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Post by mymann on Feb 25, 2020 16:17:37 GMT -5
Last two CEOs couldn't get BP. One of them had to literally beg for anyone interested to call him. We get dismal attempt from the SNY. Current top clown talks the talk but can't walk the walk. CMO " veins of gold",and last CEO " embarrassment of riches".
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Post by mango on Feb 25, 2020 16:40:34 GMT -5
Last two CEOs couldn't get BP. One of them had to literally beg for anyone interested to call him. We get dismal attempt from the SNY. Current top clown talks the talk but can't walk the walk. CMO " veins of gold",and last CEO " embarrassment of riches". In Matthew Pfeffer's defense, I actually spent a decent amount of time tracking down what he actually said in regards to the "embarrassment or riches", and found that it was, and continues to be, taken completely out of context and used in a totally different way than how he used the phrase and intended it to he interpreted. Having said that, Matthew Pfeffer was responsible for the yellow card embarrassment, was he not? I remember receiving a few of those. Regardless, it was his call as CEO to do the R/S from, "a position of strength."
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Post by rfogel on Feb 25, 2020 18:01:59 GMT -5
I'm afraid I don't quite understand what the CEO meant with "We're going to complete a deep dive on the pediatric landscape assessment before we initiate the Phase 3 trial..."
What exactly does he mean? How long will this "dive" take?
Also, he said "And if you look at clinically, we beat the standard of care on 11 out of 13 drivers of mealtime control and why they choose one rapid-acting over another." What are these "drivers" that he's referring to?
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Post by ktim on Feb 25, 2020 18:09:11 GMT -5
Here are a few notes I made from the CC.
THE GOOD - Seems that UTHR INCREASE study will result in expanded WHO 3 indication on TreT label, with potential increase in revenue of 2x to 3x vs existing Tyvaso. - The data on COGS (slide 13) would seem to indicate that at high volume (assuming we're still a long ways from maxing out capacity of fixed cost infrastructure) the gross margin would be slightly less than 80%, which seems good and gives plenty of room for discounting to insurers to gain better placement. - I was generally impressed with details given to questions. Seems much more candid than in the past on several things. Though I do still take issue with level of candor around finances. - Strong statements about relatively low risk of TreT development. - Indian trial starting in April and only 3 month duration.
THE BAD - Implying that MidCap final $25M is still available without at all addressing the glaring gap in script trajectory meeting the required covenants. Seems like more Mike smoke and mirrors trying to imply cash is no longer a problem. - T2 new patient 2 month dropout rate is 50% (would be interesting how that compares with RAA)
THE OTHER - No Q4 Brazil shipment, some in Q1 and more in Q2. My guess would be only six $ figure in Q1. - At first it sounded like a dramatic narrowing of focus was in the works, but it seems they are still planning to broadly market TS and merely removing 4 APIs from pipeline candidates? Anybody have a different read? - Multiple mentions to "free goods" including that they represent 15% of scripts and 20% of revenue. At first I thought that might be the "almost free" Eagle discounted sales, but the comment about % of revenue seems to indicate a rebate program rather than discount. Do they still have cards for free samples for new patients? Does anyone know? Would have liked for some explanation since this is first CC I remember use of "free goods" in discussion. - Only 3% of targeted docs have written any Afrezza prescription. I almost included this in "the bad" but of course Mike spun this as meaning still a lot of opportunity, which may be true, but also demonstrates just how much of an uphill battle this is getting docs to even give Afrezza a try. - In mention of BluHale it was entirely the Pro version to be used for in clinic training. No mention of consumer version or development with OneDrop. I thought MNKD management had long ago led us to believe BluHale was available to clinics. Great that this will be getting to docs finally if it hasn't been, but seems a lot of hyping and shifting story with regard to BluHale. - Launching patient training pilot. Great? We haven't had a patient training program? A pilot? How long until the real thing? - Mike stated a personal belief that peds would be game changing, but they seem to be spending money to assess the extent that is accurate. - 25% of NRx are new patients. - Indian trial doesn't seem to be with CGM and will be only 50-100 patients. - Under 7yo designation for peds is not being pursued. - Design of peds study will take another 3-6 months.
Please, if I misheard anything, reply with corrections.
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Post by Omega on Feb 25, 2020 18:53:36 GMT -5
Is anyone able to explain what the United Therapeutics warrant purchase in Q3 2019 means? Yea what is that? This is the first i've heard of anything related to UTHR and Warrants
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Post by mango on Feb 25, 2020 19:46:21 GMT -5
Is anyone able to explain what the United Therapeutics warrant purchase in Q3 2019 means? Yea what is that? This is the first i've heard of anything related to UTHR and Warrants The plot thickens... Honestly surprised no one has commented on it yet...my guess very few, if any, knew about it. Could be wong though...
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Post by letitride on Feb 25, 2020 20:21:33 GMT -5
Just finished listening not exactly elated, not disappointed. Financials keep getting better more money in, less money out. Looks like a stable keel but a continued long haul ahead thru 2020.
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Post by mango on Feb 25, 2020 20:34:15 GMT -5
My guess is, the fact that United Therapeutics bought MannKind warrants in Q3 2019 is a bullish sign.
Perhaps a grand foreshadowing of things to come...
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Post by brotherm1 on Feb 25, 2020 20:52:55 GMT -5
How do you figure that Mango?
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Post by mango on Feb 25, 2020 20:57:15 GMT -5
How do you figure that Mango? We are partnered with UT. As longliner said, a benevolent warrant holder would be a major change. UT helped MannKind raise money and went out of their way to buy MannKind warrants to do it. Hugely bullish, IMO. UT is in this for the long haul.
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Post by awesomo on Feb 25, 2020 21:01:49 GMT -5
It’s $400,000, hardly a major investment. Add another few zeros on that and you may have something.
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Post by brotherm1 on Feb 25, 2020 21:03:38 GMT -5
why would they not have instead bought shares from us and at the market price instead of warrants?
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Post by mango on Feb 25, 2020 21:45:30 GMT -5
why would they not have instead bought shares from us and at the market price instead of warrants? No clue. "Warrants are sold by companies as a way to raise capital. Although a company could sell stock to raise money, the Securities and Exchange Commission regulates the number of shares a company is allowed to issue. Some companies will issue warrants as a way to sweeten a deal during a takeover or restructuring." smallbusiness.chron.com/companies-issue-warrants-59774.html
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Post by brotherm1 on Feb 25, 2020 21:50:37 GMT -5
hahaha. o-h-h-h my. here we go..... 🤔
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Post by longliner on Feb 25, 2020 21:53:14 GMT -5
hahaha. o-h-h-h my. here we go..... 🤔 It's just an article.
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