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Post by cybergym66 on Oct 3, 2014 11:11:44 GMT -5
Good points. I sometimes forget that many investors interested in MNKD do not do as much research as I do with these seemingly obvious scenarios that could occur. I think SNY accumulating MNKD shares would be the biggest influence to short term pps. No, most investors don't do DD...SA latest hit piece shows that is the case. I think given SNY's past in buying partners stock, they will do the same with MNKD...question is more about when then if. I honestly think at these prices it would be REALLY inciting for them to do so now and with the HSR approved... |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Oct 3, 2014 11:57:27 GMT -5
Good points. I sometimes forget that many investors interested in MNKD do not do as much research as I do with these seemingly obvious scenarios that could occur. I think SNY accumulating MNKD shares would be the biggest influence to short term pps. No, most investors don't do DD...SA latest hit piece shows that is the case. I think given SNY's past in buying partners stock, they will do the same with MNKD...question is more about when then if. I honestly think at these prices it would be REALLY inciting for them to do so now and with the HSR approved... So given that you are asserting there is no doubt that they will buy, that implies that your research has shown that "SNY's past in buying partners stock" has been that it has in 100% of the cases? or close to it. Can you share your numbers. SNY has done an awful lot of partnerships over the years so that could be some useful info if they really have a very consistent track record of buying partner shares in the open market. |
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Post by cybergym66 on Oct 3, 2014 12:42:50 GMT -5
No, most investors don't do DD...SA latest hit piece shows that is the case. I think given SNY's past in buying partners stock, they will do the same with MNKD...question is more about when then if. I honestly think at these prices it would be REALLY inciting for them to do so now and with the HSR approved... So given that you are asserting there is no doubt that they will buy, that implies that your research has shown that "SNY's past in buying partners stock" has been that it has in 100% of the cases? or close to it. Can you share your numbers. SNY has done an awful lot of partnerships over the years so that could be some useful info if they really have a very consistent track record of buying partner shares in the open market. 100% of the cases...no. I'd say the percent of times is actually low. What I left out is other reasons I think it makes sense. ("Given" was more a "take past history", not "always") 1) At this low a price SNY could effectively pay the costs of the partnership by buying MNKD stock IF they truly believe Afrezza will succeed (I'm sure they have done their DD). I think many would agree that $10 is certainly a possible price within the next year. 2) SNY buying Regeneron's stock has similar paths with MNKD. 3) If SNY has a future plan to do a BO of MNKD then this would be a good time to significantly lower the cost of the BO. Doing a $20-25B BO in 3-4 years will be much cheaper if they own 20% (guess) of MNKD. These are my other reasons for SNY to buy MNKD stock. Hardly 100%, definitely going to happen, but what I'm hanging my hat on right now. If I can find other past partnerships where SNY bought stock I'll let you know. |
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Post by trenddiver on Oct 3, 2014 12:51:30 GMT -5
Unfilled gap at at $4.44. Wondering if that is where it is headed?
Trend
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Oct 6, 2014 13:34:16 GMT -5
Unfilled gap at at $4.44. Wondering if that is where it is headed? Trend Are there others that feel this is possible? Do we have any solid support levels? Would we really drop down to a market cap of $1.7B when there is a license deal with nearly a billion in milestone payments? |
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Post by trenddiver on Oct 7, 2014 1:28:53 GMT -5
There is some weak support at $5.00. Maybe a coincidence but the 200 week moving average is at $4.44.
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Post by cybergym66 on Oct 7, 2014 6:30:31 GMT -5
Unfilled gap at at $4.44. Wondering if that is where it is headed? Trend Are there others that feel this is possible? Do we have any solid support levels? Would we really drop down to a market cap of $1.7B when there is a license deal with nearly a billion in milestone payments? Since the partnership announcement and the subsequent failure for the stock price to go up, I've been wondering where's the support/bottom? Wishful thinking occurred each time we got close to $8 then $7 then $6. Now it looks like the next short effort will be to push the price below $5. Look at the movements at the opens for the last month or so. It seems to me at the open we either get a quick rise then an even harder push down or it just drops from a couple hundred thousand shares traded. The rest of the day the stock tries to recover but by the end of the day it closes lower for the day. This is a systematic effort and won't stop until there's reason to buy. Obviously sales will help, but if MNKD/SNY give weak numbers forecasts, this is just be more ammo for the shorts. It seems milestones are being discounted by the market since they aren't something which is continuous like sales. MNKD will have a better balance sheet, but that's not why investors should buy the stock. So if there's not sales to drive the price up, maybe some surprise news will help? It seems the rumors of Medtronic buying Technosphere has dried up. Maybe once Medtronic is done with the acquisition of Covidien (Corporate Inversion) (1st qtr 2015?) they will focus on Technosphere. Anyone else have additional rumor/information about this? |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Oct 7, 2014 9:16:36 GMT -5
Are there others that feel this is possible? Do we have any solid support levels? Would we really drop down to a market cap of $1.7B when there is a license deal with nearly a billion in milestone payments? Since the partnership announcement and the subsequent failure for the stock price to go up, I've been wondering where's the support/bottom? Wishful thinking occurred each time we got close to $8 then $7 then $6. Now it looks like the next short effort will be to push the price below $5. Look at the movements at the opens for the last month or so. It seems to me at the open we either get a quick rise then an even harder push down or it just drops from a couple hundred thousand shares traded. The rest of the day the stock tries to recover but by the end of the day it closes lower for the day. This is a systematic effort and won't stop until there's reason to buy. Obviously sales will help, but if MNKD/SNY give weak numbers forecasts, this is just be more ammo for the shorts. It seems milestones are being discounted by the market since they aren't something which is continuous like sales. MNKD will have a better balance sheet, but that's not why investors should buy the stock. So if there's not sales to drive the price up, maybe some surprise news will help? It seems the rumors of Medtronic buying Technosphere has dried up. Maybe once Medtronic is done with the acquisition of Covidien (Corporate Inversion) (1st qtr 2015?) they will focus on Technosphere. Anyone else have additional rumor/information about this? So at the close yesterday, there were 800k shares available to borrow to short at Interactive Brokers, right after the open this morning with the spike down this is what it shows: Symbol: MNKD Availability: 200'000 Exchanges: NASDAQ So in effect 30 minutes into trading 1.2mill. shares traded and 600k (50%) of it were borrowed short from IB, this lends directly to what I highlighted in bold in your statement as every time they sell it on the open it is from borrowed shares, margin calls continue as the price weakens to new lows, this will end when those shares that were bought on margin are gone and the last long that can't take it bails. As far as the gap that Trend refers to, it is really 4.60 (the high the day before Adcom (3/31), that day it opened at 4.44 but hit a high of 4.60. Whether or not it fills remains to be seen, if the broader market makes new lows for this correction (200d on SPX is down around 1903 area today) then the pressure on margin calls will continue on the market as a whole. I was talking with someone the other day that has followed Al since Minimed, he is a "friends and family" holder, he was actually excited at the potential prospects of buying in the 4's again, different perspectives are all relative depending which way you look at the glass  |
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Post by cybergym66 on Oct 7, 2014 9:39:28 GMT -5
Since the partnership announcement and the subsequent failure for the stock price to go up, I've been wondering where's the support/bottom? Wishful thinking occurred each time we got close to $8 then $7 then $6. Now it looks like the next short effort will be to push the price below $5. Look at the movements at the opens for the last month or so. It seems to me at the open we either get a quick rise then an even harder push down or it just drops from a couple hundred thousand shares traded. The rest of the day the stock tries to recover but by the end of the day it closes lower for the day. This is a systematic effort and won't stop until there's reason to buy. Obviously sales will help, but if MNKD/SNY give weak numbers forecasts, this is just be more ammo for the shorts. It seems milestones are being discounted by the market since they aren't something which is continuous like sales. MNKD will have a better balance sheet, but that's not why investors should buy the stock. So if there's not sales to drive the price up, maybe some surprise news will help? It seems the rumors of Medtronic buying Technosphere has dried up. Maybe once Medtronic is done with the acquisition of Covidien (Corporate Inversion) (1st qtr 2015?) they will focus on Technosphere. Anyone else have additional rumor/information about this? So at the close yesterday, there were 800k shares available to borrow to short at Interactive Brokers, right after the open this morning with the spike down this is what it shows: Symbol: MNKD Availability: 200'000 Exchanges: NASDAQ So in effect 30 minutes into trading 1.2mill. shares traded and 600k (50%) of it were borrowed short from IB, this lends directly to what I highlighted in bold in your statement as every time they sell it on the open it is from borrowed shares, margin calls continue as the price weakens to new lows, this will end when those shares that were bought on margin are gone and the last long that can't take it bails. As far as the gap that Trend refers to, it is really 4.60 (the high the day before Adcom (3/31), that day it opened at 4.44 but hit a high of 4.60. Whether or not it fills remains to be seen, if the broader market makes new lows for this correction (200d on SPX is down around 1903 area today) then the pressure on margin calls will continue on the market as a whole. I was talking with someone the other day that has followed Al since Minimed, he is a "friends and family" holder, he was actually excited at the potential prospects of buying in the 4's again, different perspectives are all relative depending which way you look at the glass Thanks for the insight! I've been wondering what was behind this almost daily occurrence. So margin buyers are "helping" shorts? This is NOT a stock to use margin on! I think we all will be "lucky" enough to buy more under $5 soon. I also think there's no rush to do so...Nov might bring better "events" but Oct is looking rather gloomy. (fits with the Halloween theme!) |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Oct 7, 2014 10:33:34 GMT -5
Got one in mind specifically. I'm good at starting rumors |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 7, 2014 12:40:55 GMT -5
There is a bearish technical indicator with the charming name "Death Cross" (50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA). We just achieved it. Meanwhile, the Y2016 calls I hold are worth about half of what I paid stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=mnkd |
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Post by cybergym66 on Oct 7, 2014 13:08:08 GMT -5
There is a bearish technical indicator with the charming name "Death Cross" (50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA). We just achieved it. Meanwhile, the Y2016 calls I hold are worth about half of what I paid stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=mnkd I think if the market doesn't turn up (weaker market helping shorts) we'll see sub $5 within a week...at least that's my rumor. There has not been any relief rallies of more than a day since Aug. Sorry about your Calls. I have the same problem! I'm waiting to buy more Jan '16 Calls until I see a reversal (end of Nov/Beginning of Dec?). |
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Post by cybergym66 on Oct 7, 2014 13:12:36 GMT -5
Got one in mind specifically. I'm good at starting rumors If it's about MNKD selling Technosphere for GOBS of money... How about EU approval announcement? FDA approval for use of the MOUNTAIN of Insulin MNKD has in storage? (Profit margins get HUGE!) SNY bought 10% of MNKD Stock? Was I close? |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 7, 2014 13:58:53 GMT -5
I'm waiting to buy more Jan '16 Calls until I see a reversal (end of Nov/Beginning of Dec?). I think the Jan '17 Calls will be available on Oct. 13 for our consideration. We may need that extra year. |
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Post by mnkdorbust on Oct 7, 2014 14:14:05 GMT -5
There is a bearish technical indicator with the charming name "Death Cross" (50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA). We just achieved it. Meanwhile, the Y2016 calls I hold are worth about half of what I paid stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=mnkd I think if the market doesn't turn up (weaker market helping shorts) we'll see sub $5 within a week...at least that's my rumor. There has not been any relief rallies of more than a day since Aug. Sorry about your Calls. I have the same problem! I'm waiting to buy more Jan '16 Calls until I see a reversal (end of Nov/Beginning of Dec?). I'm holding out until it hits 4's to pick up more. I sure hope it doesn't but watching it take a quarter drop daily trying to refrain since i've been loading up from 7's down. Took my largest position before adcom but still in red. I'm a believer in Al, the technology and product(s) but not so much in the system (stock market, etc). Feeling a lot like Griswald from Vegas Vacation. Just for a laugh since nothing laughable about what is happening to the PPS this specific quote came to mind "You don't know when to quit, do ya Griswold?... Here's an idea: Why don't you give me half the money your were gonna to bet, then we'll go out back, I'll kick you in the nuts, and we'll call it a day!" |
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