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Post by compound26 on Oct 2, 2018 16:26:27 GMT -5
Thank you Compound! So much appreciated:-)) And for all your hard work over the years! Your mindset your optimism and for being just overall genuinely a happy person! Thanks! @sportsrancho. Same to you! Like some members saying that they are addicted to buying shares, I think I might be addicted to listening to these presentations and conference calls. They are very informative.
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Post by compound26 on Oct 2, 2018 16:04:22 GMT -5
A few quick takeaways from Mike’s presentation after listening to it. 1. Mannkind is working with a third party to get Afrezza classified as " ultra-acting" (i.e., its own class); 2. Mannkind will receive another $30 million milestone (plus low double digits royalties) on the second drug they are currently partnering with UT; 3. For Tre-T, Mannkind will receive $25 million milestone in 2019 and another $25 million milestone in 2020. 4. Tre-T’s target market is the whole market (inhale, oral and IV) and potentially “ best in class”. 5. Recapitalization is now complete. There will be no major debt due in the next 36 months. 6. Mannkind has prioritized another four drug candidates that will be further developed in the next 12-18 months. Mike also mentioned something about a (drug) launch every one or two years as a goal towards the end of the presentation. 7. One-drop trial results will be available “ shortly”. 8. Since Mannkind signed contracts with two major PBMs in 2018, they are now working to get local coverage and remove prior-authorizations with respect to these PBMs. 9. For Afrezza, there has been consistent growth since Mannkind launch (Jan. 2017) in numbers of writers (600 to 1100), market share (among Afrezza writers from 3.2% to 4.2%) and cartridge units. 10. Note that, since Mannkind has partnered with UT for two Technosphere drug candidates, in the slide listing the five year growth drivers for the company, Mannkind has added Technosphere Platform as the foundation of the growth drivers. It appears the trial results of Tre-T were really a boost of confidence to Mannkind in their belief of the Technosphere Platform’s potential. Mike referred to the reveal of the trial results as a “flip of the cards” (and the cards turn out to be very favorable).
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Post by compound26 on Sept 24, 2018 15:14:39 GMT -5
My take is that he found out SO at some point and read SO's articles and found them to be gospels, or at least the best thing since the invention of sliced cheese. You all see that SO does not get along with this board.
Joking aside, there are quite a few disheartened long time longs that have left the board forever. JPG and DBC are two examples.
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Post by compound26 on Sept 11, 2018 16:24:24 GMT -5
MNKD Nasdaq real time volume, 2,780,750 shares. MNKD Nasdaq summary volume, 4,744,116 shares. MNKD $1.80 -0.17. -8.63% www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkddisappointing price action. Hopefully the floor. Normal consolidation of the breakout move, the 50 and 100 will turn up and head towards the 200 (feel like that poster who had the handle "I see the future" lol)...the UTHR put is in place, dips are solid buys, seen this movie many a time with other equities...EXAS is the one that comes to mind in the Feb '16 to May '16 timeframe, they gave you a gift in May '16 when it retested the lows, then there was one more shot at end of Dec '16 before it was lights out for the kiddies joeypotsandpans Am thinking about EXAS these days as well. EXAS currently has a market cap of around $9B. There is nothing there to prevent Mannkind from attaining a similar market cap once the real move starts. That is a 40-50 pps depending on the number of outstanding shares we have at that point of time.
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Post by compound26 on Sept 5, 2018 11:28:54 GMT -5
So now that the SP is above $2.38, anyone have thoughts or info on the warrant status? MannKind (NASDAQ:MNKD) investors this past week saw the news that the company is doing a stock offering to raise a bit over $26 million in cash. The deal involves 14 million shares, which prices the stock at just $2.00 per share. Included with the offering are warrants to purchase another 14 million shares at a price of $2.38 per share during a narrow window of time between October 11th of this year and April 10th of 2019.seekingalpha.com/article/4161653-mannkind-raises-26_7-million-stock-offering-enough
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Post by compound26 on Sept 4, 2018 15:48:52 GMT -5
Great observation! This means the low double digits royalty income will start kicking in shortly after the drug is on the market. That will be great. Thanks. So what does low double digits mean? Double digits is anywhere from 10 to 99. Low is likely between 10 and 30. Wouldn't they say "low teens" royalty if it was in the teens? Also, what's the timeline for starting to sell product? Your guess probably is better than mine on these points.
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Post by compound26 on Sept 4, 2018 15:29:53 GMT -5
CC I have to agree with you. The last four or five months I have been laying low because it’s upsetting to see the share price. Perhaps we will gain some momentum. This is a good deal for United therapeutics as their current device is so big and bulky that using a Technosphere type device opens a new market for them at a reduced cost of producing drug. Wider access to people who need this type of medication will be big for both companies. There are a lot of people with untreated COPD. The best part about it is that United Therapeutics can just swap Mannkind's drug for theirs when they start selling it. They already have the customer base and I'm sure 100% of the current patients would switch to the new device. You have guaranteed customers from the beginning (without competing for them), instead of trying to drum up all new business. Then you add on the new patients that didn't take it because of the bulkiness. For UTC it's a no brainer: cheaper production of device, more patients. Great observation! This means the low double digits royalty income will start kicking in shortly after the drug is on the market. That will be great.
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Post by compound26 on Sept 4, 2018 13:58:22 GMT -5
Can I say at the end of the day they collected 45+23+10 M$. Milestone + Common Stock issuable under the 2018 Equity Incentive Plan + collaboration with United and then future milestones United+receptorlife ? Can we say they extend runway well inside 2 qtr 2019 ? Don't forget that there are about 14 million shares worth of warranties out there that can be exercised at around $2.38 (if I remember correctly). If exercised, that will bring in about $33 million additional cash.
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Post by compound26 on Sept 4, 2018 13:48:47 GMT -5
Wow, a reunion of old friends in the comments section.
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Post by compound26 on Sept 4, 2018 13:45:44 GMT -5
Unlimited shares at 1.10 last week Matt, where are you? ? Traderdennis is trying his darndest, but he needs you!! Answer the call, Matt. Our resident BK expert and Dendreon expert Matt probably is speaking with S.O. on how to respond. mnkd.proboards.com/post/157287A couple of quotes/comments from the article: Matt_PK Comments440 | + Follow "It is more like a few weeks of cash. If Deerfield did not agree to take shares and Spencer's other numbers are correct (and generally he is quite accurate) the company is down to around $7-8 million with a weekly burn rate of $2 million. I seriously doubt they paid DF in cash because if they need time to deal with creditors then they need every penny of available cash to tide them over. No doubt the board has taken legal advice on their options and the lawyers would have advised them to conserve cash no matter which creditor might be upset. The challenge to raising money at this time is that the trading volume has been declining, and PIPE investors like to see lots of liquidity in a stock. There are not a lot of viable options left." 01 Sep 2018, 09:45 AM Reply " Matt_PK Comments440 | + Follow "Dendreon was a much different situation that I know well because I was engaged as an expert for part of the proceedings so I remember it all very well. The big difference is that DNDN had substantial sales, not enough to cover their expenses but a run rate of over $300 million, had a positive gross margin, and $120 million in cash when they filed. While they were still losing money, DNDN was down to burning about $10 million a quarter, but bankruptcy costs money, a lot of money, and DNDN went through almost all of the cash in the eight months after they filed and shareholders recovered nothing at all. MNKD does not have the cash they need to pull off a Chapter 11 reorganization because they will run out of cash long before they can put a reorg plan on the table. Unless they have quietly negotiated a prepackaged plan with Deerfield, Amphastar, Mann Group, and the other major creditors, they will not have the room to maneuver in the courtroom if it is a contested case. Like you said, at this point any rabbit from any hat will do." If you knew the Dendreon situation well, and engaged as an expert, as well as regarding their sales then you would also know how much each treatment cost and what their coverage was and how the urologists were re-imbursed. While both companies share underwhelming sales that is about the only thing they have in common and the potential for Afrezza is in a whole different class than Provenge was. Actually if you really want to look at the difference, Provenge was the pioneer in becoming the first FDA approved immunotherapy treatment for cancer (prostrate), and unfortunately it only was shown to extend life on average of an additional 3 mos. so the cost and benefit was a huge factor in their sales and coverage along with the cause for poor sales. The cost/benefit for treating both T1/T2 PWD regarding the results being shown with of quickly reducing HbA1c and reduced risk of hypo incidents is the opposite end of the spectrum compared to Provenge's efficacy/benefit. There are two major reasons why Dendreon failed as a company: 1. Dendreon's drug, Provenge only provided a limited benefit to prostate cancer patients, something like another 3 months of survival. Another drug was launched around the same time called Zytiga added 5.2 months, so Provenge certainly wasn't the only option. 2. Dendreon's drug required urologists to buy the drug at a cost of $90K and then wait for insurance to reimburse them. Urologists don't typically do this, so they hesitated to use it. Zytiga is just a pill, so urologists were much more comfortable just writing a prescription rather than risking $100K per patient. Sources: www.forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2011/08/04/dendreons-scientific-breakthrough-fails-to-sell/#6d73ee993c43www.quora.com/What-are-the-major-reasons-behind-the-fall-of-Dendreon
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Post by compound26 on Sept 4, 2018 9:54:02 GMT -5
So glad what I wrote a year ago came out to be true. Mike found a partner who is willing to provide a $50 million upfront fee (we actually got $55 million, if we include the $10 million upfront fee for research collaboration) for a PAH partnership. So happy! Mike is the Man! mnkd.proboards.com/post/117772 "Mike was talking about a global target population, while you are talking about the US target population. "It’s estimated to impact of 250,000 individuals worldwide". If your number is close to accurate, then Mike's number is very conservative.
And I do not think $860.6 million sales is anywhere underwhelming. And even if Mannkind does 1/10 of it, say $80 million a year, if Mannkind can get $20 million a year of profit out of it, and you give it a 20 time PE, that alone will give you a market cap of $400 million. Remember that our market cap has been hovering around $100 million for a while.
So if we can indeed generate a sale of $800 million a year and if we can get $200 million a year of profit out of it, and you give it a 20 time PE, that alone will give you a market cap of $4 billion, which will translates into a PPS of $40. You are not happy about that?
How about Mike finding some partner who is willing to provide a $50 million upfront fee for a PAH partnership? Mike, let's do it."
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Post by compound26 on Aug 24, 2018 7:08:23 GMT -5
Ok back again 7M$ 22 trading days 330K if you have no money on hand let's say we use 3M$ cash on hand x month 4/22=180k You see we can say we are embarassed We use $8 Million cash each month, not sure at all where you get $3Million. 20 days was for simple math, at most you have 250 trading days in a year after holidays, with many more low volume trading days to boot. (Friday before monday holidays, day before TG, Christmas eve, New Years Eve, 2 days of Jewish high holidays) After account for those 20 days per month is generous. I stand by 400K cash needed to sustain the current cash burn rate. This is about right now, but not exactly. On average, we have 252 trade days a year and 21 trade days a month. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trading_dayThe NYSE and NASDAQ average about 252 trading days a year. The holidays are New Year's Day, Martin Luther King Jr. Day, Washington's Birthday, Good Friday, Memorial Day, Independence Day, Labor Day, Thanksgiving Day, Christmas Day. There are exactly 252 trading days in 2016. There are exactly 251 trading days in 2017. There are exactly 252 trading days in 2018.
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Post by compound26 on Aug 23, 2018 11:09:24 GMT -5
Just a little more indication that the company is selling shares via the atm in the open market. I am not sure of that. Typically a company cannot sell more than about 10% of the daily volume in new shares without having a noticeable impact on the share price. Based on last quarter's 10Q, the company burns about $800,000 in cash per trading day to fund operations so at recent prices, say $1.10 net of fees, the company would need to sell 728,000 new shares per day just to keep even PLUS there is debt service to Deerfield and Amphastar that would be in addition to the daily operating cash burn. If you look at volumes traded over the last week or so, it does not follow that there are that many ATM shares hitting the market or else the price would be a lot lower. Which of course begs the question if the company is not hitting the ATM hard, what are they up to? Something has to give by August 31 when the next payment is due to Deerfield so I guess we will all find out soon enough. Wow, Proboards Matt (our resident bankruptcy "expert") knows as a fact that Mannkind is burning $800,000 per trading day (which translates into $52 millions per quarter and $208 per year). Seems like even Mannkind's CEO and CFO do not know that. Mannkind's CEO and CFO must be complete idiots, as they have repeatedly saying that they expect the 2018 cash burn to be within $90 million to $100 million range. That is totally different from the number Proboards Matt is telling us ($208 million). Since we all know that Proboards Matt must be right, so Mannkind's CEO and CFO must be complete idiots. As a reminder, Proboards Matt also knew for a fact that back in 2016 Mannkind's meager contract sales force cost Mannkind $10 million a month. Proboards Matt also observed that Mannkind was burning about $20 million a month in 2016 even though Mannkind was talking about a $10 million/month burning rate. Here is Matt's number crunching. mnkd.proboards.com/post/75017
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Post by compound26 on Aug 7, 2018 19:05:32 GMT -5
Haven't checked the relevant documents , but I guess these 22 million of shares incentives will be exercised on a multiple year basis. So it's probably not likely that the management can use up these shares all at once this year.
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Post by compound26 on Aug 7, 2018 14:07:19 GMT -5
The logic is quite clear. The company absolutely must raise money over the next eight weeks or so and that will have to involve dilution given the revenue miss and the lack of assets to secure a loan. The hedge fund knows that the shares will effectively create a discount to the current price so there is an arbitrage there between the price and the discounted price. So the hedge fund piles in and the price drops, this is a bonus for the hedge fund since it adds to the margin in the arbitrage. I think the likely outcome is that Deerfield will provide the money at a price. They have first claim on the assets so they are covered, and they will want to get their warrants repriced. My bet would be that Deerfield buy stock at a small discount, and the warrants get repriced to the current price. Deerfield will make money on the stock arbitrage, and have a heap of cheap warrants to secure a short position. agedhippie Not sure if you are short of MNKD. But to me your writing style is very similar to that of matt . What you wrote might be true. But in my view, your posts suggest that your thinking is very rigid and without imagination. Just like you had never though that Sanofi would pony up $50 million or so as settlement with Mannkind even though quite a few in this board thought that was very likely. I think you would not have thought Deerfield would loose the minimum cash hold last year to $10 million at one point. Similarly, I noticed that our famous bankruptcy expert matt yet again started to write about bankruptcy of Mannkind after he had wrote about it abundantly predicting mannkind to declare bankruptcy in thanksgiving 2016 and then by August 2017. My point is that yes, Deerfield has a covenant with mannkind that requires the latter to have a minimum cash hold of $25 million. Yes, Deerfield has the Danbury facility as collateral for its debt. However, given that mannkind has paid down the Deerfield debt to $25 million, mannkind has for the first time (since they secured their financing with Deerfield a few years back) the flexibility to do some major restructuring of the Deerfield debt, for example, by taking a new piece of debt from a new lender/investor, to take out the Deerfield debt entirely, or for the new lender/investor to take a second lien position to the danbury facility, with Deerfield remaining as the creditor taking the first/senior lien. Note that also Mannkind is growing its gross revenue/net revenue at 100% + annually. While we are not seeing hockey stick growth yet, 100% + annual growth rate is nothing to sneer at. I would say it is not so easy to find public companies whose main product has great market potential and its sales is growing at 100% + annually. I think Mannkind is on a similar growth track to that of Dexcom (at a market cap of around $8 billion currently) looking a few years back. As MK pointed out, when mannking is print $7/8 million a quarter by the fourth quarter, wall street will start to notice mannkind. For the members here, if you have not read the book “devering happiness”, I recommend it to you guys. It's a great book and very entertaining. www.amazon.com/Delivering-Happiness-Profits-Passion-Purpose/dp/0446576220/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1533668552&sr=8-1&keywords=delivering+happiness In it, there was a point, Zappos was growing very fast, but was very much cash strapped and was facing a crisis. But then they got a lifeline via a loan from Wells Fargo as the bank saw great potential in Zappos in its growing sales. "Then something happened that changed everything: a loan from Wells Fargo Bank. No longer did they have to sit down every week, deciding which vendors to pay and which to put off. The company was saved. Now, for the first time, they were ready to become profitable and grow." www.customerville.com/en/download/guides/zappos
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