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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 31, 2014 19:00:40 GMT -5
Joey, I'd never heard of a tri-star top before... but apparently that's a case of the stars being misaligned. Seems like if the market keeps getting hammered, any stock specific support levels for MNKD may be kind of meaningless. Do you have any thoughts on what we might see with MNKD. Actually I'm looking to pick up more shares, so wondering how much of a dip we could get if the broader sell-off continues. I attached a link in that post last friday, it illustrates a candlestick formation of 3 "dojis" so it looks on the chart like 3 stars. It's a rare occurance to have it because essentially it's 3 days where the trading ends up near unchanged and shows quite a bit of indecision at the end of a prolonged trend usually followed by a reversal of that trend. Can be either at the top or the bottom of that trend signaling its end and the turning point for a reversal the other way. In the S&P's case last week it looked to me like it was close enough for that pattern...thus the alert and position taken for the SEP bear spread along with the cheap weekly puts ...as far as how it relates with MNKD, I still think there will be strong support from 8.08 to 8.20 if there continues to be downside pressure (which I continue to expect) with the overall market. I actually purchased some risk reversal options towards the close today selling the Jan 8 puts and buying the Jan 10 calls...the price is low enough for me without waiting for the absolute low in share price due to the nature of the fact that an announcement could come at any time and to wait for .15-.25 more to the downside would most likely not translate to much relative to risking not executing the trade today. I once heard a very successful investor/trader say I may not catch the exact bottoms and tops but if I'm close enough on either of them I'm a very happy person  ...as per what the Behavioral Economist alluded to in his excellent article when he advised the shorts that this may very well be close to the point they should consider covering before facing some substantial losses. Having said that, I believe there was a fair amount of the buys today which were shares being covered, jmho based on shares available to borrow ticking up....some may have been from forced long liquidation but I sense from the price action that was met with some covering. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 1, 2014 11:20:55 GMT -5
Joey, I'd never heard of a tri-star top before... but apparently that's a case of the stars being misaligned. Seems like if the market keeps getting hammered, any stock specific support levels for MNKD may be kind of meaningless. Do you have any thoughts on what we might see with MNKD. Actually I'm looking to pick up more shares, so wondering how much of a dip we could get if the broader sell-off continues. I attached a link in that post last friday, it illustrates a candlestick formation of 3 "dojis" so it looks on the chart like 3 stars. It's a rare occurance to have it because essentially it's 3 days where the trading ends up near unchanged and shows quite a bit of indecision at the end of a prolonged trend usually followed by a reversal of that trend. Can be either at the top or the bottom of that trend signaling its end and the turning point for a reversal the other way. In the S&P's case last week it looked to me like it was close enough for that pattern...thus the alert and position taken for the SEP bear spread along with the cheap weekly puts ... as far as how it relates with MNKD, I still think there will be strong support from 8.08 to 8.20 if there continues to be downside pressure (which I continue to expect) with the overall market. I actually purchased some risk reversal options towards the close today selling the Jan 8 puts and buying the Jan 10 calls...the price is low enough for me without waiting for the absolute low in share price due to the nature of the fact that an announcement could come at any time and to wait for .15-.25 more to the downside would most likely not translate to much relative to risking not executing the trade today. I once heard a very successful investor/trader say I may not catch the exact bottoms and tops but if I'm close enough on either of them I'm a very happy person ...as per what the Behavioral Economist alluded to in his excellent article when he advised the shorts that this may very well be close to the point they should consider covering before facing some substantial losses. Having said that, I believe there was a fair amount of the buys today which were shares being covered, jmho based on shares available to borrow ticking up....some may have been from forced long liquidation but I sense from the price action that was met with some covering. For those that have been waiting to add or enter a position on MNKD the downside target 8.08 has been met and the broader market looks like it should find some decent support near the 1900 area for the S&P. Can it go lower, always nothing is an exact science when it comes to the markets but this is an area of testing strong support that I would suspect when looked back was a great buying opportunity for those that have been waiting to enter and definitely for the shorts. For those that know options, this looks like a very inexpensive way to gain some decent leverage if you don't want to pay the cost of owning the shares outright. Please note that options come with high risk and the possibility of total loss so only those that understand them should be utilizing them. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 1, 2014 11:42:42 GMT -5
And another "IMHO" recommendation on options if someone new to them is considering at this point. As we've seen with Mannkind, dates of anticipated events can change. If you're using call options, probably wise to go out a bit longer than you anticipate would be the worst case if the bet is predicated on an event occurring.
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Post by suebeeee1 on Aug 1, 2014 14:34:20 GMT -5
Do you really think that Mannkind is subject to technical trading when, in fact, any price will be dependent upon the terms of a buyout or partnership? There are so many balls being juggled up in the air right now, I think all bets in regards to technicals are off the table.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 1, 2014 15:27:44 GMT -5
Do you really think that Mannkind is subject to technical trading when, in fact, any price will be dependent upon the terms of a buyout or partnership? There are so many balls being juggled up in the air right now, I think all bets in regards to technicals are off the table. Sue, nice to see you here and partaking in the discussions. You should read this thread from the beginning and you will see my comments regarding your post as to my thoughts about TA with MNKD . Having said that, so far it's playing out pretty much to the tee . If you think about it we've already had 3 binary events over the past year ...phase III outcome last Aug., Adcom in April, and most recently FDA approval and to me it has traded technically before during and after all 3. |
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Post by gamblerjag on Aug 1, 2014 15:38:40 GMT -5
Suebee.. I agreed.. when you have a Company that is going through this process; IMO technical are out!!!
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 1, 2014 16:08:05 GMT -5
Suebee.. I agreed.. when you have a Company that is going through this process; IMO technical are out!!! You might just be talking about different things. The support that Joey had predicted certainly seems to be real. Obviously nothing based on technical analysis of past movement is going to capture a dramatic change in underlying reality such as a binary event or a partnership announcement. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 4, 2014 14:22:15 GMT -5
Coming into the close here are some numbers to watch (for those who watch on a daily basis lol), friday's high was 8.42 and the low was 8.02 so right now as I type we're at the highs of the day but so far this is still considered "an inside day" unless we top the high of friday. The S&P is bouncing nicely off the 1925 support level today which is giving a nice lift to the overall market. The XBI is currently trading back above its 50d ma, last week it came within a hair of closing the gap left on 7/22 so remains to be seen if that still remains a magnet. Will update after the close.
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Post by chauffe00 on Aug 4, 2014 17:53:05 GMT -5
where is the update Joey? 6-8 weeks away |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 4, 2014 18:28:52 GMT -5
where is the update Joey? 6-8 weeks away So we reached a high of 8.37 (remember 8.35-38 on the way down was a short term support area so wouldn't be surprising to see the climb today stall there) low today was 8.05, therefore, neither a higher high or lower low were made compared to friday. Also total volume today was nothing to write home about (but there was some good buying on decent volume in the last hour of trading) so where does that leave us heading into the rest of the week? Would like to see some follow through with a pick up in volume tomorrow or wed., two indicators show inflection points as slow stochastics have crossed over from deep oversold levels...the other indicator ADX/DMI see link for explanation: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Average_directional_movement_index shows that the -DI (negative directional indicator) didn't get much change today and still lies above the ADX line showing that today's move didn't have much effect (which is also where the highs and lows day over day didn't have any meaningful support of an overall trend change)...however, it lies just above the ADX line and another day or two of positive follow through could end up nudging a cross of the two. In summary, even though it was nice to have a lift off the support lows today, not convinced just yet that it won't retest it before the end of the week. Still believe at this time the 8.08 area should hold support after another possible test IMO. |
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Post by chauffe00 on Aug 4, 2014 22:34:36 GMT -5
where is the update Joey? 6-8 weeks away So we reached a high of 8.37 (remember 8.35-38 on the way down was a short term support area so wouldn't be surprising to see the climb today stall there) low today was 8.05, therefore, neither a higher high or lower low were made compared to friday. Also total volume today was nothing to write home about (but there was some good buying on decent volume in the last hour of trading) so where does that leave us heading into the rest of the week? Would like to see some follow through with a pick up in volume tomorrow or wed., two indicators show inflection points as slow stochastics have crossed over from deep oversold levels...the other indicator ADX/DMI see link for explanation: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Average_directional_movement_index shows that the -DI (negative directional indicator) didn't get much change today and still lies above the ADX line showing that today's move didn't have much effect (which is also where the highs and lows day over day didn't have any meaningful support of an overall trend change)...however, it lies just above the ADX line and another day or two of positive follow through could end up nudging a cross of the two. In summary, even though it was nice to have a lift off the support lows today, not convinced just yet that it won't retest it before the end of the week. Still believe at this time the 8.08 area should hold support after another possible test IMO. I wasnt able to see the trades but i did notice a jump in the final hour I saw we were at 4 mil or so at around 3 something and by the close we ended at 5 mil??? I'm sure they will take it down at some point but it was nice to see some upward traction today - thanks for the input!!!  |
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Post by mnkd4ever on Aug 5, 2014 9:48:00 GMT -5
Don't know if this is the right thread for this, but I have about 20 Aug 16 MNKD calls @7.00. Would you gurus keep them or roll them into a date further out.
Thanks
Dave
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 5, 2014 11:09:34 GMT -5
Don't know if this is the right thread for this, but I have about 20 Aug 16 MNKD calls @7.00. Would you gurus keep them or roll them into a date further out. Thanks Dave We've constantly had unexpected delays. I have small amount of out of the money calls (in addition to pretty large share holding) which being out of the money I decided to go with Nov just to not have them evaporate if partnership takes longer than expected. Obviously having in the money is a somewhat different situation. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 5, 2014 11:37:38 GMT -5
Don't know if this is the right thread for this, but I have about 20 Aug 16 MNKD calls @7.00. Would you gurus keep them or roll them into a date further out. Thanks Dave Welcome to the board Dave, Without knowing your cost basis here are my thoughts fwiw, the risk IMO is currently weighted to the upside regarding s/p currently, the anticipated news expected before the expiry would lean to holding the current in the money position due to the fact in order to get the same amount of contracts rolled out you would have to move up in strike and the leverage you get currently with the time premium getting close to minimal at this point is going to be higher should we get a nice bump due to any news. You have to do what helps you sleep better at night so it's always a personal decision...me personally, I would hold them through monday or tuesday of next week and see how the anticipated news plays out, of course there is always the risk is that there is no news...so again whatever makes you more comfortable |
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Post by mnkd4ever on Aug 5, 2014 12:00:16 GMT -5
Thanks Joey - facts AND reason in the same post. No wonder you left YMB:)
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...as per what the Behavioral Economist alluded to in his excellent article when he advised the shorts that this may very well be close to the point they should consider covering before facing some substantial losses. Having said that, I believe there was a fair amount of the buys today which were shares being covered, jmho based on shares available to borrow ticking up....some may have been from forced long liquidation but I sense from the price action that was met with some covering.
