|
Post by ktim on Feb 25, 2020 12:26:37 GMT -5
Does Mike really "Expect" that he will meet the covenants to qualify for MidCap final $25M tranche? That would certainly be news as it implies significant increase in script trajectory. Don't suppose anyone asked him that question. Though I'm guessing the answer would be some sort of weasel that the expectation is that it "currently" remains a distant theoretical possibility (whose probability seems almost zero).
|
|
|
Post by ktim on Feb 25, 2020 12:30:47 GMT -5
Who? Can you show us the posts? It's always good to review predictions and see who is correct and who is wrong. No, I am not going to waste my time doing that. They know where they are. Sorry. I do remember some one off post months ago questioning whether UTHR was still committed to TreT, but I don't recall anyone giving timelines that are longer than what we currently seem to have. You could simply be mistaken about that. Possibility I am as well, but since I wouldn't even know whose comments to look at to try to confirm what you say, I guess we'll have to leave it at unsubstantiated assertion.
|
|
|
Post by mango on Feb 25, 2020 12:31:44 GMT -5
No, I am not going to waste my time doing that. They know where they are. Sorry. I do remember some one off post months ago questioning whether UTHR was still committed to TreT, but I don't recall anyone giving timelines that are longer than what we currently seem to have. You could simply be mistaken about that. Possibility I am as well, but since I wouldn't even know whose comments to look at to try to confirm what you say, I guess we'll have to leave it at unsubstantiated assertion. 👌
|
|
|
Post by neil36 on Feb 25, 2020 12:37:28 GMT -5
Does Mike really "Expect" that he will meet the covenants to qualify for MidCap final $25M tranche? That would certainly be news as it implies significant increase in script trajectory. Don't suppose anyone asked him that question. Though I'm guessing the answer would be some sort of weasel that the expectation is that it remains a distant theoretical possibility. I did a back-o-napkin MidCap model a couple weeks ago and concluded that to stay compliant with the covenants between now and July, Afrezza retail sales need to AVERAGE $1.33 million per week, which is reasonably possible. Brazil is the wild card, but I think most of us view Brazil revenue as a rounding error until proven otherwise. To qualify for the third tranche by July, my “napkin model” concluded that Afrezza retail sales would have to AVERAGE $1.9 million per week. I see that as quite unlikely. It might be an easier bar to get over to qualify by the end of September, since the threshold doesn’t increase again until October, but there would still need to be a very strong increase in slope to the sales for that to happen.
|
|
|
Post by ktim on Feb 25, 2020 12:50:35 GMT -5
Everyone here wants Afrezza to succeed. The question is who can deliver it. Doesn't appear that way to me. Not everyone I have read on this and other boards wants this product to succeed. Constructive criticism aside, which is essential to keeping management on its toes, several posts are clearly inimical to the success of this product. I remember posts on other sites years ago I'd say were inimical to the success of Afrezza... i.e. asserting false safety concerns, etc. I really don't remember those being very prevalent here. I don't think stating facts such as "doctors largely look for published clinical results to make prescribing decisions" are inimical to the success. That's like saying that telling a kid he has to go to med school to become a doctor is inimical to kids aspiring to be doctors.
|
|
|
Post by thekid2499 on Feb 25, 2020 13:42:21 GMT -5
As a shareholder since 2012, the bullet on the 2019 Achievements slide re: 22% shareholder return really, really, really pisses me off. You should not just put that in there when it serves your purpose. What would that bullet have looked like the vast majority of the past recent years? It would have looked embarrassing. That bullet does not sit well with me at all. It's self serving and really tone deaf.
|
|
|
Post by od on Feb 25, 2020 13:59:15 GMT -5
The numbers and trajectory are positive, but the elephant in the room remains to be CASH. Yes but their burn rate is down to $14 p/q which is $10M better than this time last year. Mike keeps driving cost out of their P&L which will bode well when Sales really ramp. "...when Sales really ramp." And that will be when?
|
|
|
Post by mango on Feb 25, 2020 14:00:26 GMT -5
Is anyone able to explain what the United Therapeutics warrant purchase in Q3 2019 means?
|
|
|
Post by mymann on Feb 25, 2020 14:12:40 GMT -5
I think I heard the fat lady sing at the end of the conference call. I don't no if I just want to cry or laugh at the clowns trying to keep their gravy train jobs.
|
|
|
Post by hellodolly on Feb 25, 2020 14:12:59 GMT -5
The numbers and trajectory are positive, but the elephant in the room remains to be CASH. Yes but their burn rate is down to $14 p/q which is $10M better than this time last year. Mike keeps driving cost out of their P&L which will bode well when Sales really ramp. This is being so downplayed...like you're some kind of ghost or something.
|
|
|
Post by bill on Feb 25, 2020 14:19:15 GMT -5
I think MNKD should seriously consider avoiding any future conference calls since they invariably destroy the share price for weeks... Skipping them can't be any worse than having them.
|
|
|
Post by brotherm1 on Feb 25, 2020 14:20:12 GMT -5
I think I heard the fat lady sing at the end of the conference call. I don't no if I just want to cry or laugh at the clowns trying to keep their gravy train jobs. Please explain
|
|
|
Post by brotherm1 on Feb 25, 2020 14:22:32 GMT -5
Yes but their burn rate is down to $14 p/q which is $10M better than this time last year. Mike keeps driving cost out of their P&L which will bode well when Sales really ramp. This is being so downplayed...like you're some kind of ghost or something. What are you implying? Are you saying the burn rate is /was not $14M this past quarter?
|
|
|
Post by neil36 on Feb 25, 2020 15:53:11 GMT -5
Quick observations:
2019 Interest expense $10.9 million (which should be lower in 2020 for a number of reasons) 2019 R&D $6.9 million 2019 SG&A. $74.7 million
Just these three items total $92.5 million, for a rate of $1.78 million per week
Current Afrezza retail sales average $1.3 million per week, of which about $550,000 per week goes to MNKD The two UHTR milestone payments equate to a cash-flow equivalent of another $480,000 per week for 2020
|
|
|
Post by sla55 on Feb 25, 2020 16:02:08 GMT -5
|
|