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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 2, 2014 16:38:10 GMT -5
Anyone initiate the pair trade I mentioned back on 8/17? NVO opened 8/18 @ 44.82 currently @ 45.30, SNY opened 8/18 @ 53.11 currently @ 54.75...lets see if this divergence continues  Have a great week all! I bought some SNY right after the partnership deal and a little more when you recommended the pair, though I didn't initiate a short on NVO. SNY is flirting with all time highs which it made April/May of '13, I can see a target in the 72-75 area once it clears the 55-56 (previous highs)....technically it looks like it has a couple of nice bullish formations but it has to clear that area and I'm suspecting it will. NVO has had a helluva run but having it's majority of revenue come from one singular area it is vulnerable to any "better mousetraps" that may come along, today alone they announced they were discontinuing their efforts with inflammatory diseases see link seekingalpha.com/news/1961765-novo-stops-development-activities-in-inflammatory-disordersyou have to believe that the competition is going to ramp up between the two entities and SNY has a lot of other areas that are potential growth engines to fall back on as well. I picture an eventual spread between the two going from what was approx. 8+ to somewhere close to 40 (SNY @ 70+ and NVO @ 30ish) in 2-3yrs. IMO. Either way just the fact that you went long SNY should end up with you smiling as well. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Sept 14, 2014 12:43:23 GMT -5
joeypotsandpans... how are things looking now that another week has passed and we've closed below 200 day SMA three days in a row, albeit without large volume? What are our support levels you feel important?
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 15, 2014 10:59:26 GMT -5
joeypotsandpans... how are things looking now that another week has passed and we've closed below 200 day SMA three days in a row, albeit without large volume? What are our support levels you feel important? DBC, with the weekly close below the 200d ma the near term support levels are just under 6 (5.92 the post adcom low on 4/15), your statement about "albeit without large volume" speaks volumes as you take a look at this from the IB site: Symbol: MNKD Availability: 10'000 Exchanges: NASDAQ Also, BofNY Mellon/Pershing has none available to lend, so I imagine you will start seeing the calls from the brokerages go out this week asking for shares to borrow, don't be surprised if you see posts regarding same. So again the short side is using everything they can and rather than any major long liquidation the shorts are again raising their position as they continue to put pressure when the market itself is weak. I would venture to say at this point the next huge volume move will be an upside one as we remain in this quiet period. Have a great week! |
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Post by ezrasfund on Sept 15, 2014 11:35:46 GMT -5
I have been adding Jan '15 $4 calls with almost no premium, and have converted all of the shares in my trading account (as opposed to my long term holdings of MNKD) to these deep in the money calls to increase my effective share count, cash on hand and "dry powder". Why not? I would like to hear any opinions on why this is a bad strategy.
The real question is why has the share price dropped so much. Going through the looking glass to the short side, I would say that uncertainty (for the shorts), in the form of a possible buyout, which was their worst case scenario, has been removed. They know that there is now no impending big announcement. It also appears that there is no big buyer in the wings looking to invest $100 million or more and buy a significant stake in MNKD. It seems that the price will continue to drop until it finds a place where significant buyers are ready to step in. The uncertainty remains for the longs in the form of HSR (trivial?), ramp up, and sales. MannKind and now Sanofi still must execute a complex plan perfectly.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Sept 15, 2014 14:18:59 GMT -5
The uncertainty remains for the longs in the form of HSR (trivial?), ramp up, and sales. MannKind and now Sanofi still must execute a complex plan perfectly. It would seem there is no risk in HSR, unless I'm missing something. Is there potentially something about the MNKD-SNY deal that is different than all the other deals between biotech and BP partners? The second sentence seems to imply that the current price is a "priced to perfection" value. I would argue it isn't. Many of us longs believe that the perfection scenario is execution where Afrezza rapidly grabs significant market share away from existing prandials AND expands the market for prandials. That scenario would certainly justify a much higher share price. The current share price would seem to only anticipate mediocre execution and rather slow adoption. |
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Post by ezrasfund on Sept 15, 2014 14:44:01 GMT -5
No, what I mean to say is that the uncertainty is on the long side of the equation. Perfect execution of the marketing and sales ramp up will mean a much higher price, especially if strong sales are reported. But until such time there is still a credible short thesis that something will go wrong with the execution of the marketing plan and acceptance by doctors and patients.
(I agree that HSR should be a trivial issue, but I am asking if anyone sees any potential problems. I would define myself as a political liberal, but still say that where the government is involved anything is possible.)
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 15, 2014 17:01:23 GMT -5
No, what I mean to say is that the uncertainty is on the long side of the equation. Perfect execution of the marketing and sales ramp up will mean a much higher price, especially if strong sales are reported. But until such time there is still a credible short thesis that something will go wrong with the execution of the marketing plan and acceptance by doctors and patients. (I agree that HSR should be a trivial issue, but I am asking if anyone sees any potential problems. I would define myself as a political liberal, but still say that where the government is involved anything is possible.) I would substitute the word weak (and that is a generous word) for credible but that's just me....although I'm just going off all their other "credible thesis" ie., never will get approved, never will get a partnership, etc. etc. right up there with Lily's thesis on ORMP. |
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Post by ezrasfund on Sept 15, 2014 17:08:03 GMT -5
I am not buying their thesis, credible or weak, but someone must be buying it, or some other idea. But what else? Maybe they're just playing with house money after DNDN.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 22, 2014 11:15:11 GMT -5
joeypotsandpans... how are things looking now that another week has passed and we've closed below 200 day SMA three days in a row, albeit without large volume? What are our support levels you feel important? DBC, with the weekly close below the 200d ma the near term support levels are just under 6 ( 5.92 the post adcom low on 4/15), your statement about "albeit without large volume" speaks volumes as you take a look at this from the IB site: Symbol: MNKD Availability: 10'000 Exchanges: NASDAQ Also, BofNY Mellon/Pershing has none available to lend, so I imagine you will start seeing the calls from the brokerages go out this week asking for shares to borrow, don't be surprised if you see posts regarding same. So again the short side is using everything they can and rather than any major long liquidation the shorts are again raising their position as they continue to put pressure when the market itself is weak. I would venture to say at this point the next huge volume move will be an upside one as we remain in this quiet period. Have a great week! so here we are at the post Adcom low area, we touched 5.93 and bounced back to 6 fairly quickly...again on a weak broader market they were able to put the pressure on. I suspect they will try and break the post Adcom low, whether it can be sustained or they can break it remains to be seen....as an FYI I recently listed a property of mine to liquidate the gains and roll into additional MNKD/SNY as I believe the potential appreciation is far greater on the shares than it will be for the housing market in the next 12 mos. So if it hits the treadmill here for a little while (or at least until I sell the property it wouldn't upset me |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Sept 22, 2014 11:23:07 GMT -5
Picked some up at 5.96. I'm a nibbler. I'd sell a house to buy a bunch... except for the fact lizards really prefer living indoors heading into winter |
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Post by mnkdorbust on Sept 22, 2014 12:39:52 GMT -5
I'm a nibbler as well and picked up some more at $5.98. I'd sure like to see it head north but also accumulating here and there.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Oct 1, 2014 14:37:06 GMT -5
DBC, with the weekly close below the 200d ma the near term support levels are just under 6 ( 5.92 the post adcom low on 4/15), your statement about "albeit without large volume" speaks volumes as you take a look at this from the IB site: Symbol: MNKD Availability: 10'000 Exchanges: NASDAQ Also, BofNY Mellon/Pershing has none available to lend, so I imagine you will start seeing the calls from the brokerages go out this week asking for shares to borrow, don't be surprised if you see posts regarding same. So again the short side is using everything they can and rather than any major long liquidation the shorts are again raising their position as they continue to put pressure when the market itself is weak. I would venture to say at this point the next huge volume move will be an upside one as we remain in this quiet period. Have a great week! so here we are at the post Adcom low area, we touched 5.93 and bounced back to 6 fairly quickly... again on a weak broader market they were able to put the pressure on. I suspect they will try and break the post Adcom low, whether it can be sustained or they can break it remains to be seen....as an FYI I recently listed a property of mine to liquidate the gains and roll into additional MNKD/SNY as I believe the potential appreciation is far greater on the shares than it will be for the housing market in the next 12 mos. So if it hits the treadmill here for a little while (or at least until I sell the property it wouldn't upset me Breached the post Adcom low, filled gap left from the high of 3/28 (5.75) and low of 4/15 (5.92 post Adcom low)...pretty washed out at this point, my opinion above still stands btw. |
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Post by bighaus89 on Oct 3, 2014 10:39:57 GMT -5
Is something big about to happen? This is pure speculation, but this week's setup looks very similar to big events in the past. August 14th 2013, April 2nd 2014, June 30th 2014 for example. I'm not sure what news the company would have coming up that we don't already know/expecting.
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Post by cybergym66 on Oct 3, 2014 10:57:48 GMT -5
Is something big about to happen? This is pure speculation, but this week's setup looks very similar to big events in the past. August 14th 2013, April 2nd 2014, June 30th 2014 for example. I'm not sure what news the company would have coming up that we don't already know/expecting. 1) SNY announces they're buying MNKD stock 2) SNY announces EU Submission for Afrezza 3) MNKD announces pain relief Technosphere product 4) We hear (finally) from MNKD about ...(at this point ANYTHING positive would be nice.)..hiring a PR company! (Think of the cost for one vs how much Al, Matt, others have lost since the price crashed. PR company would be CHEAP). Any others? |
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Post by bighaus89 on Oct 3, 2014 11:01:25 GMT -5
Good points. I sometimes forget that many investors interested in MNKD do not do as much research as I do with these seemingly obvious scenarios that could occur.
I think SNY accumulating MNKD shares would be the biggest influence to short term pps.
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Have a great week all!
