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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 12, 2014 16:43:07 GMT -5
Joey, what do you see from the TA perspective after today's roller coaster ride? DBC with support broken it opens the door for the 200d which is currently at 6.76 so with today's low we got within .46 of it...also of note is on the highs yesterday of 10.08 we couldn't hold above the 50d ma @ 9.68 and had a complete reversal...short term the damage is done, would like to see how we finish the week and look at the weekly chart to gain a better read on some ranges and numbers for those looking for shorter term. Ironically, one year ago this coming thursday 8/14 we had a similar reversal after the trial results came out...the shorts knew then also that there would be some down time before any catalysts....the difference this time is back then there was far more uncertainty of MNKD getting approval, etc. today about one year later the uncertainty becomes how will sales do? I still don't know how they (shorts) get out of their position other than very slowly unwinding it from here IMO, and the risk is much more heavily weighted to the upside with any surprises than it is to the downside...thus my thread on where would you put 100k for a better return than the S&P for the next 52 weeks  |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 12, 2014 18:58:44 GMT -5
I look forward to further insight as to where we may bottom.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 16, 2014 16:11:45 GMT -5
Looking forward to an update when you get a chance. Also, what do you think of the IBB chart... where might the sector be headed and how might that play into share price of MNKD? |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 16, 2014 18:56:42 GMT -5
Looking forward to an update when you get a chance. Also, what do you think of the IBB chart... where might the sector be headed and how might that play into share price of MNKD? DBC, will have it up by tomorrow eve., in laws 60th wed. anniv. lots of my wife's family in town so took a page out of "my pizza man's" book and spending the weekend pretty much offline, you know...happy wife, happy life lol, do have some good stuff though including a nice pair trade that I like going forward. Give you a hint, it's in the BP sector... the last one I recommended netted some pretty nice returns, shouldn't be hard to find it (the last one) |
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Post by jpg on Aug 17, 2014 2:42:29 GMT -5
Long MNKD, short Novo Nordisk?
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 17, 2014 23:43:00 GMT -5
Long MNKD, short Novo Nordisk? The last paired trade I had recommended was back in Jan. when ORMP was near its highs close to 30 and MNKD was in the high 5's, I had stated that the elevators would cross which took place and ORMP hit 7 area in late May, and you know MNKD hit their high of 11.48 late Jun. The next one related to this scenario would be the latter half of your guess and pairing it against MNKD would be fine but I would rather hold MNKD long in a class by itself. The new paired trade I am referring to is long SNY and short NVO. See definition of a paired trade here: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pairs_trade. The idea behind this one is that NVO has outperformed SNY and meets the true definition of a pairs trade see finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=1y&s=SNY&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=nvo&ql=1 You can see up to this point in the last year (specifically since mid Dec. '13) that NVO has outperformed SNY by approx. 30%, the idea of the pairs trade is that the two companies will eventually revert back to the mean. In this particular case fundamentally SNY looks to have more upside potential in the next 6-18 mos. If you look at NVO, its portfolio is heavily in the diabetes care area see 6 mos earnings make up here on pg. 5 www.novonordisk.com/images/investors/investor_presentations/2014/interim_report/PR140807_H1_UK.pdfSNY now has our bazooka in its arsenal along with the complimentary therapies to go along with it. Not only that, but it has a much more diverse portfolio with some very promising potential. I look for SNY to move up nicely in anticipation of the expected results while NVO will be vulnerable to hits in market share and revenue growth. Ok, onto MNKD and the week that was. The complete reversal off the recent highs ended the week with a close just above the 200d ma. So where do we go from here near term, and long term? For purposes of discussion I will consider near term the next 3 mos. and longer term greater than 3 mos. Contrary to those that have mentioned the 3-4 dollar area, I don't see that happening. This period from a fundamental standpoint reminds me of the period between the post 2nd CRL and the Aug. '13 phase III trial results. I started to accumulate MNKD very heavily in the late Nov '12 timeframe. Why did I do that? I was confident from a risk/reward stand point of tying up my capital for what I anticipated would be pretty decent return on my investment (notice I use the term investment rather than trade). I knew this meant locking up that capital for a period of 8-9 mos. The reason for the timing of this was (borrowing a phrase from our friend Dr. Tran) Mr. Market does not wait for events to happen but rather anticipates 6 or more months out. In other words I could have waited say till Mar. or Apr. but at just under the $2.00 mark felt like it was a very opportune time to start buying my core holding. As it turned out into Dec./Jan. we started to see accumulation take hold and the pps steadily grind up between the 2-3 dollar area into Mar. Once we broke the 3 area it was off to the races up to 8 (the high pivot area I have mentioned previously). Back to Mr. Market, although MNKD should trade independent of the market unfortunately (or fortunately depending on where you stand) there are financial instruments and economics that are intertwined with individual stocks. Those being options and margin credit respectively along with ETF's that are tied to sectors. When the market takes a hit like it did in late July into August, that was a bad combination with the heavy options that were expiring into the third friday of Aug. You could say that it was the perfect storm combined with the extreme sentiment that had built up in anticipation of a partnership and/or buyout scenario. That ultimately led to the huge volume reversal and current down leg that has resulted in probing the 200d ma. There was a thread that talked about MNKD being oversold back at the 8 pivot point. One thing that technicians know is that stocks can be overbought and oversold for longer than one might think, and can get more oversold and overbought...this ultimately leads to the term IMO that the "pendulum can swing too far". So this leads me to your question DBC, "where do you think the bottom is" and statements from you and others of looking for re entry points, etc. So with that in mind, lets take a look at the current landscape and where we are on the charts. The current landscape after last week says that there was some decent long liquidation, how that was met with any covering from the outstanding short interest remains to be seen (looking forward to see on 8/26 how SI remains after the recent surge in volume ending last week). One thing is for sure, there were a lot of long options that expired worthless so kudos to those who sold them covered or not. What I do know (and everyone else including the short positions) is that the primary risk factors are gone (unknowns: approval, partner, and solvency issues including dilution possibilities) So going back to what I mentioned regarding this reminding me of the time frame of late 2012 and phase III trial results. With the primary risk factors out of the way and a huge short position most likely still remaining this is ultimately why I don't expect to see the 3-4 area again. You have wanting buyers at lower levels, you have a nice "put" or floor with the shorts and at some point the last argument that the shorts have (sales) will vanish. Last week felt so much like a capitulation, between the boards forums and pps action, not to mention the amount of phone calls and texts along with emails I rec'd and the sour sentiment that was prevalent...I would have to say we are closer to a bottom than most think. If the broader market has put in its highs as I had called the absolute top on 7/25 (remember the tri star doji post) there could be continued pressure through any substantial market correction. However, most that have "gun powder" remaining will be looking to continue to pick up shares at any prices under here which will limit any downside IMO. I follow the XBI as opposed to the IBB (I believe that DBC asked this last week) and it (XBI) peaked at highs in Feb. and corrected nicely into Apr. (high of 172.52 to low of 115.31) and has moved up very well from there and trading comfortably above its 50d ma. It faces near term resistance right here in the 158 area so wouldn't be surprised to see it pull back a little with another drop of the broader markets as they continue to test support levels. I am still a firm believer that the "renaissance" going on in the biotech and medical arenas (of which we are very much a part of) will ultimately continue to serve as the "horse" of sectors that will keep this country going forward. Fortunately, we have had Al, but there are younger versions out there , the strides that have been made in oncology are tremendous along with the next generation of "statins" and stem cells etc., there are few other areas that I would want to be invested in currently in the markets IMO. Have a great week everyone! MNKD near term support/resistance 6.54 lower bb, 6.80 200d ma, 7.65 9d ema |
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Post by chauffe00 on Aug 18, 2014 15:20:36 GMT -5
Long MNKD, short Novo Nordisk? The last paired trade I had recommended was back in Jan. when ORMP was near its highs close to 30 and MNKD was in the high 5's, I had stated that the elevators would cross which took place and ORMP hit 7 area in late May, and you know MNKD hit their high of 11.48 late Jun. The next one related to this scenario would be the latter half of your guess and pairing it against MNKD would be fine but I would rather hold MNKD long in a class by itself. The new paired trade I am referring to is long SNY and short NVO. See definition of a paired trade here: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pairs_trade. The idea behind this one is that NVO has outperformed SNY and meets the true definition of a pairs trade see finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=1y&s=SNY&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=nvo&ql=1 You can see up to this point in the last year (specifically since mid Dec. '13) that NVO has outperformed SNY by approx. 30%, the idea of the pairs trade is that the two companies will eventually revert back to the mean. In this particular case fundamentally SNY looks to have more upside potential in the next 6-18 mos. If you look at NVO, its portfolio is heavily in the diabetes care area see 6 mos earnings make up here on pg. 5 www.novonordisk.com/images/investors/investor_presentations/2014/interim_report/PR140807_H1_UK.pdfSNY now has our bazooka in its arsenal along with the complimentary therapies to go along with it. Not only that, but it has a much more diverse portfolio with some very promising potential. I look for SNY to move up nicely in anticipation of the expected results while NVO will be vulnerable to hits in market share and revenue growth. Ok, onto MNKD and the week that was. The complete reversal off the recent highs ended the week with a close just above the 200d ma. So where do we go from here near term, and long term? For purposes of discussion I will consider near term the next 3 mos. and longer term greater than 3 mos. Contrary to those that have mentioned the 3-4 dollar area, I don't see that happening. This period from a fundamental standpoint reminds me of the period between the post 2nd CRL and the Aug. '13 phase III trial results. I started to accumulate MNKD very heavily in the late Nov '12 timeframe. Why did I do that? I was confident from a risk/reward stand point of tying up my capital for what I anticipated would be pretty decent return on my investment (notice I use the term investment rather than trade). I knew this meant locking up that capital for a period of 8-9 mos. The reason for the timing of this was (borrowing a phrase from our friend Dr. Tran) Mr. Market does not wait for events to happen but rather anticipates 6 or more months out. In other words I could have waited say till Mar. or Apr. but at just under the $2.00 mark felt like it was a very opportune time to start buying my core holding. As it turned out into Dec./Jan. we started to see accumulation take hold and the pps steadily grind up between the 2-3 dollar area into Mar. Once we broke the 3 area it was off to the races up to 8 (the high pivot area I have mentioned previously). Back to Mr. Market, although MNKD should trade independent of the market unfortunately (or fortunately depending on where you stand) there are financial instruments and economics that are intertwined with individual stocks. Those being options and margin credit respectively along with ETF's that are tied to sectors. When the market takes a hit like it did in late July into August, that was a bad combination with the heavy options that were expiring into the third friday of Aug. You could say that it was the perfect storm combined with the extreme sentiment that had built up in anticipation of a partnership and/or buyout scenario. That ultimately led to the huge volume reversal and current down leg that has resulted in probing the 200d ma. There was a thread that talked about MNKD being oversold back at the 8 pivot point. One thing that technicians know is that stocks can be overbought and oversold for longer than one might think, and can get more oversold and overbought...this ultimately leads to the term IMO that the "pendulum can swing too far". So this leads me to your question DBC, "where do you think the bottom is" and statements from you and others of looking for re entry points, etc. So with that in mind, lets take a look at the current landscape and where we are on the charts. The current landscape after last week says that there was some decent long liquidation, how that was met with any covering from the outstanding short interest remains to be seen (looking forward to see on 8/26 how SI remains after the recent surge in volume ending last week). One thing is for sure, there were a lot of long options that expired worthless so kudos to those who sold them covered or not. What I do know (and everyone else including the short positions) is that the primary risk factors are gone (unknowns: approval, partner, and solvency issues including dilution possibilities) So going back to what I mentioned regarding this reminding me of the time frame of late 2012 and phase III trial results. With the primary risk factors out of the way and a huge short position most likely still remaining this is ultimately why I don't expect to see the 3-4 area again. You have wanting buyers at lower levels, you have a nice "put" or floor with the shorts and at some point the last argument that the shorts have (sales) will vanish. Last week felt so much like a capitulation, between the boards forums and pps action, not to mention the amount of phone calls and texts along with emails I rec'd and the sour sentiment that was prevalent...I would have to say we are closer to a bottom than most think. If the broader market has put in its highs as I had called the absolute top on 7/25 (remember the tri star doji post) there could be continued pressure through any substantial market correction. However, most that have "gun powder" remaining will be looking to continue to pick up shares at any prices under here which will limit any downside IMO. I follow the XBI as opposed to the IBB (I believe that DBC asked this last week) and it (XBI) peaked at highs in Feb. and corrected nicely into Apr. (high of 172.52 to low of 115.31) and has moved up very well from there and trading comfortably above its 50d ma. It faces near term resistance right here in the 158 area so wouldn't be surprised to see it pull back a little with another drop of the broader markets as they continue to test support levels. I am still a firm believer that the "renaissance" going on in the biotech and medical arenas (of which we are very much a part of) will ultimately continue to serve as the "horse" of sectors that will keep this country going forward. Fortunately, we have had Al, but there are younger versions out there , the strides that have been made in oncology are tremendous along with the next generation of "statins" and stem cells etc., there are few other areas that I would want to be invested in currently in the markets IMO. Have a great week everyone! MNKD near term support/resistance 6.54 lower bb, 6.80 200d ma, 7.65 9d ema Great stuff! Thank you! |
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Post by mnholdem on Aug 30, 2014 5:46:18 GMT -5
Hey Joey! Anything new to share on the TA front? All I have is pretty simple stuff, but it's displaying an 85% probability of major rally with target of $10.27 while only 25% probably of continued price drop.
I'm also wondering if there's any truth to the story that the stock market generally gains steam after Labor Day. Speaking of which, enjoy your long holiday weekend.
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Post by cybergym66 on Aug 30, 2014 8:13:59 GMT -5
Hey Joey! Anything new to share on the TA front? All I have is pretty simple stuff, but it's displaying an 85% probability of major rally with target of $10.27 while only 25% probably of continued price drop. I'm also wondering if there's any truth to the story that the stock market generally gains steam after Labor Day. Speaking of which, enjoy your long holiday weekend. Looking at a 3 month chart of MNKD vs the IBB ETF I see MNKD is almost 40% lower than the IBB. This seems to suggest that MNKD could make correction to the IBB chart. A 20% correction would equal about $8.84. But w/o new information out of MNKD or Sanofi about Afrezza marketing, sales, etc. I'm not sure what moves the price up. As we've seen, even a Buy recommendation only caused a short term move up before shorts(?) pushed it back down. Instead I think w/o a catalysis we see the price float around the present price for a few more months until we get closer to a possible start of sales. When the details of the partnership get released, this could help the stock price especially if some bullish surprises come out of it. Just noticing the lack of posts on here recently kind of reflects the wait and see approach investors have with MNKD at the moment. |
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Post by mnholdem on Aug 30, 2014 19:54:30 GMT -5
It certainly seems to be a period where patience is essential.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 31, 2014 12:26:42 GMT -5
Hey Joey! Anything new to share on the TA front? All I have is pretty simple stuff, but it's displaying an 85% probability of major rally with target of $10.27 while only 25% probably of continued price drop. I'm also wondering if there's any truth to the story that the stock market generally gains steam after Labor Day. Speaking of which, enjoy your long holiday weekend. Enjoy yours as well, will post tomorrow eve. been busy all of last week with some moving etc. and just taking it easy this holiday weekend. I did have a long detailed post which talked about the Intermune deal right after it happened but it got wiped out and I got frustrated...sure wish there was an autosave feature on proboards |
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Post by BD on Aug 31, 2014 17:48:05 GMT -5
Here's the deal with long posts, and minimizing the chance of losing them: If you've been typing for a while, just type Contrl-A Control-C. This will copy the entire contents of your current buffer into the clipboard. If something glitchy causes your editing session to disappear (and there are lots of ways to type the wrong key at the wrong time that might cause that), just start over and press Control-V to paste back everything that was in saved the last time you did a Control-C.
This is what I do. Every few paragraphs, I just copy all I have so far into the clipboard.
The only way you'll lose it, after that, is if your entire machine just crashes. And hopefully none of us put up with machines that do that on any regular basis, lol.
(Note: of course, these keystrokes apply to a PC. If you're on some different type of machine, I'm sure there are equivalents...)
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Post by seanismorris on Sept 1, 2014 11:23:41 GMT -5
Bearish TA video for MNKD, but interesting. eqtrade.com/mannkind-corp-mnkd-stock-chart-technical-analysis-for-8-27-14/I agree we don't want to break the 200 day. I bought 1000 shares when we bounced off it (bullish). $8 seems reasonable as a point needed to break to return to more upward momentum, right now we are drifting (consolidating) between the 200 day and below $8. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 2, 2014 7:40:26 GMT -5
With the summer vacation period over and most trading desks at full strength, lets see where we go from here as volume should come back to more normal levels for the overall market. The last two weeks MNKD has bounced from the 200d support level with two higher highs and higher lows bars on the weekly charts, during this time frame the 200d has crept up to 6.91 which coincides now with the low of the first weekly bar (8/18) after the sell off post partnership announcement. Opening the week, the share price sits smack in the middle (9d ema)of the tightening bollinger bands @ 7.35. So for the week lets peg support at 6.90 area and resistance at the 20d ma of 7.55 to the upper bb area sitting today at 7.63. The XBI sits a stones throw from its all time high of 172.52 after coming within 8pts of it last week. Relative strength in this index continues to be very telling of the sector and I would suspect that as mentioned by Cybergym above with his reference to the IBB that at some point MNKD will be playing catch up. Available shares to borrow is now back under the 500k mark at Interactive Brokers as it shows 400k available. IMO the shorts have to be disappointed that the sp has held resiliently above the 200d ma. as their position increased into the week ending 8/15. I suspect we will see a decline in SI for the two weeks ending 8/29 and that is what had lent support to the sp the last two weeks coupled with some new buying. Anyone initiate the pair trade I mentioned back on 8/17? NVO opened 8/18 @ 44.82 currently @ 45.30, SNY opened 8/18 @ 53.11 currently @ 54.75...lets see if this divergence continues Have a great week all! |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Sept 2, 2014 15:34:47 GMT -5
Anyone initiate the pair trade I mentioned back on 8/17? NVO opened 8/18 @ 44.82 currently @ 45.30, SNY opened 8/18 @ 53.11 currently @ 54.75...lets see if this divergence continues Have a great week all! I bought some SNY right after the partnership deal and a little more when you recommended the pair, though I didn't initiate a short on NVO. |
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