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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 19, 2017 20:10:57 GMT -5
thekindaguyiyam... I guess I was somewhat misreading your original post, assuming you were linking your buying as potentially being somewhat less than rational. My apologies, I shouldn't assume to know that about someone else. We both agree there is large potential in Afrezza & MNKD as well as risk of loss involved. For me personally, my averaging down in the past was unwise, if not a full blown disorder. It flew in the face of anything I've read or been advised about investing. I had invested a certain amount of money based on my portfolio situation and my recognition of both the potential rewards and risk. Then, as I lost money, I started feeling compelled to put in more so as to hopefully make up the losses faster. The long term potential for Afrezza hadn't changed, nor had the risk of needing funding... it was just me repeatedly deciding to risk more, sort of like the gambler doubling down in Vegas... until I found myself having invested too much of my portfolio in MNKD. Even if we eventually turn around, I'm going through a period of my life where I'm not living as well as I might have otherwise... and with the painful situation of having much of my losses in non taxable retirement accounts and now if I do have gains they will be in a taxable account.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 19, 2017 18:10:11 GMT -5
Even with all of us together focused on this one topic I often feel alone within my own circles because I am the only one. I can completely relate:-) And know that you are not alone. I spent a half hour today on the phone with a mankind long telling him how I was going to double down if we got to a certain PPS. We talked about the catalysts coming up, we talked about how long it was taking. The pro’s and con’s. About why were compelled to talk about this every day! Lol Definitely OCD:-) But... I feel in 6 months we will be climbing, flying on air. Praising management, and grateful we hung in there! For me I'm thinking more like 9 to 12 at this point. But of course making predictions is very difficult, especially about the future. I'm hoping you're right.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 19, 2017 17:08:49 GMT -5
The averaging down disorder is one that bites many investors, not just in this stock. It can be hard to try to be rational when one has become so emotionally attached to an investment. I can relate, but I also try to be careful not to act on every impulse to try to average down. I'm waiting for something that looks like a stable bottom and even then I may chose to do another option straddle to hedge the bet. To me it seems like one warning sign is if you really are using wishful thinking "hidden cards" to justify buys (no, I don't have any inside information, but the notion of hidden cards is simply a wish at this point with no evidence). As for an investing thesis, potential "hidden cards" cannot be disproven for any company, and yet certainly there are many that will turn out to be bad investments... more often than not hidden aces aren't there. Though your choice of the word "rationalizing" might indicate you realize it's your emotional mind playing tricks on you. I've done a lot of MNKD rationalizing myself over the years. That Afrezza is a clinically important advancement in diabetes care... that's something that gives me confidence to hold long term and perhaps even make some additional strategic purchases (though not now). I think the risk of bankruptcy is significantly diminished, but there is still the big question of how much more dilution we'll have. Once that can more easily be predicted may be the perfect time to consider if the analytical lines up with the emotional. DBC Most of what we know is just the top of the iceberg. We know what we know but have no way of understanding what's on the Management's table. To think there is nothing there and just speculation is like saying that there are no other planets in the universe with life (which is far more speculative to me; though I can not prove that life exists somewhere else). In as much as you are here posting on this board as a contrarian; I must conclude that you too are OCD if you acknowledge it or not, otherwise we wouldn't get the quantity of your thoughts that you are so generous with. As for me; Yes I have been averaging down significantly. I see (long term) that there is nowhere to go but UP from here. True that none of us knows everything that management does. But to me going for long periods of time thinking that there is something great that management hasn't yet revealed is purely emotional. From a rationale perspective one would have to ask, if there were some deal there on the table for Mike to pick up, why in the heck has he not already done it. Afrezza sales are really suffering from lack of funding to have full coverage national sales rep team and national advertising. Of course if one is trying to rationalize then there is something to plug that hole in the story... oh, Mike's setting a trap for the shorts, or necessary to hide things from BP, or fill in the blank. And yes, there very possibly are other planets with life... but would you consider it an investment to place a bet that one will be discovered in time to fund your retirement. And if we do pick up a signal from life in the universe it will likely be from such a distant point in the past that the civilization producing it may well already be extinct... sort of like when we finally got confirmation of the UAE deal [snap, oh no he didn't] Perhaps I am OCD. I do watch the daily up and down of MNKD share price way more than any other investment I've ever had. I am now back to working as a business consultant and doing so from home. So I think part of my posting is having my brain underutilized at the moment, and discussion boards giving the illusion of human interaction. Perhaps I should start playing online chess. It seems like my views really aren't contrary to yours if you are talking about the long term prospects of MNKD and that your "no where but up" does not apply to short term. I do feel even under worst case dilution that the current share price is undervaluing the company. It seems we are only debating merits of a trading strategy such as when to be averaging down, though emotions do for many drive buying and selling decisions. [Addendum: If you have a certain amount more money that you plan to invest in MNKD and have a strategy of spreading it out over time so as to not worry about trying to catch a bottom, that may be a good strategy (It's one Nate has advocated). It's not having an amount of money in mind and constantly feeling compelled to devote more money every time we see price go down that I think is when the unhealthy aspect of OCD trading is kicking in.]
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 19, 2017 16:20:06 GMT -5
The averaging down disorder is one that bites many investors, not just in this stock. It can be hard to try to be rational when one has become so emotionally attached to an investment. I can relate, but I also try to be careful not to act on every impulse to try to average down. I'm waiting for something that looks like a stable bottom and even then I may chose to do another option straddle to hedge the bet.
To me it seems like one warning sign is if you really are using wishful thinking "hidden cards" to justify buys (no, I don't have any inside information, but the notion of hidden cards is simply a wish at this point with no evidence). As for an investing thesis, potential "hidden cards" cannot be disproven for any company, and yet certainly there are many that will turn out to be bad investments... more often than not hidden aces aren't there. Though your choice of the word "rationalizing" might indicate you realize it's your emotional mind playing tricks on you. I've done a lot of MNKD rationalizing myself over the years.
That Afrezza is a clinically important advancement in diabetes care... that's something that gives me confidence to hold long term and perhaps even make some additional strategic purchases (though not now). I think the risk of bankruptcy is significantly diminished, but there is still the big question of how much more dilution we'll have. Once that can more easily be predicted may be the perfect time to consider if the analytical lines up with the emotional.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 19, 2017 15:28:52 GMT -5
I think Mike covered what he is working on in the coming quarters very well. I also think the short players are counting on the February CC to apply their end game and I'll tell you why. They have been hammering this idea that we might not make the low end of guidance for the 2nd half of 2017. We should be good on that front, but it won't matter. In Q4 of 2016, we got a lot of money from Sanofi that was reported as income. Now, when the QOQ numbers show we are so much worse than last year, the shorts will pick up the megaphones and start shouting from the rooftops that Mannkind is done. "...Loses More Than Expected......blah, blah, blah." RIP MNKD has already been used so they will have to come up with another way to phrase it. How much they can push it down by then is anybody's guess. Keep your powder dry so to speak and watch for a bottom as has been suggested here already. Me, I sold 1000 shares last week to buy an English Bulldog Puppy. Even if we got bought out tomorrow, it has been the best money I've ever spent. Don't forget to look around and smell the roses while you wait on Mannkind. Patience cannot be stressed enough. Shorts have it in spades. Never heard of that one... is the ticker EBP? You think that will be a buy and hold?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 19, 2017 14:24:05 GMT -5
In the MF interview Mike did lay the cards on the table by saying if you’re horizon is 3-6 months then this may not be the stock for you. I took that to mean don’t expect any big material changes in that timeframe. I sold my shares to protect my profits (got in around 2.10/share) shortly after and am waiting for a new bottom to stabilize before buying back in. IMO cheerleading and promoting without improving fundamentals will do nothing to ward off the shorts. I’m still bullish but there is time to sit on the sidelines before a run happens.I agree Mike's comment was important. That said, the last run-up came without any advance notice whatsoever. The biggest announcements of 2017 came without advance notice. The next run-up and announcements will likely also appear suddenly. The turn-around has begun. It would be extremely disappointing to miss the big one thinking there was time left. GL We did have the advanced foreshadowing/notice of two analysts (competing for PIPE business) making bullish calls on MNKD. Additionally, we may be headed right back to where we were before the run up, so that's not a great example to make someone fear missing a run up. Missing a temporary run up because of not yet buying is no different than missing the run up by not selling and having all those paper gains disappear. The magnitude of the run up did surprise me, but in the end we can see it was illusory run up. It may be much easier to see when we're on a solid trajectory of gains... the type that could last for years.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 19, 2017 14:05:50 GMT -5
I'll grogg a slug to thee... bartender, bartender! [that's the toast at the end of the night]
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 19, 2017 13:50:12 GMT -5
In the MF interview Mike did lay the cards on the table by saying if you’re horizon is 3-6 months then this may not be the stock for you. I took that to mean don’t expect any big material changes in that timeframe. I sold my shares to protect my profits (got in around 2.10/share) shortly after and am waiting for a new bottom to stabilize before buying back in. IMO cheerleading and promoting without improving fundamentals will do nothing to ward off the shorts. I’m still bullish but there is time to sit on the sidelines before a run happens. At times I do wish I had the wisdom (or luck of good timing) to trade my position like that rather than buy and hold as I have (and at times buy calls and have them expire worthless). It seems we are not to have any market moving news regarding insurance coverage or clinical trials in that 3-6 month time frame. If we get another international partner it may not move the needle any more than the Brazil deal did. Maybe something happens sooner than 6 months but I think a good chance we'll spend it slowly building on the Afrezza revenue gains. As for the basic question of the thread. Laying the cards on the table is only as good as what is delivered. Will we make guidance, for instance? And there is a possibility that all the cards really are on the table. Yes, Mike has hinted at things that might happen such as the Cantor slide, but I think that was in the context of trying to generate a hopeful attitude to run the price up for the PIPE. What if "laying cards on the table" were telling investors that while they are always looking for partners for Afrezza and pipeline, there is nothing pending. I know many here firmly believe Mike is holding a hand full of aces but it may be he is working on a 6 high straight but is still missing the 4.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 18, 2017 19:45:14 GMT -5
Nate Pile and Michael Kovacocy are big picture guys who are positive about Mannkind's future and don't really worry so much about the pps today and the low level fluctuations that are occurring. Spencer Osborne and LFD seem to be more focused on past history and every fluctuation that occurs. Their supporters seem to be traders more than investors and sure enough, they currently own the bragging rights. The tide can change very quickly though. In early 2018 we'll learn which, in hindsight, had the better vision...IMHOIsn't there a third possibility, which is that we get through early 2018 with further slow increase in scripts, some dilution from Deerfield debt and share price neither cratered nor spiked... leaving it still unclear whose "vision" will eventually prevail? I assume you aren't someone that will give up on your vision of MNKD even if nothing astounding happens early in 2018. I wouldn't. It seems like we've all been hoping that clarity is right around the corner for many years now. My thinking is that meaningful change in insurance coverage will be necessary to really turn the tide, and it appears that this isn't happening in early 2018.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 18, 2017 17:16:34 GMT -5
There is a huge difference between Michael K., Nate, and Spencer! Michael K and Nate make their living in the market. Spencer is just a paid SA author and makes his living doing something else. ( The big-time shorts and the little time shorts follow him. Otherwise Michael K wouldn’t even acknowledge him.) Nate and Michael have seen this play out hundreds of times before in the biotech industry. They are in a better position to know. Someone did get Spencer to say that the stock could go down to $2 or spike to $5:-) Nate has always seemed authentic. I wouldn't put this Michael guy in the same category. He comes across as someone trying to manipulate price. Though if he really believed most of what he has been spinning, I wouldn't view that as a positive as that would indicate he's out of touch with reality.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 18, 2017 16:59:00 GMT -5
Hard to say but I'm guessing there are more shorts piling in as a result of the newly increased share count and expected dilution which is why you're seeing the sell off. Sales need to be better for sure. Would you might explaining your rational? What are shorts piling in? Let's assume for a second that they are not naked short. Either they own shares or they borrow them. But the shared that are authorised are not there jet.whst are they piling and why does the price go down due to that. Sure they can sell their shares but then they need to buy calls, right? It's simply an issue of anticipated dilution. No one can know how things will play out concerning the amount of dilution, but given MNKD's history of dilution (and the fact that the journey towards profitability is still crawling along) shorts "may" be emboldened to take the risk of shorting with anticipation that dilution will drive the price down, as at the end of the day it is earnings per share that will drive price and more shares (if they are issued) will ultimately result in less earnings per share. I can also say that it has put me back on the sidelines as a long investor. Even if all the authorized shares are eventually issued, I think the current price is undervaluing the company, but we're in a period now where investor expectations are being adjusted down again. That process needs to run its course before price stabilizes. I'll continue to hold what I have, but no new buying for the time being.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 18, 2017 16:39:50 GMT -5
It never ceases to amaze me how some view honest opinion as negative. Let's take a moment and recall the definition of "forum". fo·rum ˈfôrəm/ noun noun: forum; plural noun: forums; plural noun: fora
1. a place, meeting, or medium where ideas and views on a particular issue can be exchanged.
I see nothing in that definition that indicates views must meet a consistent standard established by a portion of members. I quite frankly, appreciate all opinions. None are good or bad, just................opinions. I would also like to wish everyone here a very Merry Christmas and also a very prosperous New Year! Personally I prefer facts to opinions. The statement January has not been kind to us in the past is not wholly true. It’s misleading. The last trading day of December 2016 MNKD closed at $3.125. The last trading day of January 2017 MNKD closed at $3.52, up over 12.5% for the month. My most sincere wishes for a warm and healthy holiday season go out to all who truly want MNKD to be greatly successful. Sorry, was assuming people would know what I was referring to, but some may not remember. Jan was when two pretty nasty jolts have hit in the past. 2011 was a CRL (I had a bunch of options expire worthless that year), and of course Sanofi dropped Afrezza in Jan 2016. There were many Januaries that didn't involve drama, and of course the comment was a bit tongue in cheek given that timing of past events isn't going to effect the future. The real issues would be the things we know about that may affect share price in the coming couple of months... what happens if guidance is missed and what happens when we come to payment date in Jan for Deerfield debt if we're below the conversion price floor.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 18, 2017 15:45:46 GMT -5
I think this decline has to be looked at in the context of the run up to the PIPE. Not saying it was a bad move, but there was quite a bit of hype, smoke and mirrors that helped drive the price up in order to do the PIPE at a rather surprisingly high mark. Especially with doubling the potential share count, reality is now setting in that it is likely still a long slog before we're out of the woods.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 16, 2017 17:31:31 GMT -5
I would assume that a key aspect of the business proposition is that a biosimilar is treated like a generic. Sanofi wouldn't have to convince doctors to write scripts for their version, it could simply be swapped for Humalog at the pharmacy level and if they strike deals for better placement on a formulary a patient would get to the pharmacy and be told "you can pay $50 for Humalog or get this equivalent one for $20". At least I think this is how biosimilars are treated.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 16, 2017 17:16:54 GMT -5
Well, whats becoming clearer and clearer as testing is getting better is more and more T2s also test positive for autoimmune. We now call them LADAs. I suspect if we tested all T2s early enough and had tests sensitive enough most T2s lost pancreatic function because of an infection which affected the beta cells. All diabetics share the same issue, they are not making enough insulin for their body's needs and all diabetics have the inability in their current condition to regenerate enough beta cells to over come their insulin shortage. Then the question is, is the attack active or not. If it is not an active attack and the beta cells are not too badly damaged we can regenerate beta cells naturally by keeping the PWD in a non-diabetic range. LADA is Type 1. It is (or was) not uncommon for someone to be initially misdiagnosed as T2 when in reality they were all along a LADA T1. As for T2, it seems there are multiple factors that can set someone down the path to becoming T2. Being overweight does lead to insulin resistance even before beta cell function starts to decline. There also seems to be a genetic factor involved for some people where they are predisposed to have beta cell function decline. It's not inconceivable that infections could play a role though I have not seen any research pointing in that direction. Some autoimmune diseases, such as the one I have, are suspected as potentially having a link to an infection confusing the immune system. I'm don't know if that is suspected for T1 diabetes.
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