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Post by compound26 on Feb 4, 2019 23:05:28 GMT -5
Lakefox - you said you "just placed my 1st order". Today is Feb 4th. It would be nice to know if the program has been extended or if letting you place the order was a mistake. You said "I called MannKind Cares asking for help and they gave me the contact information for Direct Purchase." Maybe I will call Mannkind Cares tomorrow and ask what the deal is. No way Mannkind will end this Direct Purchase Program. I think 100% this program will stay there for a long time. What may go away is that promotional price of $199 for the first 1,000 users once that quota is used up. However, Mannkind has the full discretion to expand that program as well. And I think the regular price will not be much higher than the promotional price. If I have to guess, my guess would be that the regular price will be 2X to 3X (i.e., $400 to $600) the promotional price, that will still be much cheaper than the current GoodRx retail price.
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Post by compound26 on Jan 31, 2019 12:19:36 GMT -5
My thinking is that Mike C and Mannkind will give their best try through the end of 2020 to see if they can make Afrezza a blockbuster. Recall that Mike mentioned many times that he has carved out a three year window for Afrezza sales to grow. That three year window spans from 2018 to 2021.
Note that since Mannkind hired its own sales force (at the beginning of 2017), based on numbers reported by Symphony, Afrezza weekly sales has grown from about $0.15 million per week to about $1 million per week. A 600%-700% increase. I consider that a success. We just need that trend to continue. Going forward, if we can just double the weekly sales each year, that will suffice. [In other words, by end of 2019, weekly sales of $2 million and by end of 2020, weekly sales of $4 million.]
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Post by compound26 on Jan 22, 2019 16:15:37 GMT -5
I think compound may have got his threads mixed up. :-) Yes, I got it mixed up. Have deleted it.
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Post by compound26 on Jan 22, 2019 13:48:20 GMT -5
How much cash do we estimate they currently have? When do we expect UTHR milestones to come in? I believe we started the year with $70M, I estimate we've currently spent $8-10M on ads and $10M on the monthly burn. Probably brought in a net of, maybe $1M in Afrezza revenue. I'm guessing we have somewhere around $50M, does anyone disagree? They have debt covenants at what dollar amount $10M? So, I estimate we have around $40M of usable cash, which gives us 4 months (without additional advertising blitz) before we need to see a milestone of some other source of cash. Thoughts? bigchungus91354 what is the assumption of your numbers? I recall reading somewhere that, in 2017, when Mannkind did the test run of the ads in 12 markets, the ad campaign for the whole fourth quarter costed them about $ 8M. Now for this ad campaign, which just started on Jan. 14 and we are on Jan. 22. Basically just one week of ad campaign. I have no idea how much they have spent already on ad campaign. But if, as you have estimated, they are spending $8-10M in about a week, that will be translated into $24-30M in ad money per month and $72-90M in ad money per quarter. However, note that Mike stated something like that they now have the resource to engage in sustained consumer promotion. And additionally, Mike stated that Mannkind have sufficient funds to get to mid 2020 (assuming the $1.6 warrants get exercised). Based on these statements, it is unlikely that Mannkind is spending the amount of money on ad campaign as you have estimated. My personal guess is that Mannkind would not spend more than $16-20M (i.e., 2 to 2.5 times what they spent in the fourth quarter of 2017) on ad campaign on any given quarter and they probably will not spend that much on each quarter (i.e, if they spend heavily on the 1st quarter, they will taper such spending on the next quarter).
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Post by compound26 on Jan 18, 2019 11:11:27 GMT -5
Imho for $500m they are not going to give up control of the company. Agree.
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Post by compound26 on Jan 16, 2019 14:09:00 GMT -5
How about a direct purchase option through Vdex?
I was thinking OneDrop since they already have a direct to consumer model that cuts out the middle man, but Vdex would be an interesting partner too.
Mannkind can use both. OneDrop for the direct sale infrastructure and Vdex for consumers to get a prescription. So if a consumer wants to get Afrezza through the direct sales program, he/she can get a prescription from Vdex and then get the prescription fulfilled through OneDrop.
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Post by compound26 on Jan 11, 2019 11:59:33 GMT -5
UTHR Milestones total $50M. 2019 = 2 payments @ $12.5M each 2020 = 2 payments @ $12.5M each Assumption is that payments will be made every 6 months. CJ did not include 2020 payments will get them to Mid 2020. Yes. Mike C. clearly stated in the Jan. 4 conference call that Mannkind is expecting to get $37.5M (which clearly refers to three installments of $12.5M each) in milestone payments from UTHR within the next 18 months (i.e. before mid 2020).
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Post by compound26 on Jan 8, 2019 11:46:24 GMT -5
My guess is that this direct purchase program will be announced on or around Jan. 14th, the date Mannkind starts its new ad campaign.
So it seems that, on or around Jan. 14th, Mannkind will announce a few items:
1. an ad campaign
"A major television campaign is to launch on January 14th from 26 national cable networks as well as on local TV stations that align to our growing, but targeting salesforce strategy."
2. a new co-pay card
"The new co-pay card we are launching and how they are different. So this card is a two in one card. So what happens, last year we had a voucher program that gave you one month free. Now what will happen is the patients go to the pharmacy, they’ll download the card, they can use it on their Apple wallet or a Google platform and they can use that if -- it will - they won’t even know if they are covered or not."
3. direct purchase program
This is my guess based on what Mike discussed in the call.
"we are going to launch a special introductory price for the first thousand people who sign-up during the month of January. And we kind of see how the program goes."
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Post by compound26 on Jan 8, 2019 11:39:04 GMT -5
I guess you will know that once the details of the program is announced.
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Post by compound26 on Jan 7, 2019 19:02:26 GMT -5
Assuming we are going to grow at the same rate each year after 2018 (about 58.95% (or about 60%) year over year when comparing 2018 to 2017, just looking at scripts growth, not revenue growth) and assuming the net revenue for 2018 is $16 million, here are the net revenue for the coming years based on such growth in total prescriptions year over year: year | net revenue | 2019 | 25 million | 2020 | 40 million | 2021 | 63 million | 2022 | 100 million |
So even if we grow at this snail pace, Mannkind will be able to break even on Afrezza alone in about 4 years. Not too bad. When you consider that there are multiple other pipeline drugs aside from Afrezza. Mannkind's future looks pretty promising to me. I recall that in terms of timeline of approval, Afrezza is approximately 7-8 years behind Dexcom CGM. Dexcom finally started to break even and be profitable in 2018. If we push that forward by 7-8 years, that's around 2025. If Mannkind is able to break even on Afrezza by 2022, it is not too slow if we compare that with Dexcom CGM. Remember that there was a significant change in packaging during 2017 Q4 (from one month to 3 months supply). So 2018 script contains more cartridges. I guess, in old script value, the equivalent 2018 scripts is over 30k, more than 59% script increase. @investersam Yes, I am totally aware of the package change. There was also some significant price increase of Afrezza kits that occurred in summer and fall of 2017. As a result, the year over year gross sale revenue (reported by Symphony) grew about 135% while the TRX grew about 60%. However, I will be happy if the TRX and revenue each can continue to grow at 50% plus annually going forward. datastudio.google.com/u/0/reporting/13xt2__SjNRjk1uBRcaUJiowb7P-iW9F_/page/C0kK
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Post by compound26 on Jan 7, 2019 17:50:30 GMT -5
Below is what Mike stated in the Jan. 4th conference call. seekingalpha.com/article/4231518-mannkind-corporation-mnkd-ceo-michael-castagna-hosts-investor-conference-call-transcript?part=singleBrian Marckx
Mike, you mentioned a direct purchase program that you're going to implement. Can you give us a sense of what you think that may result in terms of incremental revenue? Is it significant do you believe? Michael CastagnaI don't think it will be significant in terms of revenue, I’ll say profits more than revenue because we don't know until we announce this program. It's -- there's over about 400 – 400 to 500,000 prescriptions in a week in the U.S. and we see somewhere between 10 and 20,000 paying significant amount of money per week -- per month I'm sorry. And so, we don't know how much of that will be word-of-mouth, how do much that we going to find those people, how much of the doctors help those patients. And so that could be significant numbers of people. But it may not be, right, so that's why we're not putting a lot of weight on it, but we are going to launch a special introductory price for the first thousand people who sign-up during the month of January. And we kind of see how the program goes. And so that's really our focus here as they try to address what we see is a pricing crisis for people paying cash for mealtime insulin. Hopefully we find good strategic partners to help patients, get better care, and they not rationing their insulin. And so that's part of our main focus is, we don't want the price points to stop patients from getting access to treatment. And I think that what's most important and we want to be part of that solution. So we’re very excited to have a solution with a direct purchase program where you can see all the middlemen do take up about over 50% of the cost at the end of the day when you add it all up. And then it’s a very expensive process, right, if you're trying to hire sales force and a medical team and education and dinner events, I mean all that cost money. And so this will be a different program with a very different target and not one that you'll see our sales force from going to much more one that will be out there either through web sites and/or third party engagements we plan to do when we launch it. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ If the transcripts got it right, Mike was saying " we are going to launch a special introductory price for the first thousand people who sign-up during the month of January." It is very unlikely Mike was referring January 2020. In all likelihood, he was probably referring to January 2019 and, guess what, we are in January 2019. If that is the case, seems like this program will be announced imminently, within one to two weeks, as there are only about four weeks left in the month of January. Mike was also saying "So we’re very excited to have a solution with a direct purchase program where you can see all the middlemen do take up about over 50% of the cost at the end of the day when you add it all up. " Did he say " So we’re very excited to have a solution with a direct purchase program"? Was he implying that the program is already there (just waiting to be announced?)
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Post by compound26 on Jan 7, 2019 17:01:37 GMT -5
Six or nine months is not going to cut it, they need to get this moving now! Within the next three months. Or I suspect they have some decisions to make. @sportsrancho Are you expecting hokey stick growth for Afrezza? I am with mannmade on this isue. At this point, I am do expect hokey stick growth for Afrezza at all. If it comes, it is a bonus for me. I do not count on it. As long as we can grow at current pace (2018's TRx over 2017 is about 159%; in other words, the growth rate is about 60% annualized), I think we will be fine. I recall reading that Dexcom CGM's annual sales grew at about 50% annually before it finally break even.
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Post by compound26 on Jan 7, 2019 14:50:32 GMT -5
2015 - 19,604 (Sanofi Controlled) 2016 - 16,005 (Sanofi Partnership terminated Jan 2016) 2017 - 17,379 (MNKD controlled) 2018 - 27,624 (TV ads roll, STAT published) Who came the closest to predicting the correct number of scripts? Well, you did cretin11. Congrats on the guesswork. It was certainly refreshing to read so many messages from a year ago. Thanks hellodolly. I'm chagrined to have "won" this competition, I was pulling for those who guessed higher numbers. Definitely disappointed that my conservative estimate was still overly optimistic (by almost 20%). Assuming we are going to grow at the same rate each year after 2018 (about 58.95% (or about 60%) year over year when comparing 2018 to 2017, just looking at scripts growth, not revenue growth) and assuming the net revenue for 2018 is $16 million, here are the net revenue for the coming years based on such growth in total prescriptions year over year: year | net revenue | 2019 | 25 million | 2020 | 40 million | 2021 | 63 million | 2022 | 100 million |
So even if we grow at this snail pace, Mannkind will be able to break even on Afrezza alone in about 4 years. Not too bad. When you consider that there are multiple other pipeline drugs aside from Afrezza. Mannkind's future looks pretty promising to me. I recall that in terms of timeline of approval, Afrezza is approximately 7-8 years behind Dexcom CGM. Dexcom finally started to break even and be profitable in 2018. If we push that forward by 7-8 years, that's around 2025. If Mannkind is able to break even on Afrezza by 2022, it is not too slow if we compare that with Dexcom CGM.
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Post by compound26 on Jan 4, 2019 18:42:51 GMT -5
hmm.. so while at risk of not giving away 10% of the company for 2.38$, the decision was to give away 20% of the company for 1.50 and 1.60$.. without any current need for money! So in total this last decisions might mean that 30$ of the company was given away for something like 80mil$..
And again, why is there a need for securing money for the next 18months right now?
Its not like we have a solid streak in rising product sales doubling every year (which would mean for example 12month from now would be a much better option to give shares away..) Or why not giving shares away at all, but make another Deerfield deal? Any delay not costing 30% of the company shares would be a better one!
I believe this is correct. That’s why it’s been called a sloppy transaction. If there wasn’t another component to it, and now we all know there wasn’t. It’s really hard for me to buy the market is so scary scenario, because the market could be just fine for the rest of the year. Or not. Or bad next year... Not saying what Mike and his team did (in respect of this offering) was perfect. But I think it is unfair to say there is no current need for money. Aside from the apparent concern of worsening stock market conditions and the drying of capital market for small caps, as mike noted in the conference call, Mannkind needs to make sure they have sufficient funds to ramp up the commercialization of Afrezza and pursue the pipeline for the next 12-18 months so that they can make the plans for 2019 and beyond. As Mike noted, they can certainly do that at a later point in 2019, but it makes quite a difference when you can have the plan in place and start to execute the plan in full steam right from the start of the new year. Plus, I think t here is a huge physiological difference in the mind of the sales representatives, prescribing doctors and patients when they know the drug manufacturer (Mannkind) has secured funding for the next 18 months (and beyond). Without this additional funding, there appears to be an apparent gap in the funding of Mannkind, which gives an impression that Mannkind may needs additional funding at any time (with cash balance of $70 million vs 30 million at the start of the year, then we need to consider that Mannkind needs to meet the minimum cash balance of $20/25 million at the end of each quarter as required by Deerfield, incoming Deerfield debt payment, insulin purchase obligations and uncertainty of the timing of UTHR milestone payment (i.e., we do not know when the next $12.5 million milestone will come in). At least for me, if I were a sales representative at Mannkind, I will feel much secured at this point (with this offering completed and $40 million in the corporate coffers). Additionally, I still recall Mike is the guy who sold his entire holdings of Mannkind the moment he received the news that Mannkind was partnering up with Sanofi. I have confidence that Mike has much better sense on the big picture of Mannkind than most of us here on this board.
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Post by compound26 on Dec 26, 2018 16:25:32 GMT -5
The fact that the latest offering coincided with Feb interest rate hike seems to me Mike was simply executing his plan B to secure enough fund to carry MNKD to profit point. My guess of his plan A was to convert all the warrants that were priced around $2.40. The recent market condition plus the Fed latest interest rate hike forced Mike to pull the trigger. Yes, agree. That is also my take. The market is clearly over-reacting to this offering. mnkd.proboards.com/post/164592
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