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Post by spiro on Mar 23, 2014 18:29:12 GMT -5
Thanks Brentie, it's tough being the most optimistic guy around. It's hard to refute logic and facts and this guy hasn't even included the potential revenue from Afrezza sales replacing the Alzheimer's linked Metformin in type 2's and potential new deals with technosphere. IMO, one thing is certain, should MNKD get a good label for both type 1 and type 2, MNKD will be taken out by a major pharma company soon after approval. Piss ant companies simply do not take mega drugs to the market. $50 a share sounds nice to me, but I am not sure Al would take so little.
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Post by spiro on Mar 23, 2014 11:33:09 GMT -5
I think Rak's reply should be disqualified because of it's deliberate and successful attempt to confuse the old folks on this board.
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Post by spiro on Mar 23, 2014 9:32:09 GMT -5
The title of this thread should have been, Who Can Be The Most Pessimistic. Ok, boys, I will play too. Even though this is MNKD's 3rd try after apparently a last second change of mind by the FDA on the 2nd attempt, I give MNKD only a 20% chance of approval with type 1's. Let's forget the fact that the FDA also gave MNKD the opportunity to include type 2's in the 3rd submission and it clearly met all of it's important endpoints. I will only give type 2 a 6.321% chance of approval. Because the share price is only $5.87, I think the chance that both type 1 and type 2 getting approval is only 3.459 %. Now, if anyone truly believes that the chances of type 1 approval is 50% or less, they need to immediately get out of MNKD, particularly if you are sitting on an overall profit. I would agree with Rak's numbers if the AdCom votes against Afrezza. Rak may be suffering from Elderberry poisoning. If the AdCom votes in favor of approval, I will project a 95% chance of type 1 approval and an 80% chance of type 2 approval. The facts certainly support this outcome. Seriously, you guys need to read this again. www.beyondproxy.com/mannkind-corporation/Spiro here, in an all out OPTIMISTIC mood.
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Post by spiro on Mar 21, 2014 18:00:37 GMT -5
Damn, you guys are good to spot my blocks of 40, 8 and 19 shares.
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Post by spiro on Mar 21, 2014 15:13:34 GMT -5
MannKind Corporation NLS Time (ET) NLS Price NLS Share Volume 16:00:04 $ 5.87 165,619 16:00:04 $ 5.87 5,369 16:00:04 $ 5.87 623 16:00:04 $ 5.87 2,000 16:00:04 $ 5.87 90 16:00:04 $ 5.87 2,182 16:00:04 $ 5.87 3,313 16:00:04 $ 5.87 274,741 16:00:04 $ 5.87 47,059 16:00:04 $ 5.87 500 16:00:04 $ 5.87 1,038 16:00:04 $ 5.87 102 16:00:04 $ 5.87 3,435 16:00:04 $ 5.87 12,168 16:00:04 $ 5.87 25,413 16:00:04 $ 5.87 239 16:00:04 $ 5.87 17,400 16:00:04 $ 5.87 124 16:00:04 $ 5.87 200 16:00:04 $ 5.87 38,094 16:00:04 $ 5.87 2,000 16:00:04 $ 5.87 8,900 16:00:04 $ 5.87 40 16:00:04 $ 5.87 8 16:00:04 $ 5.87 19 16:00:04 $ 5.87 5,439 16:00:04 $ 5.87 86,808 16:00:04 $ 5.87 18,530 16:00:04 $ 5.87 107 16:00:04 $ 5.87 3,000 16:00:04 $ 5.87 3,622 16:00:04 $ 5.87 39,533 16:00:04 $ 5.87 165,800 16:00:04 $ 5.87 165,800 16:00:00 $ 5.87 1,099,315 15:59:59 $ 5.86 800 15:59:59 $ 5.86 1,500 15:59:59 $ 5.86 200 15:59:59 $ 5.86 400 15:59:59 $ 5.86 131 15:59:59 $ 5.86 624 15:59:59 $ 5.86 500 15:59:59 $ 5.86 500 15:59:59 $ 5.86 1,000 15:59:59 $ 5.86 345 15:59:59 $ 5.86 400 15:59:59 $ 5.86 900 15:59:59 $ 5.86 609 15:59:59 $ 5.86 150 15:59:58 $ 5.87 100 Read more: www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkd/time-sales#ixzz2wd77lEb3
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Post by spiro on Mar 20, 2014 21:10:28 GMT -5
My bet is with Stevieray. But I will be even more naive and say that I wouldn't be surprised if the AdCom votes overwhelming in favor of Afrezza, the FDA approves Afrezza even before April 15. Lately, the FDA seems to be meeting there deadlines.
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Post by spiro on Mar 20, 2014 13:24:43 GMT -5
There are a lot of wise people posting on this board. I would love for Rak to be right. It could be the best possible outcome for the longs willing to hold for a few years, after taking some profit.
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Post by spiro on Mar 20, 2014 9:53:39 GMT -5
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Post by spiro on Mar 19, 2014 12:22:22 GMT -5
The only thing that I am 100 % certain with is that MNKD will be be going to the AdCom with an overwhelming amount of evidence and FACTS to support approval. I am confident that they will be well prepared and present an outstanding case to support FDA approval. I believe that MNKD's executive team will be the vicinity, but not presenting. The presentation will be done by MNKD scientists and others. I need to find out if I should double my heart medication or maybe just check into the ER that day.
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Post by spiro on Mar 19, 2014 11:10:50 GMT -5
Well, today's action should help out everyone's investor fatigue. BTW this is just the first small wave of a lot more to come. Kathleen's first tsunamis wave will not come until after the adcom meeting. So, do you think the shorts are feeling a little squeezed today? Where are they going to get shares to sell to stop this rally. this sure looks like a perfect storm is developing now. If we hold on to this gain, shorts will have to feed the squeeze at close today and make huge deposits or transfers.
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Post by spiro on Mar 19, 2014 8:07:01 GMT -5
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Post by spiro on Mar 18, 2014 12:50:06 GMT -5
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Post by spiro on Mar 18, 2014 8:50:11 GMT -5
Babaoriley, I have come to the conclusion that you have the most severe case of investor fatigue on this board. i am quite relaxed now after drinking my early morning Ouzo and then my late morning Ouzo. As for the AdCom, the evidence is so overwhelming in Afrezza's favor, the average high school debate team could get a win on this one.
Spiro
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Post by spiro on Mar 17, 2014 11:19:55 GMT -5
StevieRay, this Herman guy is obviously another Boogeyman. Boogeymen don't know that Afrezza, by lowering the number of severe hypoglycemic events, will save countless numbers of lives each year. OK, maybe the FDA doesn't care about saving lives, we will soon know.
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Post by spiro on Mar 16, 2014 12:07:46 GMT -5
I am not sure I agree with this being a game of chicken. Most longs aren't playing that game with the shorts. The stakes are much higher for the shorts. Most of the remaining longs are probably pretty strong holders at this point, hence the lower volume. Sure some of us will sell a little into a rally, but it will probably take some shorts covering to precipitate a strong enough price increase for us to sell. I believe the weaker hands have probably cleared out by now. I still believe that enough shorts will drop out of this game of Russian roulette they are playing, with 5 bullets in the chamber, to cause a nice little rally within the next 2 weeks. Yes indeed, interesting days are ahead.
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