|
Post by wgreystone on Feb 25, 2020 10:16:51 GMT -5
In my opinion, this was a rock solid conference call. The company is headed in the right direction with narrower focus on a few products, Afrezza, TreT and a handful of developmental products. The company is reducing costs which will help the company reach profitability sooner. TreT is a big big deal. When approved, it will pay for all of MannKind’s operations. Lastly, it has been years since I have heard that many questions from analysts and from so many different companies. Shorts attacked again this morning so nothing new there. I think this was a great call. What's your estimate of peak royalty from TreT?
|
|
|
Post by mcbone on Feb 25, 2020 10:21:56 GMT -5
I want to see Afrezza succeed in the marketplace FOR THE BENEFIT OF DIABETICS. That's why I have invested. If you're in it for any other reason, you will have rather a different perspective on your investment than I do. Everyone here wants Afrezza to succeed. The question is who can deliver it. MNKD current management can deliver --- at the current snail's pace of growth that will never result in shareholder value. Today's cc is just an admission that script growth will continue to be pitiful. Indeed, there was one slide that Peppy put up showing 1000 scripts at some point this year as a goal. Is that acceptable growth? Really? Anyone here invest in MNKD with the goal of Afrezza being a niche drug in a $6B mealtime insulin market?
|
|
|
Post by boytroy88 on Feb 25, 2020 10:32:20 GMT -5
That is just not true. We've got sufficient cash, no dilution expected, more Brazil orders, turned a profit, a narrower business focus and an excellent working partnership. What profit? Who was expecting dilution (this is still a question mark though)? $7.8M Afrezza sales in a $3B insulin market. Did MC tell you what's the expected growth rate this year? Quite a few posters have mentioned it here plus others on ST and SA.
|
|
|
Post by Chris-C on Feb 25, 2020 10:39:43 GMT -5
In my opinion, this was a rock solid conference call. The company is headed in the right direction with narrower focus on a few products, Afrezza, TreT and a handful of developmental products. The company is reducing costs which will help the company reach profitability sooner. TreT is a big big deal. When approved, it will pay for all of MannKind’s operations. Lastly, it has been years since I have heard that many questions from analysts and from so many different companies. Shorts attacked again this morning so nothing new there. I think this was a great call. I generally agree, but I think I'd use the term "good" rather than "great." I'm not surprised about the market response, as the relationship between share price and what goes on day to day in the company is and has been more random than systematic. This will continue to be the case until the company proves profitability and the short interest wanes. On this board, as a long time investor, it's easy to become jaded and want miracles and rabbits appearing from top hats.
One perspective might be that it is miraculous that the company is still in business, given its multiplicity of bad breaks —some self-inflicted, as for example, the ridiculous promise to purchase insulin in vast quantities from Amphastar that continues to weigh on the balance sheet today, or the failure to raise cash when the SP was near $10. Woulda, shoulda, coulda.
Of course, management is always keen to find ways to spin the story in a more positive light. For those entering at SP $1, the gains have been decent, but the loyalty tax with this company is heavy to those who endured the reverse split the CEO who openly dreamed of an "embarrassment of riches." (Perhaps he was talking about his retirement payout?)
On balance, I'm inclined to accumulate more as long as scripts keep tracking North and progress continues with UTH, Brazil and a pediatric filing. Those are positives and reveal a distant if still dim source of light at the end of the tunnel. Experienced investors know that patience is important, but this one is a test of the most patient of all. Longs from 2014 and earlier should stay focused and avoid the constant noise of habitual critics. I try to practice "Nate think."
Regards to all longs,
Chris-C
|
|
|
Post by wgreystone on Feb 25, 2020 10:53:04 GMT -5
What profit? Who was expecting dilution (this is still a question mark though)? $7.8M Afrezza sales in a $3B insulin market. Did MC tell you what's the expected growth rate this year? Quite a few posters have mentioned it here plus others on ST and SA. What matters is the expectation from wall street. But honestly between dilution and debt with 10% interest, I'd prefer dilution instead. The debt was a dangerous bet, especially if bear market finally comes.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2020 10:58:20 GMT -5
The numbers and trajectory are positive, but the elephant in the room remains to be CASH. Yes but their burn rate is down to $14 p/q which is $10M better than this time last year. Mike keeps driving cost out of their P&L which will bode well when Sales really ramp.
|
|
|
Post by thekid2499 on Feb 25, 2020 11:03:25 GMT -5
I think the sell-offs after conference calls like this are just the people who piled into MNKD in the run-up to the conference call hoping for some big news. Once that doesn't materialize, they sell and the price goes down.
|
|
|
Post by brentie on Feb 25, 2020 11:12:24 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by mango on Feb 25, 2020 11:14:42 GMT -5
I think the sell-offs after conference calls like this are just the people who piled into MNKD in the run-up to the conference call hoping for some big news. Once that doesn't materialize, they sell and the price goes down. Agree.
|
|
|
Post by awesomo on Feb 25, 2020 11:15:36 GMT -5
Looks like those executive insiders timed their sells well.
"Believe people's actions, not their words."
|
|
|
Post by ktim on Feb 25, 2020 11:55:32 GMT -5
Hope we get a breakout of Brazil revenue and some kind of a projection for those 2020 revenues. Of course Mike learned a cruel lesson about guidance/missing last year, but we need all the news we can get to get out of this share price rut. I think it was actually shareholders that thought Mike was a straight shooter that learned a cruel lesson with those projections.
|
|
|
Post by ktim on Feb 25, 2020 12:01:20 GMT -5
I think the sell-offs after conference calls like this are just the people who piled into MNKD in the run-up to the conference call hoping for some big news. Once that doesn't materialize, they sell and the price goes down. We often do have people "pumping" the conference calls, and a "dump" often follows a pump. Personally, I think hyping the conference calls is counter productive to attracting long term investors to MNKD shares, despite a huge opportunity for traders. But I'm already really excited and can't wait for the next CC, it is going to be epic. I'm sure there is already at least one huge deal done since this morning's CC
|
|
|
Post by awesomo on Feb 25, 2020 12:11:40 GMT -5
But I'm already really excited and can't wait for the next CC, it is going to be epic. I'm sure there is already at least one huge deal done since this morning's CC Forget the next CC, Mike is gonna drop that bomb at the Leerink conference in two days!
|
|
|
Post by ktim on Feb 25, 2020 12:14:30 GMT -5
What was the previous timeline Mango. I thought recently it was thought it would be 2 years until we could see revenues from Tret-T. What are your thoughts now as to when we would see income from sales of it? Timeline is progressing like it should. Many here speculated that it was/would take significantly longer than expected and even accused Mike of deception. Who? Can you show us the posts? It's always good to review predictions and see who is correct and who is wrong.
|
|
|
Post by mango on Feb 25, 2020 12:18:53 GMT -5
Timeline is progressing like it should. Many here speculated that it was/would take significantly longer than expected and even accused Mike of deception. Who? Can you show us the posts? It's always good to review predictions and see who is correct and who is wrong. No, I am not going to waste my time doing that. They know where they are. Sorry.
|
|