|
Post by falconquest on Nov 23, 2020 13:55:50 GMT -5
falcon is such a cry baby because he only has 2 shares. He thought it was going down today ... which means. He is WRONG ... and not WONG. (my daughter is laughing at you) But, that's mytakeonit If anyone was going to offer an "unrelated comment" it would be you. Thanks for sharing nothing of value.
|
|
|
Post by mnkdfann on Nov 23, 2020 14:05:10 GMT -5
Ok, so we continue to see a rate of increase in the share price that is quite out of character for Mannkind. Sure, they recently received the milestone payment from UTHR which should have been baked in. However, we are still facing the prospect of dilution coming up soon so what is driving this share price? Don't get me wrong I think it is great, I just wonder what is behind it. Without some plausible explanation I fear it may retreat at an even faster rate than the increase. So if we could leave aside any unrelated comments, I would like to see legitimate ideas on what has changed. Why now? If, as a group we can't put our finger on it then that says something as well. Did you miss this (be sure to read more than the first post or two): mnkd.proboards.com/thread/12349/penny-stocks-buy So we know someone paid money to that newsletter to hopefully goose the MNKD share price. Who and why, those are the questions. Coincidentally (imo), that came out the same week the Pfizer vaccine news gave a boost to the markets overall, followed shortly after by Moderna, and now AstroZeneca. Right now, it looks like the markets are in melt-up mode. I think the test will be how MNKD reacts once the vaccine euphoria wanes a bit.
|
|
|
Post by casualinvestor on Nov 23, 2020 14:22:01 GMT -5
Cash and cash equivalents of $52.4 million at September 30, 2020
+12.5M milestone payment +20-50M (numbers are my own guess) factory sale/leaseback -? payback of MidCap loan (how much does MNKD have borrowed? I put it at $50M, and the company is required to have $40M in reserve) in order to do the sale/leaseback.
$10M burn every Quarter in 2020. Yes, they have really tightened the belt from when we were TV advertising Afrezza and burning ~9M/month
Trep-T manufacturing revenue will precede royalties
I don't see dilution happening outside of using the ATM
|
|
|
Post by cretin11 on Nov 23, 2020 15:07:04 GMT -5
falcon is such a cry baby because he only has 2 shares. He thought it was going down today ... which means. He is WRONG ... and not WONG. (my daughter is laughing at you) But, that's mytakeonit If anyone was going to offer an "unrelated comment" it would be you. Thanks for sharing nothing of value. But the “nothing of value comment” is MTOI’s go to move! And thatseveryonestakeonit
|
|
|
Post by cretin11 on Nov 23, 2020 15:11:28 GMT -5
Ok, so we continue to see a rate of increase in the share price that is quite out of character for Mannkind. Sure, they recently received the milestone payment from UTHR which should have been baked in. However, we are still facing the prospect of dilution coming up soon so what is driving this share price? Don't get me wrong I think it is great, I just wonder what is behind it. Without some plausible explanation I fear it may retreat at an even faster rate than the increase. So if we could leave aside any unrelated comments, I would like to see legitimate ideas on what has changed. Why now? If, as a group we can't put our finger on it then that says something as well. Did you miss this (be sure to read more than the first post or two): mnkd.proboards.com/thread/12349/penny-stocks-buy So we know someone paid money to that newsletter to hopefully goose the MNKD share price. Who and why, those are the questions. Coincidentally (imo), that came out the same week the Pfizer vaccine news gave a boost to the markets overall, followed shortly after by Moderna, and now AstroZeneca. Right now, it looks like the markets are in melt-up mode. I think the test will be how MNKD reacts once the vaccine euphoria wanes a bit. Excellent point. I wonder how long the effect from those boiler room paid articles usually lasts? I agree it is a coincidence (a helpful one) that the encouraging vaccine news came out around the same time. We do seem to be in a melt up mode for markets, especially stocks with any possible covid treatment connection.
|
|
|
Post by falconquest on Nov 23, 2020 15:11:57 GMT -5
Ok, so we continue to see a rate of increase in the share price that is quite out of character for Mannkind. Sure, they recently received the milestone payment from UTHR which should have been baked in. However, we are still facing the prospect of dilution coming up soon so what is driving this share price? Don't get me wrong I think it is great, I just wonder what is behind it. Without some plausible explanation I fear it may retreat at an even faster rate than the increase. So if we could leave aside any unrelated comments, I would like to see legitimate ideas on what has changed. Why now? If, as a group we can't put our finger on it then that says something as well. Did you miss this (be sure to read more than the first post or two): mnkd.proboards.com/thread/12349/penny-stocks-buy So we know someone paid money to that newsletter to hopefully goose the MNKD share price. Who and why, those are the questions. Coincidentally (imo), that came out the same week the Pfizer vaccine news gave a boost to the markets overall, followed shortly after by Moderna, and now AstroZeneca. Right now, it looks like the markets are in melt-up mode. I think the test will be how MNKD reacts once the vaccine euphoria wanes a bit. I saw that but didn't get what Castagna was talking about......"our focus remains on two significant drivers of value for shareholders: enabling healthcare providers to increase their prescribing of Afrezza" (how?) I get the Treprostinil part that followed but I also didn't understand this....."The company plans to expand the Afrezza commercial and medical teams." What does that mean? It sounded like platitudes to me but perhaps I am just so soured on his performance that I dismissed it. So is he hiring more sales people? what does that second comment refer to?
|
|
|
Post by gamblerjag on Nov 23, 2020 17:14:06 GMT -5
Current share price of $3 and change still seems way undervalued to me in view of it really being only $0.61 if you factor in the reverse split. . To me if you’re going to figure in the reverse split scenario then you have to figure in the dilution scenario and follow market cap Which really wouldn’t be $.61 at all but about $1.50
|
|
|
Post by mnkdfann on Nov 23, 2020 17:34:42 GMT -5
Did you miss this (be sure to read more than the first post or two): mnkd.proboards.com/thread/12349/penny-stocks-buy So we know someone paid money to that newsletter to hopefully goose the MNKD share price. Who and why, those are the questions. Coincidentally (imo), that came out the same week the Pfizer vaccine news gave a boost to the markets overall, followed shortly after by Moderna, and now AstroZeneca. Right now, it looks like the markets are in melt-up mode. I think the test will be how MNKD reacts once the vaccine euphoria wanes a bit. I saw that but didn't get what Castagna was talking about......"our focus remains on two significant drivers of value for shareholders: enabling healthcare providers to increase their prescribing of Afrezza" (how?) I get the Treprostinil part that followed but I also didn't understand this....."The company plans to expand the Afrezza commercial and medical teams." What does that mean? It sounded like platitudes to me but perhaps I am just so soured on his performance that I dismissed it. So is he hiring more sales people? what does that second comment refer to? I think you are giving the targeted readership of that newsletter way too much credit. They are not likely to care what Castagna said, or parse what he meant. As sports wrote in the thread, "It’s a penny stock article which means it went out to the boiler rooms." They'll target novice and/or naive investors, who don't know the first thing (and frankly don't care to know) about inhaled insulin or TreT.
|
|
|
Post by goyocafe on Nov 23, 2020 17:42:45 GMT -5
Current share price of $3 and change still seems way undervalued to me in view of it really being only $0.61 if you factor in the reverse split. . To me if you’re going to figure in the reverse split scenario then you have to figure in the dilution scenario and follow market cap Which really wouldn’t be $.61 at all but about $1.50 I figured it out as approximately $1.83 $11 (market cap of 4 billion pre-split) / $18 (market cap of 4 billion now) = .61 x $3 = $1.83 Hope my math is correct. For anyone wanting to use shares instead, you cannot use a 1/5 ratio; it is now 1/1.63636363. So divide the current price by 1.63636363 or just multiply the current price (whatever it is) by .61.
|
|
|
Post by cretin11 on Nov 23, 2020 17:52:14 GMT -5
I saw that but didn't get what Castagna was talking about......"our focus remains on two significant drivers of value for shareholders: enabling healthcare providers to increase their prescribing of Afrezza" (how?) I get the Treprostinil part that followed but I also didn't understand this....."The company plans to expand the Afrezza commercial and medical teams." What does that mean? It sounded like platitudes to me but perhaps I am just so soured on his performance that I dismissed it. So is he hiring more sales people? what does that second comment refer to? I think you are giving the targeted readership of that newsletter way too much credit. They are not likely to care what Castagna said, or parse what he meant. As sports wrote in the thread, "It’s a penny stock article which means it went out to the boiler rooms." They'll target novice and/or naive investors, who don't know the first thing (and frankly don't care to know) about inhaled insulin or TreT. True, that is the target audience. So the question is whether that audience of novice and naive investors is partly to credit for this run up.
|
|
|
Post by sportsrancho on Nov 23, 2020 17:54:30 GMT -5
I agree with all the positive points, I’m going to add one. LQDA seems be in a pickle. Ask Mango:-)
Negative point, we are going to miss the covenants... some thing is going to have to be renegotiated with mid-cap.
Personally I don’t trust it. I’m going to wait till next year around March to take profits off my other stocks and buy more shares if appropriate.
|
|
|
Post by sportsrancho on Nov 23, 2020 17:57:37 GMT -5
I think you are giving the targeted readership of that newsletter way too much credit. They are not likely to care what Castagna said, or parse what he meant. As sports wrote in the thread, "It’s a penny stock article which means it went out to the boiler rooms." They'll target novice and/or naive investors, who don't know the first thing (and frankly don't care to know) about inhaled insulin or TreT. True, that is the target audience. So the question is whether that audience of novice and naive investors is partly to credit for this run up. I am pretty sure they are :-) Being on Stocktwits you see the traders come in ..you see the Robin-Hood kids, the chasers, the bitcoin people and penny stock people. But also you see Long’s adding.
|
|
|
Post by mango on Nov 23, 2020 18:30:29 GMT -5
• Everyone is expecting positive TreT results and there’s really no reason not to. Phase 3 is suppose to end in December and FDA filing Q1 2021.
• Liquidia will most likely not get a tentative approval tomorrow on their PDUFA due to FDA travel restrictions preventing them from the required inspections on Liquidia’s two US manufacturing facilities (this is directly from Liquidia IR as well as from CCs). Additionally, FDA is precluded from approving LIQ861 NDA for 30 months, absent an unfavorable judgement to UT by the court (court trial is scheduled for March 2022).
• UT is using TreT for two additional indications, COPD-PH and ILD-PH, and plans to launch in 2023. This will add probably an additional $50M in annual royalties bringing the combined total to ~$100M annually. We will also have 3 years exclusivity and zero competition as we will be the only FDA approved product for WHO Group 3.
• MannKind will receive manufacturing margins from UT for manufacture of TreT
• MannKind will initiate Phase 1 Sumatriptan in 2021
• MannKind is progressing with Dornase Alfa and Tobramycin formulation work, likely to complete preclinical work next year
• A second UT molecule is 100% coming. Most likely next year.
• Lease buy back of the Danbury plant is very bullish.
• Our balance sheet looks better and better
• Afrezza sales are slowly growing
• COVID-19 opportunities are still in play
• RLS is progressing and will be a huge wild card. Tick tock
• Most likely Martine Rothblatt has garnered some fresh eyes and investors into MannKind with all the positive pumping every single CC and presentation.
• We are severely undervalued and our story is permanently changing for the better.
That’s all I got for now.
|
|
|
Post by golfeveryday on Nov 23, 2020 18:31:21 GMT -5
I agree with all the positive points, I’m going to add one. LQDA seems be in a pickle. Ask Mango:-) Negative point, we are going to miss the covenants... some thing is going to have to be renegotiated with mid-cap. Personally I don’t trust it. I’m going to wait till next year around March to take profits off my other stocks and buy more shares if appropriate. personally, I think March will be too late
|
|
|
Post by gamblerjag on Nov 23, 2020 18:37:03 GMT -5
I would agree. I just was going for the easier math.
|
|