating the holidays and won't do anything until a few weeks into the new year. Won't they be surprised to find that all those extra shares they got approved on next to worthless--again. All of this is very annoying. Horrible timing on the Board of Directors and Mike C's part to schedule the vote just before the holidays if they weren't sure they could follow through with something positive. They created the perfect set up for the shorts to destroy them yet again. As long as they don't need to use those shares for anything that's dependent on the current share price, this is all meaningless--just wait until the good news hits. OTOH, letting the share price drop back to $1 or lower needlessly reduced their options. Sigh... Other than giving incentive options to employees, anything they do with the shares will be dependent on the then current share price.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 20, 2017 17:25:14 GMT -5
As much as I have been and am bullish on MNKD, it seems to be that wall street has decided that the label change was meaningless. Therefore, the share price will now descend back towards $1 or lower where it resided prior to the label change. Essentially, the rise in share price was predicated on an increase in scripts that hasn't been as dramatic as it needed to be to substantiate the price. MNKD management is probably celebrating the holidays and won't do anything until a few weeks into the new year. Won't they be surprised to find that all those extra shares they got approved on next to worthless--again. All of this is very annoying. Horrible timing on the Board of Directors and Mike C's part to schedule the vote just before the holidays if they weren't sure they could follow through with something positive. They created the perfect set up for the shorts to destroy them yet again. As long as they don't need to use those shares for anything that's dependent on the current share price, this is all meaningless--just wait until the good news hits. OTOH, letting the share price drop back to $1 or lower needlessly reduced their options. Sigh... I'm beginning to suspect that at this point, even news of a substantial partnership to sell Afrezza in the U.S. may see a temporary boost in share price that won't really be sustainable - just as had been observed with the recent announcement of the improved label change. What will reliably sustain an increased share price is actual sales/scripts growth, which could be preceded by, e.g., favorable results of the STAT study and improved insurance coverage. If it were a deal with a suitable big fish pharma and had substantial upfront payment, I think it would have very positive effect on share price. However, I don't think there is any such deal available to MNKD. Management seems to be indicating that they are still planning on going it alone when it comes to marketing. They have talked about potentially working with a company that has underutilized sales staff to target PCPs, but that likely that isn't the sort of deal that would have any upfront payment or illicit much positive investor sentiment since the other company making their underutilized sales staff available in exchange for payments from MNKD wouldn't be an indication of solid confidence Afrezza will become a blockbuster.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 20, 2017 17:16:04 GMT -5
That's nice to see. If I'm reading this right it was an outright purchase in the open market. Not huge, but still sends a message.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 20, 2017 17:09:27 GMT -5
The thing is, a One Drop A+ subscription would bundle One Drop Premium support services with (X) amount of Afrezza/month, to go along with the test strips. I don't think anything else makes sense for One Drop. And it won't be cheap, but it would be cheaper than retail Afrezza. This way insurance companies will keep paying the same price, while One Drop customers paying out of their own pocket get a discount. Bonus: It would come with a wealth of usage *and* result data that One Drop could be contracted to share with MNKD. This is complete speculation! I think that the One Drop trial will need to finish before we hear anything else on that front though. Just a thought, but could another reason why the change to the new revenue recognition model be tied to the one drop partnership and selling direct to patients? Would make sense to book all of your revenue to direct customers like wholesalers if you are selling Afrezza direct. No, there really isn't any connection between those two. I think you should take management at their word when they said that they are making the switch because they now have enough data to satisfy the accountants that they can estimate returns. Switching will simply bring revenue forward which will boost recognized revenue in coming quarters as the channel is filled. Any company in MNKD's position would want the optics of higher revenues.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 20, 2017 15:44:00 GMT -5
Slow bleed this time of year is folks harvesting losses and gains. I suspect that 1/2/2018 we see upwards momentum. No, no it isn't, not at all. All of us retail holders put together could not accomplish this hideously powerful plunge even if we colluded. Only Wall Street can do this - on Good news yet. This is blatant, manipulative violent price dropping to scare Longs out of their shares. The next BIG event is January 18 or so when we find out whether or not Deerfield buys 4 million shares a price of $3.25 per share. Seems unlikely we get back up to $3.25. I suspect MNKD will want to conserve cash and thus will offer Deerfield a new deal similar to how they handled it last time... i.e. a discount to where shares are then trading, allowing Deerfield to short and lock in the discount as profit if they choose. Only question is how low of a share price does that get done at. Isn't going to look nice, but then shelling out cash would look bad as well. Of course best case is simply a delay in repayment. Perhaps there is some combination of cash and delay.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 20, 2017 15:15:25 GMT -5
Easier view of Slide 18.
I'm surprised Mike has stalled on his list. He had been hitting it like clockwork. It looked to be a check list he was hitting in chronological order ending with the IND filing for Trepostinil which sounded like it would happend in q1 2018. My expectation was to hear more about the bullet points in this quarter which hasnt happened.
Int'l expansion announcements. We had the BIOMM update but nothing more.
RLS - Mike C said back in Sept "There’s a Receptor Life Sciences collaboration, which we haven’t talked about much in the 18 months. It was announced in January 2016. We’ll have some updates on that collaboration, that’s focused on the cannabinoid market. And so we’ll be talking about that in near future" No update.
One Drop - Mike referred to the subscrition model & there was much to address on the legal front. I give them a pass on this delay. It is a unique concept.
Expansion of payor coverage - Mike C said they were ready to sign with a large PBM in Jan 18. No announcement. Is it happening or not? A pr would be nice.
STAT Trial - Mike C "Our STAT trial, which is really looking at Afrezza plus Dexcom will be – we’ll get those results in late fall and they’ll be presented next year"
Ok so the expectation is that we wouldnt hear about this until 2018 along with the IND. The way the list was framed the other items were to be q4 catalysts. No catalysts = the drubbing the share price is taking. It sure is disappointing. I'm still a believer. It's day and night going into 2018 from where the company was going in to 2017.
Sure would like to see some progress on these fronts.
GLTA
With One Drop, we do know that there has been some marketing activity for Afrezza targeted at One Drop's customer base. I have a feeling that the subscription model may be something that just doesn't make sense in the context of rules around Medicare and Medicaid cost reimbursements... i.e. MNKD couldn't make it cheap enough to be viable for many as out of pocket without slashing the amount of money they could then get from government health programs, and likely commercial insurance as well.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 20, 2017 14:38:01 GMT -5
.02. If I were Mike and knew opening up investors to more dilution would take a hit in sp, I think I'd take all my lumps at once ... At the end of the year, after I just pulled in some $ from a squeezy run-up,when I'm getting hit for missing my targets, and when tax loss selling is going to happen anyway. Then those investors who are disillusioned can benefit from maximizing their loss on paper against other gains. Those of us who can't benefit/take a loss, or want to stay in, are going to be riding it in any case though this effectively (for investor vs. trader), brief and minor dip. Let's be realistic - we're at what, $2.99/share at moment? Not .99 again. This way, Mike C and the MNKD team starts the year clean with the bandaid already ripped off. Hope it is the entire bandaid..... Only problem with that reasoning is that there are feedback loops or spirals that can take hold. The lower the share price, the harder the hit from dilution in order to raise a given amount of cash. The more dilution expected the lower the price goes. Authorizing that many shares may have a self fulfilling effect, driving the price down and thus assuring more shares are necessary. This is especially true in the absence of any concrete info from management about when profitability can be expected (and indicating an expectation is only wise if they really have the visibility to achieve the guidance).
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 20, 2017 14:22:07 GMT -5
Is it possible that allowing the share price to depreciate would somehow work in MNKD's favor? For example, by allowing short interest to accumulate further, would a short squeeze boost share price to a higher level than if the share price prior to the squeeze was higher? This is just one possible explanation. I'm curious as to how this will play out and I'm wondering what sort of strategy is being employed. The 140M authorized shares is, in my mind, a big wild card, so anything can happen. It may seem paradoxical, but perhaps under some circumstances, a depressed share price might actually be strength for the company. Are there historical examples of such cases? No, having lower share price is never good for a company.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 20, 2017 5:51:46 GMT -5
Back to the original question of this thread: I have PCS, sometimes mistaken for OCD. Positive Change Syndrome. Happily holding a long position in MannKind stock is a conclusive indicator. PCS is a very relaxing syndrome , easy to live with. Incontrovertible optimists, we look for conclusive evidence only on the positive side of things. Yes, we understand that life is utterly unpredictable, but we simply don’t let potential negatives ever distract us from enjoying potential positives. It's a devastating syndrome for any investor, of course. We should not be allowed near a brokerage account. But once in the bluest of moons the rarest of products comes along, one that perfectly suits someone with PCS: it must work perfectly; be way out in front of competition; be 100% owned by one company; have a solid manufacturing infrastructure; have a huge market; be a repetitive purchase for the consumer; and have excellent management. Of course it helps too if it will make the world a better place. So naturally I am 100% invested in MannKind. And even though I am down more than 80% over three years, I spend no time worrying about financing, insurance, marketing, alliances and cash flow because I wholeheartedly believe that millions of diabetics throughout the world soon will be leading happier lives as dedicated Afrezza users. That's a good situation to be in as an investor... though, personally I do worry. I sure hope MNKD management and the BoD are worrying as well... someone with more control than I needs to be.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 19, 2017 20:33:37 GMT -5
Mike can fix the insurance problem real fast. All he has to do is cut the price of a 90ct box to $50, no insurance needed. The way AOL made the market back in the day was to give away CDs at $0 at a zillion stores. I did the same with a software product which was fully NITF 2.0 certified which I was selling to government agencies. I was shut out of every Government contract and finally got on a schedule but had no sales. I made demo CDs and left them at all the target agencies and gave it away for the price of an email. I will warn Mike doing such a thing can really piss some people off. You were giving away a time limited demo or the full product? Mike is already giving away demos of Afrezza via vouchers.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 19, 2017 20:25:29 GMT -5
Here is what I believe in a nutshell. I believe that Al Mann thought that people would flock to Afrezza because they could avoid needles and because it is a much better insulin. I also believe that he thought he could create a myriad of products based on the Technosphere delivery system (embarrassment of riches anyone?) Chris Viehbacher bought into that story but was dumped by Sanofi and along came Olivier Brandicourt who didn't buy it at all. He dropped Mannkind like a hot potato. We moved out our finance based CEO for a marketing CEO with the notion of going it alone and this is where we are today. Unfortunately the marketing guy hasn't been able to move needle much on sales despite the "in-house" sales force. We are treading water at best. Good luck to all. When Al started the development of Afrezza things were very different regarding insurance coverage. PBMs are putting far more restrictions on prescriptions than used to exist. Also, due to the delays in FDA approval, Afrezza is hitting at a time where from a business perspective PBMs will be comparing it against the prospect of cheaper biosimilar RAAs. And... medical groups and clinics have become more restrictive about contact from sales reps making them less effective in general. Times have simply changed and for the worse for a small drug company trying to fight its way into a market with entrenched competitors. The marketing guy did a pretty good job of the PIPE financing (despite the share price volatility giving dyspepsia to some of us), but the reality is that for the current "difficult" environment MNKD is still significantly underfunded. It may be that revenue growth is simply linked in a proportional manner to the amount of money spent on advertising... potentially no way around that even with the best marketing guy.
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