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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 5, 2014 12:12:07 GMT -5
So what are the TA tea leaves saying for market? and for MNKD? What S&P puts did/might you purchase? I had purchased weekly SPY puts on friday and closed that position this am close to the lows...still believe that we are in the topping process if it hasn't already topped last week...will re open weeklies if this bounce looks weak which it is looking to be at this point (so in other words will be trading from the bear side on any up legs). Longer term I purchased a bear spread for SEP buying the SPY 194 puts and selling the 182's against it for a 12 handle spread. As far as MNKD, if we have the correction I anticipate then could see us finishing this down leg with a nice test of the 8.08-8.20 breakout area post shareholder meeting from late May. At some point soon here I would expect that bottom and then a divergence between the two (MNKD and the broader market whereby the fundamentals and/or binary events will propel us to new highs in MNKD). Where else would one want to put their money in that has the potential that this does (other than some other up and coming biotechs) that is why the XBI and IBB have led the market higher the past two years and IMO will continue to do so with the innovative breakthroughs that keep occurring IMO. Initial short term support for S&P on this current weakness is 1955 which we got 7 pts. away from this am...suspect it will be visited before the week is done... if/when that is broken looking at 1925 afterwhich key and longer term support would target just under 1900 which would put us at a 5% correction....something a bit more serious and we would look at 1815 which would portend to be the 10% correction that many have been waiting for a long time. Guess we'll see how it plays out  So we are currently back at the 1925 support area of the S&P, I highlighted the divergence portion of the post as that is what you are starting to see regarding the XBI/MNKD with respect to the broader indices today. The relative strength of how they are holding up compared to the rest of the market shows where the money is rotating into...biotech = healthcare = defensive sector as well. I wrote about support/resistance levels and how it is likely they don't just get tested once...well as the broader market continues it's pullback if the second test of the 1925 area does not hold expect a test of 1898-1900. Should this occur it is highly likely MNKD will retest the 8 handle IMO, this should take place within the next one to two days at which point it will be set up for a run back up which coincides with the anticipated fundamental news again IMO. Other notables, VIX is still above 15 so anticipate more volatility with the broader markets, shares (MNKD) available to short rose quite a bit this am (IB shows 1.1m available from 200k pre open)...so they covered some early and have some ammo for another run to support. My guess it that they give it one more good attempt to knock some shares free before friday/monday...I would love nothing more than a very strong joint announcement with one (or two) of the premier global BP's to put a huge nail in their coffin!  |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 5, 2014 14:50:56 GMT -5
Joey,
From a TA perspective is the key that we close above the 1925 point? or does the intraday trading have more significance?
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 5, 2014 15:52:31 GMT -5
Joey, From a TA perspective is the key that we close above the 1925 point? or does the intraday trading have more significance? The close is significant and we did close below, however even though the close was lower than last friday it looks like the RSI wasn't as weak as friday's so need to register that when looking at what I think will be the good possibility of the 1898-1900 support area which is basically "a stone's throw away" from the lows today. If we continue to see a divergence in the RSI with the selloff then it would make that (1898-1900 area) closer to a short to intermediate bottom IMO. Also notice how the XBI finished relative to the broader market today, there are a lot of biotechs that finished in the green on my screen. We (MNKD) touched a low today at 8.09 which is a higher low than yesterday and had a high of 8.42 which matched last fridays high and was higher than yesterday's intraday high, so all in all an expected range bound day between support and the price pivot area at 8.37. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 6, 2014 9:58:03 GMT -5
First hour of trading in and a nice volume of just at 2m shares with a steady pace of buying. As far as the S&P looks like a flattish day unfolding as it consolidates here at lower levels, most likely bounded/capped at resistance of 1925 area for now. XBI continues to show excellent relative strength to the overall market. They tried on the news to shake some shares after hours yesterday only to have it close near the highs...short interest is now at 400k shares avail. down from the 1.1m at the close yesterday (from IB)...so looks like some was used to cap the morning upside pressure. The bond market continues to show buying pressure with the 10yr yield dropping to lows not seen for awhile...this is caused by a flight to safety from the equity markets until global unrest subsides...the reason I bring that up is it is seen as defensive in nature thus the parallel with the funds flowing into the healthcare sector. This should give you a read of continued weakness in overall equities until you see this type of action reverse. If it continues it is basically foreshadowing a slowing down in economic pace. Again how does this relate to MNKD? Simple, MNKD as is other biotech and health care are limited to the effects of an economic slowdown which in turn makes them somewhat of a safe haven with the ability to still have growth potential despite a cyclical softening. Just things to keep an eye on going forward IMO. This could also aid in propelling the s/p as binary events continue to unfold as the fund managers look for continued growth relative to the economically sensitive sectors should a continued correction take hold...which remains to be seen.
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Post by zieg on Aug 6, 2014 10:28:47 GMT -5
JPP, Thank you for your technical analysis. I realize how dumb I am after reading your posts. It's actually refreshing (as I have so much to learn;) You bring so much to this board that was lacking on the other.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 6, 2014 11:25:46 GMT -5
JPP, Thank you for your technical analysis. I realize how dumb I am after reading your posts. It's actually refreshing (as I have so much to learn;) You bring so much to this board that was lacking on the other. Appreciate the comments Zieg, and also appreciate the platform that this board provides for others that bring so much to the "table". Glad to be able to contribute in some way, thanks again! -J |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 11, 2014 13:07:37 GMT -5
Ok, now that I got most of the phone calls out of the way lol (and I apologize if what I'm about to write is redundant to some other postings or articles that have been written this am from others)....here's the way I see it both fundamentally and technically speaking. Sanofi is everything we could have hoped for, a leading global pharmaceutical company without a real successful competing prandial alternative to Afrezza. Who else would you want marketing, selling, and educating the world's health care practitioners and hospitals, etc. then a company that has the connections they do due to their established relationships via one to the top selling Basal insulins. I can't think of anyone better, and that is the way Al thought of it...I am thrilled that he didn't go for the bigger up front payday from some competitors that would have shelved the product behind their own, etc. and if I had thought he would have done that I would never had stayed long or if I did I would have been out on the spike from such a deal. The highs from last week were 8.37-8.42 with fridays high @ 8.22...we've already filled the weekly gap with just the daily gap down to 8.22 to be filled (which I am glad is readily taking place) From my previous post in this thread I stated how the 8.08-8.20 area should act as solid support and the reasons why...well it did and we shot off it this morning with a gap over the 50d ma. So to come back and fill the daily gap is natural and actually welcomed at this point (in my eyes anyway). I wrote on last week about us visiting "six flags" this week with a huge pick up in volatility, well today will be nothing short of a roller coaster...I also wrote about the max open interest in the 9 strike expiration for this friday having the most pain for option holders...so it wouldn't surprise me to see the volatility center around 9 from now through friday. You can see all the negative articles (fully expected) that came out suggesting that the partnership agreement is a "sell out" job from Al...nothing could be further from the truth IMO, quite the opposite. Now what do the shorts do other than take advantage of some frustrated longs, the odds of any dilution have greatly diminished...leaving one less big source of covering unavailable for the foreseeable future. The next idea and most likely the last will be comparing SNY to PFE and the previous attempt at selling and marketing an inhalable insulin (of course WE know it's apples and oranges but they will continue to push that until sales numbers come in). In addition, keep in mind that a lot of investment houses will not initiate coverage until they can scoop up what they can at lower prices before coming out with targets etc. On the ones that have already been covering ie., RBC,Griffin, etc. I would imagine after todays conference call you will see either reaffirmations or upgrades now that the risk for the company has drastically diminished and there is a major partner in place. So going forward what does it look like after this week? I would go back to the initial 11-12 area and then 15/16 target as the next objective as the measured move from this current pullback. Again, for those that don't believe that TA is appropriate with a biotech going through it's binary events I would tend to agree but with the market cap of MNKD it has been very applicable and continues to be so. What a great day for diabetics around the world and we're all in a very minuscule way partly responsible through our continued convictions in AL and the company...you should all be celebrating |
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Post by otherottawaguy on Aug 11, 2014 13:46:43 GMT -5
Griffin Securities (Keith Markey) who was on the call asking questions about other things, just sent a note blessing the union. He reitterated his 12 month estimare at 16.25. Will repost the note when i get home.
OOG
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 11, 2014 13:52:18 GMT -5
.I also wrote about the max open interest in the 9 strike expiration for this friday having the most pain for option holders...so it wouldn't surprise me to see the volatility center around 9 from now through friday. You did? If only lizards paid more attention to warnings  Fortunately I have a lot of shares held since before adcom as well  Agree that this is great news for diabetics! Also, hopefully Mannkind will announce something about restarting oncology pipeline. The upfront money wasn't as much as I'd hoped, so I wonder what will happen in this area. Will they even mention it during CC? |
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Post by Chris-C on Aug 11, 2014 14:00:00 GMT -5
"Joey" Awesome post! It was very carefully reasoned and very useful for those of us who have no experience and knowledge in TA. I agree with your assessment about Al Mann. A class act who is focused on the right goals, driven by ethical and moral values and believes in the creation of real value is a rare breed these days. We need more like him.
For those of us who have held through 5 years of frustration, knowing some key pieces are now in place to create long term value helps me sleep easier. My 10K share stake is modest, but I believe in this company and I also believe this investment will turn out to be one of the best I have made. Like other worthwhile things in life, it takes resolve, due diligence, and patience.
Thanks for continuing to post informative perspectives.
Chris-C
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Post by 4Balance on Aug 11, 2014 14:06:25 GMT -5
Joey, today's volume (at last check) was just under 57 million shares. Do you know how many bought/sold...??
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 11, 2014 14:08:36 GMT -5
.I also wrote about the max open interest in the 9 strike expiration for this friday having the most pain for option holders...so it wouldn't surprise me to see the volatility center around 9 from now through friday. You did? If only lizards paid more attention to warnings Fortunately I have a lot of shares held since before adcom as well Agree that this is great news for diabetics! Also, hopefully Mannkind will announce something about restarting oncology pipeline. The upfront money wasn't as much as I'd hoped, so I wonder what will happen in this area. Will they even mention it during CC? Here's the link, it is at the very bottom after the open interest grids: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/1131/assuming-atm-intactAs opposed to Kevinmik who's thread on the other board titled something like is this the best that Greenhill could come up with after a year....I can tell you that the last time I had the same feeling and reaction to seeing it was Sanofi was when I saw Sam (Afrezzauser) get up to be the first public speaker at Adcom, I literally jumped out of my chair and couldn't contain my excitement (GWB can confirm this as we were watching it at 5a in my office conference room) as I knew from that point on the panel would be sold lock stock and barrel as I was from when I first read his posts. To me, what's much more important than the upfront fee that the clowns (AF, etc.) are pouncing on is the fact that no other BP could come close to SNY's ability to get sales and marketing up to speed as quick as they're worldwide staff can....it comes down to one of my favorite sayings (I've meant to put this in my tag line so don't steal it lol) "Experience isn't expensive.....it's priceless" |
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Post by 4Balance on Aug 11, 2014 14:09:11 GMT -5
Doggone it...Thomas Reuters has (today) downgraded MNKD from Buy to Hold.
Any ideas why? Price volatility? Wants more time to assess the deal..?? Something else..??
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Post by bradleysbest on Aug 11, 2014 14:16:40 GMT -5
For whatever reason(s) , people are trying their best to keep mnkd down!
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 12, 2014 14:24:34 GMT -5
Joey, what do you see from the TA perspective after today's roller coaster ride?
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