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Post by sportsrancho on Nov 23, 2020 18:39:51 GMT -5
I agree with all the positive points, I’m going to add one. LQDA seems be in a pickle. Ask Mango:-) Negative point, we are going to miss the covenants... some thing is going to have to be renegotiated with mid-cap. Personally I don’t trust it. I’m going to wait till next year around March to take profits off my other stocks and buy more shares if appropriate. personally, I think March will be too late 🤣 Too late for what ..hopefully we’ll all be in the stock for years to come. I’ve got other stocks that are going up faster than this one. I don’t have extra funds to be in everything at once, so I have to take profits and reposition. I have shares what I’m waiting for is to buy 2023 calls next year. If you think we’re getting bought out then I don’t care to be in for a 35% premium. I do not believe that that is happening. JMHO
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Post by golfeveryday on Nov 23, 2020 18:47:13 GMT -5
personally, I think March will be too late 🤣 Too late for what ..hopefully we’ll all be in the stock for years to come. I’ve got other stocks that are going up faster than this one. I don’t have extra funds to be in everything at once, so I have to take profits and reposition. I have shares what I’m waiting for is to buy 2023 calls next year. If you think we’re getting bought out then I don’t care to be in for a 35% premium. I do not believe that that is happening. JMHO I just think a slow run up has begun and March will be much higher. Time will tell.
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Post by uvula on Nov 23, 2020 19:00:29 GMT -5
Love mango's list but I disagree about the lease buyback being a bullish sign. (It isn't necessarily a bad thing but I don't understand how it could be a bullish sign.)
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Post by neil36 on Nov 23, 2020 19:16:06 GMT -5
Cash and cash equivalents of $52.4 million at September 30, 2020 +12.5M milestone payment +20-50M (numbers are my own guess) factory sale/leaseback -? payback of MidCap loan (how much does MNKD have borrowed? I put it at $50M, and the company is required to have $40M in reserve) in order to do the sale/leaseback. $10M burn every Quarter in 2020. Yes, they have really tightened the belt from when we were TV advertising Afrezza and burning ~9M/month Trep-T manufacturing revenue will precede royalties I don't see dilution happening outside of using the ATM Just to daydream a little, go to Yahoo! Finance and click on “Statistics” for PLUG. Yes, it’s fuel cell technology, but: - PLUG’s market cap has gone from $650 million to $10 billion in fourteen months. - Its still losing money so no P/E ratio - 400 million shares outstanding, with 17% short Yes, they have lots more cash and much bigger revenues, but it shows how fast a market cap can explode when the narrative changes. <<sigh>>
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Post by mango on Nov 23, 2020 19:18:14 GMT -5
That was probably the wrong adjective. I think it is positive, and here’s why.
• It’ll provide free cash flow while still giving us direct access to our equipment, without affecting the businesses’ profits or going into debt.
• MannKind will no longer have to be concerned about the cost of maintenance and repair of the equipment and facility.
• With the lease contract the responsibility of facility and equipment maintenance will fall to the leasing company.
• Leasing opens opportunities for equipment upgrades. When the lease contract expires the leasing company will most likely give MannKind the choice to renew the contract with the existing equipment, or take advantage of any upgraded models instead. This is common practice in these sorts of lease buy backs involving equipment.
• The value depreciation of equipment will no longer be a concern with a lease buyback. MannKind can deduct the lease payments as a business expense, regardless of any depreciation in value
• If new equipment is needed, MannKind will not have to get business loan or worry about going into greater debt with an existing line of credit, the lease buyback would provide the capital needed.
I am sure there’s more but there is very few disadvantages to a lease buy back.
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Post by sportsrancho on Nov 23, 2020 19:37:09 GMT -5
Good points.
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Post by kc on Nov 23, 2020 19:48:24 GMT -5
Been waiting over six years for Matt's comment to come true. I sure hope it does this time Whats behind it??? Al Mann told me MNKD was bigger than MiniMed. I am still waiting. Have you forgotten the all time MNKD classic statement? Who knows maybe C19 will prove Matt right "To some extent, we're suffering from an embarrassment of riches. There are so many things that could potentially benefit from this delivery technology. We want to make sure we pick the right ones and to be frank we are quite proud of the fact over the last couple of years that we made a promise or commitment, we've kept that promise and commitment and when we did it, when we said we're going to do it and we'd like to keep that up. So we want to make sure these plans are more fully baked before we roll them out to the investing public." Matthew Pfeffer- 9/9/2014
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Post by uvula on Nov 23, 2020 20:08:52 GMT -5
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Post by mango on Nov 23, 2020 20:12:04 GMT -5
I basically just regurgitated what I’ve read. There very well may be some consequences/risks to this. I don’t pretend to be an expert on the subject.
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Post by radgray68 on Nov 23, 2020 20:29:04 GMT -5
Somebody already said it in another post. Mannkind was priced for bankruptcy. Now, it has become apparent that we will not be going bankrupt.
$3 Billion shareholders have invested so far to build this company/platform.
300 million outstanding shares, give or take on the ATM.
That's a $10/share MINIMUM STARTING POINT for valuation. (didn't somebody, maybe Nate, say it's a steal under $10) Add in the value of the pipeline and growth multiples after that. All IMHO, of course
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Post by uvula on Nov 23, 2020 20:34:11 GMT -5
Posters lose all credibility when they still talk about pre-split stock price or mention the billions that Al spent. Neither are relevant to current valuation. I guess I should add the billions investors have spent on this stock to this list.
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Post by goyocafe on Nov 23, 2020 20:38:20 GMT -5
Considering the large NOLs, the first number of years of profitability will have a very nice tax advantage which should also help support a higher valuation.
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Post by awesomo on Nov 23, 2020 20:38:45 GMT -5
Somebody already said it in another post. Mannkind was priced for bankruptcy. Now, it has become apparent that we will not be going bankrupt. $3 Billion shareholders have invested so far to build this company/platform. 300 million outstanding shares, give or take on the ATM. That's a $10/share MINIMUM STARTING POINT for valuation. (didn't somebody, maybe Nate, say it's a steal under $10) Add in the value of the pipeline and growth multiples after that. All IMHO, of course Yeah, umm, that's not how valuation works AT ALL.
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Post by falconquest on Nov 23, 2020 20:45:35 GMT -5
I saw that but didn't get what Castagna was talking about......"our focus remains on two significant drivers of value for shareholders: enabling healthcare providers to increase their prescribing of Afrezza" (how?) I get the Treprostinil part that followed but I also didn't understand this....."The company plans to expand the Afrezza commercial and medical teams." What does that mean? It sounded like platitudes to me but perhaps I am just so soured on his performance that I dismissed it. So is he hiring more sales people? what does that second comment refer to? I think you are giving the targeted readership of that newsletter way too much credit. They are not likely to care what Castagna said, or parse what he meant. As sports wrote in the thread, "It’s a penny stock article which means it went out to the boiler rooms." They'll target novice and/or naive investors, who don't know the first thing (and frankly don't care to know) about inhaled insulin or TreT. So I get that but those are still Castagna quotes are they not? So what the hell is talking about. Nothing in my mind.
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Post by mnkdfann on Nov 23, 2020 20:54:03 GMT -5
I think you are giving the targeted readership of that newsletter way too much credit. They are not likely to care what Castagna said, or parse what he meant. As sports wrote in the thread, "It’s a penny stock article which means it went out to the boiler rooms." They'll target novice and/or naive investors, who don't know the first thing (and frankly don't care to know) about inhaled insulin or TreT. So I get that but those are still Castagna quotes are they not? So what the hell is talking about. Nothing in my mind. Well, I don't know. Presumably Castagna's words appear in one of the recent transcripts (which are available at Seeking Alpha). I guess the discussion in those may shed some light on what he was talking about. I'm not motivated enough to dig 'em out right now.
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