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Post by compound26 on Jan 26, 2016 14:54:03 GMT -5
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Post by compound26 on Jan 23, 2016 15:01:24 GMT -5
Some interesting comments from Alan Brody regarding marketing of Afrezza: Why Sanofi failed with Afrezza: Let's assume Sanofi did not start out with bad faith but they quickly ran into a wall when they talked about "inhalable" insulin. Doctors have become highly paranoid about lung infusion. But, instead of changing their tactics Sanofi kept doing more of the same but less intelligently. They should have been selling the amazing patient experience. Put it this way, a hammer is worth $10 but a beautifully made house that needed a hammer is worth a million. The best way to understand how to market around a prejudice is to go back to the tobacco industry in the 1950s when they faced the first cancer scare. The Sanofis of the time talked about how their cigarettes didn't make you cough such (Old Gold "not a cough in carload" or Camel doesn't make your throat tickle. Then they got a little smarter and found that four out of five doctors preferred Camel "take the T(hroat) test". The really smart company - the big winner - was Philip Morris which side stepped all of that by bringing out the Marlboro Man and Marlboro Country - never once mentioning the product just the experience in their successful years (they too, struggled at the beginning when they talked smoke). That's why they are the number one brand across the world above all other products. Game over. Read my book "Cigarette Seduction". I am not just a pundit here - I am an investor. Sadly, I thought every smart marketer understood this issue. God only knows how wrong I was. If all of these elements are true and they can stay liquid until they kick in, then then the upside potential is immense. There is no question that Sanofi gave it the minimum effort, failed to introduce it as a companion Toujeo and hobbled it with ads that failed to mention it's Unique Selling Proposition ("Surprise It's Insulin" was intended to ANYTHING OTHER than that, and looked like a perty favor). ___________________________________________________________________________ In reality this is a disruptive product that needs unique marketing such as a full Social Media campaign with Insulin challenges, famous name stories and user meetups and so on. Any Social Media professional knows this path but they haven't mentioned it. Ideally a top new Media agency run by an Afrezza user would be the way to go. It is way too important to be left to an intern or Matt getting the hang of Twitter. Also, t hey need a vivid form of PR in a way that captures the world's imagination such as donating a supply to Syrian refugees or to the poor in Haiti. There are many wealthy and famous people who would be inspired by this.While Endos are famously conservative they still need a Sam Finta-type (afrezzauser - a leading independent advocate) with an MD. Any one of these specific issues - along with those mentioned in this thoughtful article - could be massive game changers. Finally, the company has to understand the key element in modern marketing - you don't sell the tool you sell the breakthrough experience. It is not about inhalable insulin it is about making a diabetic's life feel normal again. It is liberation and salvation and user reports make this stunningly clear. The moment they mention inhalable those 4 out 5 doctors who once smoked Camel start freaking about the lungs....and I don't know.... Lungs hate tar not medicine. People have been gaping for over 10 years and there is not a single credit le report of lung malfunction. So this is a new medical prejudice. (Read my separate posting about how the tobacco industry especially Philip Morris dealt with this at the height of the first cancer scare -it is HIGHLY instructive. I know, I wrote a book about it called "Cigarette Seduction".) ___________________________________________________________________________ First, apologies for the typos I'm doing this on a cell phone between meetings. The vids are quality work and they sure need this. Having said that, a true Social Media campaign is something quite different. You need to aggregate videos from real patients showing what a day of dining with Apidra looks like vs Afrezza. They have to Instgram this. You need contests and hooplah. You need real live people to show what a business lunch looks like between the two. You need to bring two patients to the Fancy food Festival and show what the needle patient CAN'T eat vs. what the Afrezza patient CAN eat.
And they need to make it clear what the Old World did wrong and how they are going to show cutting edge New World Marketing. You read more of Alan's comments on this subject at: seekingalpha.com/user/26647063/commentsSome additional comments from Alan Brody: Having consulted for pharmacy companies in the past, I am well aware of the myriad regulations. Having said that I am also aware of some of their workarounds. In the case of Social Media, the really good campaigns are not owned by the company. They are a spontaneous groundswell of the user base. The issue is what is the acceptable cultivation of this base. The story is already there. It just has to be a looked to step out. Insofar the as the messaging is concerned, most of the terms the supporters love such as "inhalable" "breathe" and lungs are trigger words that have reverse effect on the medical community. So, whatever the regulations are, there are plenty of mental impediments to be managed. seekingalpha.com/user/26647063/comments |
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Post by compound26 on Jan 22, 2016 23:15:50 GMT -5
Some interesting comments from Alan Brody regarding marketing of Afrezza: Why Sanofi failed with Afrezza: Let's assume Sanofi did not start out with bad faith but they quickly ran into a wall when they talked about "inhalable" insulin. Doctors have become highly paranoid about lung infusion. But, instead of changing their tactics Sanofi kept doing more of the same but less intelligently. They should have been selling the amazing patient experience. Put it this way, a hammer is worth $10 but a beautifully made house that needed a hammer is worth a million. The best way to understand how to market around a prejudice is to go back to the tobacco industry in the 1950s when they faced the first cancer scare. The Sanofis of the time talked about how their cigarettes didn't make you cough such (Old Gold "not a cough in carload" or Camel doesn't make your throat tickle. Then they got a little smarter and found that four out of five doctors preferred Camel "take the T(hroat) test". The really smart company - the big winner - was Philip Morris which side stepped all of that by bringing out the Marlboro Man and Marlboro Country - never once mentioning the product just the experience in their successful years (they too, struggled at the beginning when they talked smoke). That's why they are the number one brand across the world above all other products. Game over. Read my book "Cigarette Seduction". I am not just a pundit here - I am an investor. Sadly, I thought every smart marketer understood this issue. God only knows how wrong I was. If all of these elements are true and they can stay liquid until they kick in, then then the upside potential is immense. There is no question that Sanofi gave it the minimum effort, failed to introduce it as a companion Toujeo and hobbled it with ads that failed to mention it's Unique Selling Proposition ("Surprise It's Insulin" was intended to ANYTHING OTHER than that, and looked like a perty favor). ___________________________________________________________________________ In reality this is a disruptive product that needs unique marketing such as a full Social Media campaign with Insulin challenges, famous name stories and user meetups and so on. Any Social Media professional knows this path but they haven't mentioned it. Ideally a top new Media agency run by an Afrezza user would be the way to go. It is way too important to be left to an intern or Matt getting the hang of Twitter. Also, t hey need a vivid form of PR in a way that captures the world's imagination such as donating a supply to Syrian refugees or to the poor in Haiti. There are many wealthy and famous people who would be inspired by this.While Endos are famously conservative they still need a Sam Finta-type (afrezzauser - a leading independent advocate) with an MD. Any one of these specific issues - along with those mentioned in this thoughtful article - could be massive game changers. Finally, the company has to understand the key element in modern marketing - you don't sell the tool you sell the breakthrough experience. It is not about inhalable insulin it is about making a diabetic's life feel normal again. It is liberation and salvation and user reports make this stunningly clear. The moment they mention inhalable those 4 out 5 doctors who once smoked Camel start freaking about the lungs....and I don't know.... Lungs hate tar not medicine. People have been gaping for over 10 years and there is not a single credit le report of lung malfunction. So this is a new medical prejudice. (Read my separate posting about how the tobacco industry especially Philip Morris dealt with this at the height of the first cancer scare -it is HIGHLY instructive. I know, I wrote a book about it called "Cigarette Seduction".) ___________________________________________________________________________ First, apologies for the typos I'm doing this on a cell phone between meetings. The vids are quality work and they sure need this. Having said that, a true Social Media campaign is something quite different. You need to aggregate videos from real patients showing what a day of dining with Apidra looks like vs Afrezza. They have to Instgram this. You need contests and hooplah. You need real live people to show what a business lunch looks like between the two. You need to bring two patients to the Fancy food Festival and show what the needle patient CAN'T eat vs. what the Afrezza patient CAN eat.
And they need to make it clear what the Old World did wrong and how they are going to show cutting edge New World Marketing. You read more of Alan's comments on this subject at: seekingalpha.com/user/26647063/comments |
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Post by compound26 on Jan 21, 2016 16:40:54 GMT -5
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Post by compound26 on Jan 21, 2016 14:27:45 GMT -5
Also glad to see several tweets from Mannkind today clarifying on the licensing agreement. There is some improvement in transparency. Matt is not just saying it.
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Post by compound26 on Jan 21, 2016 13:47:22 GMT -5
Do the existing doctors need more direct contact and confirmation from Mannkind regarding Mannkind's commitment to support Afrezza long term?
We know that Matt has stated that in the JPM presentation, but that probably is not sufficient. The doctors may not know the details of the transition. All they know maybe that Sanofi is dropping Afrezza.
As the Sanofi Afrezza reps quietly disappearing into the background, and with Afrezza samples run out, I believe physiologically it would help a lot if each of the existing Afrezza prescribing doctor receives a letter, a package of Afrezza samples, a call and/or a personal visit from a Mannkind rep describing in details the transition process and reassuring them of Mannkind's commitment to support Afrezza long term.
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Post by compound26 on Jan 21, 2016 13:37:24 GMT -5
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Post by compound26 on Jan 21, 2016 13:18:25 GMT -5
delisting isn't a risk for quite a while. Used to be at least 6 months below 1/share and then the company would get a warning letter that they are heading toward delisting. That buys a few more months and can be in that state for a while. I haven't researched this in years and the rules may have changed. The larger concern first is their cash position followed by increasing sales. I would put delisting pretty far down the list of risks at this point. I agree de-listing not near the top of the risk map. Speaking of which, what are the top 3 risks? Anyone? My top 3 are: 1) Failure to drive a robust transition execution - Communication to avoid attrition of Docs and Patients giving up on the future of Afrezza. No more SNY market cap support and news travels fast2) Not getting ahead of the solvency issues to get beyond a 6-12 mth BK risk - dragging out deal negotiations more than 3 months 3) No immediate formation and execution of a sales and marketing strategy for Afrezza. Agree those are real risks. On point one what are the best ways to provide comfort to the existing prescribing doctors? A letter from Mannkind confirming Mannkind's commitment and Matt's personal commitment (as the CEO) to keep Afrezza on the market for the long term? Followed by a phone call from Mannkind communicating the same? Followed by a visit of a rep from Mannkind reconfirming the same, with plenty of samples of Afrezza (maybe this is too expensive for Mannkind to do now or maybe not)? What are your thoughts? |
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Post by compound26 on Jan 21, 2016 11:37:47 GMT -5
mnholdem Agree. This seems to be a reasonable interpretation. "We are pleased that Receptor Life Sciences has selected our formulation and delivery technology to advance its portfolio of innovative inhaled products," said Matthew Pfeffer, Chief Executive Officer of MannKind. "This collaboration demonstrates the fundamental value of our platform technology while the risk-sharing structure of the transaction allows us to diversify our product opportunities without losing focus on our lead program.
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Post by compound26 on Jan 21, 2016 11:20:42 GMT -5
Amazing! I also thought of Chris Veihbacher when I read the announcement... regardless, let's hope (I'm not afraid to use that word) that whoever is behind our new partner is a visionary with lots of financial muscle. That's also my first thought on reading the announcement as that seems to fit what Chris Veihbacher is doing now. |
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Post by compound26 on Jan 21, 2016 11:13:49 GMT -5
I think what Matt said in the JPM presentation sheds some light on the terms of this license agreement (and probably some other future licensing agreements). seekingalpha.com/article/3809206-mannkinds-mnkd-ceo-matt-pfeffer-presents-at-34th-annual-jpmorgan-healthcare-conference-transcript?part=single"So clearly the Technosphere pipeline is something that's important to us. It’s going to be important from a licensing standpoint. This is probably not huge upfront dollars, but I think and in fact I think, if that were very close to when I or I think my predecessor promised me we have in this quarter. I actually thought we have one today. That didn’t happen, but I think it will happen soon to have the first one to announce. But there will be more of these and these are things that could actually yield some short term cash and not huge upfront dollars, but some of the milestones are quite near term and could make a big difference for us to show that the technology is sustainable. There is interest in it and there is lot of places we can use it. That’s something relatively new for us because what we've been focusing on heretofore has been our own products based on this technology because that’s really what are most profitable in the long run, but we can also be opportunistic with these licensing opportunities and I think you’ll see more emphasis on that in the future. That said, as I said before I was going to take that opportunity of having right here to talk about just briefly, just I think I'll give you three or four minutes Ray to briefly talk about some things that are going on in the pipeline because we can be a lot more specific on what we’re doing and I think there are some really interesting things in it." P.S., when I heard the above on the JPM call, I was wondering perhaps there would be little or no upfront fee for the first T.S. partnership. That turns out to be the case. We will need to see the details of the agreement to see if " some of the milestones are quite near term". Also, per the statement that " there will be more of these", we will wait to see if there are other licensing agreements in the work. |
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Post by compound26 on Jan 20, 2016 12:12:32 GMT -5
I emailed him on 11 January (two days before the JPM Investors conference) and he did reply within the same day.
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Post by compound26 on Jan 19, 2016 13:59:50 GMT -5
Matt was announced as CEO as of 11th Jan. So he has been CEO basically for one week. Since he already did the JPM presentation on 13 Jan., it is reasonable that the company does not have or announce any news within a few days of such presentation. It is also expected that Mannkind is all over the place working on executing or fleshing out some of the plans Matt discussed in the JPM presentation. I recall Matt mentioned that he may do a conference call with investors before the next quarterly conference call.
I expect the next conference call to be sometime around 10 Feb. Since Matt made the JPM presentation on 13 Jan. and the next quarterly conference will be around 10 Feb., it appears likely that, if Matt does do a conference call before the next quarterly conference, such a call will be scheduled around the end of Jan. My guess is that 29 Jan. (Friday, which is 10 days from today) maybe the date for such a call. If Matt does hold such a call, he may be able to announce a TS deal or other news on such conference call. If not, we will hear some news by the next quarterly conference call (around 10 Feb.), which is three weeks from today. Yearend conference calls tend to be fairly late. If memory serves, Matt said q4 cc would be towards the end of February. Not a big deal but trying to keep time line reasonably accurate so we don't start to get anxious when earlier call doesn't happen as soon as some might expect. Greg. You are right. Last year's year-end conference call was on 24 Feb. In that case, assuming this year's year-end conference call will also be held around 24 Feb., about 5 weeks from today, the in-between investor conference call may be scheduled at around 5 Feb., a little bit less than 3 weeks from today. |
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Post by compound26 on Jan 19, 2016 13:12:33 GMT -5
Matt was announced as CEO as of 11th Jan. So he has been CEO basically for one week.
Since he already did the JPM presentation on 13 Jan., it is reasonable that the company does not have or announce any news within a few days of such presentation. It is also expected that Mannkind is all over the place working on executing or fleshing out some of the plans Matt discussed in the JPM presentation.
I recall Matt mentioned that he may do a conference call with investors before the next quarterly conference call.
I expect the next conference call to be sometime around 10 Feb.
Since Matt made the JPM presentation on 13 Jan. and the next quarterly conference will be around 10 Feb., it appears likely that, if Matt does do a conference call before the next quarterly conference, such a call will be scheduled around the end of Jan.
My guess is that 29 Jan. (Friday, which is 10 days from today) maybe the date for such a call. If Matt does hold such a call, he may be able to announce a TS deal or other news on such conference call.
If not, we will hear some news by the next quarterly conference call (around 10 Feb.), which is three weeks from today.
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Post by compound26 on Jan 15, 2016 11:30:37 GMT -5
"With an estimated $60 million in cash, the company has enough money to operate into the second quarter." I think Matt said a couple of times already that Mannkind has sufficient cash to support its operations "well into the second half of the year (2016)", so this second quarter must be a misquote by the author and needs to be corrected. I just sent the author an email regarding this. Fyi, I received the following email from the author of this article: Thanks for your email. And you’re absolutely correct about Matt having said well into the second half of the year. I’ll make the changes online. I’m happy you enjoyed the story! I’m sure there are a lot of people in our community impacted by their operations. |
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