|
Post by compound26 on Dec 21, 2018 16:57:56 GMT -5
200-300 new patients start on Afrezza every week and have for a year now. Less than 10% stay on the med. Not a recipe for compounding growth and not much changing in the near future. Sad story Of course 200 to 300 new patients do NOT start on Afrezza every week. The number of "new prescriptions" does NOT equal the number of new patients, since a patient can be given multiple prescriptions over time as his or her doc adjusts the dosages or the patient gets insurance coverage or his or her prescription expires. Each one of those prescriptions falls into the "new" category. I've been taking thyroid meds for years and over those years have received literally dozens of "new" prescriptions. I'll be a happy dog when "200-300 new patients start on Afrezza every week," but that's something that will surely happen in the future. No need to argue on this point. There are detailed released data on this point already. In Mannkind's third quarter presentation, there is a slide showing the year to date new to brand prescriptions. The number is 5,993 NBRX through the first nine months of 2018. You divide that by 39 weeks and will get an average weekly NBRX of 153.67. As a comparison, the NBRX for the first 9 months of 2017 was 3,962, You divide that by 39 weeks and will get an average weekly NBRX of 101.59.
|
|
|
Post by compound26 on Dec 20, 2018 10:43:12 GMT -5
MC probably is concerned about possible market meltdown. That explains the timing. He explained this concern when Mannkind did last round of capital raise. My guess is that this recent offering is meant to replace the warrants issued in early 2018. Mike and Steve probably were expecting that $33 million to come in. I believe at least that was the case when Mike announced the UTHR deal. However, our PPS drifted lower after that announcement. Towards the end of year, when it seems more likely that the warrants will probably not be exercised, they decided to pull the plug on another offering. After this offering, it will less likely that the early 2018 warrants will be exercised. So basically, the net effect is that Mannkind got $40 million (with certain fees and commissions to be taken out) (vs $33 million that was supposed to come in via warrants exercise), but issued about 10 million more shares (than the originally expected exercise of the early 2018 warrants). All considered, an acceptable alternative from my perspective. My guess is that, with this new offering (around $40 million in proceeds (with certain fees and commissions to be taken out)), combined with Mannkind's existing cash, expected UTHR payments for 2019, anticipated Afrezza sales for 2019, Mannkind should have sufficient funding for 2019. If the warrants issued for this offering get exercised at $1.6 by the end of 2019, then, with such proceeds (around $40 million), combined with expected UTHR payments for 2020, anticipated Afrezza sales for 2020, Mannkind should have sufficient funding for 2020.
|
|
|
Post by compound26 on Dec 20, 2018 10:25:33 GMT -5
congratulations to all stock holders:MNKD made it to the top of the losers today. Disclaimer: 7000 x 9.06 USD/share. Not a bad time to buy. Just picked up another 1,000 of shares at $1.15.
|
|
|
Post by compound26 on Dec 20, 2018 0:41:14 GMT -5
MC probably is concerned about possible market meltdown. That explains the timing. He explained this concern when Mannkind did last round of capital raise.
|
|
|
Post by compound26 on Dec 17, 2018 18:44:17 GMT -5
Goya what I think you are missing is that the new language reflects the stat study results which says the ada is listening to Dr. K. Also this will give docs who read it a reason to prescribe. Key is that Afrezza may lead to less hypos w no additional weight gain. Agree. Definitely a substantial improvement to mention the STAT result in the SoC. As to how impactful this will be, we will have to wait and see.
|
|
|
Post by compound26 on Dec 13, 2018 22:50:38 GMT -5
TRX 688 Sales revenue $975,000.
|
|
|
Post by compound26 on Dec 7, 2018 0:06:01 GMT -5
My guess for tomorrow's numbers is: TRX 625; Total sales $875,000.
I will be thrilled if we break 700, happy if we break 650, okay if it comes out around 625.
|
|
|
Post by compound26 on Dec 4, 2018 0:17:00 GMT -5
Yep, he definitely said it. "Like davinci said, you need to do the numbers." "So add all of that up, and you will see that it might take substantially more than 10,000 scripts to reach cash flow break even. In the meantime, the company will burn cash, the balance sheet will deteriorate, and that is what Wall Street will be looking at. Any decent financial analyst would do the same calculation I just outlined and come to a similar conclusion..." — matt August 7, 2016 at 9:01AM Observation: I'm sure it doesn't count anymore though because he said it so long ago.‘Any decent financial analyst would do the same calculation I just outlined and come to a similar conclusion..." ‘Any decent financial analyst would do the same calculation I just outlined and come to a similar conclusion..." "Any decent financial analyst would do the same calculation I just outlined and come to a similar conclusion..." So, you see, anyone does not reach the same conclusion is evidently not a decent financial analyst. As usual, our resident bankruptcy expert is full of swag. I can see him bigger than Jim Cramer, Warren Buffet, etal, or perhaps all of them combined.
|
|
|
Post by compound26 on Nov 26, 2018 12:58:03 GMT -5
In the last CC, Mike said the following about Afrezza prescriptions: seekingalpha.com/article/4217121-mannkind-corporation-mnkd-ceo-michael-castagna-q3-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=singleNext comment here is around our prescription. So we look at there is two sets of data. Some of you see weekly data on the internet. I will talk about prescriber data which is little more detailed that is given to the public for the Bloomberg Terminals. The data here is based on prescriber data. And we have see -- over the last five weeks, we have broken 600 and in few weeks we have come closed to 700 scripts a week. We are breaking 685 and 670 numbers consistently now as we go forward. We look forward to breaking through 700. But what you can see year-to-date, we are up almost 70% growth versus the same period last year. And we have had double digit growth from Q1 to Q2 and Q2 to Q3. We continue to expect to see it further growing for years to come. Another question we often get is around our base business and our new member, Rx versus NRx. I want to continue to show this data so that you guys have transparency that our base business continues to grow year-over-year and was up 74% year-to-date 2018 versus 2017 and our new NBRx, which is new to brand treatment, is up 51% year-over-year. So, we continue to see very positive momentum. We continue to see great new prescribers joining us every week, and then make prescribing increasing. We all want it faster. And in closing Q3, I want to let you know about several changes we made in Q4 that you should be aware of. One, we transitioned to a new head of sales who had deep diabetes background and relationships, who will be instrumental in helping us recruit and retain talent given the competitive job market. Number two, we have hired several new marketers starting with Garrett, our Chief Marketing Officer, who we previously announced. Now that we have stabilized our company and our future prospects, she is working on a plan to put Afrezza back on track to becoming major growth driver over the coming years. Three, we continue to be prudent with our capital allocation by holding openings and spend where appropriate as we rebalance our company priorities to include tremendous focus on the Technosphere platform balanced by driving Afrezza growth in the near term. And finally, we are building out our program management office and business development functions as we believe these will be critical as we transition our company back to a growth engine. That said, I will now turn it over to Steve. __________________________________________________________________________________________ Interestingly, someone posted something in a comment to MK's post on Linkedin regarding this new Head of Sales. www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A6465598969106964480/?commentUrn=urn%3Ali%3Acomment%3A%28activity%3A6465517304221364224%2C6465598901989703680%29Michael Kovacocy 3w MNKD - I stand by everything I wrote yesterday. But that said, upon further reflection, I think management owes it to shareholders to give an accurate analysis of actual versus guided performance. I was wrong for letting them off too easily on this point. It encourages bad behaviour and reduced market trust going forward. As much as there exists some personal delicacies and major differences between myself and Spencer, I do agree that management needs to do a proper mea culpa on the guidance issue if they indeed are going to miss already lowered targets. Guidance is important because one’s word is important. Delivering to expectations is important. It is the professional thing to do to properly address exactly why one has fallen so short of the bar. D M. Michael, great questions yesterday. Appreciate your insight and intellect. Mannkind has turned a corner. Lots of pivots in '18 that clearly reallocated time & $ to non-Afrezza opportunities. I understand your comments above but in fairness to Mike, in your final question your words were "I think I'll finish up with that" and in conjunction with earlier comments about offline discussions may have led Mike to believe you were done with your questions. Sounds to me like Mike would always welcome a conversation with you offline or during a CC. Side note: small company has little or no margin for error. The problem with sales leadership was very detrimental. The new person in charge will have a positive, measurable impact given both their demeanor and diabetes knowledge.
__________________________________________________________________________________________Wondering when we will see some effect of this new Head of Sales as reflected in the form of improved weekly NRx? Anyone has any insight, knowledge or thoughts on this?
|
|
|
Post by compound26 on Nov 6, 2018 1:53:20 GMT -5
I'm just curious, between mnkdfann and aged hippie there are over 5000 posts on proboards alone, do either of you invest in or use Mannkind products? Will positive FDA approvals for Mannkind products adversely affect your employer's financial or your personal financial position (as this is about FDA approvals). I invest in, but do not use the products. I realize the moderators would prefer to keep the conversation cerebral, but quite honestly I find the continued negative drumbeat offensive as a long term investor. The "thing" on Yahoo MSG Board seems to capture enough of this vibe for all platforms. Can't agree more on this.
|
|
|
Post by compound26 on Oct 29, 2018 17:13:31 GMT -5
www.receptorlife.com/receptor-holdings-inc-secures-29-million-funding-roundReceptor Holdings, Inc. Secures $29 Million Funding Round
PRESS RELEASE October 29, 2018 SEATTLE – Receptor Holdings, Inc. and its wholly-owned subsidiary, Receptor Life Sciences, a biopharmaceutical company developing cannabinoid medicines featuring distinct pharmaceutical drug delivery technologies, today announced that it raised $29 million in a combined convertible debt and Series A round of financing. Receptor controls patented and disruptive oral and inhaled drug delivery technologies that are validated by their use in FDA-approved products. In initial studies, Receptor’s oral dosage formulations facilitated rapid drug absorption from the GI tract with higher bioavailability than has been reported for existing oral cannabinoid products. Receptor’s inhalation technology combines a simple-to-use, breath-powered inhaler with dry powder cannabinoid formulations that provides ultra-rapid, precise and discreet delivery of cannabinoid medicines to the deep lung. “The closing of the Series A round will allow us to initiate IND-enabling studies in the United States and to formalize collaborations in Canada and Europe,” said Greg Wesner, Chief Executive Officer of Receptor Holdings. “The growing consensus is that cannabinoids have the potential to meet numerous and significant unmet medical needs for indications including epilepsy, chronic pain and post-traumatic stress disorder. By leveraging validated drug delivery technologies, we believe our products have the potential to set the standard of care for cannabinoid medicines in terms of onset of action, bioavailability and consistency.” ABOUT RECEPTOR HOLDINGS Receptor Holdings, Inc. owns or has exclusively licensed drug delivery technologies characterized by high bioavailability, rapid onset of action and lower variability and is applying these technologies to the burgeoning field of cannabinoid therapy. Its wholly-owned subsidiary, Receptor Life Sciences, is focused on the development of cannabinoid drugs regulated by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Receptor Holdings also plans to introduce its disruptive technologies to the non-prescription cannabinoid markets that are developing in Canada, Europe and elsewhere.
|
|
|
Post by compound26 on Oct 26, 2018 14:49:17 GMT -5
I loaded up on more 2021 $4 call options today. I am so, so long. While I hope Mike announces world peace on Thursday I am resigning myself to another 6 months of drudgery. Wish I was you:-) you’re loaded, set for whatever comes and can wait it out. I’m hoping we get a little bump next week so I can roll calls and re-load for 2021. Safe haven in this market! Last night I was reading my book by James Patterson, The Third juror...there was a man accused of a horrific murder,he did not commit. His women attorney was very wet behind the ears. And old associate came to her with some very important evidence, they made arrangements to meet later in the day. The attorney looked worried, and said, can’t you tell me anything now? and her friend said, not to worry the “Calvary is coming!” I just had to put my book down and laugh! What are the odds... Why not buy the shares themselves? At the current price, the shares are a bargain to me in comparison to the 2021 calls. You will have peace of mind as well holding the shares rather than the calls.
|
|
|
Post by compound26 on Oct 3, 2018 20:26:18 GMT -5
Here is Mike said "So we do have a unique insulin, we are working with third parties to try to get a new classification of ultra-acting. We'll continue to focus on that." My guess is the AACE is the other as Mike said "parties". Agree. ADA is most likely a party. JDRF could also be such a party.
|
|
|
Post by compound26 on Oct 3, 2018 11:44:18 GMT -5
Absolutely amazing and inspiring video. @sportsrancho thanks for posting this. My number one takeaway from watching this video is that UT and Martine Rothblatt personally have every incentive to make Tre-T a success and be on the market as soon as possible. Basically Martine Rothblatt founded UT with the sole purpose to develop a drug/cure for PAH so that her daughter can be saved. My understanding is that, if nothing else, Tre-T will greatly improve the quality of life of PAH patients (which I think include Martine Rothblatt's daughter). Therefore, it must be one of the priorities of UT and Martine Rothblatt personally to get Tre-T to the market as soon as possible. (I think Mike's Cantor Fitzgerald's presentation also confirms this point. Mike basically stated that the remaining $50 million milestone for Tre-T was mainly scheduled to make sure Mannkind does not procrastinate (so to speak) in meeting the agreed-upon development timeline.) Another observation, since Martine Rothblatt's own daughter suffers from PAH and Martine Rothblatt founded UT with the sole purpose to develop a drug/cure for PAH so that her daughter can be saved, the fact that UT and Martine Rothblatt choose to partner with Mannkind on Tre-T (rather than a competing product) really says a lot about Tre-T's potential.
|
|
|
Post by compound26 on Oct 3, 2018 11:10:29 GMT -5
A few quick takeaways from Mike’s presentation after listening to it. 1. Mannkind is working with a third party to get Afrezza classified as " ultra-acting" (i.e., its own class); 2. Mannkind will receive another $30 million milestone (plus low double digits royalties) on the second drug they are currently partnering with UT; 3. For Tre-T, Mannkind will receive $25 million milestone in 2019 and another $25 million milestone in 2020. 4. Tre-T’s target market is the whole market (inhale, oral and IV) and potentially “ best in class”. 5. Recapitalization is now complete. There will be no major debt due in the next 36 months. 6. Mannkind has prioritized another four drug candidates that will be further developed in the next 12-18 months. Mike also mentioned something about a (drug) launch every one or two years as a goal towards the end of the presentation. 7. One-drop trial results will be available “ shortly”. 8. Since Mannkind signed contracts with two major PBMs in 2018, they are now working to get local coverage and remove prior-authorizations with respect to these PBMs. 9. For Afrezza, there has been consistent growth since Mannkind launch (Jan. 2017) in numbers of writers (600 to 1100), market share (among Afrezza writers from 3.2% to 4.2%) and cartridge units. 10. Note that, since Mannkind has partnered with UT for two Technosphere drug candidates, in the slide listing the five year growth drivers for the company, Mannkind has added Technosphere Platform as the foundation of the growth drivers. It appears the trial results of Tre-T were really a boost of confidence to Mannkind in their belief of the Technosphere Platform’s potential. Mike referred to the reveal of the trial results as a “flip of the cards” (and the cards turn out to be very favorable). Question: Per item #4 above, does this mean that TreT could replace Remodulin (subcutaneous & IV), Tyvaso and Orenitram?
That represents collectively $1.23 Billion in sales in 2017. A low teens royalty (12%) on net sales would equal almost $150 million per year. And that is just on UTHR's existing revenues and does not include incremental market share a Best-in-Class drug would win. I had thought that IV and subcutaneous applications of Remodulin had more to do with the functional needs (i.e. long duration) and wouldn't be applicable to the TreT inhalable option. Very exciting. Yes, that is my impression from listening to what Mike said in his presentation. Mike actually specifically mentioned how much annual sales each of these products generates. I think that makes sense as all of these different products are actually based on the same active ingredient (Treprostinil, which also forms the basis of Tre-T), with the main differences among them being how they are administered. This article ( A Comprehensive Review of Treprostinil Pharmacokinetics via Four Routes of Administration) provides a brief summary and comparison of these products. Interestingly, $150 million per year (for Mannkind) is also the number I have in my mind. I think that is a realistic number if Tre-T indeed turns out to be "best-in-class". In this video, Martine Rothblatt noted that the annual revenue of the PAH drugs of UT is about $1.5 billion and that UT is paying $150 million royalty annually to GSK (because UT originally got the prototype of the PAH drugs from GSK for $25,000 + a 10% royalty). Talking about investment returns of GSK on this!
|
|