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Post by spiro on Sept 6, 2013 9:24:51 GMT -5
This was a meaningless survey with huge margin of error. Dang, I used to think p values were important. This survey would have a margin of error somewhere around 12 %. www.sciencebuddies.org/science-fair-projects/project_ideas/Soc_participants.shtmlThe table below shows this estimate of the margin of error for sample sizes ranging from 10 to 10,000. (For more advanced students with an interest in statistics, the Creative Research Systems website (Creative Research Systems, 2003) has a more exact formula, along with a sample size calculator that you can use. For most purposes, though, the 1/√N approach is sufficient.) sample size (N) margin of error (fraction) margin of error (percentage) 10 0.316 31.6 20 0.224 22.4 50 0.141 14.1 100 0.100 10.0 200 0.071 7.1 500 0.045 4.5 1000 0.032 3.2 2000 0.022 2.2 5000 0.014 1.4 10000 0.010 1.0 You can quickly see from the table that results from a survey with only 10 random participants are not reliable. The margin of error in this case is roughly 32%. This means that if you found, for example, that 6 out of your 10 participants (60%) had a fear of heights, then the actual proportion of the population with a fear of heights could vary by ±32%. In other words, the actual proportion could be as low as 28% (60 - 32) and as high as 92% (60 + 32). With a range that large, your small survey isn't saying much. If you increase the sample size to 100 people, your margin of error falls to 10%. Now if 60% of the participants reported a fear of heights, there would be a 95% probability that between 50 and 70% of the total population have a fear of heights. Now you're getting somewhere. If you want to narrow the margin of error to ±5%, you have to survey 500 randomly-selected participants. The bottom line is, you need to survey a lot of people before you can start having any confidence in your results.
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Post by spiro on Sept 6, 2013 9:02:54 GMT -5
This survey smells very fishy to me. I wonder if the doctors were even shown all of the highlights of the type 2 study. Or were they told, BTW Exubera failed and Afrezza might cause a slight cough, therefore , you probably will not use it, right? Let's face it, potential partners will do their own legitimate surveys, to determine if their sales force can make Afrezza a winner.
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Post by spiro on Aug 29, 2013 12:04:24 GMT -5
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Post by spiro on Aug 29, 2013 8:50:34 GMT -5
Stevie, Thanks for correcting the $3 million payment. If this article is accurate describing treatment with injectable insulin, I am positive overworked and now underpaid primary care doctors will love Afrezza. Not only for it's benefits, but also it's ease of use by their patients. care.diabetesjournals.org/content/27/suppl_1/s106.full
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Post by spiro on Aug 28, 2013 22:01:28 GMT -5
Rak,
Al's hand is stronger this time because it now will probably include the type 2's. But I do think, he will keep his bet down a bit to secure the right partner. But, I do not think the potential partner will take a chance and try to bluff Al this time. Al doesn't have to bluff. I believe that there are probably 4 to 6 players in this high stakes game. One thing is certain, Al will pick who wins the hand. I still can't get by the fact that Pfizer gave Al $10 billion in insulin for $2.5 million. Because of that, I think Pfizer may be a player in the game. It's going to be interesting to see who Al gives the bracelet to. For a second there I almost forgot what we were talking about. BTW, I can't wait until more doctors find out that according to Scripps, Metformin may be linked to Alzheimer's. disease. I am sure the drug reps will find a way to get that info to doctors. Stay tuned, the fun begins soon.
Spiro
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Post by spiro on Aug 28, 2013 17:47:52 GMT -5
Very soon, when a doctor has a diabetic patient who needs to be on insulin to control his disease, the doctor will at least have another choice. Tell the patient use inject insulin and then provide the patient with all the necessary instructions to manage insulin injections. or start the patient on Afrezza before meals. Can you imagine how many fewer phone calls the doctor will receive each week from their patients on Afrezza as compared to the ones started on injectable insulin. It will not be hard to convince doctors to try Afrezza. This article is two years old, but is still an interesting read. www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/01/us-diabetes-control-idUSTRE7206Z120110301
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Post by spiro on Aug 28, 2013 10:52:54 GMT -5
Piccolopete,
I am not sure you understand that there is an enormous need for more effective diabetes treatment, particularly in type 2 's. Afrezza will give doctors a new medication that they can easily convince a patient to use, instead of starting insulin injections. Also the early use of Afrezza could provide extended efficiency for the pancreas. This early intervention also gives MNKD and partner a huge opportunity in the worldwide market. The worldwide revenue potential for an easy to use medication like Afrezza is enormous. Here is a question for you to ponder. What would the $500 million dollar order from China or India do to the share price? IMO, it will come soon after approval. I would stop worrying about market cap and start focusing on future earnings. They are going to be Fast and Furious.
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Post by spiro on Aug 27, 2013 18:52:55 GMT -5
piccolopete,
Hmm, you say $13 with no partner, wow, now that's optimistic. Because of the enormous worldwide market potential for Afrezza, I believe a major pharma company will step forward and take a chance on partnering with MNKD. It's as simple as, throw $2 billion or so MNKD's way for a chance to be in on a POTENTIAL mega drug. or spend $5 million and 10-12 years time to develop a new drug which may even have less assurance of getting FDA approval. I believe most major companies would believe they have the marketing skills to make Afrezza a huge winner. If I'm right about Afrezza's potential, the marketing partner will know they have chosen wisely in less than 2 years after FDA approval. I am not good at predicting prices, but it could be a lot more than $13 after FDA approval.
Spiro
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Post by spiro on Aug 27, 2013 9:56:28 GMT -5
Thanks for your input Rak. My stomach is finally settling down a little. Bumpy rides can do a lot of damage.
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Post by spiro on Aug 23, 2013 14:07:19 GMT -5
liane,
I agree with Stevieray, an ignore button would be useful. I personally do not want to have to filter through the messages of some posters on this board, especially Douge and now this pp guy. Is there an ignore button?
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Post by spiro on Aug 20, 2013 21:35:15 GMT -5
With the cost of developing a new drug now estimated to be over $5 billion, I believe the latest results are good enough for MNKD to get a legitimate offer from a major drug company. It's not rocket science. invest say $ 2-3 billion in a partnership with MNKD and within 3 years, that company will have a good idea of success or failure. I would not be surprised if Pfizer is in the mix, remember the $10 billion in insulin they sold MNKD for only $2.5 million. Or did Pfizer just give it to MNKD because they love Al so much. I would have burned it, before giving it away so cheap. www.forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2013/08/11/how-the-staggering-cost-of-inventing-new-drugs-is-shaping-the-future-of-medicine/
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Post by spiro on Aug 19, 2013 14:36:18 GMT -5
John,
If you believe your interpretation of studies 009 and 171 are correct, it makes no sense for you to be long MNKD. Not that it matters to you, but I personally doubt your sincerity in this discussion. It seems to me your spin on the results has a hidden agenda. I also do not think you have been successful in your attack on the overwhelming supportive data that should result Afrezza's FDA approval.
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Post by spiro on Aug 18, 2013 9:25:47 GMT -5
OPC,
Great post and thanks for the outstanding rebuttal. It is my belief that potential partners will be impressed by the latest results. Hopefully, the long awaited partnership or buyout is now a real possibility. Because of the enormous potential worldwide market for Afrezza, I think the data is strong enough to get MNKD several substantial offers for a partnership. I haven't posted on any board since the last CRL. i like the format of this board.
Spiro
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